Markers Models in Survival Analysis and Applications to Issues Associated with AIDS

Jewell and Kalbfleisch (1992) consider the use of marker processes for applications related to estimation of the survival distribution of time to failure. Marker processes were assumed to be stochastic processes that, at a given point in time, provide information about the current hazard and consequently on the remaining time to failure. Particular attention was paid to calculations based on a simple additive model for the relationship between the hazard function at time t and the history of the marker process up until time t. Specific applications to the analysis of AIDS data included the use of markers as surrogate responses for onset of AIDS with censored data and as predictors of the time elapsed since infection in prevalent individuals. Here we review recent work on the use of marker data to tackle these kinds of problems with AIDS data. The Poisson marker process with an additive model, introduced in Jewell and Kalbfleisch (1992) may be a useful "test" example for comparison of various procedures.

Myoblast-seeded biodegradable scaffolds to prevent post-myocardial infarction evolution toward heart failure

OBJECTIVE(S): Even though the mechanism is not clearly understood, direct intramyocardial cell transplantation has demonstrated potential to treat patients with severe heart failure. We previously reported on the bioengineering of myoblast-based constructs. We investigate here the functional outcome of infarcted hearts treated by implantation of myoblast-seeded scaffolds. METHODS: Adult Lewis rats with echocardiography-confirmed postinfarction reduced ejection fraction (48.3% +/- 1.1%) were randomized to (1) implantation of myoblast-seeded polyurethane patches at the site of infarction (PU-MyoB, n = 11), (2) implantation of nonseeded polyurethane patches (PU, n = 11), (3) sham operation (Sham, n = 12), and (4) direct intramyocardial myoblast injection (MyoB, n = 11). Four weeks later, the functional assessment by echocardiography was repeated, and we additionally performed left ventricular catheterization plus histologic studies. RESULTS: The ejection fraction significantly decreased in the PU (39.1% +/- 2.3%; P = .02) and Sham (39.9% +/- 3.5%; P = .04) groups, whereas it remained stable in the PU-MyoB (48.4% +/- 3.1%) and MyoB (47.9% +/- 3.0%) groups during the observation time. Similarly, left ventricular contractility was significantly higher in groups PU-MyoB (4960 +/- 266 mm Hg/s) and MyoB (4748 +/- 304 mm Hg/s) than in groups PU (3909 +/- 248 mm Hg/s, P = .01) and Sham (4028 +/- 199 mm Hg/s, P = .01). Immunohistology identified a high density of myoblasts within the seeded scaffolds without any migration toward the host cardiac tissue and no evidence of cardiac cell differentiation. CONCLUSIONS: Myoblast-seeded polyurethane scaffolds prevent post-myocardial infarction progression toward heart failure as efficiently as direct intramyocardial injection. The immunohistologic analysis suggests that an indirect mechanism, potentially a paracrine effect, may be assumed.

Ozone and Mortality: A Meta-Analysis of Time-Series Studies and Comparison to a Multi-City Study (The National Morbidity, Mortality, and Air Pollution Study)

While many time-series studies of ozone and daily mortality identified positive associations,others yielded null or inconclusive results. We performed a meta-analysis of 144 effect estimates from 39 time-series studies, and estimated pooled effects by lags, age groups,cause-specific mortality, and concentration metrics. We compared results to estimates from the National Morbidity, Mortality, and Air Pollution Study (NMMAPS), a time-series study of 95 large U.S. cities from 1987 to 2000. Both meta-analysis and NMMAPS results provided strong evidence of a short-term association between ozone and mortality, with larger effects for cardiovascular and respiratory mortality, the elderly, and current day ozone exposure as compared to other single day lags. In both analyses, results were not sensitive to adjustment for particulate matter and model specifications. In the meta-analysis we found that a 10 ppb increase in daily ozone is associated with a 0.83 (95% confidence interval: 0.53, 1.12%) increase in total mortality, whereas the corresponding NMMAPS estimate is 0.25%(0.12, 0.39%). Meta-analysis results were consistently larger than those from NMMAPS,indicating publication bias. Additional publication bias is evident regarding the choice of lags in time-series studies, and the larger heterogeneity in posterior city-specific estimates in the meta-analysis, as compared with NMAMPS.

On Time Series Analysis of Public Health and Biomedical Data

A time series is a sequence of observations made over time. Examples in public health include daily ozone concentrations, weekly admissions to an emergency department or annual expenditures on health care in the United States. Time series models are used to describe the dependence of the response at each time on predictor variables including covariates and possibly previous values in the series. Time series methods are necessary to account for the correlation among repeated responses over time. This paper gives an overview of time series ideas and methods used in public health research.

Effect of echo time pair selection on quantitative analysis for adrenal tumor characterization with in-phase and opposed-phase MR imaging: initial experience

PURPOSE: To determine the effect of two pairs of echo times (TEs) for in-phase (IP) and opposed-phase (OP) 3.0-T magnetic resonance (MR) imaging on (a) quantitative analysis prospectively in a phantom study and (b) diagnostic accuracy retrospectively in a clinical study of adrenal tumors, with use of various reference standards in the clinical study. MATERIALS AND METHODS: A fat-saline phantom was used to perform IP and OP 3.0-T MR imaging for various fat fractions. The institutional review board approved this HIPAA-compliant study, with waiver of informed consent. Single-breath-hold IP and OP 3.0-T MR images in 21 patients (14 women, seven men; mean age, 63 years) with 23 adrenal tumors (16 adenomas, six metastases, one adrenocortical carcinoma) were reviewed. The MR protocol involved two acquisition schemes: In scheme A, the first OP echo (approximately 1.5-msec TE) and the second IP echo (approximately 4.9-msec TE) were acquired. In scheme B, the first IP echo (approximately 2.4-msec TE) and the third OP echo (approximately 5.8-msec TE) were acquired. Quantitative analysis was performed, and analysis of variance was used to test for differences between adenomas and nonadenomas. RESULTS: In the phantom study, scheme B did not enable discrimination among voxels that had small amounts of fat. In the clinical study, no overlap in signal intensity (SI) index values between adenomas and nonadenomas was seen (P < .05) with scheme A. However, with scheme B, no overlap in the adrenal gland SI-to-liver SI ratio between adenomas and nonadenomas was seen (P < .05). With scheme B, no overlap in adrenal gland SI index-to-liver SI index ratio between adenomas and nonadenomas was seen (P < .05). CONCLUSION: This initial experience indicates SI index is the most reliable parameter for characterization of adrenal tumors with 3.0-T MR imaging when obtaining OP echo before IP echo. When acquiring IP echo before OP echo, however, nonadenomas can be mistaken as adenomas with use of the SI index value.