Államadósság, optimális politika, finanszírozás (State Debt, Optimal Policy, and Financing)

A fejlett ipari országoknak is az államadósság csökkentése vagy akár szinten tartása okozza az egyik legfontosabb gazdaságpolitikai dilemmát. Az euróövezet tagállamai esetében is ez a kritérium tűnik a legkevésbé teljesíthetőnek, de Japán és az Egyesült Államok is leküzdhetetlennek tűnő államadóssággal birkózik. A tanulmány rövid áttekintést ad néhány meghatározó közgazdasági megközelítésről, amelyek az államadósság szintjének hosszú távú alakulása mögött meghúzódó tényezőket, gazdaságpolitikai lépéseket magyarázzák. Végül az elméletek alapján tanulságokat fogalmaz meg a magyar államadósság kezelését illetően az 1990–2010 közötti folyamatok ismeretében. _____ The macroeconomic developments of the last decade have confirmed that one of the most important dilemmas that even developed economies have to face is the reduction or even sustaining of the state debt. In case of the eurozone member states this criterion is the most difficult to be accomplished, furthermore the United States and Japan are among the global powers that have to cope with state debts which seems to be insurmountable. The aim of this paper is to provide a brief overview of some decisive economic approaches (Barro [1979], Lucas and Stokey [1983], Marcet and Scott [2007], Martin [2009] etc.) that explain the factors behind the formation of long-run state debt level and economic policy measures accompanying state debt management. The paper also attempts to draw some lessons for the Hungarian state debt management in view of the 1990-2010 processes.

The political economy of sovereign debt

This dissertation examines international lending arrangements between a competitive foreign investor and a less-developed country. Given that the benefits and costs of borrowing are distributed unequally across society, it is of interest to examine the conditions under which borrowing occurs and how the borrowed funds are allocated. Three theoretical models are developed to consider optimal lending arrangements in the presence of sovereign risk. The models show how a society's level and distribution of wealth influences its access to loans and the terms of the loan agreements. Optimal loan contracts are established, which place either a debt ceiling or a debt floor on the amount of the loan that, will be offered. ^

The political economy of inequality and growth: Essays on sovereign debt, democracy and saving

This dissertation addresses three issues in the political economy of growth literature. The first study empirically tests the hypothesis that income inequality influences the size of a country's sovereign debt for a sample of developing countries for the period 1970–1990. The argument examined is that governments tend to yield to popular pressures to engage in redistributive policies, partially financed by foreign borrowing. Facing increased risk of default, international creditors limit the credit they extend, with the result that borrowing countries invest less and grow at a slower pace. The findings do not seem to support the negative relationship between inequality and sovereign debt, as there is evidence of increases in multilateral, countercyclical flows until the mid 1980s in Latin America. The hypothesis would hold for the period 1983–1990. Debt flows and levels seem to be positively correlated with growth as expected. ^ The second study empirically investigates the hypothesis that pronounced levels of inequality lead to unconsolidated democracies. We test the existence of a nonmonotonic relationship between inequality and democracy for a sample of Latin American countries for the period 1970–2000, where democracy appears to consolidate at some intermediate level of inequality. We find that the nonmonotonic relationship holds using instrumental variables methods. Bolivia seems to be a case of unconsolidated democracy. The positive relationship between per capita income and democracy disappears once fixed effects are introduced. ^ The third study explores the nonlinear relationship between per capita income and private saving levels in Latin America. Several estimation methods are presented; however, only the estimation of a dynamic specification through a state-of-the-art general method of moments estimator yields consistent estimates with increased efficiency. Results support the hypothesis that income positively affects private saving, while system GMM reveals nonlinear effects at income levels that exceed the ones included in this sample for the period 1960–1994. We also find that growth, government dissaving, and tightening of credit constraints have a highly significant and positive effect on private saving. ^

Agency Costs, Bankruptcy Costs and the Use of Debt in Multinational Restaurant Firms

The purpose of this paper is to understand whether multinational restaurant firms (MNRF’s) have higher agency and expected bankruptcy costs. Given this expectation, this may have an impact on the amount of debt incurred by MNRF’s. Overall, the findings are consistent with the existing literatue in terms of the positive relationship between MNRF’s and agency and bankruptcy cost. However, it was found that MNRF’s also have more total debt. This is surprising given the higher agency and bankruptcy costs. The importance of this research is that there may be considerations other than agency and bacnkruptcy costs affecting the capital structure decisions of MNRF’s.

Net Bet Debt

The prospective high returns from gaming operations have introduced the Internet as a new competitor to the hotel and travel industry. With the dawn of the new millennium, am epidemic of gamblers has infected the virtual world and raised leagal problems yet to be solved.

Casino Gambling is Hot: Gambling Debt Collection is Hot

Gambling on credit, considered a vice by some, is not judicially collectible based upon the Statute of Anne. This common law statute prevents the collection of gambling losses, unless expected by state statute. This article reviews and updates the findings of an unenforceability of gambling debt study conducted in 1989 just prior to the rapid expansion of gambling in the United States.

The Nevada Gaming Debt Collection Experience

In the discussion - The Nevada Gaming Debt Collection Experience - by Larry D. Strate, Assistant Professor, College of Business and Economics at the University of Nevada, Las Vegas, Assistant Professor Strate initially outlines the article by saying: “Even though Nevada has had over a century of legalized gaming experience, the evolution of gaming debt collection has been a recent phenomenon. The author traces that history and discusses implications of the current law.” The discussion opens with a comparison between the gaming industries of New Jersey/Atlantic City, and Las Vegas, Nevada. This contrast serves to point out the disparities in debt handling between the two. “There are major differences in the development of legalized gaming for both Nevada and Atlantic City. Nevada has had over a century of legalized gambling; Atlantic City, New Jersey, has completed a decade of its operation,” Strate informs you. “Nevada's gaming industry has been its primary economic base for many years; Atlantic City's entry into gaming served as a possible solution to a social problem. Nevada's processes of legalized gaming, credit play, and the collection of gaming debts were developed over a period of 125 years; Atlantic City's new industry began with gaming, gaming credit, and gaming debt collection simultaneously in 1976 [via the New Jersey Casino Control Act] .” The irony here is that Atlantic City, being the younger venue, had or has a better system for handling debt collection than do the historic and traditional Las Vegas properties. Many of these properties were duplicated in New Jersey, so the dichotomy existed whereby New Jersey casinos could recoup debt while their Nevada counterparts could not. “It would seem logical that a "territory" which permitted gambling in the early 1800’s would have allowed the Nevada industry to collect its debts as any other legal enterprise. But it did not,” Strate says. Of course, this situation could not be allowed to continue and Strate outlines the evolution. New Jersey tactfully benefitted from Nevada’s experience. “The fundamental change in gaming debt collection came through the legislature as the judicial decisions had declared gaming debts uncollectable by either a patron or a casino,” Strate informs you. “Nevada enacted its gaming debt collection act in 1983, six years after New Jersey,” Strate points out. One of the most noteworthy paragraphs in the entire article is this: “The fundamental change in 1983, and probably the most significant change in the history of gaming in Nevada since the enactment of the Open Gaming Law of 1931, was to allow non-restricted gaming licensees* to recover gaming debts evidenced by a credit instrument. The new law incorporated previously litigated terms with a new one, credit instrument.” The term is legally definable and gives Nevada courts an avenue of due process.

Variables affecting government debt: A comparison of certificates of participation, tax -exempt revenue bonds and tax -exempt general obligation bonds

This dissertation analyzed and compared variables affecting interest rate and yield of certificates of participation, tax-exempt revenue bonds and tax-exempt general obligation bonds. The study employed qualitative and quantitative analysis methods. ^ Qualitative research methods included surveys, interviews and focus groups. The survey solicited debt load information from 67 Florida school districts (21 responded) and addressed the question which districts used certificates of participation and why. Eight individuals with experience dealing with all three debt instruments were interviewed. A follow-up focus group of six school district financial officers gathered additional data. Results from the qualitative methods revealed school districts used certificates of participation based on millage authority amount available relative to overall tax base. Also identified was the belief of a significant difference in certificates of participation costs and the other two debt instrument types. ^ The study's quantitative methods analyzed 1998 and 1999 initial issues of Moody's AAA rated certificates of participation, tax-exempt revenue bonds and tax-exempt general obligation bonds. Through an analysis of covariance (ANCOVA), the study examined interest rates and yields while controlling for the covariates of credit enhancement, issue size, and maturity date. The analysis identified no significant difference between interest rates of certificates of participation and tax-exempt general obligation bonds (p < 0.05). There was a significant difference between interest rates of tax-exempt revenue bonds and tax-exempt general obligation bonds. This study discerned no significant difference between yield on certificates of participation and tax-exempt general obligation bonds. It identified a difference in yield between both certificates of participation and tax-exempt general obligation bonds compared with tax-exempt revenue bonds. ^ The study found COPs to have lesser overall costs than RV bonds. COPs also have a quicker entry into the market resulting in construction cost savings. The study found policy implications such as investment portfolio limitations and public choice issues about using COPs as a mechanism to grow government. ^

The star formation and extinction coevolution of UV-selected galaxies over 0.05 < z < 1.2

We use a new stacking technique to obtain mean mid-IR and far-IR to far-UV flux ratios over the rest-frame near-UV, near-IR color-magnitude diagram. We employ COMBO-17 redshifts and COMBO-17 optical, GALEX far- and near-UV, and Spitzer IRAC and MIPS mid-IR photometry. This technique permits us to probe the infrared excess (IRX), the ratio of far-IR to far-UV luminosity, and the specific star formation rate (SSFR) and their coevolution over 2 orders of magnitude of stellar mass and over redshift 0.1 < z < 1.2. We find that the SSFR and the characteristic mass (Script M_0) above which the SSFR drops increase with redshift (downsizing). At any given epoch, the IRX is an increasing function of mass up to Script M_0. Above this mass the IRX falls, suggesting gas exhaustion. In a given mass bin below Script M_0, the IRX increases with time in a fashion consistent with enrichment. We interpret these trends using a simple model with a Schmidt-Kennicutt law and extinction that tracks gas density and enrichment. We find that the average IRX and SSFR follow a galaxy age parameter ξ, which is determined mainly by the galaxy mass and time since formation. We conclude that blue-sequence galaxies have properties which show simple, systematic trends with mass and time such as the steady buildup of heavy elements in the interstellar media of evolving galaxies and the exhaustion of gas in galaxies that are evolving off the blue sequence. The IRX represents a tool for selecting galaxies at various stages of evolution.

Debt-growth linkages in EMU across countries and time horizons

This paper contributes to the literature by empirically examining whether the influence of public debt on economic growth differs between the short and the long run and presents different patterns across euro-area countries. To this end, we use annual data from both central and peripheral countries of the European Economic and Monetary Union (EMU) for the 1960-2012 period and estimate a growth model augmented for public debt using the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) bounds testing approach. Our findings tend to support the view that public debt always has a negative impact on the long-run performance of EMU countries, whilst its short-run effect may be positive depending on the country.

The Consequences of Fiscal Stimulus on Public Debt : A Historical Perspective

Peer reviewed

The Consequences of Fiscal Stimulus on Public Debt : A Historical Perspective

Peer reviewed