Wave-height hazard analysis in Eastern Coast of Spain : Bayesian approach using generalized Pareto distribution

Standard practice of wave-height hazard analysis often pays little attention to the uncertainty of assessed return periods and occurrence probabilities. This fact favors the opinion that, when large events happen, the hazard assessment should change accordingly. However, uncertainty of the hazard estimates is normally able to hide the effect of those large events. This is illustrated using data from the Mediterranean coast of Spain, where the last years have been extremely disastrous. Thus, it is possible to compare the hazard assessment based on data previous to those years with the analysis including them. With our approach, no significant change is detected when the statistical uncertainty is taken into account. The hazard analysis is carried out with a standard model. Time-occurrence of events is assumed Poisson distributed. The wave-height of each event is modelled as a random variable which upper tail follows a Generalized Pareto Distribution (GPD). Moreover, wave-heights are assumed independent from event to event and also independent of their occurrence in time. A threshold for excesses is assessed empirically. The other three parameters (Poisson rate, shape and scale parameters of GPD) are jointly estimated using Bayes' theorem. Prior distribution accounts for physical features of ocean waves in the Mediterranean sea and experience with these phenomena. Posterior distribution of the parameters allows to obtain posterior distributions of other derived parameters like occurrence probabilities and return periods. Predictives are also available. Computations are carried out using the program BGPE v2.0

Mesoscale numerical analysis of the historical November 1982 heavy precipitation event over Andorra (Eastern Pyrenees)

From 6 to 8 November 1982 one of the most catastrophic flash-flood events was recorded in the Eastern Pyrenees affecting Andorra and also France and Spain with rainfall accumulations exceeding 400 mm in 24 h, 44 fatalities and widespread damage. This paper aims to exhaustively document this heavy precipitation event and examines mesoscale simulations performed by the French Meso-NH non-hydrostatic atmospheric model. Large-scale simulations show the slow-evolving synoptic environment favourable for the development of a deep Atlantic cyclone which induced a strong southerly flow over the Eastern Pyrenees. From the evolution of the synoptic pattern four distinct phases have been identified during the event. The mesoscale analysis presents the second and the third phase as the most intense in terms of rainfall accumulations and highlights the interaction of the moist and conditionally unstable flows with the mountains. The presence of a SW low level jet (30 m s-1) around 1500 m also had a crucial role on focusing the precipitation over the exposed south slopes of the Eastern Pyrenees. Backward trajectories based on Eulerian on-line passive tracers indicate that the orographic uplift was the main forcing mechanism which triggered and maintained the precipitating systems more than 30 h over the Pyrenees. The moisture of the feeding flow mainly came from the Atlantic Ocean (7-9 g kg-1) and the role of the Mediterranean as a local moisture source was very limited (2-3 g kg-1) due to the high initial water vapour content of the parcels and the rapid passage over the basin along the Spanish Mediterranean coast (less than 12 h).

Prise alimentaire: pas uniquement une question de volonté [Food intake: not only a question of will!]

During many years, we thought that food intake was only a question of will. Nevertheless, in the second part on the XXth century, we identified several hormones regulating food intake and energy expenditure. Furthermore, these hormones seem to be implicated in the pathogenesis of obesity and in weight loss following bariatric surgery. This short review highlights the main mechanisms implicated in food intake and energy expenditure and also their implication in obesity and bariatric surgery.

Evaluating spine micro-architectural texture (via TBS) discriminates major osteoporotic fractures from controls both as well as and independent of site matched BMD: the Eastern European TBS study.

The aim of the study was to assess the clinical performance of the model combining areal bone mineral density (aBMD) at spine and microarchitecural texture (TBS) for the detection of the osteoporotic fracture. The Eastern European Study is a multicenter study (Serbia, Bulgaria, Romania and Ukraine) evaluating the role of TBS in routine clinical practice as a complement to aBMD. All scans were acquired on Hologic Discovery and GE Prodigy densitometers in a routine clinical manner. The additional clinical values of aBMD and TBS were analyzed using a two steps classification tree approach (aBMD followed by TBS tertiles) for all type of osteoporotic fracture (All-OP Fx). Sensitivity, specificity and accuracy of fracture detection as well as the Net Reclassification Index (NRI) were calculated. This study involves 1031 women subjects aged 45 and older recruited in east European countries. Clinical centers were cross-calibrated in terms of BMD and TBS. As expected, areal BMD (aBMD) at spine and TBS were only moderately correlated (r (2) = 0.19). Prevalence rate for All-OP Fx was 26 %. Subjects with fracture have significant lower TBS and aBMD than subjects without fracture (p < 0.01). TBS remains associated with the fracture even after adjustment for age and aBMD with an OR of 1.27 [1.07-1.51]. When using aBMD T-score of -2.5 and the lowest TBS tertile thresholds, both BMD and TBS were similar in terms of sensitivity (35 vs. 39 %), specificity (78 vs. 80 %) and accuracy (64 vs. 66 %). aBMD and TBS combination, induced a significant improvement in sensitivity (+28 %) and accuracy (+17 %) compared to aBMD alone whereas a moderate improvement was observed in terms of specificity (+9 %). The overall combination gain was 36 % as expressed using the NRI. aBMD and TBS combination decrease significantly the number of subjects needed to diagnose from 7 for aBMD alone to 2. In a multi-centre Eastern European cohort, we have shown that the use of TBS in addition to the aBMD permit to reclassified correctly more than one-third of the overall subjects. Furthermore, the number of subjects needed to diagnose fell to 2 subjects. Economical studies have to be performed to evaluate the gain induced by the use of TBS for the healthcare system.

La spéciation écologique racontée au travers de l'étude de l'évolution des poissons-clowns et de quelques autres

Ecological speciation and its hallmark, adaptive radiation is a process from which most of the current biodiversity derives. As ecological opportunity allows species to colonise unoccupied niches, natural selection drives adaptive phenotypical change. In this thesis, I begin by describing how this evolutionary process acted on the evolution of the clownfishes. During its infancy, this iconic group of coral reef fishes developed a mutualism with sea anemone species. I show how this event triggered the evolutionary radiation of the group, generating species that now inhabit diverse habitats of the coral reefs. Following the appearance of the mutualism, the diversification of the clownfish was catalysed by hybridisation events which shuffled genes, allowing hybrids to reach new fitness optima. While the clownfishes appeared in the region of the coral triangle, a lineage colonised the eastern shores of Africa. I reconstructed the geographic history of the group and showed that this event lead to the rapid appearance of new species, replicating the evolutionary patterns of the original radiation. To better grasp the mechanisms of ecological speciation, I conducted analyses at the population level and identified similar evolutionary patterns than found at the clade level. I discuss how such result suggests a continuity bridging micro- and macroevolution, which so far only been theorised. In parallel to this study case, I question whether biotic and abiotic interactions can promote or restrain ecological speciation. Indeed, I show how the ecological setting of species can drastically impact on their diversification dynamics. Moreover, tradeoffs can occur between specialisation made on different ecological axes allowing species cohabitation. Overall, I show in this work that regardless of the few simple rules that explain the mechanism of ecological speciation, the unavoidable interactions with the ever changing ecological context lead diversification events to give always a different outcome. It is thus primordial to account for the ecological settings of species when discussing their evolutionary dynamics. LA SPÉCIATION ÉCOLOGIQUE RACONTÉE AU TRAVERS DE L'ÉTUDE DE L'ÉVOLUTION DES POISSONS-CLOWNS ET DE QUELQUES AUTRES Le phénomène de spéciation écologique est à l'origine de la majeure partie de la biodiversité que l'on rencontre aujourd'hui. Au fil des opportunités qu'elles rencontrent, les espèces colonisent l'espace écologique laissant la sélection naturelle forger leur phénotype moyen. Malgré l'omniprésence de ce phénomène dans la nature, beaucoup de questions qui lui sont relatives restent à élucider. C'est afin de mieux comprendre ce mécanisme que j'étudie les poissons-clowns, célèbres habitants des récifs coralliens. Dans ce travail, je démontré que le développement du comportement mutualiste liant les poissons-clowns aux anémones de mer fut l'événement qui déclencha leur diversification. Suite à ce premier événement, j'illustre comment l'hybridation entre lignées primordiales a remodelé la diversité génétique du groupe et catalysé leur radiation évolutive. Je poursuis en reconstruisant l'expansion géographique des poissons-clowns au cours du temps depuis le triangle de corail, leur lieu d'origine, jusqu'aux côtes d'Afrique de l'Ouest. Afin d'affiner ces analyses générales sur le groupe, je continue en étudiant plus finement des populations d'une seule espèce de poisson-clown. Cette fine résolution me permet de comprendre plus précisément quels sont les facteurs écologiques qui permettent aux poissons-clowns de se différencier. Les résultats de ces analyses suggèrent qu'il est important de comprendre les liens entre le contexte écologique et la diversification des espèces. J'étudie cette question dans la seconde partie de ce travail en montrant que l'hétérogénéité du paysage ou les liens entretenus avec un partenaire mutualiste influencent fortement la dynamique évolutive des espèces. Finalement, j'illustre les compromis que chaque espèce réalise en se spécialisant ou non dans ses interactions avec l'environnent. Plus généralement, je souligne dans ce travail l'influence du contexte écologique sur le résultat de la spéciation écologique. Ce sont ces interactions entre les organismes et leur environnent qui sont à l'origine de l'incroyable diversité de la vie. Il est donc primordial de les prendre en compte lors de l'étude de l'évolution des espèces.

Tectonomagmatic evolution of Western Amazonia: Geochemical characterization and zircon U-Pb geochronologic constraints from the Peruvian Eastern Cordilleran granitoids

The results of a coupled, in situ laser ablation-inductively coupled plasma-mass spectrometry (LA-ICP-MS) U-Pb study on zircon and geochemical characterization of the Eastern Cordilleran intrusives of Peru reveal 1.15 Ga of intermittent magmatism along central Western Amazonia, the Earth's oldest active open continental margin. The eastern Peruvian batholiths are volumetrically dominated by plutonism related to the assembly and breakup of Pangea during the Paleozoic-Mesozoic transition. A Carboniferous-Permian (340-285 Ma) continental arc is identified along the regional orogenic strike from the Ecuadorian border (6 degrees S) to the inferred inboard extension of the Arequipa-Antofalla terrane in southern Peru (14 degrees S). Widespread crustal extension and thinning, which affected western Gondwana throughout the Permian and Triassic resulted in the intrusion of the late- to post-tectonic La Merced-San Ramon-type anatectites dated between 275 and 220 Ma, while the emplacement of the southern Cordillera de Carabaya peraluminous granitoids in the Late Triassic to Early Jurassic (220-190 Ma) represents, temporally and regionally, a separate tectonomagmatic event likely related to resuturing of the Arequipa-Antofalla block. Volcano-plutonic complexes and stocks associated with the onset of the present Andean cycle define a compositionally bimodal alkaline suite and cluster between 180 and 170 Ma. A volumetrically minor intrusive pulse of Oligocene age (ca. 30 Ma) is detected near the southwestern Cordilleran border with the Altiplano. Both post-Gondwanide (30-170 Ma), and Precambrian plutonism (691-1123 Ma) are restricted to isolated occurrences spatially comprising less than 15% of the Eastern Cordillera intrusives. Only one remnant of a Late Ordovician intrusive belt is recognized in the Cuzco batholith (446.5 +/- 9.7 Ma) indicating that the Famatinian arc system previously identified in Peru along the north-central Eastern Cordillera and the coastal Arequipa-Antofalla terrane also existed inboard of this parautochthonous crustal fragment. Hitherto unknown occurrences of late Mesoproterozoic and middle Neoproterozoic granitoids from the south-central cordilleran segment define magmatic events at 691 +/- 13 Ma, 751 +/- 8 Ma, 985 +/- 14 Ma, and 1071-1123 +/- 23 Ma that are broadly coeval with the Braziliano and Grenville-Sunsas orogenies, respectively. Our data suggest the existence of a continuous orogenic belt in excess of 3500 km along Western Amazonia during the formation of Rodinia, its ``early'' fragmentation prior to 690 Ma, and support a model of reaccretion of the Paracas-Arequipa-Antofalla terrane to western Gondwana in the Early Ordovician with subsequent detachment of the Paracas segment in form of the Mexican Oaxaquia microcontinent in Middle Ordovician. A tectonomagmatic model involving slab detachment, followed by underplating of cratonic margin by asthenospheric mantle is proposed for the genesis of the volumetrically dominant Late Paleozoic to early Mesozoic Peruvian Cordilleran batholiths.