Region-wide changes in marine ecosystem dynamics: state-space models to distinguish trends from step changes

Regime shifts are sudden changes in ecosystem structure that can be detected across several ecosystem components. The concept that regime shifts are common in marine ecosystems has gained popularity in recent years. Many studies have searched for the step-like changes in ecosystem state expected under a simple interpretation of this idea. However, other kinds of change, such as pervasive trends, have often been ignored. We assembled over 300 ecological time series from seven UK marine regions, covering two to three decades. We developed state-space models for the first principal component of the time series in each region, a common measure of ecosystem state. Our models allowed both trends and step changes, possibly in combination. We found trends in three of seven regions and step changes in two of seven regions. Gradual and sudden changes are therefore important trajectories to consider in marine ecosystems.

Identidad territorial y paisaje. Evolución morfológica de los núcleos en Castilla y León.

Este estudio intenta esclarecer las transformaciones físicas y socioeconómicas de los asentamientos rurales de la región española de Castilla y León, durante la segunda mitad del siglo XX. Se analiza la evolución temporal de la forma urbana a través de un Sistema de Información Geográfico (SIG), calculando unos índices métricos y comparándolos con la información demográfica histórica. Los resultados pretenden mostrar los efectos de la especialización funcional económica, causada por la integración en las jerarquías productivas globales, sobre la estructura urbana. La pérdida gradual de las características tradicionales de los pueblos castellanos, como la compacidad y la integración en el entorno, debido a la pérdida o degradación de la arquitectura popular y la construcción de nuevas edificaciones industriales, supone un riesgo para las futuras políticas de desarrollo local. Se considera necesario preservar la identidad paisajística y evitar la destrucción del patrimonio cultural para poder revitalizar estos territorios.

Bioaccumulation Trends of Ten Metals in a Pelagic Food Web of Lake Champlain

Many metals have serious toxic effects when ingested by aquatic organisms, and the process of bioaccumulation intensifies this problem. A better understanding of bioaccumulation trends of anthropogenically introduced metals in freshwater food webs is necessary for the development of effective management strategies to protect aquatic organisms, as well as organisms (including humans) that consume top-predator fish in these food webs. Various fish species representing different trophic levels of a pelagic food chain were sampled from Lake Champlain (VT/NY). Atomic absorption spectrometry (AAS) was used to determine levels of chromium, copper, cobalt, cadmium, lead, zinc, nickel, rubidium, cesium and potassium in the fish samples. Metal concentrations for chromium, cobalt, nickel, cesium, cadmium (<5.0 ppm) and lead (<10.0 ppm) were found to be all below detection limits. Carbon and nitrogen isotopic ratios were analyzed to determine the trophic relationship of each fish species. Stable isotope and AAS metal data were used in tandem to produce linear regressions for each metal against trophic level to assess biomagnification. Both potassium and zinc showed no biomagnification because they are homeostatically regulated essential trace metals. Copper was under the detection limits for all fish species with the exception of the sea lamprey; but showed a significant biodiminution among the invertebrates and lamprey. Rubidium, a rarely studied metal, was shown to increase with trophic level in a marginally significant linear relationship suggesting biomagnification is possible where more trophic levels are sampled.

Demographic and temporal trends in out of hospital sudden cardiac death in belfast

Objective: To determine the epidemiology of out of hospital sudden cardiac death (OHSCD) in Belfast from 1 August 2003 to 31 July 2004.

Design: Prospective examination of out of hospital cardiac arrests by using the Utstein style and necropsy reports. World Health Organization criteria were applied to determine the number of sudden cardiac deaths.

Results: Of 300 OHSCDs, 197 (66%) in men, mean age (SD) 68 (14) years, 234 (78%) occurred at home. The emergency medical services (EMS) attended 279 (93%). Rhythm on EMS arrival was ventricular fibrillation (VF) in 75 (27%). The call to response interval (CRI) was mean (SD) 8 (3) minutes. Among patients attended by the EMS, 9.7% were resuscitated and 7.2% survived to leave hospital alive. The CRI for survivors was mean (SD) 5 (2) minutes and for non-survivors, 8 (3) minutes (p < 0.001). Ninety one (30%) OHSCDs were witnessed; of these 91 patients 48 (53%) had VF on EMS arrival. The survival rate for witnessed VF arrests was 20 of 48 (41.7%): all 20 survivors had VF as the presenting rhythm and CRI ? 7 minutes. The European age standardised incidence for OHSCD was 122/100 000 (95% confidence interval 111 to 133) for men and 41/100 000 (95% confidence interval 36 to 46) for women.

Conclusion: Despite a 37% reduction in heart attack mortality in Ireland over the past 20 years, the incidence of OHSCD in Belfast has not fallen. In this study, 78% of OHSCDs occurred at home.