994 resultados para Crop yield forecasting


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Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

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Maize demand for food, livestock feed, and biofuel is expected to increase substantially. The Western U.S. Corn Belt accounts for 23% of U.S. maize production, and irrigated maize accounts for 43 and 58% of maize land area and total production, respectively, in this region. The most sensitive parameters (yield potential [YP], water-limited yield potential [YP-W], yield gap between actual yield and YP, and resource-use efficiency) governing performance of maize systems in the region are lacking. A simulation model was used to quantify YP under irrigated and rainfed conditions based on weather data, soil properties, and crop management at 18 locations. In a separate study, 5-year soil water data measured in central Nebraska were used to analyze soil water recharge during the non-growing season because soil water content at sowing is a critical component of water supply available for summer crops. On-farm data, including yield, irrigation, and nitrogen (N) rate for 777 field-years, was used to quantify size of yield gaps and evaluate resource-use efficiency. Simulated average YP and YP-W were 14.4 and 8.3 Mg ha-1, respectively. Geospatial variation of YP was associated with solar radiation and temperature during post-anthesis phase while variation in water-limited yield was linked to the longitudinal variation in seasonal rainfall and evaporative demand. Analysis of soil water recharge indicates that 80% of variation in soil water content at sowing can be explained by precipitation during non-growing season and residual soil water at end of previous growing season. A linear relationship between YP-W and water supply (slope: 19.3 kg ha-1 mm-1; x-intercept: 100 mm) can be used as a benchmark to diagnose and improve farmer’s water productivity (WP; kg grain per unit of water supply). Evaluation of data from farmer’s fields provides proof-of-concept and helps identify management constraints to high levels of productivity and resource-use efficiency. On average, actual yields of irrigated maize systems were 11% below YP. WP and N-fertilizer use efficiency (NUE) were high despite application of large amounts of irrigation water and N fertilizer (14 kg grain mm-1 water supply and 71 kg grain kg-1 N fertilizer). While there is limited scope for substantial increases in actual average yields, WP and NUE can be further increased by: (1) switching surface to pivot systems, (2) using conservation instead of conventional tillage systems in soybean-maize rotations, (3) implementation of irrigation schedules based on crop water requirements, and (4) better N fertilizer management.

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ABSTRACT This long term study focuses on testing various hazelnut cultivars for yield, nut quality and disease resistance. There are various cultivars that are being tested for these desired traits but only the Grand Traverse and Skinner will be applicable for the results of this localized study. The desired traits of commercial nut production are best matched by these two cultivars. Results from previous harvests will be used to draw trends to recommend commercially functional cultivars in Eastern Nebraska.

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Citrus Variegated Chlorosis (CVC) is currently present in approximately 40% of citrus plants in Brazil and causes an annual loss of around 120 million US dollars to the Brazilian citrus industry. Despite the fact that CVC has been present in Brazil for over 20 years, a relationship between disease intensity and yield loss has not been established. In order to achieve this, an experiment was carried out in a randomized block design in a 3 x 2 factorial scheme with 10-year-old Natal sweet orange. The following treatments were applied: irrigation with 0, 50 or 100% of the evapotranspiration of the crop, combined with natural infection or artificial inoculation with Xylella fastidiosa, the causal agent of CVC. The experiment was evaluated during three seasons. A negative exponential model was fitted to the relationships between yield versus CVC severity and yield versus Area Under Disease Progress Curve (AUDPC). In addition, the relationship between yield versus CVC severity and canopy volume was fitted by a multivariate exponential model. The use of the AUDPC variable showed practical limitations when compared with the variable CVC severity. The parameter values in the relationship of yieldCVC severity were similar for all treatments unlike in the multivariate model. Consequently, the yieldCVC intensity relationship (with 432 data points) could be described by one single model: y = 114.07 exp(-0.017 x), where y is yield (symptomless fruit weight in kg) and x is disease severity (R2 = 0.45; P < 0.01).

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The identification of quantitative trait loci (QTL) and marker-assisted selection with a view to breeding programs have aroused great interest, including for cashew improvement. This study identified QTL for yield-related traits: nut weight, male and hermaphrodite flowers. The traits were evaluated in 71 F-1 genotypes of the cross CCP 1001 x CP 96. The methods of interval mapping and multiple QTL mapping were applied to identify QTL. Eleven QTL were detected: three for nut weight, four for male flowers and four for hermaphrodite flowers. The QTL accounted for 3.79 to 12.98 % of the total phenotypic variance and had phenotypic effects of -31.81 to 34.25 %. The potential for marker-assisted selection of the QTL hf-2f and hf-3m is great and the phenotypic effects and percentage of phenotypic variation higher than of the others.

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Sewage sludge has been used to fertilize coffee, increasing the risk of metal contamination in this crop. The aim of this work was to study the effects of Cd, Zn and Ni in adult coffee plants growing under field conditions. Seven-year-old coffee plants growing in the field received one of three;loses of Cd, Zn or Ni: 15,45 and 90 g Cd plant(-1); 35, 105 and 210 g Ni plant(-1); and 100, 300 and 600 g Zn plant(-1), with all three metals in the form of sulphate salts. After three months, we noticed good penetration of the three metals into the soil, especially in the first 50 cm, which is the region where most coffee plant roots are concentrated. Leaf concentrations of K, Ca, Mg, S, B, Cu, Fe and Mn were nor affected. N levels did not change with the application of Ni or Zn but were reduced with either 45 or 90 g Cd plant(-1). Foliar P concentrations decreased with the addition of 45 and 90 g Cd plant(-1) and 600 g Zn plant(-1). Zn levels in leaves were not affected by the application of Cd or Ni. The highest concentrations. of Zn were found in branches (30-230 mg kg(-1)), leaves (7-35 mg kg(-1)) and beam (4-6.5 mg kg(-1)); Ni was found in leaves (4-45 mg kg(-1)), branches (3-18 mg kg(-1)) and beans (1-5 mg kg(-1)); and Cd was found in branches (0-6.2 mg kg(-1)) and beans (0-1.5 mg kg(-1)) but was absent in leaves. The mean yield of two harvests was not affected by Ni, but it decreased at the highest dose of Zn (600 g plant(-1)) and the two higher doses of Cd (45 and 90 g plant(-1)). Plants died when treated with the highest dose of Cd and showed symptoms of toxicity with the highest dose of Zn. Nevertheless, based on the amounts of metal used and the results obtained, we conclude that coffee plants are highly tolerant to the three metals tested. Moreover, even at high doses, there was very little transport to the beans, which is the part consumed by humans. (C) 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

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Nitrogen management has been intensively studied on several crops and recently associated with variable rate on-the-go application based on crop sensors. Such studies are scarce for sugarcane and as a biofuel crop the energy input matters, seeking high positive energy balance production and low carbon emission on the whole production system. This article presents the procedure and shows the first results obtained using a nitrogen and biomass sensor (N-Sensor (TM) ALS, Yara International ASA) to indicate the nitrogen application demands of commercial sugarcane fields. Eight commercial fields from one sugar mill in the state of Sao Paulo, Brazil, varying from 15 to 25 ha in size, were monitored. Conditions varied from sandy to heavy soils and the previous harvesting occurred in May and October 2009, including first, second, and third ratoon stages. Each field was scanned with the sensor three times during the season (at 0.2, 0.4, and 0.6 m stem height), followed by tissue sampling for biomass and nitrogen uptake at ten spots inside the area, guided by the different values shown by the sensor. The results showed a high correlation between sensor values and sugarcane biomass and nitrogen uptake, thereby supporting the potential use of this technology to develop algorithms to manage variable rate application of nitrogen for sugarcane.

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Brazil is the largest sugarcane producer in the world and has a privileged position to attend to national and international market places. To maintain the high production of sugarcane, it is fundamental to improve the forecasting models of crop seasons through the use of alternative technologies, such as remote sensing. Thus, the main purpose of this article is to assess the results of two different statistical forecasting methods applied to an agroclimatic index (the water requirement satisfaction index; WRSI) and the sugarcane spectral response (normalized difference vegetation index; NDVI) registered on National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (NOAA-AVHRR) satellite images. We also evaluated the cross-correlation between these two indexes. According to the results obtained, there are meaningful correlations between NDVI and WRSI with time lags. Additionally, the adjusted model for NDVI presented more accurate results than the forecasting models for WRSI. Finally, the analyses indicate that NDVI is more predictable due to its seasonality and the WRSI values are more variable making it difficult to forecast.

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The objective of this work was to evaluate the yield performance and macronutrient content of rubber extracted from four Hevea brasiliensis clones, under different tapping systems and plant phenological stages. The experiment was carried out in the 2010 and 2011 crop seasons, in a split-plot randomized complete block design, with four replicates. The main treatments - GT 1, PB 235, IAN 873, and RRIM 600 clones - were allocated in the plots, and the secondary treatments, which were the tapping systems 1/2S d/2, 1/2S d/4 ET 2.5%, and 1/2S d/7 ET 2.5%, were allocated in the subplots. The analyzed variables were natural rubber yield and macronutrient contents. Samples of natural rubber were obtained in the leaf development, mature leaf, and leaf senescence phenological stages. Rubber yield and its macronutrient contents are more influenced by tapping practice than by genetic material in the restrictive phenological stages of foliage.

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Maize is one of the most important crops in the world. The products generated from this crop are largely used in the starch industry, the animal and human nutrition sector, and biomass energy production and refineries. For these reasons, there is much interest in figuring the potential grain yield of maize genotypes in relation to the environment in which they will be grown, as the productivity directly affects agribusiness or farm profitability. Questions like these can be investigated with ecophysiological crop models, which can be organized according to different philosophies and structures. The main objective of this work is to conceptualize a stochastic model for predicting maize grain yield and productivity under different conditions of water supply while considering the uncertainties of daily climate data. Therefore, one focus is to explain the model construction in detail, and the other is to present some results in light of the philosophy adopted. A deterministic model was built as the basis for the stochastic model. The former performed well in terms of the curve shape of the above-ground dry matter over time as well as the grain yield under full and moderate water deficit conditions. Through the use of a triangular distribution for the harvest index and a bivariate normal distribution of the averaged daily solar radiation and air temperature, the stochastic model satisfactorily simulated grain productivity, i.e., it was found that 10,604 kg ha(-1) is the most likely grain productivity, very similar to the productivity simulated by the deterministic model and for the real conditions based on a field experiment.

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DISTRIBUTION OF NITROGEN AMMONIUM SULFATE (N-15) SOIL-PLANT SYSTEM IN A NO-TILLAGE CROP SUCCESSION The N use by maize (Zea mays, L.) is affected by N-fertilizer levels. This study was conducted using a sandy-clay texture soil (Hapludox) to evaluate the efficiency of N use by maize in a crop succession, based on N-15-labeled ammonium sulfate (5.5 atom %) at different rates, and to assess the residual fertilizer effect in two no-tillage succession crops (signalgrass and corn). Two maize crops were evaluated, the first in the growing season 2006, the second in 2007, and brachiaria in the second growing season. The treatments consisted of N rates of 60, 120 and 180 kg ha(-1) in the form of labeled N-15 ammonium sulfate. This fertilizer was applied in previously defined subplots, only to the first maize crop (growing season 2006). The variables total accumulated N; fertilizer-derived N in corn plants and pasture; fertilizer-derived N in the soil; and recovery of fertilizer-N by plants and soil were evaluated. The highest uptake of fertilizer N by corn was observed after application of 120 kg ha(-1) N and the residual effect of N fertilizer on subsequent corn and Brachiaria was highest after application of 180 kg ha(-1) N. After the crop succession, soil N recovery was 32, 23 and 27 % for the respective applications of 60, 120 and 180 kg ha(-1) N.

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Recently high spectral resolution sensors have been developed, which allow new and more advanced applications in agriculture. Motivated by the increasing importance of hyperspectral remote sensing data, the need for research is important to define optimal wavebands to estimate biophysical parameters of crop. The use of narrow band vegetation indices (VI) derived from hyperspectral measurements acquired by a field spectrometer was evaluated to estimate bean (Phaseolus vulgaris L.) grain yield, plant height and leaf area index (LAI). Field canopy reflectance measurements were acquired at six bean growth stages over 48 plots with four water levels (179.5; 256.5; 357.5 and 406.2 mm) and tree nitrogen rates (0; 80 and 160 kg ha-1) and four replicates. The following VI was analyzed: OSNBR (optimum simple narrow-band reflectivity); NB_NDVI (narrow-band normalized difference vegetation index) and NDVI (normalized difference index). The vegetation indices investigated (OSNBR, NB_NDVI and NDVI) were efficient to estimate LAI, plant height and grain yield. During all crop development, the best correlations between biophysical variables and spectral variables were observed on V4 (the third trifoliolate leaves were unfolded in 50 % of plants) and R6 (plants developed first flowers in 50 % of plants) stages, according to the variable analyzed.

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Studies addressing the estimation of genetic parameters in soybean have not emphasized the epistatic effects. The purpose of this study was to estimate the significance of these effects on soybean grain yield, based on the Modified Triple Test Cross design. Thirty-two inbred lines derived from a cross between two contrasting lines were used, which were crossed with two testers (L1 and L2). The experiments were carried out at two locations, in 10 x 10 triple lattice designs with 9 replications, containing 32 lines (Pi ), 64 crosses (32 Pi x L1 and 32 Pi x L2 ) and controls. The variation between ( ͞L1i + ͞L2i - ͞Pi ) revealed the presence of epistasis, as well as an interaction of epistasis x environment. Since the predominant component of epistasis in autogamous species is additive x additive (i type), we suggest postponing the selection for grain yield to later generations of inbreeding in order to exploit the beneficial effects of additive x additive epistasis.

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Fusarium Head Blight (FHB) is a worldwide cereal disease responsible of significant yield reduction, inferior grain quality, and mycotoxin accumulation. Fusarium graminearum and F. culmorum are the prevalent causal agents. FHB has been endemic in Italy since 1995, while there are no records about its presence in Syria. Forty-eight and forty-six wheat kernel samples were collected from different localities and analyzed for fungal presence and mycotoxin contamination. Fusarium strains were identified morphologically but the molecular confirmation was performed only for some species. Further differentiation of the chemotypes for trichothecene synthesis by F. graminearum and F. culmorum strains was conducted by PCR assays. Fusarium spp. were present in 62.5% of Syrian samples. 3Acetyl-Deoxynivalenol and nivalenol chemotypes were found in F. culmorum whilst all F. graminearum strains belonged to NIV chemotype. Italian samples were infected with Fusarium spp for 67.4%. 15Ac-DON was the prevalent chemotype in F. graminearum, while 3Ac-DON chemotype was detected in F. culmorum. The 60 Syrian Fusarium strains tested for mycotoxin production by HPLC-MS/MS have shown the prevalence of zearalenone while the emerging mycotoxins were almost absent. The analysis of the different Syrian and Italian samples of wheat kernels for their mycotoxin content showed that Syrian kernels were mainly contaminated with storage mycotoxins, aflatoxins and ochratoxin whilst Italian grains with mainly Fusarium mycotoxins. The aggressiveness of several Syrian F. culmorum isolates was estimated using three different assays: floret inoculation in growth chamber, ear inoculation in the field and a validated new Petri-dish test. The study of the behaviour of different Syrian wheat cultivars, grown under different conditions, has revealed that Jory is a FHB Syrian tolerant cultivar. This is the first study in Syria on Fusarium spp. associated to FHB, Fusarium mycotoxin producers and grain quality.

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Switchgrass (Panicum virgatum L.) is a perennial grass holding great promise as a biofuel resource. While Michigan’s Upper Peninsula has an appropriate land base and climatic conditions, there is little research exploring the possibilities of switchgrass production. The overall objectives of this research were to investigate switchgrass establishment in the northern edge of its distribution through: investigating the effects of competition on the germination and establishment of switchgrass through the developmental and competitive characteristics of Cave-in-Rock switchgrass and large crabgrass (Digitaria sanguinalis L.) in Michigan’s Upper Peninsula; and, determining the optimum planting depths and timing for switchgrass in Michigan’s Upper Peninsula. For the competition study, a randomized complete block design was installed June 2009 at two locations in Michigan’s Upper Peninsula. Four treatments (0, 1, 4, and 8 plants/m2) of crabgrass were planted with one switchgrass plant. There was a significant difference between switchgrass biomass produced in year one, as a function of crabgrass weed pressure. There was no significant difference between the switchgrass biomass produced in year two versus previous crabgrass weed pressure. There is a significant difference between switchgrass biomass produced in year one and two. For the depth and timing study, a completely randomized design was installed at two locations in Michigan’s Upper Peninsula on seven planting dates (three fall 2009, and four spring 2010); 25 seeds were planted 2 cm apart along 0.5 m rows at depths of: 0.6 cm, 1.3 cm, and 1.9 cm. Emergence and biomass yields were compared by planting date, and depths. A greenhouse seeding experiment was established using the same planting depths and parameters as the field study. The number of seedlings was tallied daily for 30 days. There was a significant difference in survivorship between the fall and spring planting dates, with the spring being more successful. Of the four spring planting dates, there was a significant difference between May and June in emergence and biomass yield. June planting dates had the most percent emergence and total survivorship. There is no significant difference between planting switchgrass at depths of 0.6 cm, 1.3 cm, and 1.9 cm. In conclusion, switchgrass showed no signs of a legacy effect of competition from year one, on biomass production. Overall, an antagonistic effect on switchgrass biomass yield during the establishment period has been observed as a result of increasing competing weed pressure. When planting switchgrass in Michigan’s Upper Peninsula, it should be done in the spring, within the first two weeks of June, at any depth ranging from 0.6 cm to 1.9 cm.