An overview of some historical brazilian macroeconomic series and some open questions

This paper presents an overview of the Brazilian macroeconomy by analyzing the evolution of some specific time series. The presentation is made through a sequence of graphs. Several remarkable historical points and open questions come up in the data. These include, among others, the drop in output growth as of 1980, the clear shift from investments to government current expenditures which started in the beginning of the 80s, the notable way how money, prices and exchange rate correlate in an environment of permanently high inflation, the historical coexistence of high rates of growth and high rates of inflation, as well as the drastic increase of the velocity of circulation of money between the 70s and the mid-90s. It is also shown that, although net external liabilities have increased substantially in current dollars after the Real Plan, its ratio with respect to exports in 2004 is practically the same as the one existing in 1986; and that residents in Brazil, in average, owed two more months of their final income (GNP) to abroad between 1995-2004 than they did between 1990 and 1994. Variance decompositions show that money has been important to explain prices, but not output (GDP).

Brazilian indexing and inertial inflation: evidence from time-varying estimates of an inflation transfer function

This paper is a theoretica1 and empirica1 study of the re1ationship between indexing po1icy and feedback mechanisms in the inflationary adjustment process in Brazil. The focus of our study is on two policy issues: (1) did the Brazilian system of indexing of interest rates, the exchange rate, and wages make inflation so dependent on its own past values that it created a significant feedback process and inertia in the behaviour of inflation in and (2) was the feedback effect of past inf1ation upon itself so strong that dominated the effect of monetary/fiscal variables upon current inflation? This paper develops a simple model designed to capture several "stylized facts" of Brazi1ian indexing po1icy. Separate ru1es of "backward indexing" for interest rates, the exchange rate, and wages, reflecting the evolution of po1icy changes in Brazil, are incorporated in a two-sector model of industrial and agricultural prices. A transfer function derived irom this mode1 shows inflation depending on three factors: (1) past values of inflation, (2) monetary and fiscal variables, and (3) supply- .shock variables. The indexing rules for interest rates, the exchange rate, and wages place restrictions on the coefficients of the transfer function. Variations in the policy-determined parameters of the indexing rules imply changes in the coefficients of the transfer function for inflation. One implication of this model, in contrast to previous results derived in analytically simpler models of indexing, is that a higher degree of indexing does not make current inflation more responsive to current monetary shocks. The empirical section of this paper studies the central hypotheses of this model through estimation of the inflation transfer function with time-varying parameters. The results show a systematic non-random variation of the transfer function coefficients closely synchronized with changes in the observed values of the wage-indexing parameters. Non-parametric tests show the variation of the transfer function coefficients to be statistically significant at the time of the changes in wage indexing rules in Brazil. As the degree of indexing increased, the inflation feadback coefficients increased, while the effect of external price and agricultura shocs progressively increased and monetary effects progressively decreased.

Evaluating the existence of structural change in the brazilian term structure of interest: evidence based on cointegration models with structural break

This paper investigates whether there is evidence of structural change in the Brazilian term structure of interest rates. Multivariate cointegration techniques are used to verify this evidence. Two econometrics models are estimated. The rst one is a Vector Autoregressive Model with Error Correction Mechanism (VECM) with smooth transition in the deterministic coe¢ cients (Ripatti and Saikkonen [25]). The second one is a VECM with abrupt structural change formulated by Hansen [13]. Two datasets were analysed. The rst one contains a nominal interest rate with maturity up to three years. The second data set focuses on maturity up to one year. The rst data set focuses on a sample period from 1995 to 2010 and the second from 1998 to 2010. The frequency is monthly. The estimated models suggest the existence of structural change in the Brazilian term structure. It was possible to document the existence of multiple regimes using both techniques for both databases. The risk premium for di¤erent spreads varied considerably during the earliest period of both samples and seemed to converge to stable and lower values at the end of the sample period. Long-term risk premiums seemed to converge to inter-national standards, although the Brazilian term structure is still subject to liquidity problems for longer maturities.

An overview of some historical Brazilian macroeconomic series and some open questions

This paper presents an overview of the Brazilian macroeconomy by analyzing the evolution of some specific time series. The presentation is made through a sequence of graphs. Several remarkable historical points and open questions come up in the data. These include, among others, the drop in output growth as of 1980, the clear shift from investments to government current expenditures which started in the beginning of the 80s, the notable way how money, prices and exchange rate correlate in an environment of permanently high inHation, the historical coexistence of high rates of growth and high rates of inHation, as well as the drastic increase of the velocity of circulation of money between the 70s and the mid-90s. It is also shown that, although net external liabilities have increased substantially in current dollars after the Real Plan, its ratio with respect to exports in 2004 is practically the same as the one existing in 1986; and that residents in Brazil, in average, owed two more months of their final income (GNP) to abroad between 1995-2004 than they did between 1990 and 1994. Variance decompositions show that money has been important to explain prices, but not output (GDP).

Affine processes, arbitrage-Free Term structures of legendre polynomials,and option pricing

Multivariate Affine term structure models have been increasingly used for pricing derivatives in fixed income markets. In these models, uncertainty of the term structure is driven by a state vector, while the short rate is an affine function of this vector. The model is characterized by a specific form for the stochastic differential equation (SDE) for the evolution of the state vector. This SDE presents restrictions on its drift term which rule out arbitrages in the market. In this paper we solve the following inverse problem: Suppose the term structure of interest rates is modeled by a linear combination of Legendre polynomials with random coefficients. Is there any SDE for these coefficients which rules out arbitrages? This problem is of particular empirical interest because the Legendre model is an example of factor model with clear interpretation for each factor, in which regards movements of the term structure. Moreover, the Affine structure of the Legendre model implies knowledge of its conditional characteristic function. From the econometric perspective, we propose arbitrage-free Legendre models to describe the evolution of the term structure. From the pricing perspective, we follow Duffie et al. (2000) in exploring Legendre conditional characteristic functions to obtain a computational tractable method to price fixed income derivatives. Closing the article, the empirical section presents precise evidence on the reward of implementing arbitrage-free parametric term structure models: The ability of obtaining a good approximation for the state vector by simply using cross sectional data.

In search of exchange rate predictability : a study about accuracy, consistency, and granger causality of forecasts generated by a Taylor Rule Model

Este estudo investiga o poder preditivo fora da amostra, um mês à frente, de um modelo baseado na regra de Taylor para previsão de taxas de câmbio. Revisamos trabalhos relevantes que concluem que modelos macroeconômicos podem explicar a taxa de câmbio de curto prazo. Também apresentamos estudos que são céticos em relação à capacidade de variáveis macroeconômicas preverem as variações cambiais. Para contribuir com o tema, este trabalho apresenta sua própria evidência através da implementação do modelo que demonstrou o melhor resultado preditivo descrito por Molodtsova e Papell (2009), o “symmetric Taylor rule model with heterogeneous coefficients, smoothing, and a constant”. Para isso, utilizamos uma amostra de 14 moedas em relação ao dólar norte-americano que permitiu a geração de previsões mensais fora da amostra de janeiro de 2000 até março de 2014. Assim como o critério adotado por Galimberti e Moura (2012), focamos em países que adotaram o regime de câmbio flutuante e metas de inflação, porém escolhemos moedas de países desenvolvidos e em desenvolvimento. Os resultados da nossa pesquisa corroboram o estudo de Rogoff e Stavrakeva (2008), ao constatar que a conclusão da previsibilidade da taxa de câmbio depende do teste estatístico adotado, sendo necessária a adoção de testes robustos e rigorosos para adequada avaliação do modelo. Após constatar não ser possível afirmar que o modelo implementado provém previsões mais precisas do que as de um passeio aleatório, avaliamos se, pelo menos, o modelo é capaz de gerar previsões “racionais”, ou “consistentes”. Para isso, usamos o arcabouço teórico e instrumental definido e implementado por Cheung e Chinn (1998) e concluímos que as previsões oriundas do modelo de regra de Taylor são “inconsistentes”. Finalmente, realizamos testes de causalidade de Granger com o intuito de verificar se os valores defasados dos retornos previstos pelo modelo estrutural explicam os valores contemporâneos observados. Apuramos que o modelo fundamental é incapaz de antecipar os retornos realizados.

Implied Hazard Rates Analysis Through Brazilian Corporate Debt

No Brasil, o mercado de crédito corporativo ainda é sub-aproveitado. A maioria dos participantes não exploram e não operam no mercado secundário, especialmente no caso de debêntures. Apesar disso, há inúmeras ferramentas que poderiam ajudar os participantes do mercado a analisar o risco de crédito e encorajá-los a operar esses riscos no mercado secundário. Essa dissertação introduz um modelo livre de arbitragem que extrai a Perda Esperada Neutra ao Risco Implícita nos preços de mercado. É uma forma reduzida do modelo proposto por Duffie and Singleton (1999) e modela a estrutura a termo das taxas de juros através de uma Função Constante por Partes. Através do modelo, foi possível analisar a Curva de Perda Esperada Neutra ao Risco Implícita através dos diferentes instrumentos de emissores corporativos brasileiros, utilizando Títulos de Dívida, Swaps de Crédito e Debêntures. Foi possível comparar as diferentes curvas e decidir, em cada caso analisado, qual a melhor alternativa para se tomar o risco de crédito da empresa, via Títulos de Dívida, Debêntures ou Swaps de Crédito.

Soil organic matter as a function of nitrogen fertilization in crop successions

A interdependência dos ciclos de C e N reflete-se nos teores de matéria orgânica do solo (MOS). em um delineamento experimental em blocos casualizados, com parcelas sub-subdivididas, tendo como tratamento principal cinco doses de nitrogênio de cobertura na cultura do milho (0; 60; 120; 180 e 240 kg ha-1 de N), como tratamento secundário, as sucessões milho-milho e soja-milho, e como sub-subtratamento, duas profundidades de amostragem (0 a 0.2 e 0.2 a 0.4 cm), avaliaram-se os teores de MOS e de C orgânico nas frações solúvel em água (C-SA), ácidos húmicos (C-AH), ácidos fúlvicos (C-AF) e humina (C-H), por meio do método clássico de fracionamento químico, em um Latossolo Vermelho eutrófico, de textura argilosa. A adubação nitrogenada não afetou os teores de MOS, mas favoreceu a síntese de compostos da fração C-AH. Houve efeito quadrático das doses de N nos teores de C-SA e de C-AF na sucessão milho-milho. A sucessão soja-milho resultou em maiores teores de MOS e de C orgânico na fração humina.

Root system of Panicum maximum Jacq. cv. IPR-86 Mil(e)over-capnio fertilized with nitrogen and submitted to rotational stocking

The effect of nitrogen on the root system of the species Panicum maximum Jacq. cv. IPR-86 Mil (e) over cap nio, under grazing, was evaluated. The N rates were 0; 150; 300 and 450 kg/ha. year. The root density was evaluated during pregrazing at five years of successive N application, in three depths (0-10; 10-20 and 20-40 cm) and the root growth at 7, 14, 21, and 35 days after grazing. The grazing method adopted was rotational stocking. Root length and root mass densities in pre-and post-grazing presented maximum values at rates 204, 206, 192, and 197 kg/ha of N, respectively. The root growth (in root length density) increased, on average, until 29 days after grazing at rates 0, 150, and 300 kg/ha; at 450 kg/ha N rate, the increase was linear. Independently of N rates, around 60 and 25% of IPR-86 Mil (e) over cap nio cultivar root system was concentrated in 0-10 and 10-20 cm depth, respectively.

A Study of Compost Added to a Casing Technique in Agaricus bisporus Cultivation from Phase III Bulk Compost

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

Straw decomposition of nitrogen-fertilized grasses intercropped with irrigated maize in an integrated crop-livestock system

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

Spontaneous Periodontitis Development in Diabetic Rats Involves an Unrestricted Expression of Inflammatory Cytokines and Tissue Destructive Factors in the Absence of Major Changes in Commensal Oral Microbiota

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Quality of life and its association with cardiovascular risk factors in a community health care program population

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate quality of life in a population that attended a specific community event on health care education, and to investigate the association of their quality of life with the presence of cardiovascular risk factors INTRODUCTION: Interest in health-related quality of life is growing worldwide as a consequence of increasing rates of chronic disease. However, little is known about the association between quality of life and cardiovascular risk factors. METHODS: This study included 332 individuals. Demographics, blood pressure, body mass index, and casual glycemia were evaluated. The brief version of the World Health Organization Quality of Life questionnaire on quality of life was given to them. The medians of the scores obtained for the physical, psychological, emotional, and environmental domains were used as cutoffs to define higher and lower scores. A multinomial logistic regression model was used to define the parameters associated with lower scores. RESULTS: Diabetes mellitus, dyslipidemia, and obesity were associated with lower scores in the physical domain. Dyslipidemia was also associeted with lower scores in the psychological domain. Male gender and regular physical activity had protective effects on quality of life. Aging was inversely associated with decreased quality of life in the environmental domain. CONCLUSION: The presence of cardiovascular risk factors is related to a decreased quality of life. Conversely, male gender and regular physical activity had protective effects on quality of life. These findings suggest that exercising should be further promoted by health-related public programs, with a special focus on women.

Reproductive performance of prepubertal Bos indicus heifers after progesterone-based treatments

The objective was to evaluate the effects of exogenous progesterone (P4) on reproductive performance of prepubertal Bos indicus heifers. Prepubertal Nelore heifers (n = 589; 24.0 +/- 1.13 mo; 298.0 +/- 1.89 kg; body condition score of 3.2 +/- 0.26; mean +/- SEM) were randomly assigned to receive, between experimental Days -12 and 0: no treatments (CIDR0; n = 113); a new intravaginal insert (CIDR) containing 1.9 g of P4 (CIDR1; n = 237); or a similar insert previously used three times, with each use occurring for 9 d (CIDR4; n = 239). An additional treatment group was pubertal heifers given 12.5 mg dinoprost tromethamine im on Day 0 (PGF; n = 346), and used as controls for evaluation of conception rates. on Day 0, transrectal palpation was done for uterine score evaluation (UtS; 1-3 scale), blood samples were taken for serum P4 concentrations, and follicle diameter (FD) was measured. The breeding season started on Day 1 and consisted of AI after detection of estrus between Days I and 45, and exposure to bulls between Days 46 and 90. There were effects of treatment (P < 0.05) on serum concentrations of P4 on Day 0 (0.37 +/- 0.16, 2.31 +/- 0.11, and 1.20 +/- 0.11 ng/mL for CIDR0, CIDR1, and CIDR4, respectively; mean SEM), FD on Day 0(9.45 +/- 0.24, 9.72 +/- 0.17, and 11.42 +/- 0.16 mm), UtS on Day 0 (1.49 +/- 0.06, 1.88 +/- 0.04, and 2.24 +/- 0.04), estrus detection rates at 7 d (19.5, 42.6, and 38.3%) and 45 d (52.2, 72.1, and 75.3%) of the breeding season, and on pregnancy rates at 7 d (5.3, 14.3, and 18.4%), 45 d (27.4, 39.2, and 47.7%) and 90 d (72.6, 83.5, and 83.7%) of the breeding season. Conception rate 7 d after the start of the breeding season was greater (P < 0.05) in heifers from the CIDR4 (46.8%) and PGF (43.8%) groups than in the CIDR0 (27.3%) and CIDR1 (33.7%) groups. In conclusion, exogenous P4 hastened puberty and improved pregnancy rates at the beginning of the breeding season in prepubertal Bos indicus heifers. Furthermore, previously used CIDR inserts were better than new inserts. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Toxic effects of methanolic and dichloromethane extracts of flowers and peduncles of Stryphnodendron adstringens (Leguminosae : Mimosoideae) on Apis mellifera and Scaptotrigona postica workers

Laboratory bioassays were conducted to evaluate toxicity of methanolic and dichloromethane extracts obtained from Stryphnodendron adstringens to Apis mellifera and Scaptotrigona postica workers. The extracts were incorporated into the diet of the bees for evaluation of mortality rates. The ingestion bioassays were made with three concentrations (0.002mg/g, 0.005mg/g and 0.01 mg/g) for each bee species. The workers were kept in cages, with twenty workers per cage for each concentration tested. All bioassays had sixty workers in three cages that where maintained in a biological oxygen demand incubator with controlled temperature and humidity. The data obtained in the toxicity bioassays were analyzed statistically by Log Rank test and all methanolic and clichloromethane extracts showed significant (P < 0.0001) toxic effects in all tested concentrations.