Bringing game theory to hypothesis testing: Establishing finite sample bounds on inference

Small sample properties are of fundamental interest when only limited data is avail-able. Exact inference is limited by constraints imposed by speci.c nonrandomizedtests and of course also by lack of more data. These e¤ects can be separated as we propose to evaluate a test by comparing its type II error to the minimal type II error among all tests for the given sample. Game theory is used to establish this minimal type II error, the associated randomized test is characterized as part of a Nash equilibrium of a .ctitious game against nature.We use this method to investigate sequential tests for the di¤erence between twomeans when outcomes are constrained to belong to a given bounded set. Tests ofinequality and of noninferiority are included. We .nd that inference in terms oftype II error based on a balanced sample cannot be improved by sequential sampling or even by observing counter factual evidence providing there is a reasonable gap between the hypotheses.

On equilibria in duopolies with finite strategy spaces

We will call a game a reachable (pure strategy) equilibria game if startingfrom any strategy by any player, by a sequence of best-response moves weare able to reach a (pure strategy) equilibrium. We give a characterizationof all finite strategy space duopolies with reachable equilibria. Wedescribe some applications of the sufficient conditions of the characterization.

Finite horizon bargaining and the consistent field

This paper explores the relationships between noncooperative bargaining games and the consistent value for non-transferable utility (NTU) cooperative games. A dynamic approach to the consistent value for NTU games is introduced: the consistent vector field. The main contribution of the paper is to show that the consistent field is intimately related to the concept of subgame perfection for finite horizon noncooperative bargaining games, as the horizon goes to infinity and the cost of delay goes to zero. The solutions of the dynamic system associated to the consistent field characterize the subgame perfect equilibrium payoffs of the noncooperative bargaining games. We show that for transferable utility, hyperplane and pure bargaining games, the dynamics of the consistent fields converge globally to the unique consistent value. However, in the general NTU case, the dynamics of the consistent field can be complex. An example is constructed where the consistent field has cyclic solutions; moreover, the finite horizon subgame perfect equilibria do not approach the consistent value.

Characterization of a new clinical yeast species, Candida tunisiensis sp. nov., isolated from a strain collection from Tunisian hospitals.

From a collection of yeast isolates isolated from patients in Tunisian hospitals between September 2006 and July 2010, the yeast strain JEY63 (CBS 12513), isolated from a 50-year-old male that suffered from oral thrush, could not be identified to the species level using conventional methods used in clinical laboratories. These methods include matrix-assisted laser desorption ionization-time of flight mass spectrometry (MALDI-TOF MS), germ tube formation, and the use of CHROMagar Candida and metabolic galleries. Sequence analysis of the nuclear rRNA (18S rRNA, 5.8S rRNA, and 26S rRNA) and internal transcribed spacer regions (ITS1 and ITS2) indicated that the ribosomal DNA sequences of this species were not yet reported. Multiple gene phylogenic analyses suggested that this isolate clustered at the base of the Dipodascaceae (Saccharomycetales, Saccharomycetes, and Ascomycota). JEY63 was named Candida tunisiensis sp. nov. according to several phenotypic criteria and its geographical origin. C. tunisiensis was able to grow at 42°C and does not form chlamydospores and hyphae but could grow as yeast and pseudohyphal forms. C. tunisiensis exhibited most probably a haploid genome with an estimated size of 10 Mb on at least three chromosomes. Using European Committee for Antimicrobial Susceptibility Testing (EUCAST) and Clinical and Laboratory Standards Institute (CLSI) Candida albicans susceptibility breakpoints as a reference, C. tunisiensis was resistant to fluconazole (MIC = 8 μg/ml), voriconazole (MIC = 0.5 μg/ml), itraconazole (MIC = 16 μg/ml), and amphotericin B (MIC = 4 μg/ml) but still susceptible to posaconazole (MIC = 0.008 μg/ml) and caspofungin (MIC = 0.5 μg/ml). In conclusion, MALDI-TOF MS permitted the early selection of an unusual isolate, which was still unreported in molecular databases but could not be unambiguously classified based on phylogenetic approaches.

Causal assessment in finite extensive-form games

Two finite extensive-form games are empirically equivalent when theempirical distribution on action profiles generated by every behaviorstrategy in one can also be generated by an appropriately chosen behaviorstrategy in the other. This paper provides a characterization ofempirical equivalence. The central idea is to relate a game's informationstructure to the conditional independencies in the empirical distributionsit generates. We present a new analytical device, the influence opportunitydiagram of a game, describe how such a diagram is constructed for a givenextensive-form game, and demonstrate that it provides a complete summaryof the information needed to test empirical equivalence between two games.

A finite-population revenue management model and a risk-ratio procedure for the joint estimation of population size and parameters

Many dynamic revenue management models divide the sale period into a finite number of periods T and assume, invoking a fine-enough grid of time, that each period sees at most one booking request. These Poisson-type assumptions restrict the variability of the demand in the model, but researchers and practitioners were willing to overlook this for the benefit of tractability of the models. In this paper, we criticize this model from another angle. Estimating the discrete finite-period model poses problems of indeterminacy and non-robustness: Arbitrarily fixing T leads to arbitrary control values and on the other hand estimating T from data adds an additional layer of indeterminacy. To counter this, we first propose an alternate finite-population model that avoids this problem of fixing T and allows a wider range of demand distributions, while retaining the useful marginal-value properties of the finite-period model. The finite-population model still requires jointly estimating market size and the parameters of the customer purchase model without observing no-purchases. Estimation of market-size when no-purchases are unobservable has rarely been attempted in the marketing or revenue management literature. Indeed, we point out that it is akin to the classical statistical problem of estimating the parameters of a binomial distribution with unknown population size and success probability, and hence likely to be challenging. However, when the purchase probabilities are given by a functional form such as a multinomial-logit model, we propose an estimation heuristic that exploits the specification of the functional form, the variety of the offer sets in a typical RM setting, and qualitative knowledge of arrival rates. Finally we perform simulations to show that the estimator is very promising in obtaining unbiased estimates of population size and the model parameters.

Modeling complex wells with the multi-scale finite-volume method

In this paper, an extension of the multi-scale finite-volume (MSFV) method is devised, which allows to Simulate flow and transport in reservoirs with complex well configurations. The new framework fits nicely into the data Structure of the original MSFV method,and has the important property that large patches covering the whole well are not required. For each well. an additional degree of freedom is introduced. While the treatment of pressure-constraint wells is trivial (the well-bore reference pressure is explicitly specified), additional equations have to be solved to obtain the unknown well-bore pressure of rate-constraint wells. Numerical Simulations of test cases with multiple complex wells demonstrate the ability of the new algorithm to capture the interference between the various wells and the reservoir accurately. (c) 2008 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Persistence and cell culturability of biocontrol strain Pseudomonas fluorescens CHA0 under plough pan conditions in soil and influence of the anaerobic regulator gene anr.

Certain fluorescent pseudomonads can protect plants from soil-borne pathogens, and it is important to understand how these biocontrol agents survive in soil. The persistence of the biocontrol strain Pseudomonas fluorescens CHA0-Rif under plough pan conditions was assessed in non-sterile soil microcosms by counting total cells (immunofluorescence microscopy), intact cells (BacLight membrane permeability test), viable cells (Kogure's substrate-responsiveness test) and culturable cells (colony counts on selective plates) of the inoculant. Viable but non-culturable cells of CHA0-Rif (106 cells g-1 soil) were found in flooded microcosms amended with fermentable organic matter, in which the soil redox potential was low (plough pan conditions), in agreement with previous observations of plough pan samples from a field inoculated with CHA0-Rif. However, viable but non-culturable cells were not found in unamended flooded, amended unflooded or unamended unflooded (i.e. control) microcosms, suggesting that such cells resulted from exposure of CHA0-Rif to a combination of low redox potential and oxygen limitation in soil. CHA0-Rif is strictly aerobic. Its anaerobic regulator ANR is activated by low oxygen concentrations and it controls production of the biocontrol metabolite hydrogen cyanide under microaerophilic conditions. Under plough pan conditions, an anr-deficient mutant of CHA0-Rif and its complemented derivative displayed the same persistence pattern as CHA0-Rif, indicating that anr was not implicated in the formation of viable but non-culturable cells of this strain at the plough pan.

Posttranscriptional repression of GacS/GacA-controlled genes by the RNA-binding protein RsmE acting together with RsmA in the biocontrol strain Pseudomonas fluorescens CHA0.

In the plant-beneficial soil bacterium Pseudomonas fluorescens CHA0, the production of biocontrol factors (antifungal secondary metabolites and exoenzymes) is controlled at a posttranscriptional level by the GacS/GacA signal transduction pathway involving RNA-binding protein RsmA as a key regulatory element. This protein is assumed to bind to the ribosome-binding site of target mRNAs and to block their translation. RsmA-mediated repression is relieved at the end of exponential growth by two GacS/GacA-controlled regulatory RNAs RsmY and RsmZ, which bind and sequester the RsmA protein. A gene (rsmE) encoding a 64-amino-acid RsmA homolog was identified and characterized in strain CHA0. Overexpression of rsmE strongly reduced the expression of target genes (hcnA, for a hydrogen cyanide synthase subunit; aprA, for the main exoprotease; and phlA, for a component of 2,4-diacetylphloroglucinol biosynthesis). Single null mutations in either rsmA or rsmE resulted in a slight increase in the expression of hcnA, aprA, and phlA. By contrast, an rsmA rsmE double mutation led to strongly increased and advanced expression of these target genes and completely suppressed a gacS mutation. Both the RsmE and RsmA levels increased with increasing cell population densities in strain CHA0; however, the amount of RsmA showed less variability during growth. Expression of rsmE was controlled positively by GacA and negatively by RsmA and RsmE. Mobility shift assays demonstrated specific binding of RsmE to RsmY and RsmZ RNAs. The transcription and stability of both regulatory RNAs were strongly reduced in the rsmA rsmE double mutant. In conclusion, RsmA and RsmE together account for maximal repression in the GacS/GacA cascade of strain CHA0.

Development of bioreporter assays for the detection of bioavailability of long-chain alkanes based on the marine bacterium Alcanivorax borkumensis strain SK2.

Long-chain alkanes are a major component of crude oil and therefore potentially good indicators of hydrocarbon spills. Here we present a set of new bacterial bioreporters and assays that allow to detect long-chain alkanes. These reporters are based on the regulatory protein AlkS and the alkB1 promoter from Alcanivorax borkumensis SK2, a widespread alkane degrader in marine habitats. Escherichia coli cells with the reporter construct reacted strongly to octane in short-term (6 h) aqueous suspension assays but very slightly only to tetradecane, in line with what is expected from its low water solubility. In contrast, long-term assays (up to 5 days) with A. borkumensis bioreporters showed strong induction with tetradecane and crude oil. Gel-immobilized A. borkumensis reporter cells were used to demonstrate tetradecane and crude oil bioavailability at a distance from a source. Alcanivorax borkumensis bioreporters induced fivefold more rapid and more strongly when allowed physical contact with the oil phase in standing flask assays, suggesting a major contribution of adhered cells to the overall reporter signal. Using the flask assays we further demonstrated the effect of oleophilic nutrients and biosurfactants on oil availability and degradation by A. borkumensis. The fluorescence signal from flask assays could easily be captured with a normal digital camera, making such tests feasible to be carried out on, e.g. marine oil responder vessels in case of oil accidents.

The course of malaria in mice: major histocompatibility complex (MHC) effects, but no general MHC heterozygote advantage in single-strain infections.

A general MHC-heterozygote advantage in parasite-infected organisms is often assumed, although there is little experimental evidence for this. We tested the response of MHC-congenic mice (F2 segregants) to malaria and found the course of infection to be significantly influenced by MHC haplotype, parasite strain, and host gender. However, the MHC heterozygotes did worse than expected from the average response of the homozygotes.

Analysis by optical absorption and transmission electron microscopy of the strain inhomogeneities in InGaAs/InP strained layers

Optical absorption spectra and transmission electron microscopy (TEM) observations on InGaAs/InP layers under compressive strain are reported. From the band¿gap energy dispersion, the magnitude of the strain inhomogeneities. Is quantified and its microscopic origin is analyzed in view of the layer microstructure. TEM observations reveal a dislocation network at the layer interface the density of which correlates with ¿¿. It is concluded that local variations of dislocation density are responsible for the inhomogeneous strain field together with another mechanism that dominates when the dislocation density is very low.