Option-Implied Preferences Adjustments and Risk-Neutral Density Forecasts

The main objective of this paper is to analyse the value of information contained in prices of options on the IBEX 35 index at the Spanish Stock Exchange Market. The forward looking information is extracted using implied risk-neutral density functions estimated by a mixture of two-lognormals and three alternative risk-adjustments: the classic power and exponential utility functions and a habit-based specification that allows for a counter-cyclical variation of risk aversion. Our results show that at four-week horizon we can reject the hypothesis that between October 1996 and March 2000 the risk-neutral densities provide accurate predictions of the distributions of future realisations of the IBEX 35 index at a four-week horizon. When forecasting through risk-adjusted densities the performance of this period is statistically improved and we no longer reject that hypothesis. All risk-adjusted densities generate similar forecasting statistics. Then, at least for a horizon of four-weeks, the actual risk adjustment does not seem to be the issue. By contrast, at the one-week horizon risk-adjusted densities do not improve the forecasting ability of the risk-neutral counterparts.

Preliminary studies on food and feeding habits of Polypterus endlicheri and Polypterus senegalus in Lake Chad

The food and feeding habits of Polyprerus cncllicheri and Polypterus senegalus was carried out in the months of September to October. The food of 33 Polypierus endlicheri as observed include Tilapia species (89.3%), Eutropius niloticus (28.6%), Mayfly nymph (39.3%), Dragon fly larva (56.6%) fish remains (21.4%) and detritus (7.1%). The food of27 Polypterus senegalus as observed include Tilapia sp (88.4%), Eutropius niloticus (27.9%), may fly nymph (23.3%), Dragonfly nymph (34.9%) remains (21.1%) detritus (23.3%). (9 page document) The percentage occurrence of food item found in the stomach of Polypterus endlieheri is 93.3% while that of Polyprerus senegalus is 67.4%. The dominance of Tilapia sp was establish in the study, and there is no significant difference between the feeding habit of Polypterus endlicheri and Polyprerus senegalus.

Food habits of California Sea Lions (Zalophus californianus) and their impact on Salmonid Fisheries in Monterey Bay, California

In the ocean commercial troll and recreational salmon fishery in Monterey Bay California, California sea lions (Zalophus califomianus) will swim near or follow fishing boats and will depredate fish once hooked. The objectives of the study were to determine the percentage of salmon taken by pinnipeds in commercial and recreational fisheries, identify relative importance of prey items seasonally consumed by sea lions, and determine the proportion of salmonids in the sea lion diet on a seasonal basis. From April 1997 through September 1998, 1041 hours of onboard and dockside surveys of the commercial and recreational salmon fisheries were conducted at the three ports in Monterey Bay, California. Sea lions depreadated 7.9 % of the fish hooked in the commercial fishery in 1997 and 28.6 % in 1998,8.4 % (1997) and 18.3 % (1998) of the CPFV fishery, and 15.6 % (1997) and 17.5 % (1998) of the private skiff fishery. Increased depredation rates in both the commercial and recreational salmon fisheries in 1998 were most likely the result of the large EI Nino Southern Oscillation event that occurred in 1997-1998 during which a greater number of sea lions were present in central California. Prey hardparts identified in sea lion fecal samples collected in Monterey Bay indicated that schooling fishes were the predominant prey fish species, such as market squid (Loligo opalescens), Pacific sardine (Sardinops caeruleus), northern anchovy (Engraulis mordax), and rockfish (Sebastes sp.). Sea lions consumed similar prey species in the summer and fall 1997, winter 1997-98, and spring 1998 (PSI> 70.0) with market squid and northern anchovy being the dominant prey species. However, prey composition changed significantly during the summer 1998 and fall 1998 (PSI < 46.0) because of the increased importance of sardine and rockfish in the diet and the decreased importance of market squid. This report does not intend to imply that salmonids are not a prey species for pinnipeds in the Monterey Bay region, but highlights the difficulties encountered in establishing the role of salmonids in the pinniped diet when analyzing fecal samples. (PDF contains 38 pages).

Uncovering Ecosystem Service Bundles through Social Preferences

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Food habits as an ecological partitioning mechanism in the nearshore rockfishes (Sebastes) of Carmel Bay, California

In the kelp forests of Carmel Bay there are six common rockfishes (Sebastes). Three are pelagic (S. serranoides, S. mystinus, and S. melanops) and two are demersal (S. chrysomelas and S. carnatus). The sixth (S. atrovirens) is generally found a few meters above the sea floor. The pelagic rockfishes which are spatially overlapping have different feeding habits. All rockfishes except S. mystinus utilize juvenile rockfishes as their primary food source during the upwelling season. Throughout the non-upwelling season, most species consume invertebrate prey. The pelagic rockfishes have shorter maxillary bones and longer gill rakers than their demersal congeners, both specializations for taking smaller prey. They also have longer intestines, enabling them to utilize less digestable foods. S. mystinus, which has the longest intestine, may be able to use algae as a food source. Fat reserves are accumulated from July through October, when prey is most abundant. Fat is depleted throughout the rest of the year as food becomes scarce and development of sexual organs takes place. Gonad development occurs from November through February for all species except S. atrovirens.

Optimal Monetary Policy with Asymmetric Preferences for Output

Using a model of an optimizing monetary authority which has preferences that weigh inflation and unemployment, Ruge-Murcia (2003, 2004) finds empirical evidence that the authority has asymmetric preferences for unemployment. We extend this model to weigh inflation and output and show that the empirical evidence using these series also supports an asymmetric preference hypothesis, only in our case, preferences are asymmetric for output. We also find evidence that the monetary authority targets potential output rather than some higher output level as would be the case in an extended Barro and Gordon (1983) model.

The food of the larvae of the northern anchovy Engraulis mordax

ENGLISH: Hitherto the only investigation dealing with the food and feeding of the larvae of the northern anchovy, Engraulis mordax Girard, was that of Arthur (1956). His main consideration was, however, with the Pacific sardine, Sardinops caerulea (Girard), and his work on the anchovy can only be considered preliminary. The present investigation is a continuation of Arthur's work on the food of the larval northern anchovy. SPANISH:El único trabajo publicado hasta ahora que trata sobre el alimento y nutrición de las larvas de la anchoa norteña, Engraulis mordax Girard, es el de Arthur (1956); pero su objeto principal fué la sardina del Pacifico, Sardinops caendea (Girard), y el estudio dedicado a la anchoa solo puede considerarse como preliminar. La presente investigación es una continuación del estudio de Arthur sobre el alimento de las larvas de la anchoa norteña.

The Effects of Salinity, Temperature, and Food on the Growth and Reproductive Output of Polydora nuchalis Woodick, 1953

Polydora nuchalis Woodwick, 1953 (Polychaeta: Spionidae) is a protandric hermaphrodite commonly inhabiting intertidal mud flats in southern California. The species exhibits lecithotrophic larval development and adelphophagia. Reproduction of P. nuchalis was monitored for a year at four sites: Catalina Harbor, San Gabriel River, Huntington Harbour, and Malibu Lagoon. Females deposited from 11 to 31 egg capsules in their tubes, with up to 230 eggs per capsule. An average of 3% of the eggs developed into larvae: the remaining were nurse eggs serving as food for the developing larvae. Reproductive output was quantified by determining the number and size of larvae and nurse eggs for individual capsules. Significant differences among the four populations were found for all the quantified variables. In addition, two size classes of nurse eggs were found to exist in capsules from all of the sites. Egg capsules were found throughout the year at San Gabriel River, but none were found during the winter months at the remaining three sites. Size/frequency data for juveniles and adults of the Catalina Harbor population indicate an annual cycle of recruitment. The laboratory experiment consisted of a 3 x 3 x 2 £actor1al design with replication testing the effects of temperature, salinity, and food supply on growth and reproduction of P. nuchalis. Increasing temperature resulted in significantly increased survivorship, growth rates, and percentage reproduction. It also produced a significant decrease in the size of the nurse eggs and the volume of food per larva. The number of egg capsules was maximum at the intermediate temperature. Increasing the salinity resulted in significant increases in survivorship and Class I nurse egg size. Increaaing food availability produced a significant increase in the percentage of worms reproducing. The interactive effect of salinity and £ood level produced significant changes in the number of larvae per capsule and the number of nurse eggs per capsule. However, the number of nurse eggs per larva did not differ significantly among the experimental treatment groups. (PDF contains 129 pages)

The food of yellowfin and skipjack tunas in the Eastern Tropical Pacific Ocean

ENGLISH: Knowledge of the kinds of organisms eaten by tunas, and the relative importance of different kinds of organisms in different situations, is of importance to our understanding of regional and local aggregations and of the behavior of the tropical tunas. Determination of the relative importance of benthic forms in the stomachs of tunas captured in the vicinity of islands and offshore banks, compared with the forms found in the stomachs of those from oceanic areas, distant from these shoal areas, is useful to the understanding of the mechanisms by which the islands and banks attract tuna. A thorough knowledge of the diet may also reveal more about the seasonal and annual variations in the distribution of these fish along the coasts of Mexico, Central America and elsewhere. A knowledge of the diet of the tunas is basic to quantitative studies of the zooplankton and nekton in the Eastern Pacific Ocean with reference to the production of tunas. Studies of the diet of the tropical tunas by examination of stomach contents was, therefore, commenced in late 1957. SPANISH: El conocimiento de las clases de organismos de que se alimentan los atunes, y la importancia relativa de las diferentes clases de organismos en situaciones diferentes, es de valor para nuestra comprensión de las agrupaciones regionales y locales, y de los hábitos de los atunes tropicales. La determinación de la importancia relativa de las formas bénticas en los estómagos de los atunes capturados en la vecindad de las islas y de los bancos apartados de la costa, comparadas con las formas encontradas en los estómagos de los atunes procedentes de áreas oceánicas, distantes de estas áreas poco profundas, es útil para comprender el mecanismo por el cual las islas y los bancos atraen al atún. Un conocimiento completo de la dieta puede revelar también algo más acerca de las variaciones estacionales y anuales en la distribución de estos peces a lo largo de las costas de México, América Central y otras partes. El conocimiento de la dieta del atún es básico para los estudios cuantitativos del zooplancton y del necton en el Océano Pacífico Oriental, con referencia a la producción de los atunes. El estudio de la dieta de los atunes tropicales mediante el examen del contenido estomacal, fué comenzado, por lo tanto, a fines de 1957.