Evaluation of coughing and nasal discharge as early indicators for an increased risk to develop equine recurrent airway obstruction (RAO).

BACKGROUND It is often assumed that horses with mild respiratory clinical signs, such as mucous nasal discharge and occasional coughing, have an increased risk of developing recurrent airway obstruction (RAO). HYPOTHESIS Compared to horses without any clinical signs of respiratory disease, those with occasional coughing, mucous nasal discharge, or both have an increased risk of developing signs of RAO (frequent coughing, increased breathing effort, exercise intolerance, or a combination of these) as characterized by the Horse Owner Assessed Respiratory Signs Index (HOARSI 1-4). ANIMALS Two half-sibling families descending from 2 RAO-affected stallions (n = 65 and n = 47) and an independent replication population of unrelated horses (n = 88). METHODS In a retrospective cohort study, standardized information on occurrence and frequency of coughing, mucous nasal discharge, poor performance, and abnormal breathing effort-and these factors combined in the HOARSI-as well as management factors were collected at intervals of 1.3-5 years. RESULTS Compared to horses without clinical signs of respiratory disease (half-siblings 7%; unrelated horses 3%), those with mild respiratory signs developed clinical signs of RAO more frequently: half-siblings with mucous nasal discharge 35% (P < .001, OR: 7.0, sensitivity: 62%, specificity: 81%), with mucous nasal discharge and occasional coughing 43% (P < .001, OR: 9.9, sensitivity: 55%, specificity: 89%); unrelated horses with occasional coughing: 25% (P = .006, OR = 9.7, sensitivity: 75%, specificity: 76%). CONCLUSIONS AND CLINICAL IMPORTANCE Occasional coughing and mucous nasal discharge might represent an increased risk of developing RAO.

Cultural capital and smoking in young adults: applying new indicators to explore social inequalities in health behaviour.

BACKGROUND Associations between social status and health behaviours are well documented, but the mechanisms involved are less understood. Cultural capital theory may contribute to a better understanding by expanding the scope of inequality indicators to include individuals' knowledge, skills, beliefs and material goods to examine how these indicators impact individuals' health lifestyles. We explore the structure and applicability of a set of cultural capital indicators in the empirical exploration of smoking behaviour among young male adults. METHODS We analysed data from the Swiss Federal Survey of Adolescents (CH-X) 2010-11 panel of young Swiss males (n = 10 736). A set of nine theoretically relevant variables (including incorporated, institutionalized and objectified cultural capital) were investigated using exploratory factor analysis. Regression models were run to observe the association between factor scores and smoking outcomes. Outcome measures consisted of daily smoking status and the number of cigarettes smoked by daily smokers. RESULTS Cultural capital indicators aggregated in a three-factor solution representing 'health values', 'education and knowledge' and 'family resources'. Each factor score predicted the smoking outcomes. In young males, scoring low on health values, education and knowledge and family resources was associated with a higher risk of being a daily smoker and of smoking more cigarettes daily. CONCLUSION Cultural capital measures that include, but go beyond, educational attainment can improve prediction models of smoking in young male adults. New measures of cultural capital may thus contribute to our understanding of the social status-based resources that individuals can use towards health behaviours.

The World of Indicators. The Making of Governmental Knowledge through Quantification

The twenty-first century has seen a further dramatic increase in the use of quantitative knowledge for governing social life after its explosion in the 1980s. Indicators and rankings play an increasing role in the way governmental and non-governmental organizations distribute attention, make decisions, and allocate scarce resources. Quantitative knowledge promises to be more objective and straightforward as well as more transparent and open for public debate than qualitative knowledge, thus producing more democratic decision-making. However, we know little about the social processes through which this knowledge is constituted nor its effects. Understanding how such numeric knowledge is produced and used is increasingly important as proliferating technologies of quantification alter modes of knowing in subtle and often unrecognized ways. This book explores the implications of the global multiplication of indicators as a specific technology of numeric knowledge production used in governance. Combination of insights from anthropology of law, history of science, science and technology studies, sociology of quantification, economics and geography will appeal to those who are uncomfortable with the separation between 'theoretical' and 'empirical' approaches and with the current weakness of critique that address the main trends shaping the relations between capitalism, markets, law and democracy Theoretical discussion of the nature and historical formation of quantification will appeal to those who ask questions such as, 'What is new or different about our contemporary reliance on quantitative knowledge?' Groundbreaking empirical case studies uncover the social work and politics that often go into the making of indicators and explore the far-reaching effects and impacts of these numerical representations in specific settings

Biogeochemical indicators of peatland degradation – a case study of a temperate bog in Northern Germany

Organic soils in peatlands store a great proportion of the global soil carbon pool and can lose carbon via the atmosphere due to degradation. In Germany, most of the greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from organic soils are attributed to sites managed as grassland. Here, we investigated a land use gradient from near-natural wetland (NW) to an extensively managed (GE) to an intensively managed grassland site (GI), all formed in the same bog complex in northern Germany. Vertical depth profiles of δ13C, δ15N, ash content, C / N ratio and bulk density as well as radiocarbon ages were studied to identify peat degradation and to calculate carbon loss. At all sites, including the near-natural site, δ13C depth profiles indicate aerobic decomposition in the upper horizons. Depth profiles of δ15N differed significantly between sites with increasing δ15N values in the top soil layers paralleling an increase in land use intensity owing to differences in peat decomposition and fertilizer application. At both grassland sites, the ash content peaked within the first centimetres. In the near-natural site, ash contents were highest in 10–60 cm depth. The ash profiles, not only at the managed grassland sites, but also at the near-natural site indicate that all sites were influenced by anthropogenic activities either currently or in the past, most likely due to drainage. Based on the enrichment of ash content and changes in bulk density, we calculated the total carbon loss from the sites since the peatland was influenced by anthropogenic activities. Carbon loss at the sites increased in the following order: NW < GE < GI. Radiocarbon ages of peat in the topsoil of GE and GI were hundreds of years, indicating the loss of younger peat material. In contrast, peat in the first centimetres of the NW was only a few decades old, indicating recent peat growth. It is likely that the NW site accumulates carbon today but was perturbed by anthropogenic activities in the past. Together, all biogeochemical parameters indicate a degradation of peat due to (i) conversion to grassland with historical drainage and (ii) land use intensification.

Controlling for culture-specific response bias using ipsatization and response style indicators: Family orientation in seventeen cultures and two generations

Within-subject standardization (ipsatization) has been advocated as a possible means to control for culture-specific responding (e.g., Fisher, 2004). However, the consequences of different kinds of ipsatization procedures for the interpretation of mean differences remain unclear. The current study compared several ipsatization procedures with ANCOVA-style procedures using response style indicators for the construct of family orientation with data from 14 cultures and two generations from the Value-of-Children-(VOC)-Study (4135 dyads). Results showed that within-subject centering/standardizing across all Likert-scale items of the comprehensive VOC-questionnaire removed most of the original cross-cultural variation in family orientation and lead to a non-interpretable pattern of means in both generations. Within-subject centering/standardizing using a subset of 19 unrelated items lead to a decrease to about half of the original effect size and produced a theoretically meaningful pattern of means. A similar effect size and similar mean differences were obtained when using a measure of acquiescent responding based on the same set of items in an ANCOVA-style analysis. Additional models controlling for extremity and modesty performed worse, and combinations did not differ from the acquiescence-only model. The usefulness of different approaches to control for uniform response styles (scalar equivalence not given) in cross- cultural comparisons is discussed.

Good intents but low impacts: Various determinants for different indicators of overall energy use

Energy consumption in industrialized countries by far exceeds a sustainable level. Previous research on determinants of overall consumption levels has yielded contradictory results as to what the main drivers are. While research on the relationship of environmental concerns and pro-environmental behavior emphasizes the importance of motivational aspects, more impact-oriented research challenges these findings and underlines the impacts of a person’s social standing. The aim of our research was to determine which amount of per-capita energy consumption can be explained by structural, socio-demographic, and pro-environmentally motivational variables. Data come from standardized interviews with a representative sample (N=1014) in Germany. Different indicators of per-capita use were collected and will provide the basis for calculating the overall consumption level. In addition, person variables, lifestyle milieus, self-reported energy use, and motivational variables were assessed. First regression analyses show various patterns of determinants for different indicators of overall energy use. While variance in self-reported use is mainly explained by environmental concern, more impact-oriented indicators, such as the size of personal living space and distances of vacation trips, predominantly correlate with status-relevant predictors. These preliminary results support the suspicion that although environmentally aware people intend to reduce their energy use, they rarely go beyond low-impact actions.

Vegetation Changes and Timberline Fluctuations in the Central Alps as Indicators of Holocene Climatic Oscillations

Pollen and plant-macrofossil data are presented for two lakes near the timberline in the Italian (Lago Basso, 2250 m) and Swiss Central Alps (Gouille Rion, 2343 m). The reforestation at both sites started at 9700-9500 BP with Pinus cembra, Larbc decidua, and Betula. The timberline reached its highest elevation between 8700 and 5000 BP and retreated after 5000 BP, due to a mid-Holocene climatic change and increasing human impact since about 3500 BP (Bronze Age). The expansion of Picea abies at Lago Basso between ca. 7500 and 6200 BP was probably favored by cold phases accompanied by increased oceanicity, whereas in the area of Gouille Rion, where spruce expanded rather late (between 4500 and 3500 BP), human influence equally might have been important. The mass expansion of Alnus viridis between ca. 5000 and 3500 BP probably can be related to both climatic change and human activity at timberline. During the early and middle Holocene a series of timberline fluctuations is recorded as declines in pollen and macrofossil concentrations of the major tree species, and as increases in nonarboreal pollen in the pollen percentage diagram of Gouille Rion. Most of ·the periods of low timberline can be correlated by radiocarbon dating with climatic changes in the Alps as indicated by glacier ad­ vances in combination with palynological records, solifluction, and dendrocli­ matical data. Lago Basso and Gouille Rion are the only sites in the Alps showing complete palaeobotanical records of cold phases between 10,000 and 2000 BP with very good time control. The altitudinal range of the Holocene treeline fluc­ tuations caused by climate most likely was not more than 100 to 150 m. A possible correlation of a cold period at ca. 7500-6500 BP (Misox oscil­ lation) in the Alps is made with paleoecological data from North America and Scandinavia and a climatic signal in the GRIP ice core from central Greenland 8200 yr ago (ca. 7400 yr uncal. BP).

Soil indicators to assess the effectiveness of restoration strategies in dryland ecosystems

Soil indicators may be used for assessing both land suitability for restoration and the effectiveness of restoration strategies in restoring ecosystem functioning and services. In this review paper, several soil indicators, which can be used to assess the effectiveness of ecological restoration strategies in dryland ecosystems at different spatial and temporal scales, are discussed. The selected indicators represent the different viewpoints of pedology, ecology, hydrology, and land management. Two overall outcomes stem from the review. (i) The success of restoration projects relies on a proper understanding of their ecology, namely the relationships between soil, plants, hydrology, climate, and land management at different scales, which are particularly complex due to the heterogeneous pattern of ecosystems functioning in drylands. (ii) The selection of the most suitable soil indicators follows a clear identification of the different and sometimes competing ecosystem services that the project is aimed at restoring.

Modern diatom, cladocera, chironomid, and chrysophyte cyst assemblages as quantitative indicators for the reconstruction of past environmental conditions in the Alps. II. Nutrients

Surface sediments from 68 small lakes in the Alps and 9 well-dated sediment core samples that cover a gradient of total phosphorus (TP) concentrations of 6 to 520 μg TP l-1 were studied for diatom, chrysophyte cyst, cladocera, and chironomid assemblages. Inference models for mean circulation log10 TP were developed for diatoms, chironomids, and benthic cladocera using weighted-averaging partial least squares. After screening for outliers, the final transfer functions have coefficients of determination (r2, as assessed by cross-validation, of 0.79 (diatoms), 0.68 (chironomids), and 0.49 (benthic cladocera). Planktonic cladocera and chrysophytes show very weak relationships to TP and no TP inference models were developed for these biota. Diatoms showed the best relationship with TP, whereas the other biota all have large secondary gradients, suggesting that variables other than TP have a strong influence on their composition and abundance. Comparison with other diatom – TP inference models shows that our model has high predictive power and a low root mean squared error of prediction, as assessed by cross-validation.

Using Leading Indicators to Forecast US Home Sales in a Bayesian VAR Framework

This paper uses Bayesian vector autoregressive models to examine the usefulness of leading indicators in predicting US home sales. The benchmark Bayesian model includes home sales, the price of homes, the mortgage rate, real personal disposable income, and the unemployment rate. We evaluate the forecasting performance of six alternative leading indicators by adding each, in turn, to the benchmark model. Out-of-sample forecast performance over three periods shows that the model that includes building permits authorized consistently produces the most accurate forecasts. Thus, the intention to build in the future provides good information with which to predict home sales. Another finding suggests that leading indicators with longer leads outperform the short-leading indicators.

Critical indicators associated with negative performance in a selectively manned unit

Introduction. Selectively manned units have a long, international history, both military and civilian. Some examples include SWAT teams, firefighters, the FBI, the DEA, the CIA, and military Special Operations. These special duty operators are individuals who perform a highly skilled and dangerous job in a unique environment. A significant amount of money is spent by the Department of Defense (DoD) and other federal agencies to recruit, select, train, equip and support these operators. When a critical incident or significant life event occurs, that jeopardizes an operator's performance; there can be heavy losses in terms of training, time, money, and potentially, lives. In order to limit the number of critical incidents, selection processes have been developed over time to “select out” those individuals most likely to perform below desired performance standards under pressure or stress and to "select in" those with the "right stuff". This study is part of a larger program evaluation to assess markers that identify whether a person will fail under the stresses in a selectively manned unit. The primary question of the study is whether there are indicators in the selection process that signify potential negative performance at a later date. ^ Methods. The population being studied included applicants to a selectively manned DoD organization between 1993 and 2001 as part of a unit assessment and selection process (A&S). Approximately 1900 A&S records were included in the analysis. Over this nine year period, seventy-two individuals were determined to have had a critical incident. A critical incident can come in the form of problems with the law, personal, behavioral or family problems, integrity issues, and skills deficit. Of the seventy-two individuals, fifty-four of these had full assessment data and subsequent supervisor performance ratings which assessed how an individual performed while on the job. This group was compared across a variety of variables including demographics and psychometric testing with a group of 178 individuals who did not have a critical incident and had been determined to be good performers with positive ratings by their supervisors.^ Results. In approximately 2004, an online pre-screen survey was developed in the hopes of preselecting out those individuals with items that would potentially make them ineligible for selection to this organization. This survey has aided the organization to increase its selection rates and save resources in the process. (Patterson, Howard Smith, & Fisher, Unit Assessment and Selection Project, 2008) When the same prescreen was used on the critical incident individuals, it was found that over 60% of the individuals would have been flagged as unacceptable. This would have saved the organization valuable resources and heartache.^ There were some subtle demographic differences between the two groups (i.e. those with critical incidents were almost twice as likely to be divorced compared with the positive performers). Upon comparison of Psychometric testing several items were noted to be different. The two groups were similar when their IQ levels were compared using the Multidimensional Aptitude Battery (MAB). When looking at the Minnesota Multiphasic Personality Inventory (MMPI), there appeared to be a difference on the MMPI Social Introversion; the Critical Incidence group scored somewhat higher. When analysis was done, the number of MMPI Critical Items between the two groups was similar as well. When scores on the NEO Personality Inventory (NEO) were compared, the critical incident individuals tended to score higher on Openness and on its subscales (Ideas, Actions, and Feelings). There was a positive correlation between Total Neuroticism T Score and number of MMPI critical items.^ Conclusions. This study shows that the current pre-screening process is working and would have saved the organization significant resources. ^ If one was to develop a profile of a candidate who potentially could suffer a critical incident and subsequently jeopardize the unit, mission and the safety of the public they would look like the following: either divorced or never married, score high on the MMPI in Social Introversion, score low on MMPI with an "excessive" amount of MMPI critical items; and finally scores high on the NEO Openness and subscales Ideas, Feelings, and Actions.^ Based on the results gleaned from the analysis in this study there seems to be several factors, within psychometric testing, that when taken together, will aid the evaluators in selecting only the highest quality operators in order to save resources and to help protect the public from unfortunate critical incidents which may adversely affect our health and safety.^