On feasibility of regional frequency-based emergency control plans

Decentralized and regional load-frequency control of power systems operating in normal and near-normal conditions has been well studied; and several analysis/synthesis approaches have been developed during the last few decades. However in contingency and off-normal conditions, the existing emergency control plans, such as under-frequency load shedding, are usually applied in a centralized structure using a different analysis model. This paper discusses the feasibility of using frequency-based emergency control schemes based on tie-line measurements and local information available within a control area. The conventional load-frequency control model is generalized by considering the dynamics of emergency control/protection schemes and an analytic approach to analyze the regional frequency response under normal and emergency conditions is presented.

Generation of a 3D proximal femur shape from a single projection 2D radiographic image.

Summary Generalized Procrustes analysis and thin plate splines were employed to create an average 3D shape template of the proximal femur that was warped to the size and shape of a single 2D radiographic image of a subject. Mean absolute depth errors are comparable with previous approaches utilising multiple 2D input projections. Introduction Several approaches have been adopted to derive volumetric density (g cm-3) from a conventional 2D representation of areal bone mineral density (BMD, g cm-2). Such approaches have generally aimed at deriving an average depth across the areal projection rather than creating a formal 3D shape of the bone. Methods Generalized Procrustes analysis and thin plate splines were employed to create an average 3D shape template of the proximal femur that was subsequently warped to suit the size and shape of a single 2D radiographic image of a subject. CT scans of excised human femora, 18 and 24 scanned at pixel resolutions of 1.08 mm and 0.674 mm, respectively, were equally split into training (created 3D shape template) and test cohorts. Results The mean absolute depth errors of 3.4 mm and 1.73 mm, respectively, for the two CT pixel sizes are comparable with previous approaches based upon multiple 2D input projections. Conclusions This technique has the potential to derive volumetric density from BMD and to facilitate 3D finite element analysis for prediction of the mechanical integrity of the proximal femur. It may further be applied to other anatomical bone sites such as the distal radius and lumbar spine.

Bayesian model averaging for harmful algal bloom prediction

Harmful Algal Blooms (HABs) are a worldwide problem that have been increasing in frequency and extent over the past several decades. HABs severely damage aquatic ecosystems by destroying benthic habitat, reducing invertebrate and fish populations and affecting larger species such as dugong that rely on seagrasses for food. Few statistical models for predicting HAB occurrences have been developed, and in common with most predictive models in ecology, those that have been developed do not fully account for uncertainties in parameters and model structure. This makes management decisions based on these predictions more risky than might be supposed. We used a probit time series model and Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA) to predict occurrences of blooms of Lyngbya majuscula, a toxic cyanophyte, in Deception Bay, Queensland, Australia. We found a suite of useful predictors for HAB occurrence, with Temperature figuring prominently in models with the majority of posterior support, and a model consisting of the single covariate average monthly minimum temperature showed by far the greatest posterior support. A comparison of alternative model averaging strategies was made with one strategy using the full posterior distribution and a simpler approach that utilised the majority of the posterior distribution for predictions but with vastly fewer models. Both BMA approaches showed excellent predictive performance with little difference in their predictive capacity. Applications of BMA are still rare in ecology, particularly in management settings. This study demonstrates the power of BMA as an important management tool that is capable of high predictive performance while fully accounting for both parameter and model uncertainty.

Adaptive load shedding and regional protection

The requirement for improved efficiency whilst maintaining system security necessitates the development of improved system analysis approaches and the development of advanced emergency control technologies. Load shedding is a type of emergency control that is designed to ensure system stability by curtailing system load to match generation supply. This paper presents a new adaptive load shedding scheme that provides emergency protection against excess frequency decline, whilst minimizing the risk of line overloading. The proposed load shedding scheme uses the local frequency rate information to adapt the load shedding behaviour to suit the size and location of the experienced disturbance. The proposed scheme is tested in simulation on a 3-region, 10-generator sample system and shows good performance.

Difference-based meta-analytic procedures for between-participant and/or within-participant designs : a tutorial review for sports and exercise scientists

The aim of this paper is to provide a contemporary summary of statistical and non-statistical meta-analytic procedures that have relevance to the type of experimental designs often used by sport scientists when examining differences/change in dependent measure(s) as a result of one or more independent manipulation(s). Using worked examples from studies on observational learning in the motor behaviour literature, we adopt a random effects model and give a detailed explanation of the statistical procedures for the three types of raw score difference-based analyses applicable to between-participant, within-participant, and mixed-participant designs. Major merits and concerns associated with these quantitative procedures are identified and agreed methods are reported for minimizing biased outcomes, such as those for dealing with multiple dependent measures from single studies, design variation across studies, different metrics (i.e. raw scores and difference scores), and variations in sample size. To complement the worked examples, we summarize the general considerations required when conducting and reporting a meta-analysis, including how to deal with publication bias, what information to present regarding the primary studies, and approaches for dealing with outliers. By bringing together these statistical and non-statistical meta-analytic procedures, we provide the tools required to clarify understanding of key concepts and principles.

Mutation frequency of non-ESBL phenotype SENTRY (Asia-Pacific) isolates of Klebsiella pneumoniae conversion to an ESBL positive phenotype

Extended spectrum β-lactamases or ESBLs, which are derived from non-ESBL precursors by point mutation of β-lactamase genes (bla), are spreading rapidly all over the world and have caused considerable problems in the treatment of infections caused by bacteria which harbour them. The mechanism of this resistance is not fully understood and a better understanding of these mechanisms might significantly impact on choosing proper diagnostic and treatment strategies. Previous work on SHV β-lactamase gene, blaSHV, has shown that only Klebsiella pneumoniae strains which contain plasmid-borne blaSHV are able to mutate to phenotypically ESBL-positive strains and there was also evidence of an increase in blaSHV copy number. Therefore, it was hypothesised that although specific point mutation is essential for acquisition of ESBL activity, it is not yet enough, and blaSHV copy number amplification is also essential for an ESBL-positive phenotype, with homologous recombination being the likely mechanism of blaSHV copy number expansion. In this study, we investigated the mutation rate of non-ESBL expressing K. pneumoniae isolates to an ESBL-positive status by using the MSS-maximum likelihood method. Our data showed that blaSHV mutation rate of a non-ESBL expressing isolate is lower than the mutation rate of the other single base changes on the chromosome, even with a plasmid-borne blaSHV gene. On the other hand, mutation rate from a low MIC ESBL-positive (≤ 8 µg/mL for cefotaxime) to high MIC ESBL-positive (≥16 µg/mL for cefotaxime) is very high. This is because only gene copy number increase is needed which is probably mediated by homologous recombination that typically takes place at a much higher frequencies than point mutations. Using a subinhibitory concentration of novobiocin, as a homologous recombination inhibitor, revealed that this is the case.

Pathologising difference, governing personality

Recent research has stressed the integral part played by teachers in both preliminary diagnosis and ongoing treatment of a range of conduct and personality disorders. Teachers are not only required to be aware of a variety of new categories of difference (Attention Deficit Disorder, Selective Mutism, Borderline Personality Disorder, Antisocial Personality Disorder, to name but a few), but are also now lauded for extending the role of education into new areas of social management. This paper will take issue with this understanding on two counts: first, teachers have always sought to mould the personalities of students, and the pathologisation of specific forms of conduct is simply a new tactic within a very old and familiar strategy. Second, schools do not simply discover disorders such as ADD as objective facts of nature. Rather, they are part of the process through which such differences are created, and by which individuals can be more effectively governed.

One small difference after another : stories of grassroots leaders

Grassroots groups – autonomous, not-for-profit groups made up of volunteers – and grassroots initiatives play an invaluable, yet often invisible, role in our communities. The informal processes and collective efforts of grassroots associations, social movements, self-help groups and local action collectives are central to civil society and community building. Grassroots leaders are critical to such initiatives, yet little is known about their influences, motivations, successes and challenges. This study aims to address this dearth in the research literature by noting the experiences of a sample of grassroots community leaders to help gain a greater knowledge about community leadership in action. In-depth semi-structured interviews were held with nine grassroots leaders from a broad cross-section of sectors of interest. The criteria for selection were that these leaders were not in a formal non-profit organisation, were not paid for their work yet were leading grassroots groups or initiatives involved in active community building, campaigning or self-help. The paper reflects on findings in regard to the formative experiences that impacted upon the community leaders’ direction in life, their beliefs and ideas about what it means to be a leader, the strategies they use to lead and challenges they continue to face, and the role of learning and support in maintaining and developing their roles. Finally, the key themes relating to grassroots leadership and how these leaders enhance their own effectiveness and resilience are explored.

Celebrating difference/censoring difference? : Marie Chouinard’s bODY rEMIX

This paper examines performances that defy established representations of disease, deformity and bodily difference. Historically, the ‘deformed’ body has been cast – onstage and in sideshows – as flawed, an object of pity, or an example of the human capacity to overcome. Such representations define the boundaries of the ‘normal’ body by displaying its Other. They bracket the ‘abnormal’ body off as an example of deviance from the ‘norm’, thus, paradoxically, decreasing the social and symbolic visibility (and agency) of disabled people. Yet, in contemporary theory and culture, these representations are reappropriated – by disabled artists, certainly, but also as what Carrie Sandahl has called a ‘master trope’ for representing a range of bodily differences. In this paper, I investigate this phenomenon. I analyse French Canadian choreographer Marie Chouinard’s bODY rEMIX/gOLDBERG vARIATIONS, in which 10 able-bodied dancers are reborn as bizarre biotechnical mutants via the use of crutches, walkers, ballet shoes and barres as prosthetic pseudo-organs. These bodies defy boundaries, defy expectations, develop new modes of expression, and celebrate bodily difference. The self-inflicted pain dancers experience during training is cast as a ‘disablement’ that is ultimately ‘enabling’. I ask what effect encountering able bodies celebrating ‘dis’ or ‘diff’ ability has on audiences. Do we see the emergence of a once-repressed Other, no longer silenced, censored or negated? Or does using ‘disability’ to express the dancers’ difference and self-determination usurp a ‘trope’ by which disabled people themselves might speak back to the dominant culture, creating further censorship?

Scatter difference NAP for SVM speaker recognition

This paper presents Scatter Difference Nuisance Attribute Projection (SD-NAP) as an enhancement to NAP for SVM-based speaker verification. While standard NAP may inadvertently remove desirable speaker variability, SD-NAP explicitly de-emphasises this variability by incorporating a weighted version of the between-class scatter into the NAP optimisation criterion. Experimental evaluation of SD-NAP with a variety of SVM systems on the 2006 and 2008 NIST SRE corpora demonstrate that SD-NAP provides improved verification performance over standard NAP in most cases, particularly at the EER operating point.

Continued use of process modeling grammars : the impact of individual difference factors

Process modeling grammars are used by analysts to describe information systems domains in terms of the business operations an organization is conducting. While prior research has examined the factors that lead to continued usage behavior, little knowledge has been established as to what extent characteristics of the users of process modeling grammars inform usage behavior. In this study, a theoretical model is advanced that incorporates determinants of continued usage behavior as well as key antecedent individual difference factors of the grammar users, such as modeling experience, modeling background and perceived grammar familiarity. Findings from a global survey of 529 grammar users support the hypothesized relationships of the model. The study offers three central contributions. First, it provides a validated theoretical model of post-adoptive modeling grammar usage intentions. Second, it discusses the effects of individual difference factors of grammar users in the context of modeling grammar usage. Third, it provides implications for research and practice.

Drivers of adoption for successive generation of high-tech products

To understand the diffusion of high technology products such as PCs, digital cameras and DVD players it is necessary to consider the dynamics of successive generations of technology. From the consumer’s perspective, these technology changes may manifest themselves as either a new generation product substituting for the old (for instance digital cameras) or as multiple generations of a single product (for example PCs). To date, research has been confined to aggregate level sales models. These models consider the demand relationship between one generation of a product and a successor generation. However, they do not give insights into the disaggregate-level decisions by individual households – whether to adopt the newer generation, and if so, when. This paper makes two contributions. It is the first large scale empirical study to collect household data for successive generations of technologies in an effort to understand the drivers of adoption. Second, in contrast to traditional analysis in diffusion research that conceptualizes technology substitution as an “adoption of innovation” type process, we propose that from a consumer’s perspective, technology substitution combines elements of both adoption (adopting the new generation technology) and replacement (replacing generation I product with generation II). Key Propositions In some cases, successive generations are clear “substitutes” for the earlier generation (e.g. PCs Pentium I to II to III ). More commonly the new generation II technology is a “partial substitute” for existing generation I technology (e.g. DVD players and VCRs). Some consumers will purchase generation II products as substitutes for their generation I product, while other consumers will purchase generation II products as additional products to be used as well as their generation I product. We propose that substitute generation II purchases combine elements of both adoption and replacement, but additional generation II purchases are solely adoption-driven process. Moreover, drawing on adoption theory consumer innovativeness is the most important consumer characteristic for adoption timing of new products. Hence, we hypothesize consumer innovativeness to influence the timing of both additional and substitute generation II purchases but to have a stronger impact on additional generation II purchases. We further propose that substitute generation II purchases act partially as a replacement purchase for the generation I product. Thus, we hypothesize that households with older generation I products will make substitute generation II purchases earlier. Methods We employ Cox hazard modeling to study factors influencing the timing of a household’s adoption of generation II products. A separate hazard model is conducted for additional and substitute purchases. The age of the generation I product is calculated based on the most recent household purchase of that product. Control variables include size and income of household, age and education of decision-maker. Results and Implications Our preliminary results confirm both our hypotheses. Consumer innovativeness has a strong influence on both additional purchases and substitute purchases. Also consistent with our hypotheses, the age of the generation I product has a dramatic influence for substitute purchases of VCR/DVD players and a strong influence for PCs/notebooks. Yet, also as hypothesized, there was no influence on additional purchases. This implies that there is a clear distinction between additional and substitute purchases of generation II products, each with different drivers. For substitute purchases, product age is a key driver. Therefore marketers of high technology products can utilize data on generation I product age (e.g. from warranty or loyalty programs) to target customers who are more likely to make a purchase.

Stability and convergence of a new explicit finite-difference approximation for the variable-order nonlinear fractional diffusion equation

In this paper, we consider the variable-order nonlinear fractional diffusion equation View the MathML source where xRα(x,t) is a generalized Riesz fractional derivative of variable order View the MathML source and the nonlinear reaction term f(u,x,t) satisfies the Lipschitz condition |f(u1,x,t)-f(u2,x,t)|less-than-or-equals, slantL|u1-u2|. A new explicit finite-difference approximation is introduced. The convergence and stability of this approximation are proved. Finally, some numerical examples are provided to show that this method is computationally efficient. The proposed method and techniques are applicable to other variable-order nonlinear fractional differential equations.