National policies for technical change: Where are the increasing returns to economic research?

Improvements over the past 30 years in statistical data, analysis, and related theory have strengthened the basis for science and technology policy by confirming the importance of technical change in national economic performance. But two important features of scientific and technological activities in the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development countries are still not addressed adequately in mainstream economics: (i) the justification of public funding for basic research and (ii) persistent international differences in investment in research and development and related activities. In addition, one major gap is now emerging in our systems of empirical measurement—the development of software technology, especially in the service sector. There are therefore dangers of diminishing returns to the usefulness of economic research, which continues to rely completely on established theory and established statistical sources. Alternative propositions that deserve serious consideration are: (i) the economic usefulness of basic research is in the provision of (mainly tacit) skills rather than codified and applicable information; (ii) in developing and exploiting technological opportunities, institutional competencies are just as important as the incentive structures that they face; and (iii) software technology developed in traditional service sectors may now be a more important locus of technical change than software technology developed in “high-tech” manufacturing.

Manganese oxide minerals: Crystal structures and economic and environmental significance

Manganese oxide minerals have been used for thousands of years—by the ancients for pigments and to clarify glass, and today as ores of Mn metal, catalysts, and battery material. More than 30 Mn oxide minerals occur in a wide variety of geological settings. They are major components of Mn nodules that pave huge areas of the ocean floor and bottoms of many fresh-water lakes. Mn oxide minerals are ubiquitous in soils and sediments and participate in a variety of chemical reactions that affect groundwater and bulk soil composition. Their typical occurrence as fine-grained mixtures makes it difficult to study their atomic structures and crystal chemistries. In recent years, however, investigations using transmission electron microscopy and powder x-ray and neutron diffraction methods have provided important new insights into the structures and properties of these materials. The crystal structures for todorokite and birnessite, two of the more common Mn oxide minerals in terrestrial deposits and ocean nodules, were determined by using powder x-ray diffraction data and the Rietveld refinement method. Because of the large tunnels in todorokite and related structures there is considerable interest in the use of these materials and synthetic analogues as catalysts and cation exchange agents. Birnessite-group minerals have layer structures and readily undergo oxidation reduction and cation-exchange reactions and play a major role in controlling groundwater chemistry.

Financial fragility, trade credit and contagion effects during the crisis: a spatial econometric approach to firm-level data

The number of distressed manufacturing firms increased sharply during recessionary phase 2009-13. Financial indebtness traditionally plays a key role in assessing firm solvency but contagion effects that originate from the supply chain are usually neglected in literature. Firm interconnections, captured via the trade credit channel, represent a primary vehicle of individual shocks’ propagation, especially during an economic downturn, when liquidity tensions arise. A representative sample of 11,920 Italian manufacturing firms is considered to model a two-step econometric design, where chain reactions in terms of trade credit accumulation (i.e. default of payments to suppliers) are primarily analyzed by resorting to a spatial autoregressive approach (SAR). Spatial interactions are modeled based on a unique dataset of firm-to-firm transactions registered before the outbreak of the crisis. The second step in instead a binary outcome model where trade credit chains are considered together with data on the bank-firm relationship to assess determinants of distress likelihoods in 2009-13. Results show that outstanding trade debt is affected by the liquidity position of a firm and by positive spatial effects. Trade credit chain reactions are found to exert, in turn, a positive impact on distress likelihoods during the crisis. The latter effect is comparable in magnitude to the one exerted by individual financial rigidity, and stresses the importance to include complex interactions between firms in the analysis of the solvency behavior.

The Pursuit of Balanced Income An Economic Perspective on Wealth

The purpose of this thesis is to determine if households with moderate incomes have the opportunity to acquire pecuniary wealth. In an environment of increasing globalization, labor-eliminating technology, and an overburdened entitlement system, the position of wealth is necessary for households with a penchant for early retirement and particularly for those that will inevitably succumb to involuntary retirement. In these writings, qualitative and quantitative descriptions of wealth are offered; two microeconomic metrics are introduced to identify baseline wealth and to gauge proximity to this value; and strategies are devised to close the gap between these metrics. The construct of the economic intertemporal household budget was used as the basis for this research whereby conventional measures of wealth, i.e. net worth and liquid net worth, have been coupled with historical and empirical household data to define and extrapolate wealth and wealth proximity metrics. The major finding is wealth is a dynamic variable contingent upon consumption level rather than income or saving levels. And because households exercise a greater degree of autonomy over consumption, moderate earners are afforded the same opportunities as high earners. The position of wealth is necessary because it sustains consumption in the event of an unwelcomed retirement and it can assuage reliance on entitlement programs. For the majority of households, wealth is a matter of choice.

Advanced interpretation of subsidence in Murcia (SE Spain) using A-DInSAR data – modelling and validation

Subsidence is a natural hazard that affects wide areas in the world causing important economic costs annually. This phenomenon has occurred in the metropolitan area of Murcia City (SE Spain) as a result of groundwater overexploitation. In this work aquifer system subsidence is investigated using an advanced differential SAR interferometry remote sensing technique (A-DInSAR) called Stable Point Network (SPN). The SPN derived displacement results, mainly the velocity displacement maps and the time series of the displacement, reveal that in the period 2004–2008 the rate of subsidence in Murcia metropolitan area doubled with respect to the previous period from 1995 to 2005. The acceleration of the deformation phenomenon is explained by the drought period started in 2006. The comparison of the temporal evolution of the displacements measured with the extensometers and the SPN technique shows an average absolute error of 3.9±3.8 mm. Finally, results from a finite element model developed to simulate the recorded time history subsidence from known water table height changes compares well with the SPN displacement time series estimations. This result demonstrates the potential of A-DInSAR techniques to validate subsidence prediction models as an alternative to using instrumental ground based techniques for validation.

A data driven study of relationships between relief and farmland abandonment in a Mediterranean region

The environmental, cultural and socio-economic causes and consequences of farmland abandonment are issues of increasing concern for researchers and policy makers. In previous studies, we proposed a new methodology for selecting the driving factors in farmland abandonment processes. Using Data Mining and GIS, it is possible to select those variables which are more significantly related to abandonment. The aim of this study is to investigate the application of the above mentioned methodology for finding relationships between relief and farmland abandonment in a Mediterranean region (SE Spain).We have taken into account up to 28 different variables in a single analysis, some of them commonly considered in land use change studies (slope, altitude, TWI, etc), but also other novel variables have been evaluated (sky view factor, terrain view factor, etc). The variable selection process provides results in line with the previous knowledge of the study area, describing some processes that are region specific (e.g. abandonment versus intensification of the agricultural activities). The European INSPIRE Directive (2007/2/EC) establishes that the digital elevation models for land surfaces should be available in all member countries, this means that the research described in this work can be extrapolated to any European country to determine whether these variables (slope, altitude, etc) are important in the process of abandonment.

Economic crisis, immigrant women and changing availability of intimate partner violence services: a qualitative study of professionals' perceptions in Spain

Introduction: Since 2008, Spain has been in the throes of an economic crisis. This recession particularly affects the living conditions of vulnerable populations, and has also led to a reversal in social policies and a reduction in resources. In this context, the aim of this study was to explore intimate partner violence (IPV) service providers’ perceptions of the impact of the current economic crisis on these resources in Spain and on their capacity to respond to immigrant women’s needs experiencing IPV. Methods: A qualitative study was performed based on 43 semi-structured in-depth interviews to social workers, psychologists, intercultural mediators, judges, lawyers, police officers and health professionals from different services dealing with IPV (both, public and NGO’s) and cities in Spain (Barcelona, Madrid, Valencia and Alicante) in 2011. Transcripts were imported into qualitative analysis software (Atlas.ti), and analysed using qualitative content analysis. Results: We identified four categories related to the perceived impact of the current economic crisis: a) “Immigrant women have it harder now”, b) “IPV and immigration resources are the first in line for cuts”, c) “ Fewer staff means a less effective service” and d) “Equality and IPV policies are no longer a government priority”. A cross-cutting theme emerged from these categories: immigrant women are triply affected; by IPV, by the crisis, and by structural violence. Conclusion: The professionals interviewed felt that present resources in Spain are insufficient to meet the needs of immigrant women, and that the situation might worsen in the future.

Explaining transactions in time banks in economic crisis

This article studies the services exchanged in a particular Spanish time bank. Using data from users and transactions, we analyse the users’ profile as well as the determinants of providing and receiving different services. Our results show that the representative user is a Spanish female, not married, middle aged, highly educated and unemployed. We also find differences in the personal characteristics driving the supply and demand of services.

A qualitative exploration of the impact of the economic recession in Spain on working, living and health conditions: reflections based on immigrant workers' experiences

Background: This study aimed to analyse how immigrant workers in Spain experienced changes in their working and employment conditions brought about Spain's economic recession and the impact of these changes on their living conditions and health status. Method: We conducted a grounded theory study. Data were obtained through six focus group discussions with immigrant workers (n = 44) from Colombia, Ecuador and Morocco, and two individual interviews with key informants from Romania living in Spain, selected by theoretical sample. Results: Three categories related to the crisis emerged – previous labour experiences, employment consequences and individual consequences – that show how immigrant workers in Spain (i) understand the change in employment and working conditions conditioned by their experiences in the period prior to the crisis, and (ii) experienced the deterioration in their quality of life and health as consequences of the worsening of employment and working conditions during times of economic recession. Conclusion: The negative impact of the financial crisis on immigrant workers may increase their social vulnerability, potentially leading to the failure of their migratory project and a return to their home countries. Policy makers should take measures to minimize the negative impact of economic crisis on the occupational health of migrant workers in order to strengthen social protection and promote health and well-being.

A hydrological–economic model for sustainable groundwater use in sparse-data drylands: Application to the Amtoudi Oasis in southern Morocco, northern Sahara

A hydrological–economic model is introduced to describe the dynamics of groundwater-dependent economics (agriculture and tourism) for sustainable use in sparse-data drylands. The Amtoudi Oasis, a remote area in southern Morocco, in the northern Sahara attractive for tourism and with evidence of groundwater degradation, was chosen to show the model operation. Governing system variables were identified and put into action through System Dynamics (SD) modeling causal diagrams to program basic formulations into a model having two modules coupled by the nexus ‘pumping’: (1) the hydrological module represents the net groundwater balance (G) dynamics; and (2) the economic module reproduces the variation in the consumers of water, both the population and tourists. The model was operated under similar influx of tourists and different scenarios of water availability, such as the wet 2009–2010 and the average 2010–2011 hydrological years. The rise in international tourism is identified as the main driving force reducing emigration and introducing new social habits in the population, in particular concerning water consumption. Urban water allotment (PU) was doubled for less than a 100-inhabitant net increase in recent decades. The water allocation for agriculture (PI), the largest consumer of water, had remained constant for decades. Despite that the 2-year monitoring period is not long enough to draw long-term conclusions, groundwater imbalance was reflected by net aquifer recharge (R) less than PI + PU (G < 0) in the average year 2010–2011, with net lateral inflow from adjacent Cambrian formations being the largest recharge component. R is expected to be much less than PI + PU in recurrent dry spells. Some low-technology actions are tentatively proposed to mitigate groundwater degradation, such as: wastewater capture, treatment, and reuse for irrigation; storm-water harvesting for irrigation; and active maintenance of the irrigation system to improve its efficiency.

Effect of economic recession on psychosocial working conditions by workers' nationality

Background: Several publications have documented the effects of economic recessions on health. However, little is known about how economic recessions influence working conditions, especially among vulnerable workers. Objective: To explore the effects of 2008 economic crisis on the prevalence of adverse psychosocial working conditions among Spanish and foreign national workers. Methods: Data come from the 2007 and 2011 Spanish Working Conditions Surveys. Survey year, sociodemographic, and occupational information were independent variables and psychosocial factors exposures were dependent variables. Analyses were stratified by nationality (Spanish versus foreign). Prevalence and adjusted prevalence ratios (aPRs) of psychological job demands, job control, job social support, physical demands and perceived job insecurity were estimated using Poisson regression. Results: The Spanish population had higher risk of psychological and physical job demand (aPR = 1.07, 95% CI = [1.04–1.10] and aPR = 1.05, 95% CI = [1.01–1.09], respectively) in 2011 compared to 2007. Among both Spanish and foreign national workers, greater aPR were found for job loss in 2011 compared to 2007 (aPR = 2.47, 95% CI = [2.34–2.60]; aPR = 2.44, 95% CI = [2.15–2.77], respectively). Conclusion: The 2008 economic crisis was associated with a significant increase in physical demands in Spanish workers and increased job insecurity for both Spanish and foreign workers.

Delineating zones to increase geographical detail in individual response data files: An application to the Spanish 2011 Census of population

Due to confidentiality considerations, the microdata available from the 2011 Spanish Census have been codified at a provincial (NUTS 3) level except when the municipal (LAU 2) population exceeds 20,000 inhabitants (a requirement that is met by less than 5% of all municipalities). For the remainder of the municipalities within a given province, information is only provided for their classification in wide population intervals. These limitations, hampering territorially-focused socio-economic analyses, and more specifically, those related to the labour market, are observed in many other countries. This article proposes and demonstrates an automatic procedure aimed at delineating a set of areas that meet such population requirements and that may be used to re-codify the geographic reference in these cases, thereby increasing the territorial detail at which individual information is available. The method aggregates municipalities into clusters based on the optimisation of a relevant objective function subject to a number of statistical constraints, and is implemented using evolutionary computation techniques. Clusters are defined to fit outer boundaries at the level of labour market areas.

Essays on Firm Heterogeneity with Empirical Applications in Economic History and Agricultural Economics

This thesis uses models of firm-heterogeneity to complete empirical analyses in economic history and agricultural economics. In Chapter 2, a theoretical model of firm heterogeneity is used to derive a statistic that summarizes the welfare gains from the introduction of a new technology. The empirical application considers the use of mechanical steam power in the Canadian manufacturing sector during the late nineteenth century. I exploit exogenous variation in geography to estimate several parameters of the model. My results indicate that the use of steam power resulted in a 15.1 percent increase in firm-level productivity and a 3.0-5.2 percent increase in aggregate welfare. Chapter 3 considers various policy alternatives to price ceiling legislation in the market for production quotas in the dairy farming sector in Quebec. I develop a dynamic model of the demand for quotas with farmers that are heterogeneous in their marginal cost of milk production. The econometric analysis uses farm-level data and estimates a parameter of the theoretical model that is required for the counterfactual experiments. The results indicate that the price of quotas could be reduced to the ceiling price through a 4.16 percent expansion of the aggregate supply of quotas, or through moderate trade liberalization of Canadian dairy products. In Chapter 4, I study the relationship between farm-level productivity and participation in the Commercial Export Milk (CEM) program. I use a difference-in-difference research design with inverse propensity weights to test for causality between participation in the CEM program and total factor productivity (TFP). I find a positive correlation between participation in the CEM program and TFP, however I find no statistically significant evidence that the CEM program affected TFP.