Essays in general equilibrium asset pricing

ABSTRACT : Research in empirical asset pricing has pointed out several anomalies both in the cross section and time series of asset prices, as well as in investors' portfolio choice. This dissertation aims to discover the forces driving some of these "puzzling" asset pricing dynamics and portfolio decisions observed in the financial market. Through the dissertation I construct and study dynamic general equilibrium models of heterogeneous investors in the presence of frictions and evaluate quantitatively their implications for financial-market asset prices and portfolio choice. I also explore the potential roots of puzzles in international finance. Chapter 1 shows that, by introducing jointly endogenous no-default type of borrowing constraints and heterogeneous beliefs in a dynamic general-equilibrium economy, many empirical features of stock return volatility can be reproduced. While most of the research on stock return volatility is empirical, this paper provides a theoretical framework that is able to reproduce simultaneously the cross section and time series stylized facts concerning stock returns and their volatility. In contrast to the existing theoretical literature related to stock return volatility, I don't impose persistence or regimes in any of the exogenous state variables or in preferences. Volatility clustering, asymmetry in the stock return-volatility relationship, and pricing of multi-factor volatility components in the cross section all arise endogenously as a consequence of the feedback between the binding of no-default constraints and heterogeneous beliefs. Chapters 2 and 3 explore the implications of differences of opinion across investors in different countries for international asset pricing anomalies. Chapter 2 demonstrates that several international finance "puzzles" can be reproduced by a single risk factor which captures heterogeneous beliefs across international investors. These puzzles include: (i) home equity preference; (ii) the dependence of firm returns on local and foreign factors; (iii) the co-movement of returns and international capital flows; and (iv) abnormal returns around foreign firm cross-listing events in the local market. These are reproduced in a setup with symmetric information and in a perfectly integrated world with multiple countries and independent processes producing the same good. Chapter 3 shows that by extending this framework to multiple goods and correlated production processes; the "forward premium puzzle" arises naturally as a compensation for the heterogeneous expectations about the depreciation of the exchange rate held by international investors. Chapters 2 and 3 propose differences of opinion across international investors as the potential resolution of several international finance `puzzles'. In a globalized world where both capital and information flow freely across countries, this explanation seems more appealing than existing asymmetric information or segmented markets theories aiming to explain international finance puzzles.

Heterogeneous discounting in consumption-investment problems. Time consistent solutions

[cat] En aquest treball s'analitza un model estocàstic en temps continu en el que l'agent decisor descompta les utilitats instantànies i la funció final amb taxes de preferència temporal constants però diferents. En aquest context es poden modelitzar problemes en els quals, quan el temps s'acosta al moment final, la valoració de la funció final incrementa en comparació amb les utilitats instantànies. Aquest tipus d'asimetria no es pot descriure ni amb un descompte estàndard ni amb un variable. Per tal d'obtenir solucions consistents temporalment es deriva l'equació de programació dinàmica estocàstica, les solucions de la qual són equilibris Markovians. Per a aquest tipus de preferències temporals, s'estudia el model clàssic de consum i inversió (Merton, 1971) per a les funcions d'utilitat del tipus CRRA i CARA, comparant els equilibris Markovians amb les solucions inconsistents temporalment. Finalment es discuteix la introducció del temps final aleatori.

La probabilidad de supervivencia en un modelo con reaseguro proporcional de umbral

[spa] En este artículo presentamos una nueva estrategia de reaseguro, a la que denominamos estrategia de reaseguro umbral, que actúa de forma diferente en función del nivel de las reservas. Así, para unos niveles de las reservas inferiores a un determinado nivel, el gestor decide aplicar un reaseguro proporcional, y para niveles superiores, al considerar que se ha alcanzado cierta solvencia en la cartera, opta por no ceder ningún porcentaje del riesgo. El análisis del efecto de la introducción del reaseguro umbral sobre la probabilidad de supervivencia, y su comparación con el reaseguro proporcional y la opción de no reasegurar, nos permite hallar estrategias de reaseguro equivalentes desde el punto de vista de la solvencia. Palabras clave: teoría del riesgo, reaseguro de umbral, reaseguro proporcional, probabilidad de supervivencia.

Herramientas estadísticas para el estudio de perfiles de riesgo

En este documento se ilustra de un modo práctico, el empleo de tres instrumentos que permiten al actuario definir grupos arancelarios y estimar premios de riesgo en el proceso que tasa la clase para el seguro de no vida. El primero es el análisis de segmentación (CHAID y XAID) usado en primer lugar en 1997 por UNESPA en su cartera común de coches. El segundo es un proceso de selección gradual con el modelo de regresión a base de distancia. Y el tercero es un proceso con el modelo conocido y generalizado de regresión linear, que representa la técnica más moderna en la bibliografía actuarial. De estos últimos, si combinamos funciones de eslabón diferentes y distribuciones de error, podemos obtener el aditivo clásico y modelos multiplicativos

Option valuation as an expectation in the complex domain: The Black-Scholes case

It is very well known that the first succesful valuation of a stock option was done by solving a deterministic partial differential equation (PDE) of the parabolic type with some complementary conditions specific for the option. In this approach, the randomness in the option value process is eliminated through a no-arbitrage argument. An alternative approach is to construct a replicating portfolio for the option. From this viewpoint the payoff function for the option is a random process which, under a new probabilistic measure, turns out to be of a special type, a martingale. Accordingly, the value of the replicating portfolio (equivalently, of the option) is calculated as an expectation, with respect to this new measure, of the discounted value of the payoff function. Since the expectation is, by definition, an integral, its calculation can be made simpler by resorting to powerful methods already available in the theory of analytic functions. In this paper we use precisely two of those techniques to find the well-known value of a European call

Prediction markets supporting technology assessment

In this thesis, we study the use of prediction markets for technology assessment. We particularly focus on their ability to assess complex issues, the design constraints required for such applications and their efficacy compared to traditional techniques. To achieve this, we followed a design science research paradigm, iteratively developing, instantiating, evaluating and refining the design of our artifacts. This allowed us to make multiple contributions, both practical and theoretical. We first showed that prediction markets are adequate for properly assessing complex issues. We also developed a typology of design factors and design propositions for using these markets in a technology assessment context. Then, we showed that they are able to solve some issues related to the R&D portfolio management process and we proposed a roadmap for their implementation. Finally, by comparing the instantiation and the results of a multi-criteria decision method and a prediction market, we showed that the latter are more efficient, while offering similar results. We also proposed a framework for comparing forecasting methods, to identify the constraints based on contingency factors. In conclusion, our research opens a new field of application of prediction markets and should help hasten their adoption by enterprises. Résumé français: Dans cette thèse, nous étudions l'utilisation de marchés de prédictions pour l'évaluation de nouvelles technologies. Nous nous intéressons plus particulièrement aux capacités des marchés de prédictions à évaluer des problématiques complexes, aux contraintes de conception pour une telle utilisation et à leur efficacité par rapport à des techniques traditionnelles. Pour ce faire, nous avons suivi une approche Design Science, développant itérativement plusieurs prototypes, les instanciant, puis les évaluant avant d'en raffiner la conception. Ceci nous a permis de faire de multiples contributions tant pratiques que théoriques. Nous avons tout d'abord montré que les marchés de prédictions étaient adaptés pour correctement apprécier des problématiques complexes. Nous avons également développé une typologie de facteurs de conception ainsi que des propositions de conception pour l'utilisation de ces marchés dans des contextes d'évaluation technologique. Ensuite, nous avons montré que ces marchés pouvaient résoudre une partie des problèmes liés à la gestion des portes-feuille de projets de recherche et développement et proposons une feuille de route pour leur mise en oeuvre. Finalement, en comparant la mise en oeuvre et les résultats d'une méthode de décision multi-critère et d'un marché de prédiction, nous avons montré que ces derniers étaient plus efficaces, tout en offrant des résultats semblables. Nous proposons également un cadre de comparaison des méthodes d'évaluation technologiques, permettant de cerner au mieux les besoins en fonction de facteurs de contingence. En conclusion, notre recherche ouvre un nouveau champ d'application des marchés de prédiction et devrait permettre d'accélérer leur adoption par les entreprises.

Health and (Other) Asset Holdings

Despite clear evidence of correlations between financial and medical statuses and decisions, most models treat financial and health-related choices separately. This article bridges this gap by proposing a tractable dynamic framework for the joint determination of optimal consumption, portfolio holdings, health investment, and health insurance. We solve for the optimal rules in closed form and capitalize on this tractability to gain a better understanding of the conditions under which separation between financial and health-related decisions is sensible, and of the pathways through which wealth and health determine allocations, welfare and other variables of interest such as expected longevity or the value of health. Furthermore we show that the model is consistent with the observed patterns of individual allocations and provide realistic estimates of the parameters that confirm the relevance of all the main characteristics of the model.

Midwest Transportation Consortium Annual Report, 2004-2005

The Midwest Transportation Consortium (MTC) recently completed its sixth year of operation. The MTC has become an established portion of the research and educational programs at ISU and its partner universities. The MTC continues to emphasize its primary focus of developing human capital. For example, this semester, Fall, 2005, ISU has graduate scholars in its educational program. However, we also recognize that the federal grant is an opportunity to build programs at our respective universities that continue after the U.S. DOT UTCP may end. An example of building a long lasting program is the University of Missouri – St. Louis’ (UMSL) and its development of a transportation Ph.D. program in their business college. Admittedly, this program could have been started regardless, but Dr. Ray Mundy, Director of UMSL’s Transportation Scholars Program, believes that the MTC support of the transportation educational program at UMSL was the essential component in establishing a Ph.D. program. At ISU, the MTC has been instrumental in establishing two research and outreach programs, and both have themes that are related to the MTC’s theme of “Transportation System Management and Operation.” The Center for Weather Impacts on Mobility and Safety (C-WIMS) was recently established, and the Center for Road Infrastructure Management and Operations (RIMO) is in the process of being established. The MTC has a critical role in establishing each of these two programs. As part of the on-going MTC program, we have established an effective network that promotes the education of future transportation professionals and the development of new knowledge on how to manage transportation infrastructure and services in a more sustainable manner. The MTC has a track record of developing outstanding students; these students are now becoming leaders in the private sector, government, and academia. The MTC has also supported the development of an extensive research portfolio related to sustainable transportation asset management. More research projects are in the pipeline. Finally, the MTC has dedicated itself to the dissemination of asset management research results through an ongoing technology transfer program. This document provides a progress for the latest fiscal year of operation of the MTC, which ran from October 2004 through September 2005.

Midwest Transportation Consortium Annual Report, 2005-2006

The Midwest Transportation Consortium (MTC) recently completed its sixth year of operation. The MTC has become an established portion of the research and educational programs at ISU and its partner universities. The MTC continues to emphasize its primary focus of developing human capital. For example, this semester, Fall, 2005, ISU has graduate scholars in its educational program. However, we also recognize that the federal grant is an opportunity to build programs at our respective universities that continue after the U.S. DOT UTCP may end. An example of building a long lasting program is the University of Missouri – St. Louis’ (UMSL) and its development of a transportation Ph.D. program in their business college. Admittedly, this program could have been started regardless, but Dr. Ray Mundy, Director of UMSL’s Transportation Scholars Program, believes that the MTC support of the transportation educational program at UMSL was the essential component in establishing a Ph.D. program. At ISU, the MTC has been instrumental in establishing two research and outreach programs, and both have themes that are related to the MTC’s theme of “Transportation System Management and Operation.” The Center for Weather Impacts on Mobility and Safety (C-WIMS) was recently established, and the Center for Road Infrastructure Management and Operations (RIMO) is in the process of being established. The MTC has a critical role in establishing each of these two programs. As part of the on-going MTC program, we have established an effective network that promotes the education of future transportation professionals and the development of new knowledge on how to manage transportation infrastructure and services in a more sustainable manner. The MTC has a track record of developing outstanding students; these students are now becoming leaders in the private sector, government, and academia. The MTC has also supported the development of an extensive research portfolio related to sustainable transportation asset management. More research projects are in the pipeline. Finally, the MTC has dedicated itself to the dissemination of asset management research results through an ongoing technology transfer program. This document provides a progress for the latest fiscal year of operation of the MTC, which ran from October 2004 through September 2005.

Midwest Transportation Consortium Annual Report, 2006-2007

The Midwest Transportation Consortium (MTC) recently completed its sixth year of operation. The MTC has become an established portion of the research and educational programs at ISU and its partner universities. The MTC continues to emphasize its primary focus of developing human capital. For example, this semester, Fall, 2005, ISU has graduate scholars in its educational program. However, we also recognize that the federal grant is an opportunity to build programs at our respective universities that continue after the U.S. DOT UTCP may end. An example of building a long lasting program is the University of Missouri – St. Louis’ (UMSL) and its development of a transportation Ph.D. program in their business college. Admittedly, this program could have been started regardless, but Dr. Ray Mundy, Director of UMSL’s Transportation Scholars Program, believes that the MTC support of the transportation educational program at UMSL was the essential component in establishing a Ph.D. program. At ISU, the MTC has been instrumental in establishing two research and outreach programs, and both have themes that are related to the MTC’s theme of “Transportation System Management and Operation.” The Center for Weather Impacts on Mobility and Safety (C-WIMS) was recently established, and the Center for Road Infrastructure Management and Operations (RIMO) is in the process of being established. The MTC has a critical role in establishing each of these two programs. As part of the on-going MTC program, we have established an effective network that promotes the education of future transportation professionals and the development of new knowledge on how to manage transportation infrastructure and services in a more sustainable manner. The MTC has a track record of developing outstanding students; these students are now becoming leaders in the private sector, government, and academia. The MTC has also supported the development of an extensive research portfolio related to sustainable transportation asset management. More research projects are in the pipeline. Finally, the MTC has dedicated itself to the dissemination of asset management research results through an ongoing technology transfer program. This document provides a progress for the latest fiscal year of operation of the MTC, which ran from October 2004 through September 2005.

Midwest Transportation Consortium Annual Report, 2007-2008

The Midwest Transportation Consortium (MTC) recently completed its sixth year of operation. The MTC has become an established portion of the research and educational programs at ISU and its partner universities. The MTC continues to emphasize its primary focus of developing human capital. For example, this semester, Fall, 2005, ISU has graduate scholars in its educational program. However, we also recognize that the federal grant is an opportunity to build programs at our respective universities that continue after the U.S. DOT UTCP may end. An example of building a long lasting program is the University of Missouri – St. Louis’ (UMSL) and its development of a transportation Ph.D. program in their business college. Admittedly, this program could have been started regardless, but Dr. Ray Mundy, Director of UMSL’s Transportation Scholars Program, believes that the MTC support of the transportation educational program at UMSL was the essential component in establishing a Ph.D. program. At ISU, the MTC has been instrumental in establishing two research and outreach programs, and both have themes that are related to the MTC’s theme of “Transportation System Management and Operation.” The Center for Weather Impacts on Mobility and Safety (C-WIMS) was recently established, and the Center for Road Infrastructure Management and Operations (RIMO) is in the process of being established. The MTC has a critical role in establishing each of these two programs. As part of the on-going MTC program, we have established an effective network that promotes the education of future transportation professionals and the development of new knowledge on how to manage transportation infrastructure and services in a more sustainable manner. The MTC has a track record of developing outstanding students; these students are now becoming leaders in the private sector, government, and academia. The MTC has also supported the development of an extensive research portfolio related to sustainable transportation asset management. More research projects are in the pipeline. Finally, the MTC has dedicated itself to the dissemination of asset management research results through an ongoing technology transfer program. This document provides a progress for the latest fiscal year of operation of the MTC, which ran from October 2004 through September 2005.

Midwest Transportation Consortium Annual Report, 2009

The Midwest Transportation Consortium (MTC) recently completed its sixth year of operation. The MTC has become an established portion of the research and educational programs at ISU and its partner universities. The MTC continues to emphasize its primary focus of developing human capital. For example, this semester, Fall, 2005, ISU has graduate scholars in its educational program. However, we also recognize that the federal grant is an opportunity to build programs at our respective universities that continue after the U.S. DOT UTCP may end. An example of building a long lasting program is the University of Missouri – St. Louis’ (UMSL) and its development of a transportation Ph.D. program in their business college. Admittedly, this program could have been started regardless, but Dr. Ray Mundy, Director of UMSL’s Transportation Scholars Program, believes that the MTC support of the transportation educational program at UMSL was the essential component in establishing a Ph.D. program. At ISU, the MTC has been instrumental in establishing two research and outreach programs, and both have themes that are related to the MTC’s theme of “Transportation System Management and Operation.” The Center for Weather Impacts on Mobility and Safety (C-WIMS) was recently established, and the Center for Road Infrastructure Management and Operations (RIMO) is in the process of being established. The MTC has a critical role in establishing each of these two programs. As part of the on-going MTC program, we have established an effective network that promotes the education of future transportation professionals and the development of new knowledge on how to manage transportation infrastructure and services in a more sustainable manner. The MTC has a track record of developing outstanding students; these students are now becoming leaders in the private sector, government, and academia. The MTC has also supported the development of an extensive research portfolio related to sustainable transportation asset management. More research projects are in the pipeline. Finally, the MTC has dedicated itself to the dissemination of asset management research results through an ongoing technology transfer program. This document provides a progress for the latest fiscal year of operation of the MTC, which ran from October 2004 through September 2005.

Midwest Transportation Consortium Annual Report, 2010

The Midwest Transportation Consortium (MTC) recently completed its sixth year of operation. The MTC has become an established portion of the research and educational programs at ISU and its partner universities. The MTC continues to emphasize its primary focus of developing human capital. For example, this semester, Fall, 2005, ISU has graduate scholars in its educational program. However, we also recognize that the federal grant is an opportunity to build programs at our respective universities that continue after the U.S. DOT UTCP may end. An example of building a long lasting program is the University of Missouri – St. Louis’ (UMSL) and its development of a transportation Ph.D. program in their business college. Admittedly, this program could have been started regardless, but Dr. Ray Mundy, Director of UMSL’s Transportation Scholars Program, believes that the MTC support of the transportation educational program at UMSL was the essential component in establishing a Ph.D. program. At ISU, the MTC has been instrumental in establishing two research and outreach programs, and both have themes that are related to the MTC’s theme of “Transportation System Management and Operation.” The Center for Weather Impacts on Mobility and Safety (C-WIMS) was recently established, and the Center for Road Infrastructure Management and Operations (RIMO) is in the process of being established. The MTC has a critical role in establishing each of these two programs. As part of the on-going MTC program, we have established an effective network that promotes the education of future transportation professionals and the development of new knowledge on how to manage transportation infrastructure and services in a more sustainable manner. The MTC has a track record of developing outstanding students; these students are now becoming leaders in the private sector, government, and academia. The MTC has also supported the development of an extensive research portfolio related to sustainable transportation asset management. More research projects are in the pipeline. Finally, the MTC has dedicated itself to the dissemination of asset management research results through an ongoing technology transfer program. This document provides a progress for the latest fiscal year of operation of the MTC, which ran from October 2004 through September 2005.

Midwest Transportation Consortium Annual Report, 2011

The Midwest Transportation Consortium (MTC) recently completed its sixth year of operation. The MTC has become an established portion of the research and educational programs at ISU and its partner universities. The MTC continues to emphasize its primary focus of developing human capital. For example, this semester, Fall, 2005, ISU has graduate scholars in its educational program. However, we also recognize that the federal grant is an opportunity to build programs at our respective universities that continue after the U.S. DOT UTCP may end. An example of building a long lasting program is the University of Missouri – St. Louis’ (UMSL) and its development of a transportation Ph.D. program in their business college. Admittedly, this program could have been started regardless, but Dr. Ray Mundy, Director of UMSL’s Transportation Scholars Program, believes that the MTC support of the transportation educational program at UMSL was the essential component in establishing a Ph.D. program. At ISU, the MTC has been instrumental in establishing two research and outreach programs, and both have themes that are related to the MTC’s theme of “Transportation System Management and Operation.” The Center for Weather Impacts on Mobility and Safety (C-WIMS) was recently established, and the Center for Road Infrastructure Management and Operations (RIMO) is in the process of being established. The MTC has a critical role in establishing each of these two programs. As part of the on-going MTC program, we have established an effective network that promotes the education of future transportation professionals and the development of new knowledge on how to manage transportation infrastructure and services in a more sustainable manner. The MTC has a track record of developing outstanding students; these students are now becoming leaders in the private sector, government, and academia. The MTC has also supported the development of an extensive research portfolio related to sustainable transportation asset management. More research projects are in the pipeline. Finally, the MTC has dedicated itself to the dissemination of asset management research results through an ongoing technology transfer program. This document provides a progress for the latest fiscal year of operation of the MTC, which ran from October 2004 through September 2005.

Herramientas estadísticas para el estudio de perfiles de riesgo

En este documento se ilustra de un modo práctico, el empleo de tres instrumentos que permiten al actuario definir grupos arancelarios y estimar premios de riesgo en el proceso que tasa la clase para el seguro de no vida. El primero es el análisis de segmentación (CHAID y XAID) usado en primer lugar en 1997 por UNESPA en su cartera común de coches. El segundo es un proceso de selección gradual con el modelo de regresión a base de distancia. Y el tercero es un proceso con el modelo conocido y generalizado de regresión linear, que representa la técnica más moderna en la bibliografía actuarial. De estos últimos, si combinamos funciones de eslabón diferentes y distribuciones de error, podemos obtener el aditivo clásico y modelos multiplicativos