General equilibrium with asymmetric information: a dual approach

We study markets where the characteristics or decisions of certain agents are relevant but not known to their trading partners. Assuming exclusive transactions, the environment is described as a continuum economy with indivisible commodities. We characterize incentive efficient allocations as solutions to linear programming problems and appeal to duality theory to demonstrate the generic existence of external effects in these markets. Because under certain conditions such effects may generate non-convexities, randomization emerges as a theoretic possibility. In characterizing market equilibria we show that, consistently with the personalized nature of transactions, prices are generally non-linear in the underlying consumption. On the other hand, external effects may have critical implications for market efficiency. With adverse selection, in fact, cross-subsidization across agents with different private information may be necessary for optimality, and so, the market need not even achieve an incentive efficient allocation. In contrast, for the case of a single commodity, we find that when informational asymmetries arise after the trading period (e.g. moral hazard; ex post hidden types) external effects are fully internalized at a market equilibrium.

Asymmetries in the capacity-inflation trade-off

This paper analyzes the joint dynamics of two key macroeconomic variables for the conduct of monetary policy: inflation and the aggregate capacity utilization rate. An econometric procedure useful for estimating dynamic rational expectation models with unobserved components is developed and applied in this context. The method combines the flexibility of the unobserved components approach, based on the Kalman recursion, with the power of the general method of moments estimation procedure. A 'hyb id' Phillips curve relating inflation to the capacity utilization gap and incorporating forward and backward looking components is estimated. The results show that such a relationship in non-linear: the slope of the Phillips curve depends significantly on the magnitude of the capacity gap. These findings provide support for studying the implications of asymmetricmonetary policy rules.

Extracción de parámetros de un resonador FBAR por optimización

L’objectiu d’aquest projecte que consisteix a elaborar un algoritme d’optimització que permeti, mitjançant un ajust de dades per mínims quadrats, la extracció dels paràmetres del circuit equivalent que composen el model teòric d’un ressonador FBAR, a partir de les mesures dels paràmetres S. Per a dur a terme aquest treball, es desenvolupa en primer lloc tota la teoria necessària de ressonadors FBAR. Començant pel funcionament i l’estructura, i mostrant especial interès en el modelat d’aquests ressonadors mitjançant els models de Mason, Butterworth Van-Dyke i BVD Modificat. En segon terme, s’estudia la teoria sobre optimització i programació No-Lineal. Un cop s’ha exposat la teoria, es procedeix a la descripció de l’algoritme implementat. Aquest algoritme utilitza una estratègia de múltiples passos que agilitzen l'extracció dels paràmetres del ressonador.

Relationship of physical activity with motor skills, aerobic fitness and body fat in preschool children: a cross-sectional and longitudinal study (Ballabeina).

Adiposity, low aerobic fitness and low levels of activity are all associated with clustered cardiovascular disease risk in children and their high prevalence represents a major public health concern. The aim of this study is to investigate the relationship of objectively measured physical activity (PA) with motor skills (agility and balance), aerobic fitness and %body fat in young children. This study is a cross-sectional and longitudinal analyses using mixed linear models. Longitudinal data were adjusted for baseline outcome parameters. In all, 217 healthy preschool children (age 4-6 years, 48% boys) participated in this study. PA (accelerometers), agility (obstacle course), dynamic balance (balance beam), aerobic fitness (20-m shuttle run) and %body fat (bioelectric impedance) at baseline and 9 months later. PA was positively associated with both motor skills and aerobic fitness at baseline as well as with their longitudinal changes. Specifically, only vigorous, but not total or moderate PA, was related to changes in aerobic fitness. Higher PA was associated with less %body fat at baseline, but not with its change. Conversely, baseline motor skills, aerobic fitness or %body fat were not related to changes in PA. In young children, baseline PA was associated with improvements in motor skills and in aerobic fitness, an important determinant of cardiovascular risk.

Reproducibility of free-breathing cardiovascular magnetic resonance coronary angiography.

OBJECTIVE: Contemporary free-breathing non contrast enhanced cardiovascular magnetic resonance angiography (CMRA) was qualitatively and quantitatively evaluated to ascertain the reproducibility of the method for coronary artery luminal dimension measurements. SUBJECTS AND METHODS: Twenty-two healthy volunteers (mean age 32 +/- 7 years, 12 males) without coronary artery disease were imaged at 2 centers (1 each in Europe and North America) using navigator-gated and corrected SSFP CMRA on a commercial whole body 1.5T System. Repeat images of right (RCA, n = 21), left anterior descending (LAD, n = 14) and left circumflex (LCX, n = 14) coronary arteries were obtained in separate sessions using identical scan protocol and imaging parameters. True visible vessel length, signal-to-noise (SNR), contrast-to-noise ratios (CNR) and the average luminal diameter over the first 4 cm of the vessel were measured. Intra-observer, inter-observer and inter-scan reproducibility of coronary artery luminal diameter were determined using Pearson's correlation, Bland-Altman analysis and intraclass correlation coefficients (ICC). RESULTS: CNR, SNR and the mean length of the RCA, LAD and LCX imaged for original and repeat scans were not significantly different (all p > 0.30). There was a high degree of intra-observer, inter-observer and inter-scan agreements for RCA, LAD and LCX luminal diameter respectively on Bland-Altman and ICC analysis (ICC's for RCA: 0.98. 0.98 and 0.86; LAD: 0.89, 0.89 and 0.63; LCX: 0.95, 0.94 and 0.79). CONCLUSION: In a 2-center study, we demonstrate that free-breathing 3D SSFP CMRA can visualize long continuous segments of coronary vessels with highly reproducible measurements of luminal diameter.

A priori ratemaking using bivariate poisson regression models

In automobile insurance, it is useful to achieve a priori ratemaking by resorting to gene- ralized linear models, and here the Poisson regression model constitutes the most widely accepted basis. However, insurance companies distinguish between claims with or without bodily injuries, or claims with full or partial liability of the insured driver. This paper exa- mines an a priori ratemaking procedure when including two di®erent types of claim. When assuming independence between claim types, the premium can be obtained by summing the premiums for each type of guarantee and is dependent on the rating factors chosen. If the independence assumption is relaxed, then it is unclear as to how the tari® system might be a®ected. In order to answer this question, bivariate Poisson regression models, suitable for paired count data exhibiting correlation, are introduced. It is shown that the usual independence assumption is unrealistic here. These models are applied to an automobile insurance claims database containing 80,994 contracts belonging to a Spanish insurance company. Finally, the consequences for pure and loaded premiums when the independence assumption is relaxed by using a bivariate Poisson regression model are analysed.

Predicting hematologic toxicity in patients undergoing radioimmunotherapy with 90Y-ibritumomab tiuxetan or 131I-tositumomab.

This study aimed at identifying clinical factors for predicting hematologic toxicity after radioimmunotherapy with (90)Y-ibritumomab tiuxetan or (131)I-tositumomab in clinical practice. Hematologic data were available from 14 non-Hodgkin lymphoma patients treated with (90)Y-ibritumomab tiuxetan and 18 who received (131)I-tositumomab. The percentage baseline at nadir and 4 wk post nadir and the time to nadir were selected as the toxicity indicators for both platelets and neutrophils. Multiple linear regression analysis was performed to identify significant predictors (P < 0.05) of each indicator. For both platelets and neutrophils, pooled and separate analyses of (90)Y-ibritumomab tiuxetan and (131)I-tositumomab data yielded the time elapsed since the last chemotherapy as the only significant predictor of the percentage baseline at nadir. The extent of bone marrow involvement was not a significant factor in this study, possibly because of the short time elapsed since the last chemotherapy of the 7 patients with bone marrow involvement. Because both treatments were designed to deliver a comparable bone marrow dose, this factor also was not significant. None of the 14 factors considered was predictive of the time to nadir. The R(2) value for the model predicting percentage baseline at nadir was 0.60 for platelets and 0.40 for neutrophils. This model predicted the platelet and neutrophil toxicity grade to within ±1 for 28 and 30 of the 32 patients, respectively. For the 7 patients predicted with grade I thrombocytopenia, 6 of whom had actual grade I-II, dosing might be increased to improve treatment efficacy. The elapsed time since the last chemotherapy can be used to predict hematologic toxicity and customize the current dosing method in radioimmunotherapy.

The ghost of past species occurrence: improving species distribution models for presence-only data

1. Model-based approaches have been used increasingly in conservation biology over recent years. Species presence data used for predictive species distribution modelling are abundant in natural history collections, whereas reliable absence data are sparse, most notably for vagrant species such as butterflies and snakes. As predictive methods such as generalized linear models (GLM) require absence data, various strategies have been proposed to select pseudo-absence data. However, only a few studies exist that compare different approaches to generating these pseudo-absence data. 2. Natural history collection data are usually available for long periods of time (decades or even centuries), thus allowing historical considerations. However, this historical dimension has rarely been assessed in studies of species distribution, although there is great potential for understanding current patterns, i.e. the past is the key to the present. 3. We used GLM to model the distributions of three 'target' butterfly species, Melitaea didyma, Coenonympha tullia and Maculinea teleius, in Switzerland. We developed and compared four strategies for defining pools of pseudo-absence data and applied them to natural history collection data from the last 10, 30 and 100 years. Pools included: (i) sites without target species records; (ii) sites where butterfly species other than the target species were present; (iii) sites without butterfly species but with habitat characteristics similar to those required by the target species; and (iv) a combination of the second and third strategies. Models were evaluated and compared by the total deviance explained, the maximized Kappa and the area under the curve (AUC). 4. Among the four strategies, model performance was best for strategy 3. Contrary to expectations, strategy 2 resulted in even lower model performance compared with models with pseudo-absence data simulated totally at random (strategy 1). 5. Independent of the strategy model, performance was enhanced when sites with historical species presence data were not considered as pseudo-absence data. Therefore, the combination of strategy 3 with species records from the last 100 years achieved the highest model performance. 6. Synthesis and applications. The protection of suitable habitat for species survival or reintroduction in rapidly changing landscapes is a high priority among conservationists. Model-based approaches offer planning authorities the possibility of delimiting priority areas for species detection or habitat protection. The performance of these models can be enhanced by fitting them with pseudo-absence data relying on large archives of natural history collection species presence data rather than using randomly sampled pseudo-absence data.

A New Model Of Trend Inflation

This paper introduces a new model of trend (or underlying) inflation. In contrast to many earlier approaches, which allow for trend inflation to evolve according to a random walk, ours is a bounded model which ensures that trend inflation is constrained to lie in an interval. The bounds of this interval can either be fixed or estimated from the data. Our model also allows for a time-varying degree of persistence in the transitory component of inflation. The bounds placed on trend inflation mean that standard econometric methods for estimating linear Gaussian state space models cannot be used and we develop a posterior simulation algorithm for estimating the bounded trend inflation model. In an empirical exercise with CPI inflation we find the model to work well, yielding more sensible measures of trend inflation and forecasting better than popular alternatives such as the unobserved components stochastic volatility model.

Free Mobility and Taste-Homogeneity of Jurisdiction Structures

We consider a population of agents distributed on the unit interval. Agents form jurisdictions in order to provide a public facility and share its costs equally. This creates an incentive to form large entities. Individuals also incur a transportation cost depending on their location and that of the facility which makes small jurisdictions advantageous. We consider a fairly general class of distributions of agents and generalize previous versions of this model by allowing for non-linear transportation costs. We show that, in general, jurisdictions are not necessarily homogeneous. However, they are if facilities are always intraterritory and transportation costs are superadditive. Superadditivity can be weakened to strictly increasing and strictly concave when agents are uniformly distributed. Keywords: Consecutiveness, stratification, local public goods, coalition formation, country formation. JEL Classification: C71 (Cooperative Games), D71 (Social Choice; Clubs; Committees; Associations), H73 (Interjurisdictional Differentials and Their Effects).

Asynchronous growth and competition in a two-sex age-structured population model

Asynchronous exponential growth has been extensively studied in population dynamics. In this paper we find out the asymptotic behaviour in a non-linear age-dependent model which takes into account sexual reproduction interactions. The main feature of our model is that the non-linear process converges to a linear one as the solution becomes large, so that the population undergoes asynchronous growth. The steady states analysis and the corresponding stability analysis are completely made and are summarized in a bifurcation diagram according to the parameter R0. Furthermore the effect of intraspecific competition is taken into account, leading to complex dynamics around steady states.

Synergistic epistasis and alternative hypotheses.

Inbreeding generally results in deleterious shifts in mean fitness. If the fitness response to increasing inbreeding coefficient is non-linear, this suggests a contribution of epistasis to inbreeding depression. In a cross-breeding experiment, Salathe & Ebert (2003. J. Evol. Biol. 16: 976-985) tested and found the presence of this non-linearity in Daphnia magna. They argue that epistatic interactions cause this non-linearity. We argue here that their experimental protocol does not allow disentangling the effect of synergistic epistasis from two alternative hypotheses, namely hybrid vigour and statistical non-independence of data.

Mobile termination and mobile penetration

In this paper, we study how access pricing affects network competition when subscription demand is elastic and each network uses non-linear prices and can apply termination-based price discrimination. In the case of a fixed per minute termination charge, we find that a reduction of the termination charge below cost has two opposing effects: it softens competition but helps to internalize network externalities. The former reduces mobile penetration while the latter boosts it. We find that firms always prefer termination charge below cost for either motive while the regulator prefers termination below cost only when this boosts penetration. Next, we consider the retail benchmarking approach (Jeon and Hurkens, 2008) that determines termination charges as a function of retail prices and show that this approach allows the regulator to increase penetration without distorting call volumes.

The behavioral relevance and top-down susceptibility of early, low level multisensory interactions in humans

Abstract (English)General backgroundMultisensory stimuli are easier to recognize, can improve learning and a processed faster compared to unisensory ones. As such, the ability an organism has to extract and synthesize relevant sensory inputs across multiple sensory modalities shapes his perception of and interaction with the environment. A major question in the scientific field is how the brain extracts and fuses relevant information to create a unified perceptual representation (but also how it segregates unrelated information). This fusion between the senses has been termed "multisensory integration", a notion that derives from seminal animal single-cell studies performed in the superior colliculus, a subcortical structure shown to create a multisensory output differing from the sum of its unisensory inputs. At the cortical level, integration of multisensory information is traditionally deferred to higher classical associative cortical regions within the frontal, temporal and parietal lobes, after extensive processing within the sensory-specific and segregated pathways. However, many anatomical, electrophysiological and neuroimaging findings now speak for multisensory convergence and interactions as a distributed process beginning much earlier than previously appreciated and within the initial stages of sensory processing.The work presented in this thesis is aimed at studying the neural basis and mechanisms of how the human brain combines sensory information between the senses of hearing and touch. Early latency non-linear auditory-somatosensory neural response interactions have been repeatedly observed in humans and non-human primates. Whether these early, low-level interactions are directly influencing behavioral outcomes remains an open question as they have been observed under diverse experimental circumstances such as anesthesia, passive stimulation, as well as speeded reaction time tasks. Under laboratory settings, it has been demonstrated that simple reaction times to auditory-somatosensory stimuli are facilitated over their unisensory counterparts both when delivered to the same spatial location or not, suggesting that audi- tory-somatosensory integration must occur in cerebral regions with large-scale spatial representations. However experiments that required the spatial processing of the stimuli have observed effects limited to spatially aligned conditions or varying depending on which body part was stimulated. Whether those divergences stem from task requirements and/or the need for spatial processing has not been firmly established.Hypotheses and experimental resultsIn a first study, we hypothesized that auditory-somatosensory early non-linear multisensory neural response interactions are relevant to behavior. Performing a median split according to reaction time of a subset of behavioral and electroencephalographic data, we found that the earliest non-linear multisensory interactions measured within the EEG signal (i.e. between 40-83ms post-stimulus onset) were specific to fast reaction times indicating a direct correlation of early neural response interactions and behavior.In a second study, we hypothesized that the relevance of spatial information for task performance has an impact on behavioral measures of auditory-somatosensory integration. Across two psychophysical experiments we show that facilitated detection occurs even when attending to spatial information, with no modulation according to spatial alignment of the stimuli. On the other hand, discrimination performance with probes, quantified using sensitivity (d'), is impaired following multisensory trials in general and significantly more so following misaligned multisensory trials.In a third study, we hypothesized that behavioral improvements might vary depending which body part is stimulated. Preliminary results suggest a possible dissociation between behavioral improvements andERPs. RTs to multisensory stimuli were modulated by space only in the case when somatosensory stimuli were delivered to the neck whereas multisensory ERPs were modulated by spatial alignment for both types of somatosensory stimuli.ConclusionThis thesis provides insight into the functional role played by early, low-level multisensory interac-tions. Combining psychophysics and electrical neuroimaging techniques we demonstrate the behavioral re-levance of early and low-level interactions in the normal human system. Moreover, we show that these early interactions are hermetic to top-down influences on spatial processing suggesting their occurrence within cerebral regions having access to large-scale spatial representations. We finally highlight specific interactions between auditory space and somatosensory stimulation on different body parts. Gaining an in-depth understanding of how multisensory integration normally operates is of central importance as it will ultimately permit us to consider how the impaired brain could benefit from rehabilitation with multisensory stimula-Abstract (French)Background théoriqueDes stimuli multisensoriels sont plus faciles à reconnaître, peuvent améliorer l'apprentissage et sont traités plus rapidement comparé à des stimuli unisensoriels. Ainsi, la capacité qu'un organisme possède à extraire et à synthétiser avec ses différentes modalités sensorielles des inputs sensoriels pertinents, façonne sa perception et son interaction avec l'environnement. Une question majeure dans le domaine scientifique est comment le cerveau parvient à extraire et à fusionner des stimuli pour créer une représentation percep- tuelle cohérente (mais aussi comment il isole les stimuli sans rapport). Cette fusion entre les sens est appelée "intégration multisensorielle", une notion qui provient de travaux effectués dans le colliculus supérieur chez l'animal, une structure sous-corticale possédant des neurones produisant une sortie multisensorielle différant de la somme des entrées unisensorielles. Traditionnellement, l'intégration d'informations multisen- sorielles au niveau cortical est considérée comme se produisant tardivement dans les aires associatives supérieures dans les lobes frontaux, temporaux et pariétaux, suite à un traitement extensif au sein de régions unisensorielles primaires. Cependant, plusieurs découvertes anatomiques, électrophysiologiques et de neuroimageries remettent en question ce postulat, suggérant l'existence d'une convergence et d'interactions multisensorielles précoces.Les travaux présentés dans cette thèse sont destinés à mieux comprendre les bases neuronales et les mécanismes impliqués dans la combinaison d'informations sensorielles entre les sens de l'audition et du toucher chez l'homme. Des interactions neuronales non-linéaires précoces audio-somatosensorielles ont été observées à maintes reprises chez l'homme et le singe dans des circonstances aussi variées que sous anes- thésie, avec stimulation passive, et lors de tâches nécessitant un comportement (une détection simple de stimuli, par exemple). Ainsi, le rôle fonctionnel joué par ces interactions à une étape du traitement de l'information si précoce demeure une question ouverte. Il a également été démontré que les temps de réaction en réponse à des stimuli audio-somatosensoriels sont facilités par rapport à leurs homologues unisensoriels indépendamment de leur position spatiale. Ce résultat suggère que l'intégration audio- somatosensorielle se produit dans des régions cérébrales possédant des représentations spatiales à large échelle. Cependant, des expériences qui ont exigé un traitement spatial des stimuli ont produits des effets limités à des conditions où les stimuli multisensoriels étaient, alignés dans l'espace ou encore comme pouvant varier selon la partie de corps stimulée. Il n'a pas été établi à ce jour si ces divergences pourraient être dues aux contraintes liées à la tâche et/ou à la nécessité d'un traitement de l'information spatiale.Hypothèse et résultats expérimentauxDans une première étude, nous avons émis l'hypothèse que les interactions audio- somatosensorielles précoces sont pertinentes pour le comportement. En effectuant un partage des temps de réaction par rapport à la médiane d'un sous-ensemble de données comportementales et électroencépha- lographiques, nous avons constaté que les interactions multisensorielles qui se produisent à des latences précoces (entre 40-83ms) sont spécifique aux temps de réaction rapides indiquant une corrélation directe entre ces interactions neuronales précoces et le comportement.Dans une deuxième étude, nous avons émis l'hypothèse que si l'information spatiale devient perti-nente pour la tâche, elle pourrait exercer une influence sur des mesures comportementales de l'intégration audio-somatosensorielles. Dans deux expériences psychophysiques, nous montrons que même si les participants prêtent attention à l'information spatiale, une facilitation de la détection se produit et ce toujours indépendamment de la configuration spatiale des stimuli. Cependant, la performance de discrimination, quantifiée à l'aide d'un index de sensibilité (d') est altérée suite aux essais multisensoriels en général et de manière plus significative pour les essais multisensoriels non-alignés dans l'espace.Dans une troisième étude, nous avons émis l'hypothèse que des améliorations comportementales pourraient différer selon la partie du corps qui est stimulée (la main vs. la nuque). Des résultats préliminaires suggèrent une dissociation possible entre une facilitation comportementale et les potentiels évoqués. Les temps de réactions étaient influencés par la configuration spatiale uniquement dans le cas ou les stimuli somatosensoriels étaient sur la nuque alors que les potentiels évoqués étaient modulés par l'alignement spatial pour les deux types de stimuli somatosensorielles.ConclusionCette thèse apporte des éléments nouveaux concernant le rôle fonctionnel joué par les interactions multisensorielles précoces de bas niveau. En combinant la psychophysique et la neuroimagerie électrique, nous démontrons la pertinence comportementale des ces interactions dans le système humain normal. Par ailleurs, nous montrons que ces interactions précoces sont hermétiques aux influences dites «top-down» sur le traitement spatial suggérant leur occurrence dans des régions cérébrales ayant accès à des représentations spatiales de grande échelle. Nous soulignons enfin des interactions spécifiques entre l'espace auditif et la stimulation somatosensorielle sur différentes parties du corps. Approfondir la connaissance concernant les bases neuronales et les mécanismes impliqués dans l'intégration multisensorielle dans le système normale est d'une importance centrale car elle permettra d'examiner et de mieux comprendre comment le cerveau déficient pourrait bénéficier d'une réhabilitation avec la stimulation multisensorielle.

Association of CYP3A5 genotypes with blood pressure and renal function in African families.

OBJECTIVE: Renal cytochrome P450 3A5 (CYP3A5) activity has been associated with blood pressure and salt sensitivity in humans. We determined whether CYP3A5 polymorphisms are associated with ambulatory blood pressure (ABP) and with glomerular filtration rate (GFR) in African families. METHODS: Using a cross-sectional design, 375 individuals from 72 families, each with at least two hypertensive siblings, were recruited through a hypertension register in the Seychelles (Indian Ocean). We analyzed the association between the CYP3A5 alleles (*1, *3, *6 and *7) and ABP, GFR and renal sodium handling (fractional excretion of lithium), from pedigree data, allowing for other covariates and familial correlations. RESULTS: CYP3A5*1 carriers increased their daytime systolic and diastolic ABP with age (0.55 and 0.23 mmHg/year) more than non-carriers (0.21 and 0.04 mmHg/year). CYP3A5*1 had a significant main effect on daytime systolic/diastolic ABP [regression coefficient (SE): -29.6 (10.0)/-8.2 (4.1) mmHg, P = 0.003/0.045, respectively] and this effect was modified by age (CYP3A5*1 x age interactions, P = 0.017/0.018). For night-time ABP, the effect of CYP3A5*1 was modified by urinary sodium excretion, not by age. For renal function, CYP3A5*1 carriers had a 7.6(3.8) ml/min lower GFR (P = 0.045) than non-carriers. Proximal sodium reabsorption decreased with age in non-carriers, but not in CYP3A5*1 carriers (P for interaction = 0.02). CONCLUSIONS: These data demonstrate that CYP3A5 polymorphisms are associated with ambulatory BP, CYP3A5*1 carriers showing a higher age- and sodium- related increase in ABP than non-carriers. The age effect may be due, in part, to the action of CYP3A5 on renal sodium handling.