Short-term forecasting of power demand in the Nord Pool market

Sähkönkulutuksen lyhyen aikavälin ennustamista on tutkittu jo pitkään. Pohjoismaisien sähkömarkkinoiden vapautuminen on vaikuttanut sähkönkulutuksen ennustamiseen. Aluksi työssä perehdyttiin aiheeseen liittyvään kirjallisuuteen. Sähkönkulutuksen käyttäytymistä tutkittiin eri aikoina. Lämpötila tilastojen käyttökelpoisuutta arvioitiin sähkönkulutusennustetta ajatellen. Kulutus ennusteet tehtiin tunneittain ja ennustejaksona käytettiin yhtä viikkoa. Työssä tutkittiin sähkönkulutuksen- ja lämpötiladatan saatavuutta ja laatua Nord Poolin markkina-alueelta. Syötettävien tietojen ominaisuudet vaikuttavat tunnittaiseen sähkönkulutuksen ennustamiseen. Sähkönkulutuksen ennustamista varten mallinnettiin kaksi lähestymistapaa. Testattavina malleina käytettiin regressiomallia ja autoregressiivistä mallia (autoregressive model, ARX). Mallien parametrit estimoitiin pienimmän neliösumman menetelmällä. Tulokset osoittavat että kulutus- ja lämpötiladata on tarkastettava jälkikäteen koska reaaliaikaisen syötetietojen laatu on huonoa. Lämpötila vaikuttaa kulutukseen talvella, mutta se voidaan jättää huomiotta kesäkaudella. Regressiomalli on vakaampi kuin ARX malli. Regressiomallin virhetermi voidaan mallintaa aikasarjamallia hyväksikäyttäen.

Epistemological tensions between linguistic description and ordinary speakers' intuitive knowledge: examples from French verb morphology

In this article, I address epistemological questions regarding the status of linguistic rules and the pervasive--though seldom discussed--tension that arises between theory-driven object perception by linguists on the one hand, and ordinary speakers' possible intuitive knowledge on the other hand. Several issues will be discussed using examples from French verb morphology, based on the 6500 verbs from Le Petit Robert dictionary (2013).

Influence of Equipment Operation and Performance Deterioration on Power Plant Economy.

Pysyäkseen kilpailukykyisenä vapautuneilla sähkömarkkinoilla on voimalaitoksen energiantuotantokustannusten oltava mahdollisimman matalia, tinkimättä kuitenkaan korkeasta käytettävyydestä. Polttoaineen energiasisällön mahdollisimman hyvä hyödyntäminen on ratkaisevan tärkeää voimalaitoksen kannattavuudelle. Polttoainekustannusten osuus on konvektiivisilla laitoksilla yleensä yli puolet koko elinjakson kustannuksista. Kun vielä päästörajat tiukkenevat koko ajan, korostuu polttoaineen korkea hyötykäyttö entisestään. Korkea energiantuotannon luotettavuus ja käytettävyys ovat myös elintärkeitä pyrittäessä kustannusten minimointiin. Tässä työssä on käyty läpi voimalaitoksen kustannuksiin vaikuttavia käsitteitä, kuten hyötysuhdetta, käytettävyyttä, polttoaineen hintoja, ylös- ja alasajoja ja tärkeimpiä häviöitä. Ajostrategiassa ja poikkeamien hallinnassa pyritään hyvään hyötysuhteeseen ja alhaisiin päästöihin joka käyttötilanteessa. Lisäksi on tarkasteltu tiettyjen suureiden, eli höyryn lämpötilan ja paineen, savukaasun hapen pitoisuuden, savukaasun loppulämpötilan, sekä lauhduttimen paineen poikkeamien vaikutusta ohjearvostaan energiantuotantokustannuksiin. Happi / hiilimonoksidi optimoinnissa on otettu huomioon myös pohjatuhkan palamattomat.

The Optimisation of the Draft Tube of a Hydro Power Plant at Off-Design Conditions

Several possible methods of increasing the efficiency and power of hydro power plants by improving the flow passages are investigated in this stydy. The theoretical background of diffuser design and its application to the optimisation of hydraulic turbine draft tubes is presented in the first part of this study. Several draft tube modernisation projects that have been carried out recently are discussed. Also, a method of increasing the efficiency of the draft tube by injecting a high velocity jet into the boundary layer is presented. Methods of increasing the head of a hydro power plant by using an ejector or a jet pump are discussed in the second part of this work. The theoretical principles of various ejector and jet pump types are presented and four different methods of calculating them are examined in more detail. A self-made computer code is used to calculate the gain in the head for two example power plants. Suitable ejector installations for the example plants are also discussed. The efficiency of the ejector power was found to be in the range 6 - 15 % for conventional head increasers, and 30 % for the jet pump at its optimum operating point. In practice, it is impossible to install an optimised jet pump with a 30 % efficiency into the draft tube as this would considerabely reduce the efficiency of the draft tube at normal operating conditions. This demonstrates, however, the potential for improvement which lies in conventional head increaser technology. This study is based on previous publications and on published test results. No actual laboratory measurements were made for this study. Certain aspects of modelling the flow in the draft tube using computational fluid dynamics are discussed in the final part of this work. The draft tube inlet velocity field is a vital boundary condition for such a calculation. Several previously measured velocity fields that have successfully been utilised in such flow calculations are presented herein.

Emergent power hierarchies and group performance (Published online: 7 Oct. 2014)

In newly formed groups, informal hierarchies emerge automatically and readily. In this study, we argue that emergent group hierarchies enhance group performance (Hypothesis 1) and we assume that the more the power hierarchy within a group corresponds to the task-competence differences of the individual group members, the better the group performs (Hypothesis 2). Twelve three-person groups and 28 four-person groups were investigated while solving the Winter Survival Task. Results show that emerging power hierarchies positively impact group performance but the alignment between task-competence and power hierarchy did not affect group performance. Thus, emergent power hierarchies are beneficial for group performance and although they were on average created around individual group members' competence, this correspondence was not a prerequisite for better group performance.

Another Kind of Knowledge: Aristotle's Phronêsis from an Epistemological Point of View

In my thesis, I defend the idea that Aristotle's notion of phronêsis (practical wisdom) is best understood as a kind of practical knowledge. I interpret phronêsis as the knowledge we display when we make the correct decision to act. In a particular situation that demands a specific response, we have practical knowledge of what to do when we make the best decision possible. This interpretation of phronêsis involves that it is possible to evaluate our decisions epistemically, that is, to evaluate whether we really know what to do or not. Aristotle provides a tool for the evaluation of our decisions, which is a definite kind of argument and which the tradition has called the 'practical syllogism'. The practical syllogism stands as the explanation of our decisions or actions. We invoke it when we want to explain or justify why we act as we do. My claim is that the components of the practical syllogism enable one to evaluate not only the moral character of our actions, but also the epistemic strength of our decisions. Correspondingly, a decision is morally right, i.e. virtuous, if the agent considers the right moral principle to apply, and if he is aware of the relevant circumstances of the situation (moral evaluation). Moreover, a decision displays practical knowledge if the agent meets three conditions (epistemic evaluation): he must desire the moral principle for its own sake; he must have experience in spotting the relevant circumstances of the situation; and he must be able to closely connect these circumstances with the moral principle. This interpretation of phronêsis differs from other more traditional interpretations in the emphasis it puts on phronêsis as knowledge. Other interpretations focus more on the moral dimension on phronêsis, without taking its epistemic value seriously. By contrast, I raise seriously the question of what it takes to genuinely know what one should do in a particular situation. -- Dans ma thèse, je défends l'idée que la notion aristotélicienne de phronêsis (sagesse pratique) doit être interprétée comme connaissance pratique. Je comprends la phronêsis comme étant la connaissance que nous avons lorsque nous prenons une bonne décision. Dans une situation particulière qui demande une réponse précise, nous avons une connaissance pratique lorsque nous prenons la meilleure décision possible. Cette interprétation de la phronêsis implique qu'il est possible d'évaluer nos décisions de manière épistémique, c'est-à-dire, d'évaluer si nous savons vraiment ce qu'il faut faire ou non. Ma position est qu'Aristote fournit un outil pour évaluer épistémiquement nos décisions, qui consiste en un certain type d'argument et que la tradition a appelé le 'syllogisme pratique'. Le syllogisme pratique correspond à l'explication de nos décisions ou de nos actions. Nous invoquons un syllogisme pratique lorsque nous voulons expliquer ou justifier pourquoi nous agissons comme nous le faisons. Les éléments du syllogisme pratique permettent d'évaluer non seulement le caractère moral de nos actions, mais aussi la force épistémique de nos décisions. Par conséquent, une décision est moralement correcte, i.e. vertueuse, si l'agent considère le bon principe moral, et s'il est attentif aux circonstances pertinentes de la situation (évaluation morale). En outre, une décision inclut la connaissance pratique si l'agent remplit trois conditions (évaluation épistémique) : il doit désirer le principe moral pour lui-même, il doit avoir de l'expérience pour déceler les circonstances pertinentes, et il doit pouvoir lier intimement ces circonstances avec le principe moral. Cette interprétation de la phronêsis diffère d'autres interprétations plus traditionnelles par l'emphase mise sur la phronêsis en tant que connaissance. D'autres interprétations se concentrent plus sur la dimension morale de la phronêsis, sans se préoccuper sérieusement de sa valeur épistémique. Au contraire, je pose sérieusement la question des conditions nécessaires pour réellement savoir ce qu'il faut faire dans une situation donnée.

A model of gender prejudice, power, and discrimination: How hierarchy-enhancing factors predominate over hierarchy-attenuating factors

Gender inequalities remain an issue in our society and particularly in the workplace. Several factors can explain this gender difference in top-level managerial positions such as career ambitions but also biases against women. In our chapter, we propose a model explaining why gender inequalities and particularly discrimination against women is still present in our societies despite social norms and existing legislation on gender equality. To this purpose, we review research on discrimination through two different approaches, (a) a prejudice approach through the justification-suppression model developed by Crandall and Eshleman (2003) and (b) a power approach through the social dominance theory (Pratto, Sidanius, Stallworth, & Malle, 1994; Sidanius & Pratto, 1999). In our work, we integrate these two approaches and propose a model of gender prejudice, power and discrimination. The integration of these two approaches contributes to a better understanding of how discrimination against women is formed and maintained over time.

Supplier Energy Audits in Thermal Power Plants

This master’s thesis handles an operating model for an electric equipment supplier conducted sale oriented energy audit for pumping, fan and other motor applications at power plants. The study goes through the largest factors affecting internal electricity use at a power plant, finds an energy audit –like approach for the basis of information gathering and presents the information needed for conducting the analysis. The model is tested in practice at a kraft recovery boiler of a chemical pulping mill. Targets chosen represent some of the largest electric motor applications in the boiler itself and in its fuel handling. The energy saving potential of the chosen targets is calculated by simulating the energy consumption of the alternatives for controlling the targets, and thereafter combining the information with the volume flow duration curve. Results of the research are somewhat divaricated, as all the information needed is not available in the automation system. Some of the targets could be simulated and their energy saving potential calculated quite easily. At some of the targets chosen the monitoring was not sufficient enough for this and additional measurements would have been needed to base the calculations on. In traditional energy audits, energy efficiency of pump and fan applications is not necessarily examined. This means that there are good possibilities for developing the now presented targeted energy audit procedure basis further.