931 resultados para Failure Probability
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In a randomised trial comparing early enteral feeding by gastric and post-pyloric routes, White and colleagues have shown that gastric feeding is possible and efficient in the vast majority of critically ill patients. But the authors' conclusion that gastric is equivalent to post-pyloric is true in only the least severe patients. Given the extra workload and costs, post-pyloric is now clearly indicated in case of gastric feeding failure.
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This paper discusses the analysis of cases in which the inclusion or exclusion of a particular suspect, as a possible contributor to a DNA mixture, depends on the value of a variable (the number of contributors) that cannot be determined with certainty. It offers alternative ways to deal with such cases, including sensitivity analysis and object-oriented Bayesian networks, that separate uncertainty about the inclusion of the suspect from uncertainty about other variables. The paper presents a case study in which the value of DNA evidence varies radically depending on the number of contributors to a DNA mixture: if there are two contributors, the suspect is excluded; if there are three or more, the suspect is included; but the number of contributors cannot be determined with certainty. It shows how an object-oriented Bayesian network can accommodate and integrate varying perspectives on the unknown variable and how it can reduce the potential for bias by directing attention to relevant considerations and distinguishing different sources of uncertainty. It also discusses the challenge of presenting such evidence to lay audiences.
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NT-proBNP, a marker of cardiac failure, has been shown to be stable in post mortem samples. The aim of this study was to assess the accuracy of NT-proBNP to detect heart failure in the forensic setting. One hundred sixty-eight consecutive autopsies were included in the study. NT-proBNP blood concentrations were measured using a chemiluminescent immunoassay kit. Cardiac failure was assessed by three independent forensic experts using macro- and microscopic findings complemented by information about the circumstances of body discovery and the known medical story. Area under the receiving operator curve was of 65.4% (CI 95%, from 57.1 to 73.7). Using a standard cut-off value of >220 pg/mL for NT-proBNP blood concentration, heart failure was detected with a sensitivity of 50.7% and a specificity of 72.6%. NT-proBNP vitreous humor values were well correlated to the ones measured in blood (r (2) = 0.658). Our results showed that NT-proBNP can corroborate the pathological findings in cases of natural death related to heart failure, thus, keeping its diagnostic properties passing from the ante mortem to the post mortem setting. Therefore, biologically inactive polypeptides like NT-proBNP seem to be stable enough to be used in forensic medicine as markers of cardiac failure, taking into account the sensitivity and specificity of the test.
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Some patients infected with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) who are experiencing antiretroviral treatment failure have persistent improvement in CD4+ T cell counts despite high plasma viremia. To explore the mechanisms responsible for this phenomenon, 2 parameters influencing the dynamics of CD4+ T cells were evaluated: death of mature CD4+ T cells and replenishment of the CD4+ T cell pool by the thymus. The improvement in CD4+ T cells observed in patients with treatment failure was not correlated with spontaneous, Fas ligand-induced, or activation-induced T cell death. In contrast, a significant correlation between the improvement in CD4+ T cell counts and thymic output, as assessed by measurement of T cell receptor excision circles, was observed. These observations suggest that increased thymic output contributes to the dissociation between CD4+ T cell counts and viremia in patients failing antiretroviral therapy and support a model in which drug-resistant HIV strains may have reduced replication rates and pathogenicity in the thymus.
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PURPOSE: The aim of this study was to assess the outcome in patients with penile cancer. METHODS AND MATERIALS: A total of 60 patients with penile carcinoma were included. Of the patients, 45 (n = 27) underwent surgery, and 51 underwent definitive (n = 29) or postoperative (n = 22) radiotherapy (RT). Median follow-up was 62 months. RESULTS: Median time to locoregional relapse was 14 months. Local failure was observed in 3 of 23 patients (13%) treated with surgery with or without postoperative RT vs. in 19 of 33 patients (56%) given organ-sparing treatment (p = 0.0008). Of 22 local failures, 16 (73%) were salvaged with surgery. Of the 33 patients treated with definitive RT (n = 29) and the 4 patients refusing RT after excisional biopsy, local control was obtained with organ preservation in 13 (39%). In the remaining 20, 4 patients with local failure underwent salvage conservatively, resulting in an ultimate penis preservation rate of 17 of 33 (52%) patients treated with definitive RT. The 5-year and 10-year probability of surviving with an intact penis was 43% and 26%, respectively. There was no survival difference between the patients treated with definitive RT and primary surgery (56% vs. 53%; p = 0.16). In multivariate analysis, independent factors influencing survival were N-classification and pathologic grade. Surgery was the only independent predictor for better local control. CONCLUSION: Based on our study findings, in patients with penile cancer, local control is superior with surgery. However, there is no difference in survival between patients treated with surgery and those treated with definitive RT, with 52% organ preservation.
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BACKGROUND: Microvascular decompression (MVD) is the reference technique for pharmacoresistant trigeminal neuralgia (TN). OBJECTIVE: To establish whether the safety and efficacy of Gamma Knife surgery for recurrent TN are influenced by prior MVD. METHODS: Between July 1992 and November 2010, 54 of 737 patients (45 of 497 with >1 year of follow-up) had a history of MVD (approximately half also with previous ablative procedure) and were operated on with Gamma Knife surgery for TN in the Timone University Hospital. A single 4-mm isocenter was positioned in the cisternal portion of the trigeminal nerve at a median distance of 7.6 mm (range, 3.9-11.9 mm) anterior to the emergence of the nerve. A median maximum dose of 85 Gy (range, 70-90 Gy) was delivered. RESULTS: The median follow-up time was 39.5 months (range, 14.1-144.6 months). Thirty-five patients (77.8%) were initially pain free in a median time of 14 days (range, 0-180 days), much lower compared with our global population of classic TN (P = .01). Their actuarial probabilities of remaining pain-free without medication at 3, 5, 7, and 10 years were 66.5%, 59.1%, 59.1%, and 44.3%. The hypoesthesia actuarial rate at 1 year was 9.1% and remained stable until 12 years (median, 8 months). CONCLUSION: Patients with previous MVD showed a significantly lower probability of initial pain cessation compared with our global population with classic TN (P = .01). The toxicity was low (only 9.1% hypoesthesia); furthermore, no patient reported bothersome hypoesthesia. However, the probability of maintaining pain relief without medication was 44.3% at 10 years, similar to our global series of classic TN (P = .85). ABBREVIATIONS: BNI, Barrow Neurological InstituteCI, confidence intervalCTN, classic trigeminal neuralgiaGKS, Gamma Knife surgeryHR, hazard ratioMVD, microvascular decompressionTN, trigeminal neuralgia.
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Background- Cardiac hypertrophy involves growth responses to a variety of stimuli triggered by increased workload. It is an independent risk factor for heart failure and sudden death. Mammalian target of rapamycin (mTOR) plays a key role in cellular growth responses by integrating growth factor and energy status signals. It is found in 2 structurally and functionally distinct multiprotein complexes called mTOR complex (mTORC) 1 and mTORC2. The role of each of these branches of mTOR signaling in the adult heart is currently unknown. Methods and Results- We generated mice with deficient myocardial mTORC1 activity by targeted ablation of raptor, which encodes an essential component of mTORC1, during adulthood. At 3 weeks after the deletion, atrial and brain natriuretic peptides and β-myosin heavy chain were strongly induced, multiple genes involved in the regulation of energy metabolism were altered, but cardiac function was normal. Function deteriorated rapidly afterward, resulting in dilated cardiomyopathy and high mortality within 6 weeks. Aortic banding-induced pathological overload resulted in severe dilated cardiomyopathy already at 1 week without a prior phase of adaptive hypertrophy. The mechanism involved a lack of adaptive cardiomyocyte growth via blunted protein synthesis capacity, as supported by reduced phosphorylation of ribosomal S6 kinase 1 and 4E-binding protein 1. In addition, reduced mitochondrial content, a shift in metabolic substrate use, and increased apoptosis and autophagy were observed. Conclusions- Our results demonstrate an essential function for mTORC1 in the heart under physiological and pathological conditions and are relevant for the understanding of disease states in which the insulin/insulin-like growth factor signaling axis is affected such as diabetes mellitus and heart failure or after cancer therapy.
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Gene expression often cycles between active and inactive states in eukaryotes, yielding variable or noisy gene expression in the short-term, while slow epigenetic changes may lead to silencing or variegated expression. Understanding how cells control these effects will be of paramount importance to construct biological systems with predictable behaviours. Here we find that a human matrix attachment region (MAR) genetic element controls the stability and heritability of gene expression in cell populations. Mathematical modeling indicated that the MAR controls the probability of long-term transitions between active and inactive expression, thus reducing silencing effects and increasing the reactivation of silent genes. Single-cell short-terms assays revealed persistent expression and reduced expression noise in MAR-driven genes, while stochastic burst of expression occurred without this genetic element. The MAR thus confers a more deterministic behavior to an otherwise stochastic process, providing a means towards more reliable expression of engineered genetic systems.
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RATIONALE: The myeloid differentiation factor (MyD)88/interleukin (IL)-1 axis activates self-antigen-presenting cells and promotes autoreactive CD4(+) T-cell expansion in experimental autoimmune myocarditis, a mouse model of inflammatory heart disease. OBJECTIVE: The aim of this study was to determine the role of MyD88 and IL-1 in the progression of acute myocarditis to an end-stage heart failure. METHODS AND RESULTS: Using alpha-myosin heavy chain peptide (MyHC-alpha)-loaded, activated dendritic cells, we induced myocarditis in wild-type and MyD88(-/-) mice with similar distributions of heart-infiltrating cell subsets and comparable CD4(+) T-cell responses. Injection of complete Freund's adjuvant (CFA) or MyHC-alpha/CFA into diseased mice promoted cardiac fibrosis, induced ventricular dilation, and impaired heart function in wild-type but not in MyD88(-/-) mice. Experiments with chimeric mice confirmed the bone marrow origin of the fibroblasts replacing inflammatory infiltrates and showed that MyD88 and IL-1 receptor type I signaling on bone marrow-derived cells was critical for development of cardiac fibrosis during progression to heart failure. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings indicate a critical role of MyD88/IL-1 signaling in the bone marrow compartment in postinflammatory cardiac fibrosis and heart failure and point to novel therapeutic strategies against inflammatory cardiomyopathy.
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There is much evidence for a causal relationship between salt intake and blood pressure (BP). The current salt intake in many countries is between 9 and 12 g/day. A reduction in salt intake to the recommended level of 5-6 g/day lowers BP in both hypertensive and normotensive individuals. A further reduction to 3-4 g/day has a much greater effect. Prospective studies and outcome trials have demonstrated that a lower salt intake is associated with a decreased risk of cardiovascular disease. Increasing evidence also suggests that a high salt intake is directly related to left ventricular hypertrophy (LVH) independent of BP. Both raised BP and LVH are important risk factors for heart failure. It is therefore possible that a lower salt intake could prevent the development of heart failure. In patients who already have heart failure, a high salt intake aggravates the retention of salt and water, thereby exacerbating heart failure symptoms and progression of the disease. A lower salt intake plays an important role in the management of heart failure. Despite this, currently there is no clear evidence on how far salt intake should be reduced in heart failure. Our personal view is that these patients should reduce their salt intake to <5 g/day, i.e. the maximum intake recommended by the World Health Organisation for all adults. If salt intake is successfully reduced, there may well be a need for a reduction in diuretic dosage.
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Given that clay-rich landslides may become mobilized, leading to rapid mass movements (earthflows and debris flows), they pose critical problems in risk management worldwide. The most widely proposed mechanism leading to such flow-like movements is the increase in water pore pressure in the sliding mass, generating partial or complete liquefaction. This solid-to-liquid transition results in a dramatic reduction of mechanical rigidity in the liquefied zones, which could be detected by monitoring shear wave velocity variations. With this purpose in mind, the ambient seismic noise correlation technique has been applied to measure the variation in the seismic surface wave velocity in the Pont Bourquin landslide (Swiss Alps). This small but active composite earthslide-earthflow was equipped with continuously recording seismic sensors during spring and summer 2010. An earthslide of a few thousand cubic meters was triggered in mid-August 2010, after a rainy period. This article shows that the seismic velocity of the sliding material, measured from daily noise correlograms, decreased continuously and rapidly for several days prior to the catastrophic event. From a spectral analysis of the velocity decrease, it was possible to determine the location of the change at the base of the sliding layer. These results demonstrate that ambient seismic noise can be used to detect rigidity variations before failure and could potentially be used to predict landslides.
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Background- An elevated resting heart rate is associated with rehospitalization for heart failure and is a modifiable risk factor in heart failure patients. We aimed to examine the association between resting heart rate and incident heart failure in a population-based cohort study of healthy adults without pre-existing overt heart disease. Methods and Results- We studied 4768 men and women aged ≥55 years from the population-based Rotterdam Study. We excluded participants with prevalent heart failure, coronary heart disease, pacemaker, atrial fibrillation, atrioventricular block, and those using β-blockers or calcium channel blockers. We used extended Cox models allowing for time-dependent variation of resting heart rate along follow-up. During a median of 14.6 years of follow-up, 656 participants developed heart failure. The risk of heart failure was higher in men with higher resting heart rate. For each increment of 10 beats per minute, the multivariable adjusted hazard ratios in men were 1.16 (95% confidence interval, 1.05-1.28; P=0.005) in the time-fixed heart rate model and 1.13 (95% confidence interval, 1.02-1.25; P=0.017) in the time-dependent heart rate model. The association could not be demonstrated in women (P for interaction=0.004). Censoring participants for incident coronary heart disease or using time-dependent models to account for the use of β-blockers or calcium channel blockers during follow-up did not alter the results. Conclusions- Baseline or persistent higher resting heart rate is an independent risk factor for the development of heart failure in healthy older men in the general population.
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Chronic renal failure (CRF) is associated with the development of secondary hyperparathyroidism and vascular calcifications. We evaluated the efficacy of PA21, a new iron-based noncalcium phosphate binder, in controlling phosphocalcic disorders and preventing vascular calcifications in uremic rats. Rats with adenine-diet-induced CRF were randomized to receive either PA21 0.5, 1.5, or 5% or CaCO3 3% in the diet for 4 weeks, and were compared with uremic and nonuremic control groups. After 4 weeks of phosphate binder treatment, serum calcium, creatinine, and body weight were similar between all CRF groups. Serum phosphorus was reduced with CaCO3 3% (2.06 mM; P ≤ 0.001), PA21 1.5% (2.29 mM; P < 0.05), and PA21 5% (2.21 mM; P ≤ 0.001) versus CRF controls (2.91 mM). Intact parathyroid hormone was strongly reduced in the PA21 5% and CaCO3 3% CRF groups to a similar extent (1138 and 1299 pg/ml, respectively) versus CRF controls (3261 pg/ml; both P ≤ 0.001). A lower serum fibroblast growth factor 23 concentration was observed in the PA21 5%, compared with CaCO3 3% and CRF, control groups. PA21 5% CRF rats had a lower vascular calcification score compared with CaCO3 3% CRF rats and CRF controls. In conclusion, PA21 was as effective as CaCO3 at controlling phosphocalcic disorders but superior in preventing the development of vascular calcifications in uremic rats. Thus, PA21 represents a possible alternative to calcium-based phosphate binders in CRF patients.
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Infection of total hip arthroplasties (THA) leads to significant long-termmorbidity and high healthcare costs. We evaluated the differentreasons for treatment failure using different surgical modalities in a12-year prosthetic joint infection cohort study.Method: All patients hospitalized at our institution with infected THAwere included either retrospectively (1999-2007) or prospectively(2008-2010). THA infection was defined as growth of the same microorganismin ≥2 tissue or synovial fluid culture, visible purulence, sinustract or acute inflammation on tissue histopathology. Outcome analysiswas performed at outpatient visits, followed by contacting patients,their relatives and/or treating physicians afterwards.Results: During the study period, 117 patients with THA were identified.We exclude 2 patients due to missing data. The median age was69 years (range, 33-102 years); 42% were women. THA was mainlyperformed for osteoarthritis (n = 84), followed by trauma (n = 22),necrosis (n = 4), dysplasia (n = 2), rheumatoid arthritis (n = 1), osteosarcoma(n = 1) and tuberculosis (n = 1). 28 infections occurred early(≤3 months), 25 delayed (3-24 months) and 63 late (≥24 months aftersurgery). Infected THA were treated with (i) two-stage exchange in59 patients (51%, cure rate: 93%), (ii) one-stage exchange in 5 (4.3%,cure rate: 100%), (iii) debridement with change of mobile parts in18 (17%, cure rate: 83%), (iv) debridement without change of mobileparts in 17 (14%, cure rate: 53% ), (v) Girdlestone in 13 (11%, curerate: 100%), and (vi) two-stage exchange followed by removal in 3(2.6%). Patients were followed for a mean of 3.9 years (range, 0.1 to 9years), 7 patients died unrelated to the infected THA. 15 patients (13%)needed additional operations, 1 for mechanical reasons (dislocationof spacer) and 14 for persistent infection: 11 treated with debridementand retention (8 without change and 3 with change of mobile parts)and 3 with two-stage exchange. The mean number of surgery was 2.2(range, 1 to 5). The infection was finally eradicated in all patients, butthe functional outcome remained unsatisfactory in 20% (persistentpain or impaired mobility due to spacer or Girdlestone situation).Conclusions: Non-respect of current treatment concept leads totreatment failure with subsequent operations. Precise analysis of eachtreatment failures can be used for improving the treatment algorithmleading to better results.