Assessing the date of the global oil peak: the need to use 2P reserves

Combining geological knowledge with proved plus probable ('2P') oil discovery data indicates that over 60 countries are now past their resource-limited peak of conventional oil production. The data show that the global peak of conventional oil production is close. Many analysts who rely only on proved ('1P') oil reserves data draw a very different conclusion. But proved oil reserves contain no information about the true size of discoveries, being variously under-reported, over-reported and not reported. Reliance on 1P data has led to a number of misconceptions, including the notion that past oil forecasts were incorrect, that oil reserves grow very significantly due to technology gain, and that the global supply of oil is ensured provided sufficient investment is forthcoming to 'turn resources into reserves'. These misconceptions have been widely held, including within academia, governments, some oil companies, and organisations such as the IEA. In addition to conventional oil, the world contains large quantities of non-conventional oil. Most current detailed models show that past the conventional oil peak the non-conventional oils are unlikely to come on-stream fast enough to offset conventional's decline. To determine the extent of future oil supply constraints calculations are required to determine fundamental rate limits for the production of non-conventional oils, as well as oil from gas, coal and biomass, and of oil substitution. Such assessments will need to examine technological readiness and lead-times, as well as rate constraints on investment, pollution, and net-energy return. (C) 2007 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Global oil peaking: responding to the case for 'abundant supplies of oil'

This paper examines aspects of the case against global oil peaking, and in particular sets out to answer a viewpoint that the world can have abundant supplies of oil "for years to come". Arguments supporting the latter view include: past forecasts of oil shortage have proved incorrect, so current predictions should also be discounted; many modellers depend on Hubbert's analysis but this contained fundamental flaws; new oil supply will result from reserves growth and from the wider deployment of advanced extraction technology; and that the world contains large resources of unconventional oil that can come on-stream if the production of conventional oil declines. These arguments are examined in turn and shown to be incorrect, or to need setting into a broader context. The paper concludes therefore that such arguments cannot be used to rule out calculations that the resource-limited peak in the world's production of conventional oil will occur in the near term. Moreover, peaking of conventional oil is likely to impact the world's total availability of oil where the latter includes non-conventional oil and oil substitutes. (C) 2008 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Confocal imaging of pseudomonas syringae pv. phaseolicola colony development in bean reveals reduced multiplication of strains containing the genomic island PPHGI-1.

Pseudomonas syringae pv. phaseolicola is the seed borne causative agent of halo blight in the common bean Phaseolus vulgaris. Pseudomonas syringae pv. phaseolicola race 4 strain 1302A contains the avirulence gene hopAR1 (located on a 106-kb genomic island, PPHGI-1, and earlier named avrPphB), which matches resistance gene R3 in P. vulgaris cultivar Tendergreen (TG) and causes a rapid hypersensitive reaction (HR). Here, we have fluorescently labeled selected Pseudomonas syringae pv. phaseolicola 1302A and 1448A strains (with and without PPHGI-1) to enable confocal imaging of in-planta colony formation within the apoplast of resistant (TG) and susceptible (Canadian Wonder [CW]) P. vulgaris leaves. Temporal quantification of fluorescent Pseudomonas syringae pv. phaseolicola colony development correlated with in-planta bacterial multiplication (measured as CFU/ml) and is, therefore, an effective means of monitoring Pseudomonas syringae pv. phaseolicola endophytic colonization and survival in P. vulgaris. We present advances in the application of confocal microscopy for in-planta visualization of Pseudomonas syringae pv. phaseolicola colony development in the leaf mesophyll to show how the HR defense response greatly affects colony morphology and bacterial survival. Unexpectedly, the presence of PPHGI-1 was found to cause a reduction of colony development in susceptible P. vulgaris CW leaf tissue. We discuss the evolutionary consequences that the acquisition and retention of PPHGI-1 brings to Pseudomonas syringae pv. phaseolicola in planta.

Bacterial pathogen evolution: breaking news

The immense social and economic impact of bacterial pathogens, from drug-resistant infections in hospitals to the devastation of agricultural resources, has resulted in major investment to understand the causes and conse- quences of pathogen evolution. Recent genome se- quencing projects have provided insight into the evolution of bacterial genome structures; revealing the impact of mobile DNA on genome restructuring and pathogenicity. Sequencing of multiple genomes of relat- ed strains has enabled the delineation of pathogen evo- lution and facilitated the tracking of bacterial pathogens globally. Other recent theoretical and empirical studies have shown that pathogen evolution is significantly influenced by ecological factors, such as the distribution of hosts within the environment and the effects of co- infection. We suggest that the time is ripe for experi- mentalists to use genomics in conjunction with evolu- tionary ecology experiments to further understanding of how bacterial pathogens evolve.

Component processes of early reading, spelling, and narrative writing skills in Turkish: a longitudinal study

The study examined: (a) the role of phonological, grammatical, and rapid automatized naming (RAN) skills in reading and spelling development; and (b) the component processes of early narrative writing skills. Fifty-seven Turkish-speaking children were followed from Grade 1 to Grade 2. RAN was the most powerful longitudinal predictor of reading speed and its effect was evident even when previous reading skills were taken into account. Broadly, the phonological and grammatical skills made reliable contributions to spelling performance but their effects were completely mediated by previous spelling skills. Different aspects of the narrative writing skills were related to different processing skills. While handwriting speed predicted writing fluency, spelling accuracy predicted spelling error rate. Vocabulary and working memory were the only reliable longitudinal predictors of the quality of composition content. The overall model, however, failed to explain any reliable variance in the structural quality of the compositions