Bargaining for power and information : an experimental and theoretical analysis of the interaction between institutions, externalities and adverse selection

Bargaining is the building block of many economic interactions, ranging from bilateral to multilateral encounters and from situations in which the actors are individuals to negotiations between firms or countries. In all these settings, economists have been intrigued for a long time by the fact that some projects, trades or agreements are not realized even though they are mutually beneficial. On the one hand, this has been explained by incomplete information. A firm may not be willing to offer a wage that is acceptable to a qualified worker, because it knows that there are also unqualified workers and cannot distinguish between the two types. This phenomenon is known as adverse selection. On the other hand, it has been argued that even with complete information, the presence of externalities may impede efficient outcomes. To see this, consider the example of climate change. If a subset of countries agrees to curb emissions, non-participant regions benefit from the signatories’ efforts without incurring costs. These free riding opportunities give rise to incentives to strategically improve ones bargaining power that work against the formation of a global agreement. This thesis is concerned with extending our understanding of both factors, adverse selection and externalities. The findings are based on empirical evidence from original laboratory experiments as well as game theoretic modeling. On a very general note, it is demonstrated that the institutions through which agents interact matter to a large extent. Insights are provided about which institutions we should expect to perform better than others, at least in terms of aggregate welfare. Chapters 1 and 2 focus on the problem of adverse selection. Effective operation of markets and other institutions often depends on good information transmission properties. In terms of the example introduced above, a firm is only willing to offer high wages if it receives enough positive signals about the worker’s quality during the application and wage bargaining process. In Chapter 1, it will be shown that repeated interaction coupled with time costs facilitates information transmission. By making the wage bargaining process costly for the worker, the firm is able to obtain more accurate information about the worker’s type. The cost could be pure time cost from delaying agreement or cost of effort arising from a multi-step interviewing process. In Chapter 2, I abstract from time cost and show that communication can play a similar role. The simple fact that a worker states to be of high quality may be informative. In Chapter 3, the focus is on a different source of inefficiency. Agents strive for bargaining power and thus may be motivated by incentives that are at odds with the socially efficient outcome. I have already mentioned the example of climate change. Other examples are coalitions within committees that are formed to secure voting power to block outcomes or groups that commit to different technological standards although a single standard would be optimal (e.g. the format war between HD and BlueRay). It will be shown that such inefficiencies are directly linked to the presence of externalities and a certain degree of irreversibility in actions. I now discuss the three articles in more detail. In Chapter 1, Olivier Bochet and I study a simple bilateral bargaining institution that eliminates trade failures arising from incomplete information. In this setting, a buyer makes offers to a seller in order to acquire a good. Whenever an offer is rejected by the seller, the buyer may submit a further offer. Bargaining is costly, because both parties suffer a (small) time cost after any rejection. The difficulties arise, because the good can be of low or high quality and the quality of the good is only known to the seller. Indeed, without the possibility to make repeated offers, it is too risky for the buyer to offer prices that allow for trade of high quality goods. When allowing for repeated offers, however, at equilibrium both types of goods trade with probability one. We provide an experimental test of these predictions. Buyers gather information about sellers using specific price offers and rates of trade are high, much as the model’s qualitative predictions. We also observe a persistent over-delay before trade occurs, and this mitigates efficiency substantially. Possible channels for over-delay are identified in the form of two behavioral assumptions missing from the standard model, loss aversion (buyers) and haggling (sellers), which reconcile the data with the theoretical predictions. Chapter 2 also studies adverse selection, but interaction between buyers and sellers now takes place within a market rather than isolated pairs. Remarkably, in a market it suffices to let agents communicate in a very simple manner to mitigate trade failures. The key insight is that better informed agents (sellers) are willing to truthfully reveal their private information, because by doing so they are able to reduce search frictions and attract more buyers. Behavior observed in the experimental sessions closely follows the theoretical predictions. As a consequence, costless and non-binding communication (cheap talk) significantly raises rates of trade and welfare. Previous experiments have documented that cheap talk alleviates inefficiencies due to asymmetric information. These findings are explained by pro-social preferences and lie aversion. I use appropriate control treatments to show that such consideration play only a minor role in our market. Instead, the experiment highlights the ability to organize markets as a new channel through which communication can facilitate trade in the presence of private information. In Chapter 3, I theoretically explore coalition formation via multilateral bargaining under complete information. The environment studied is extremely rich in the sense that the model allows for all kinds of externalities. This is achieved by using so-called partition functions, which pin down a coalitional worth for each possible coalition in each possible coalition structure. It is found that although binding agreements can be written, efficiency is not guaranteed, because the negotiation process is inherently non-cooperative. The prospects of cooperation are shown to crucially depend on i) the degree to which players can renegotiate and gradually build up agreements and ii) the absence of a certain type of externalities that can loosely be described as incentives to free ride. Moreover, the willingness to concede bargaining power is identified as a novel reason for gradualism. Another key contribution of the study is that it identifies a strong connection between the Core, one of the most important concepts in cooperative game theory, and the set of environments for which efficiency is attained even without renegotiation.

Past and future evolution of Abies alba forests in Europe - comparison of a dynamic vegetation model with palaeo data and observations

Information on how species distributions and ecosystem services are impacted by anthropogenic climate change is important for adaptation planning. Palaeo data suggest that Abies alba formed forests under significantly warmer-than-present conditions in Europe and might be a native substitute for widespread drought-sensitive temperate and boreal tree species such as beech (Fagus sylvatica) and spruce (Picea abies) under future global warming conditions. Here, we combine pollen and macrofossil data, modern observations, and results from transient simulations with the LPX-Bern dynamic global vegetation model to assess past and future distributions of A. alba in Europe. LPX-Bern is forced with climate anomalies from a run over the past 21 000 years with the Community Earth System Model, modern climatology, and with 21st-century multimodel ensemble results for the high-emission RCP8.5 and the stringent mitigation RCP2.6 pathway. The simulated distribution for present climate encompasses the modern range of A. alba, with the model exceeding the present distribution in north-western and southern Europe. Mid-Holocene pollen data and model results agree for southern Europe, suggesting that at present, human impacts suppress the distribution in southern Europe. Pollen and model results both show range expansion starting during the Bølling–Allerød warm period, interrupted by the Younger Dryas cold, and resuming during the Holocene. The distribution of A. alba expands to the north-east in all future scenarios, whereas the potential (currently unrealized) range would be substantially reduced in southern Europe under RCP8.5. A. alba maintains its current range in central Europe despite competition by other thermophilous tree species. Our combined palaeoecological and model evidence suggest that A. alba may ensure important ecosystem services including stand and slope stability, infrastructure protection, and carbon sequestration under significantly warmer-than-present conditions in central Europe.

Annual Report Information Technology 2007-2008

Information Technology Annual Report Fiscal Year 2007-2008. Sandra Armstrong, Chief Information Officer, University of Connecticut Health Center.

HPV knowledge, HPV vaccine awareness and initiation among Hispanics: The role of language, information seeking, and information scanning

Background. Among Hispanics, the HPV vaccine has the potential to eliminate disparities in cervical cancer incidence and mortality but only if optimal rates of vaccination are achieved. Media can be an important information source for increasing HPV knowledge and awareness of the vaccine. Very little is known about how media use among Hispanics affects their HPV knowledge and vaccine awareness. Even less is known about what differences exist in media use and information processing among English- and Spanish-speaking Hispanics.^ Aims. Examine the relationships between three health communication variables (media exposure, HPV-specific information scanning and seeking) and three HPV outcomes (knowledge, vaccine awareness and initiation) among English- and Spanish-speaking Hispanics.^ Methods. Cross-sectional data from a survey administered to Hispanic mothers in Dallas, Texas was used for univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses. Sample used for analysis included 288 mothers of females aged 8-22 recruited from clinics and community events. Dependent variables of interest were HPV knowledge, HPV vaccine awareness and initiation. Independent variables were media exposure, HPV-specific information scanning and seeking. Language was tested as an effect modifier on the relationship between health communication variables and HPV outcomes.^ Results. English-speaking mothers reported more media exposure, HPV-specific information scanning and seeking than Spanish-speakers. Scanning for HPV information was associated with more HPV knowledge (OR = 4.26, 95% CI = 2.41 - 7.51), vaccine awareness (OR = 10.01, 95% CI = 5.43 - 18.47) and vaccine initiation (OR = 2.54, 95% CI = 1.09 - 5.91). Seeking HPV-specific information was associated with more knowledge (OR = 2.27, 95% CI = 1.23 - 4.16), awareness (OR = 6.60, 95% CI = 2.74 - 15.91) and initiation (OR = 4.93, 95% CI = 2.64 - 9.20). Language moderated the effect of information scanning and seeking on vaccine awareness.^ Discussion. Differences in information scanning and seeking behaviors among Hispanic subgroups have the potential to lead to disparities in vaccine awareness.^ Conclusion. Findings from this study underscore health communication differences among Hispanics and emphasize the need to target Spanish language media as well as English language media aimed at Hispanics to improve knowledge and awareness.^

Early - Late Miocene palaeoclimate data and palaefloras of 48 samples from Southern China

Southern China, especially Yunnan, has undergone high tectonic activity caused by the uplift of Himalayan Mountains during the Neogene, which led to a fast changing palaeogeography. Previous study shows that Southern China has been influenced by the Asian Monsoon since at least the Early Miocene. However, it is yet not well understood how intense the Miocene monsoon system was. In the present study, 63 fossil floras of 16 localities from Southern China are compiled and evaluated for obtaining available information concerning floristic composition, stratigraphic age, sedimentology, etc. Based on such reliable information, selected mega- and micro-floras have been analysed with the coexistence approach to obtain quantitative palaeoclimate data. Visualization of climate results in maps shows a distinct spatial differentiation in Southern China during the Miocene. Higher seasonalities of temperature and precipitation occur in the north and south parts of Southern China, respectively. During the Miocene, most regions of Southern China and Europe were both warm and humid. Central Eurasia was likely to be an arid center, which gradually spread westward and eastward. Our data provide information about Miocene climate patterns in Southern China and about the evolution of these patterns throughout the Miocene, and is also crucial to unravel and understand the climatic signals of global cooling and tectonic uplift.

Single beam survey data and links to sea-bottom video files off Helgoland

Kelp forests represent a major habitat type in coastal waters worldwide and their structure and distribution is predicted to change due to global warming. Despite their ecological and economical importance, there is still a lack of reliable spatial information on their abundance and distribution. In recent years, various hydroacoustic mapping techniques for sublittoral environments evolved. However, in turbid coastal waters, such as off the island of Helgoland (Germany, North Sea), the kelp vegetation is present in shallow water depths normally excluded from hydroacoustic surveys. In this study, single beam survey data consisting of the two seafloor parameters roughness and hardness were obtained with RoxAnn from water depth between 2 and 18 m. Our primary aim was to reliably detect the kelp forest habitat with different densities and distinguish it from other vegetated zones. Five habitat classes were identified using underwater-video and were applied for classification of acoustic signatures. Subsequently, spatial prediction maps were produced via two classification approaches: Linear discriminant analysis (LDA) and manual classification routine (MC). LDA was able to distinguish dense kelp forest from other habitats (i.e. mixed seaweed vegetation, sand, and barren bedrock), but no variances in kelp density. In contrast, MC also provided information on medium dense kelp distribution which is characterized by intermediate roughness and hardness values evoked by reduced kelp abundances. The prediction maps reach accordance levels of 62% (LDA) and 68% (MC). The presence of vegetation (kelp and mixed seaweed vegetation) was determined with higher prediction abilities of 75% (LDA) and 76% (MC). Since the different habitat classes reveal acoustic signatures that strongly overlap, the manual classification method was more appropriate for separating different kelp forest densities and low-lying vegetation. It became evident that the occurrence of kelp in this area is not simply linked to water depth. Moreover, this study shows that the two seafloor parameters collected with RoxAnn are suitable indicators for the discrimination of different densely vegetated seafloor habitats in shallow environments.

Motivating Young Students to Start a Career in Nuclear: The Basic Course of Science and Nuclear Technology, An Educational Activity of Spanish Young Generation in Nuclear (JÓVENES NUCLEARES)

The main objective of this course, conducted by Jóvenes Nucleares (Spanish Young Generation in Nuclear, JJNN), a non-profit organization that depends on the Spanish Nuclear Society (SNE) is to pass on basic knowledge about Science and Nuclear Technology to the general public, mostly students and introduce them to its most relevant points. The purposes of this course are to provide general information, to answer the most common questions about Nuclear Energy and to motivate the young students to start a career in nuclear. Therefore, it is directed mainly to high school and university students, but also to general people that wants to learn about the key issues of such an important matter in our society. Anybody could attend the course, as no specific scientific education is required. The course is done at least once a year, during the Annual Meeting of the Spanish Nuclear Society, which takes place in a different Spanish city each time. The course is done also to whichever university or institution that asks for it to JJNN, with the only limit of the presenter´s availability. The course is divided into the following chapters: Physical nuclear and radiation principles, Nuclear power plants, Nuclear safety, Nuclear fuel, Radioactive waste, Decommission of nuclear facilities, Future nuclear power plants, Other uses of nuclear technology, Nuclear energy, climate change and sustainable development. The course is divided into 15 minutes lessons on the above topics, imparted by young professionals, experts in the field that belongs either to the Spanish Young Generation in Nuclear, either to companies and institutions related with nuclear energy. At the end of the course, a 200 pages book with the contents of the course is handed to every member of the audience. This book is also distributed in other course editions at high schools and universities in order to promote the scientific dissemination of the Nuclear Technology. As an extra motivation, JJNN delivers a course certificate to the assistants. At the end of the last edition course, in Santiago de Compostela, the assistants were asked to provide a feedback about it. Some really interesting lessons were learned, that will be very useful to improve next editions of the course. As a general conclusion of the courses it can be said that many of the students that have assisted to the course have increased their motivation in the nuclear field, and hopefully it will help the young talents to choose the nuclear field to develop their careers

Transmission of digital chaotic and information-bearing signals in optical communication systems

A new proposal to have secure communications in a system is reported. The basis is the use of a synchronized digital chaotic systems, sending the information signal added to an initial chaos. The received signal is analyzed by another chaos generator located at the receiver and, by a logic boolean function of the chaotic and the received signals, the original information is recovered. One of the most important facts of this system is that the bandwidth needed by the system remain the same with and without chaos.

Evaluating alternative industrial network organizations and information systems

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to present a simulation‐based evaluation method for the comparison of different organizational forms and software support levels in the field of supply chain management (SCM). Design/methodology/approach – Apart from widely known logistic performance indicators, the discrete event simulation model considers explicitly coordination cost as stemming from iterative administration procedures. Findings - The method is applied to an exemplary supply chain configuration considering various parameter settings. Curiously, additional coordination cost does not always result in improved logistic performance. Influence factor variations lead to different organizational recommendations. The results confirm the high importance of (up to now) disregarded dimensions when evaluating SCM concepts and IT tools. Research limitations/implications – The model is based on simplified product and network structures. Future research shall include more complex, real world configurations. Practical implications – The developed method is designed for the identification of improvement potential when SCM software is employed. Coordination schemes based only on ERP systems are valid alternatives in industrial practice because significant investment IT can be avoided. Therefore, the evaluation of these coordination procedures, in particular the cost due to iterations, is of high managerial interest and the method provides a comprehensive tool for strategic IT decision making. Originality/value – Reviewed literature is mostly focused on the benefits of SCM software implementations. However, ERP system based supply chain coordination is still widespread industrial practice but associated coordination cost has not been addressed by researchers.

A semantic middleware architecture focused on data and heterogeneity management within the Smart Grid

There is an increasing tendency of turning the current power grid, essentially unaware of variations in electricity demand and scattered energy sources, into something capable of bringing a degree of intelligence by using tools strongly related to information and communication technologies, thus turning into the so-called Smart Grid. In fact, it could be considered that the Smart Grid is an extensive smart system that spreads throughout any area where power is required, providing a significant optimization in energy generation, storage and consumption. However, the information that must be treated to accomplish these tasks is challenging both in terms of complexity (semantic features, distributed systems, suitable hardware) and quantity (consumption data, generation data, forecasting functionalities, service reporting), since the different energy beneficiaries are prone to be heterogeneous, as the nature of their own activities is. This paper presents a proposal on how to deal with these issues by using a semantic middleware architecture that integrates different components focused on specific tasks, and how it is used to handle information at every level and satisfy end user requests.

Optimizing the creation of base populations for aquaculture breeding programs using phenotypic and genomic data and its consequences on genetic progress

The success of an aquaculture breeding program critically depends on the way in which the base population of breeders is constructed since all the genetic variability for the traits included originally in the breeding goal as well as those to be included in the future is contained in the initial founders. Traditionally, base populations were created from a number of wild strains by sampling equal numbers from each strain. However, for some aquaculture species improved strains are already available and, therefore, mean phenotypic values for economically important traits can be used as a criterion to optimize the sampling when creating base populations. Also, the increasing availability of genome-wide genotype information in aquaculture species could help to refine the estimation of relationships within and between candidate strains and, thus, to optimize the percentage of individuals to be sampled from each strain. This study explores the advantages of using phenotypic and genome-wide information when constructing base populations for aquaculture breeding programs in terms of initial and subsequent trait performance and genetic diversity level. Results show that a compromise solution between diversity and performance can be found when creating base populations. Up to 6% higher levels of phenotypic performance can be achieved at the same level of global diversity in the base population by optimizing the selection of breeders instead of sampling equal numbers from each strain. The higher performance observed in the base population persisted during 10 generations of phenotypic selection applied in the subsequent breeding program.

Radical SAM, a novel protein superfamily linking unresolved steps in familiar biosynthetic pathways with radical mechanisms: functional characterization using new analysis and information visualization methods

A novel protein superfamily with over 600 members was discovered by iterative profile searches and analyzed with powerful bioinformatics and information visualization methods. Evidence exists that these proteins generate a radical species by reductive cleavage of S-adenosylmethionine (SAM) through an unusual Fe-S center. The superfamily (named here Radical SAM) provides evidence that radical-based catalysis is important in a number of previously well- studied but unresolved biochemical pathways and reflects an ancient conserved mechanistic approach to difficult chemistries. Radical SAM proteins catalyze diverse reactions, including unusual methylations, isomerization, sulfur insertion, ring formation, anaerobic oxidation and protein radical formation. They function in DNA precursor, vitamin, cofactor, antibiotic and herbicide biosynthesis and in biodegradation pathways. One eukaryotic member is interferon-inducible and is considered a candidate drug target for osteoporosis; another is observed to bind the neuronal Cdk5 activator protein. Five defining members not previously recognized as homologs are lysine 2,3-aminomutase, biotin synthase, lipoic acid synthase and the activating enzymes for pyruvate formate-lyase and anaerobic ribonucleotide reductase. Two functional predictions for unknown proteins are made based on integrating other data types such as motif, domain, operon and biochemical pathway into an organized view of similarity relationships.

Educating a new generation of library and information science professionals: A United States perspective

This article examines the U.S model of library and information science (LIS) education in light of the changes brought about by information and communication technology. The accepted model of professional preparation in the United States has emphasized graduate education on a Master’s level from LIS programs accredited by the American Library Association (ALA). The authors trace the historical development of this approach and provide an overview of the ALA accreditation process. Furthermore, they examine the strategies of LIS programs in adjusting to the changing information environment, present the debate about the iSchool movement, and discuss the evolution of the core curriculum. In addition, the article explores the relationship between LIS education and the field of practice and presents a practitioner’s perspective on educating library professionals. The authors conclude that the model of advanced professional preparation for librarianship is still relevant in the digital environment, but it requires greater flexibility and close cooperation with the field of practice.