Real time information provision benefit measured by macroscopic fundamental diagram

The existence of Macroscopic Fundamental Diagram (MFD), which relates space-mean density and flow, has been shown in urban networks under homogeneous traffic conditions. Since MFD represents the area-wide network traffic performances, studies on perimeter control strategies and an area traffic state estimation utilizing the MFD concept has been reported. One of the key requirements for well-defined MFD is the homogeneity of the area-wide traffic condition with links of similar properties, which is not universally expected in real world. For the practical application of the MFD concept, several researchers have identified the influencing factors for network homogeneity. However, they did not explicitly take the impact of drivers’ behaviour and information provision into account, which has a significant impact on simulation outputs. This research aims to demonstrate the effect of dynamic information provision on network performance by employing the MFD as a measurement. A microscopic simulation, AIMSUN, is chosen as an experiment platform. By changing the ratio of en-route informed drivers and pre-trip informed drivers different scenarios are simulated in order to investigate how drivers’ adaptation to the traffic congestion influences the network performance with respect to the MFD shape as well as other indicators, such as total travel time. This study confirmed the impact of information provision on the MFD shape, and addressed the usefulness of the MFD for measuring the dynamic information provision benefit.

Modeling the cumulative genetic risk for multiple sclerosis from genome-wide association data

Background: Multiple sclerosis (MS) is the most common cause of chronic neurologic disability beginning in early to middle adult life. Results from recent genome-wide association studies (GWAS) have substantially lengthened the list of disease loci and provide convincing evidence supporting a multifactorial and polygenic model of inheritance. Nevertheless, the knowledge of MS genetics remains incomplete, with many risk alleles still to be revealed. Methods: We used a discovery GWAS dataset (8,844 samples, 2,124 cases and 6,720 controls) and a multi-step logistic regression protocol to identify novel genetic associations. The emerging genetic profile included 350 independent markers and was used to calculate and estimate the cumulative genetic risk in an independent validation dataset (3,606 samples). Analysis of covariance (ANCOVA) was implemented to compare clinical characteristics of individuals with various degrees of genetic risk. Gene ontology and pathway enrichment analysis was done using the DAVID functional annotation tool, the GO Tree Machine, and the Pathway-Express profiling tool. Results: In the discovery dataset, the median cumulative genetic risk (P-Hat) was 0.903 and 0.007 in the case and control groups, respectively, together with 79.9% classification sensitivity and 95.8% specificity. The identified profile shows a significant enrichment of genes involved in the immune response, cell adhesion, cell communication/ signaling, nervous system development, and neuronal signaling, including ionotropic glutamate receptors, which have been implicated in the pathological mechanism driving neurodegeneration. In the validation dataset, the median cumulative genetic risk was 0.59 and 0.32 in the case and control groups, respectively, with classification sensitivity 62.3% and specificity 75.9%. No differences in disease progression or T2-lesion volumes were observed among four levels of predicted genetic risk groups (high, medium, low, misclassified). On the other hand, a significant difference (F = 2.75, P = 0.04) was detected for age of disease onset between the affected misclassified as controls (mean = 36 years) and the other three groups (high, 33.5 years; medium, 33.4 years; low, 33.1 years). Conclusions: The results are consistent with the polygenic model of inheritance. The cumulative genetic risk established using currently available genome-wide association data provides important insights into disease heterogeneity and completeness of current knowledge in MS genetics.

Optical data encryption using time-dependent dynamics of refractive index changes in LiNbO3

We present a method for optical encryption of information, based on the time-dependent dynamics of writing and erasure of refractive index changes in a bulk lithium niobate medium. Information is written into the photorefractive crystal with a spatially amplitude modulated laser beam which when overexposed significantly degrades the stored data making it unrecognizable. We show that the degradation can be reversed and that a one-to-one relationship exists between the degradation and recovery rates. It is shown that this simple relationship can be used to determine the erasure time required for decrypting the scrambled index patterns. In addition, this method could be used as a straightforward general technique for determining characteristic writing and erasure rates in photorefractive media.

Improved ultra-performance liquid chromatography with electrospray ionization quadrupole-time-of-flight high-definition mass spectrometry method for the rapid analysis of the chemical constituents of a typical medical formula: Liuwei Dihuang Wan

Liuwei Dihuang Wan (LWD), a classic Chinese medicinal formulae, has been used to improve or restore declined functions related to aging and geriatric diseases, such as impaired mobility, vision, hearing, cognition and memory. It has attracted increasingly much attention as one of the most popular and valuable herbal medicines. However, the systematic analysis of the chemical constituents of LDW is difficult and thus has not been well established. In this paper, a rapid, sensitive and reliable ultra-performance liquid chromatography with electrospray ionization quadrupole time-of-flight high-definition mass spectrometry (UPLC-ESI-Q-TOF-MS) method with automated MetaboLynx analysis in positive and negative ion mode was established to characterize the chemical constituents of LDW. The analysis was performed on a Waters UPLCTM HSS T3 using a gradient elution system. MS/MS fragmentation behavior was proposed for aiding the structural identification of the components. Under the optimized conditions, a total of 50 peaks were tentatively characterized by comparing the retention time and MS data. It is concluded that a rapid and robust platform based on UPLC-ESI-Q-TOF-MS has been successfully developed for globally identifying multiple-constituents of traditional Chinese medicine prescriptions. This is the first report on systematic analysis of the chemical constituents of LDW. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

An examination of MS candidate genes identified as differentially regulated in multiple sclerosis plaque tissue, using absolute and comparative real-time Q-PCR analysis

In our laboratory, we have developed methods in real-time detection and quantitative-polymerase chain reaction (Q-PCR) to analyse the relative levels of gene expression in post mortem brain tissues. We have then applied this method to examine differences in gene activity between normal white matter (NWM) and plaque tissue from multiple sclerosis (MS) patients. Genes were selected based on their association with pathology and through identification by previously conducted global gene expression analysis. Plaque tissue was obtained from secondary progressive (SP) patients displaying chronic active, as well as acute pathologies; while NWM from the same location was obtained from age- and sex-matched controls (normal patients). In this study, we used both SYBR Green I supplementation and commercially available mixes to assess both comparative and absolute levels of gene activity. The results of both methods compared favourably for four of the five genes examined (P < 0.05, Pearsons), while differences in gene expression between chronic active and acute pathologies were also identified. For example, a >50-fold increase in osteopontin (Spp1) and inositol 1-4-5 phosphate 3 kinase B (Itpkb) levels in acute plaques contrasted with the 5-fold or less increase in chronic active plaques (P < 0.05, unpaired t test). By contrast, there was no significant difference in the levels of the MS marker and calcium-dependent protease (Calpain, Capns1) in MS plaque tissue. In summary, Q-PCR analysis using SYBR Green I has allowed us to economically obtain what may be clinically significant information from small amounts of the CNS, providing an opportunity for further clinical investigations.

Econometric Modelling with Time Series : Specification, Estimation and Testing

This book provides a general framework for specifying, estimating, and testing time series econometric models. Special emphasis is given to estimation by maximum likelihood, but other methods are also discussed, including quasi-maximum likelihood estimation, generalized method of moments estimation, nonparametric estimation, and estimation by simulation. An important advantage of adopting the principle of maximum likelihood as the unifying framework for the book is that many of the estimators and test statistics proposed in econometrics can be derived within a likelihood framework, thereby providing a coherent vehicle for understanding their properties and interrelationships. In contrast to many existing econometric textbooks, which deal mainly with the theoretical properties of estimators and test statistics through a theorem-proof presentation, this book squarely addresses implementation to provide direct conduits between the theory and applied work.

Personal exposure to ultrafine particles : the influence of time-activity patterns

Exposure to ultrafine particles (UFPs) is deemed to be a major risk affecting human health. Therefore, airborne particle studies were performed in the recent years to evaluate the most critical micro-environments, as well as identifying the main UFP sources. Nonetheless, in order to properly evaluate the UFP exposure, personal monitoring is required as the only way to relate particle exposure levels to the activities performed and micro-environments visited. To this purpose, in the present work, the results of experimental analysis aimed at showing the effect of the time-activity patterns on UFP personal exposure are reported. In particular, 24 non-smoking couples (12 during winter and summer time, respectively), comprised of a man who worked full-time and a woman who was a homemaker, were analyzed using personal particle counter and GPS monitors. Each couple was investigated for a 48-h period, during which they also filled out a diary reporting the daily activities performed. Time activity patterns, particle number concentration exposure and the related dose received by the participants, in terms of particle alveolar-deposited surface area, were measured. The average exposure to particle number concentration was higher for women during both summer and winter (Summer: women 1.8×104 part. cm-3; men 9.2×103 part. cm-3; Winter: women 2.9×104 part. cm-3; men 1.3×104 part. cm-3), which was likely due to the time spent undertaking cooking activities. Staying indoors after cooking also led to higher alveolar-deposited surface area dose for both women and men during the winter time (9.12×102 and 6.33×102 mm2, respectively), when indoor ventilation was greatly reduced. The effect of cooking activities was also detected in terms of women’s dose intensity (dose per unit time), being 8.6 and 6.6 in winter and summer, respectively. On the contrary, the highest dose intensity activity for men was time spent using transportation (2.8 in both winter and summer).

Empirical evaluation of public transport travel time variability

Although transit travel time variability is essential for understanding the deterioration of reliability, optimising transit schedule and route choice; it has not attracted enough attention from the literature. This paper proposes public transport-oriented definitions of travel time variability and explores the distributions of public transport travel time using the Transit Signal Priority data. First, definitions of public transport travel time variability are established by extending the common definitions of variability in the literature and by using route and services data of public transport vehicles. Second, the paper explores the distribution of public transport travel time. A new approach for analysing the distributions involving all transit vehicles as well as vehicles from a specific route is proposed. The Lognormal distribution is revealed as the descriptors for public transport travel time from the same route and service. The methods described in this study could be of interest for both traffic managers and transit operators for planning and managing the transit systems.

Spatiotemporal model or time series model for assessing city-wide temperature effects on mortality?

Most studies examining the temperature–mortality association in a city used temperatures from one site or the average from a network of sites. This may cause measurement error as temperature varies across a city due to effects such as urban heat islands. We examined whether spatiotemporal models using spatially resolved temperatures produced different associations between temperature and mortality compared with time series models that used non-spatial temperatures. We obtained daily mortality data in 163 areas across Brisbane city, Australia from 2000 to 2004. We used ordinary kriging to interpolate spatial temperature variation across the city based on 19 monitoring sites. We used a spatiotemporal model to examine the impact of spatially resolved temperatures on mortality. Also, we used a time series model to examine non-spatial temperatures using a single site and the average temperature from three sites. We used squared Pearson scaled residuals to compare model fit. We found that kriged temperatures were consistent with observed temperatures. Spatiotemporal models using kriged temperature data yielded slightly better model fit than time series models using a single site or the average of three sites' data. Despite this better fit, spatiotemporal and time series models produced similar associations between temperature and mortality. In conclusion, time series models using non-spatial temperatures were equally good at estimating the city-wide association between temperature and mortality as spatiotemporal models.

Sunshine, rainfall, humidity and child pneumonia in the tropics : time-series analyses

Few studies have formally examined the relationship between meteorological factors and the incidence of child pneumonia in the tropics, despite the fact that most child pneumonia deaths occur there. We examined the association between four meteorological exposures (rainy days, sunshine, relative humidity, temperature) and the incidence of clinical pneumonia in young children in the Philippines using three time-series methods: correlation of seasonal patterns, distributed lag regression, and case-crossover. Lack of sunshine was most strongly associated with pneumonia in both lagged regression [overall relative risk over the following 60 days for a 1-h increase in sunshine per day was 0·67 (95% confidence interval (CI) 0·51–0·87)] and case-crossover analysis [odds ratio for a 1-h increase in mean daily sunshine 8–14 days earlier was 0·95 (95% CI 0·91–1·00)]. This association is well known in temperate settings but has not been noted previously in the tropics. Further research to assess causality is needed.

Locked nucleic acid (LNA) single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) genotype analysis and validation using real-time PCR

With an increased emphasis on genotyping of single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) in disease association studies, the genotyping platform of choice is constantly evolving. In addition, the development of more specific SNP assays and appropriate genotype validation applications is becoming increasingly critical to elucidate ambiguous genotypes. In this study, we have used SNP specific Locked Nucleic Acid (LNA) hybridization probes on a real-time PCR platform to genotype an association cohort and propose three criteria to address ambiguous genotypes. Based on the kinetic properties of PCR amplification, the three criteria address PCR amplification efficiency, the net fluorescent difference between maximal and minimal fluorescent signals and the beginning of the exponential growth phase of the reaction. Initially observed SNP allelic discrimination curves were confirmed by DNA sequencing (n = 50) and application of our three genotype criteria corroborated both sequencing and observed real-time PCR results. In addition, the tested Caucasian association cohort was in Hardy-Weinberg equilibrium and observed allele frequencies were very similar to two independently tested Caucasian association cohorts for the same tested SNP. We present here a novel approach to effectively determine ambiguous genotypes generated from a real-time PCR platform. Application of our three novel criteria provides an easy to use semi-automated genotype confirmation protocol.

Travel time prediction on signalised urban arterials by applying SARIMA modelling on Bluetooth data

Travel time prediction has long been the topic of transportation research. But most relevant prediction models in the literature are limited to motorways. Travel time prediction on arterial networks is challenging due to involving traffic signals and significant variability of individual vehicle travel time. The limited availability of traffic data from arterial networks makes travel time prediction even more challenging. Recently, there has been significant interest of exploiting Bluetooth data for travel time estimation. This research analysed the real travel time data collected by the Brisbane City Council using the Bluetooth technology on arterials. Databases, including experienced average daily travel time are created and classified for approximately 8 months. Thereafter, based on data characteristics, Seasonal Auto Regressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA) modelling is applied on the database for short-term travel time prediction. The SARMIA model not only takes the previous continuous lags into account, but also uses the values from the same time of previous days for travel time prediction. This is carried out by defining a seasonality coefficient which improves the accuracy of travel time prediction in linear models. The accuracy, robustness and transferability of the model are evaluated through comparing the real and predicted values on three sites within Brisbane network. The results contain the detailed validation for different prediction horizons (5 min to 90 minutes). The model performance is evaluated mainly on congested periods and compared to the naive technique of considering the historical average.

Modelling busway station dwell time using smart cards

Dwell time at the busway station has a significant effect on bus capacity and delay. Dwell time has conventionally been estimated using models developed on the basis of field survey data. However field survey is resource and cost intensive, so dwell time estimation based on limited observations can be somewhat inaccurate. Most public transport systems are now equipped with Automatic Passenger Count (APC) and/or Automatic Fare Collection (AFC) systems. AFC in particular reduces on-board ticketing time, driver’s work load and ultimately reduces bus dwell time. AFC systems can record all passenger transactions providing transit agencies with access to vast quantities of data. AFC data provides transaction timestamps, however this information differs from dwell time because passengers may tag on or tag off at times other than when doors open and close. This research effort contended that models could be developed to reliably estimate dwell time distributions when measured distributions of transaction times are known. Development of the models required calibration and validation using field survey data of actual dwell times, and an appreciation of another component of transaction time being bus time in queue. This research develops models for a peak period and off peak period at a busway station on the South East Busway (SEB) in Brisbane, Australia.

“Would you; could you; on a boat?” Wait-time and travel-time activities during river ferry journeys and their relationship to overall satisfaction in Brisbane Queensland

This study investigates travel behaviour and wait-time activities as a component of passenger satisfaction with public transport in Brisbane, Australia. Australian transport planners recognise a variety of benefits to encouraging a mode shift away from automobile travel in favour of active and public transport use. Efforts to increase public transport ridership have included introducing state of the art passenger information systems, improving physical station access, and integrating system pricing, routes and scheduling for train, bus and ferry. Previous research regarding satisfaction with public transport emphasizes technical dimensions of service quality, including the timing and reliability of service. Those factors might be especially significant for frequent (commuting) travellers who look to balance the cost and efficiency of their travel options. In contrast, infrequent (leisure) passengers may be more concerned with way finding and the sensory experience of the journey. Perhaps due to the small relative proportion of trips made by river ferry compared to bus and rail, this mode of public transport has not received as much attention in travel-behaviour research. This case study of Brisbane’s river ferry system examines ferry passengers at selected terminals during peak and off-peak travel times to find out how travel behaviours and activities correlate to satisfaction with ferry travel. Data include 416 questionnaires completed by passengers intercepted during wait times at seven CityCat terminals in Brisbane. Descriptive statistical analysis revealed associations between specific wait time activities and satisfaction levels that could inform planners seeking to increase ridership and quality of life through ferry-oriented development.

A matter of time

The Queensland Court of Appeal recently handed down its decision in Caprice Property Holdings Pty Ltd v McLeay [2013] QCA 120. The decision considers the operation of the standard REIQ contract for the sale of land as it impacts on the time for settlement and the respective obligations of the buyer and the seller. The decision highlights both practical and legal issues arising from a failure to render performance at the stipulated time...