Survival-time analysis of white spruce during spruce budworm defoliation

Abstract

Spatial prediction of monthly wind speeds in complex terrain with adaptive general regression neural networks

This paper presents the general regression neural networks (GRNN) as a nonlinear regression method for the interpolation of monthly wind speeds in complex Alpine orography. GRNN is trained using data coming from Swiss meteorological networks to learn the statistical relationship between topographic features and wind speed. The terrain convexity, slope and exposure are considered by extracting features from the digital elevation model at different spatial scales using specialised convolution filters. A database of gridded monthly wind speeds is then constructed by applying GRNN in prediction mode during the period 1968-2008. This study demonstrates that using topographic features as inputs in GRNN significantly reduces cross-validation errors with respect to low-dimensional models integrating only geographical coordinates and terrain height for the interpolation of wind speed. The spatial predictability of wind speed is found to be lower in summer than in winter due to more complex and weaker wind-topography relationships. The relevance of these relationships is studied using an adaptive version of the GRNN algorithm which allows to select the useful terrain features by eliminating the noisy ones. This research provides a framework for extending the low-dimensional interpolation models to high-dimensional spaces by integrating additional features accounting for the topographic conditions at multiple spatial scales. Copyright (c) 2012 Royal Meteorological Society.

Longer term clinical and virological outcome of sub-Saharan African participants on antiretroviral treatment in the Swiss HIV Cohort Study.

OBJECTIVES: Persons from sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) are increasingly enrolled in the Swiss HIV Cohort Study (SHCS). Cohorts from other European countries showed higher rates of viral failure among their SSA participants. We analyzed long-term outcomes of SSA versus North Western European participants. DESIGN: We analyzed data of the SHCS, a nation-wide prospective cohort study of HIV-infected adults at 7 sites in Switzerland. METHODS: SSA and North Western European participants were included if their first treatment combination consisted of at least 3 antiretroviral drugs (cART), if they had at least 1 follow-up visit, did not report active injecting drug use, and did not start cART with CD4 counts >200 cells per microliter during pregnancy. Early viral response, CD4 cell recovery, viral failure, adherence, discontinuation from SHCS, new AIDS-defining events, and survival were analyzed using linear regression and Cox proportional hazard models. RESULTS: The proportion of participants from SSA within the SHCS increased from 2.6% (<1995) to 20.8% (2005-2009). Of 4656 included participants, 808 (17.4%) were from SSA. Early viral response (6 months) and rate of viral failure in an intent-to-stay-on-cART approach were similar. However, SSA participants had a higher risk of viral failure on cART (adjusted hazard ratio: 2.03, 95% confidence interval: 1.50 to 2.75). Self-reported adherence was inferior for SSA. There was no increase of AIDS-defining events or mortality in SSA participants. CONCLUSIONS: Increased attention must be given to factors negatively influencing adherence to cART in participants from SSA to guarantee equal longer-term results on cART.

A random linear functional approach to efficiency bounds

This paper suggests a method for obtaining efficiency bounds in models containing either only infinite-dimensional parameters or both finite- and infinite-dimensional parameters (semiparametric models). The method is based on a theory of random linear functionals applied to the gradient of the log-likelihood functional and is illustrated by computing the lower bound for Cox's regression model

High capacity robust audio watermarking scheme based on FFT and linear regression

Peer-reviewed

Random regression models to estimate genetic parameters for milk production of Guzerat cows using orthogonal Legendre polynomials

The objective of this work was to compare random regression models for the estimation of genetic parameters for Guzerat milk production, using orthogonal Legendre polynomials. Records (20,524) of test-day milk yield (TDMY) from 2,816 first-lactation Guzerat cows were used. TDMY grouped into 10-monthly classes were analyzed for additive genetic effect and for environmental and residual permanent effects (random effects), whereas the contemporary group, calving age (linear and quadratic effects) and mean lactation curve were analized as fixed effects. Trajectories for the additive genetic and permanent environmental effects were modeled by means of a covariance function employing orthogonal Legendre polynomials ranging from the second to the fifth order. Residual variances were considered in one, four, six, or ten variance classes. The best model had six residual variance classes. The heritability estimates for the TDMY records varied from 0.19 to 0.32. The random regression model that used a second-order Legendre polynomial for the additive genetic effect, and a fifth-order polynomial for the permanent environmental effect is adequate for comparison by the main employed criteria. The model with a second-order Legendre polynomial for the additive genetic effect, and that with a fourth-order for the permanent environmental effect could also be employed in these analyses.

Multivariable regression analysis and hot-spot stress approach into fatigue life estimations of welded joints

Kolmen eri hitsausliitoksen väsymisikä arvio on analysoitu monimuuttuja regressio analyysin avulla. Regression perustana on laaja S-N tietokanta joka on kerätty kirjallisuudesta. Tarkastellut liitokset ovat tasalevy liitos, krusiformi liitos ja pitkittäisripa levyssä. Muuttujina ovat jännitysvaihtelu, kuormitetun levyn paksuus ja kuormitus tapa. Paksuus effekti on käsitelty uudelleen kaikkia kolmea liitosta ajatellen. Uudelleen käsittelyn avulla on varmistettu paksuus effektin olemassa olo ennen monimuuttuja regressioon siirtymistä. Lineaariset väsymisikä yhtalöt on ajettu kolmelle hitsausliitokselle ottaen huomioon kuormitetun levyn paksuus sekä kuormitus tapa. Väsymisikä yhtalöitä on verrattu ja keskusteltu testitulosten valossa, jotka on kerätty kirjallisuudesta. Neljä tutkimustaon tehty kerättyjen väsymistestien joukosta ja erilaisia väsymisikä arvio metodeja on käytetty väsymisiän arviointiin. Tuloksia on tarkasteltu ja niistä keskusteltu oikeiden testien valossa. Tutkimuksissa on katsottu 2mm ja 6mm symmetristäpitkittäisripaa levyssä, 12.7mm epäsymmetristä pitkittäisripaa, 38mm symmetristä pitkittäisripaa vääntökuormituksessa ja 25mm/38mm kuorman kantavaa krusiformi liitosta vääntökuormituksessa. Mallinnus on tehty niin lähelle testi liitosta kuin mahdollista. Väsymisikä arviointi metodit sisältävät hot-spot metodin jossa hot-spot jännitys on laskettu kahta lineaarista ja epälineaarista ekstrapolointiakäyttäen sekä paksuuden läpi integrointia käyttäen. Lovijännitys ja murtumismekaniikka metodeja on käytetty krusiformi liitosta laskiessa.

Prediction of hip fracture risk by quantitative ultrasound in more than 7000 Swiss women > or =70 years of age: comparison of three technologically different bone ultrasound devices in the SEMOF study.

To compare the prediction of hip fracture risk of several bone ultrasounds (QUS), 7062 Swiss women > or =70 years of age were measured with three QUSs (two of the heel, one of the phalanges). Heel QUSs were both predictive of hip fracture risk, whereas the phalanges QUS was not. INTRODUCTION: As the number of hip fracture is expected to increase during these next decades, it is important to develop strategies to detect subjects at risk. Quantitative bone ultrasound (QUS), an ionizing radiation-free method, which is transportable, could be interesting for this purpose. MATERIALS AND METHODS: The Swiss Evaluation of the Methods of Measurement of Osteoporotic Fracture Risk (SEMOF) study is a multicenter cohort study, which compared three QUSs for the assessment of hip fracture risk in a sample of 7609 elderly ambulatory women > or =70 years of age. Two QUSs measured the heel (Achilles+; GE-Lunar and Sahara; Hologic), and one measured the heel (DBM Sonic 1200; IGEA). The Cox proportional hazards regression was used to estimate the hazard of the first hip fracture, adjusted for age, BMI, and center, and the area under the ROC curves were calculated to compare the devices and their parameters. RESULTS: From the 7609 women who were included in the study, 7062 women 75.2 +/- 3.1 (SD) years of age were prospectively followed for 2.9 +/- 0.8 years. Eighty women reported a hip fracture. A decrease by 1 SD of the QUS variables corresponded to an increase of the hip fracture risk from 2.3 (95% CI, 1.7, 3.1) to 2.6 (95% CI, 1.9, 3.4) for the three variables of Achilles+ and from 2.2 (95% CI, 1.7, 3.0) to 2.4 (95% CI, 1.8, 3.2) for the three variables of Sahara. Risk gradients did not differ significantly among the variables of the two heel QUS devices. On the other hand, the phalanges QUS (DBM Sonic 1200) was not predictive of hip fracture risk, with an adjusted hazard risk of 1.2 (95% CI, 0.9, 1.5), even after reanalysis of the digitalized data and using different cut-off levels (1700 or 1570 m/s). CONCLUSIONS: In this elderly women population, heel QUS devices were both predictive of hip fracture risk, whereas the phalanges QUS device was not.

Cultural Biases in Public Service Delivery : Evidence from a Regression Discontinuity Approach

What determines the share of public employment, at a given size of the State, in countries of similar levels of economic development? While the theoretical and empirical literature on this issue has mostly considered technical dimensions (efficiency and political considerations), this paper emphasizes the role of culture and quantifies it. We build a representative database for contracting choices of municipalities in Switzerland and exploit the discontinuity at the Swiss language border at identical actual set of policies and institutions to analyze the causal e↵ect of culture on the choice of how public services are provided. We find that French-speaking border municipalities are 50% less likely to contract with the private sector than their German-speaking adjacent municipalities. Technical dimensions are much smaller by comparison. This result points out that culture is a source of a potential bias that distorts the optimal choice for public service delivery. Systematic differences in the level of confidence in public administration and private companies potentially explain this discrepancy in private sector participation in public services provision.

Is the adiposity-associated FTO gene variant related to all-cause mortality independent of adiposity? Meta-analysis of data from 169,551 Caucasian adults.

Previously, a single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP), rs9939609, in the FTO gene showed a much stronger association with all-cause mortality than expected from its association with body mass index (BMI), body fat mass index (FMI) and waist circumference (WC). This finding implies that the SNP has strong pleiotropic effects on adiposity and adiposity-independent pathological pathways that leads to increased mortality. To investigate this further, we conducted a meta-analysis of similar data from 34 longitudinal studies including 169,551 adult Caucasians among whom 27,100 died during follow-up. Linear regression showed that the minor allele of the FTO SNP was associated with greater BMI (n = 169,551; 0.32 kg m(-2) ; 95% CI 0.28-0.32, P < 1 × 10(-32) ), WC (n = 152,631; 0.76 cm; 0.68-0.84, P < 1 × 10(-32) ) and FMI (n = 48,192; 0.17 kg m(-2) ; 0.13-0.22, P = 1.0 × 10(-13) ). Cox proportional hazard regression analyses for mortality showed that the hazards ratio (HR) for the minor allele of the FTO SNPs was 1.02 (1.00-1.04, P = 0.097), but the apparent excess risk was eliminated after adjustment for BMI and WC (HR: 1.00; 0.98-1.03, P = 0.662) and for FMI (HR: 1.00; 0.96-1.04, P = 0.932). In conclusion, this study does not support that the FTO SNP is associated with all-cause mortality independently of the adiposity phenotypes.

The effect of dose on the antimalarial efficacy of artemether-lumefantrine: a systematic review and pooled analysis of individual patient data.

BACKGROUND: Artemether-lumefantrine is the most widely used artemisinin-based combination therapy for malaria, although treatment failures occur in some regions. We investigated the effect of dosing strategy on efficacy in a pooled analysis from trials done in a wide range of malaria-endemic settings. METHODS: We searched PubMed for clinical trials that enrolled and treated patients with artemether-lumefantrine and were published from 1960 to December, 2012. We merged individual patient data from these trials by use of standardised methods. The primary endpoint was the PCR-adjusted risk of Plasmodium falciparum recrudescence by day 28. Secondary endpoints consisted of the PCR-adjusted risk of P falciparum recurrence by day 42, PCR-unadjusted risk of P falciparum recurrence by day 42, early parasite clearance, and gametocyte carriage. Risk factors for PCR-adjusted recrudescence were identified using Cox's regression model with frailty shared across the study sites. FINDINGS: We included 61 studies done between January, 1998, and December, 2012, and included 14 327 patients in our analyses. The PCR-adjusted therapeutic efficacy was 97·6% (95% CI 97·4-97·9) at day 28 and 96·0% (95·6-96·5) at day 42. After controlling for age and parasitaemia, patients prescribed a higher dose of artemether had a lower risk of having parasitaemia on day 1 (adjusted odds ratio [OR] 0·92, 95% CI 0·86-0·99 for every 1 mg/kg increase in daily artemether dose; p=0·024), but not on day 2 (p=0·69) or day 3 (0·087). In Asia, children weighing 10-15 kg who received a total lumefantrine dose less than 60 mg/kg had the lowest PCR-adjusted efficacy (91·7%, 95% CI 86·5-96·9). In Africa, the risk of treatment failure was greatest in malnourished children aged 1-3 years (PCR-adjusted efficacy 94·3%, 95% CI 92·3-96·3). A higher artemether dose was associated with a lower gametocyte presence within 14 days of treatment (adjusted OR 0·92, 95% CI 0·85-0·99; p=0·037 for every 1 mg/kg increase in total artemether dose). INTERPRETATION: The recommended dose of artemether-lumefantrine provides reliable efficacy in most patients with uncomplicated malaria. However, therapeutic efficacy was lowest in young children from Asia and young underweight children from Africa; a higher dose regimen should be assessed in these groups. FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

The Classification of Vitreous Seeds in Retinoblastoma and Response to Intravitreal Melphalan.

PURPOSE: To evaluate the clinical characteristics of the 3 classifications of vitreous seeds in retinoblastoma-dust (class 1), spheres (class 2), and clouds (class 3)-and their responses to intravitreal melphalan. DESIGN: Retrospective, bi-institutional cohort study. PARTICIPANTS: A total of 87 patient eyes received 475 intravitreal injections of melphalan (median dose, 30 μg) given weekly, a median of 5 times (range, 1-12 times). METHODS: At presentation, the vitreous seeds were classified into 3 groups: dust, spheres, and clouds. Indirect ophthalmoscopy, fundus photography, ultrasonography, and ultrasonic biomicroscopy were used to evaluate clinical response to weekly intravitreal melphalan injections and time to regression of vitreous seeds. Kaplan-Meier estimates of time to regression and ocular survival, patient survival, and event-free survival (EFS) were calculated and then compared using the Mantel-Cox test of curve. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Time to regression of vitreous seeds, patient survival, ocular survival, and EFS. RESULTS: The difference in time to regression was significantly different for the 3 seed classes (P < 0.0001): the median time to regression was 0.6, 1.7, and 7.7 months for dust, spheres, and clouds, respectively. Eyes with dust received significantly fewer injections and a lower median and cumulative dose of melphalan, whereas eyes with clouds received significantly more injections and a higher median and cumulative dose of melphalan. Overall, the 2-year Kaplan-Meier estimates for ocular survival, patient survival, and EFS (related to target seeds) were 90.4% (95% confidence interval [CI], 79.7-95.6), 100%, and 98.5% (95% CI, 90-99.7), respectively. CONCLUSIONS: The regression and response of vitreous seeds to intravitreal melphalan are different for each seed classification. The vitreous seed classification can be predictive of time to regression, number, median dose, and cumulative dose of intravitreal melphalan injections required.

Local Salmonella immunostimulation recruits vaccine-specific CD8 T cells and increases regression of bladder tumor.

NlmCategory="UNASSIGNED">The efficacy of antitumoral responses can be increased using combinatorial vaccine strategies. We recently showed that vaccination could be optimized by local administration of diverse molecular or bacterial agents to target and augment antitumoral CD8 T cells in the genital mucosa (GM) and increase regression of cervical cancer in an animal model. Non muscle-invasive bladder cancer is another disease that is easily amenable to local therapies. In contrast to data obtained in the GM, in this study we show that intravesical (IVES) instillation of synthetic toll-like receptor (TLR) agonists only modestly induced recruitment of CD8 T cells to the bladder. However, IVES administration of Ty21a, a live bacterial vaccine against typhoid fever, was much more effective and increased the number of total and vaccine-specific CD8 T cells in the bladder approximately 10 fold. Comparison of chemokines induced in the bladder by either CpG (a TLR-9 agonist) or Ty21a highlighted the preferential increase in complement component 5a, CXCL5, CXCL2, CCL8, and CCL5 by Ty21a, suggesting their involvement in the attraction of T cells to the bladder. IVES treatment with Ty21a after vaccination also significantly increased tumor regression compared to vaccination alone, resulting in 90% survival in an orthotopic murine model of bladder cancer expressing a prototype tumor antigen. Our data demonstrate that combining vaccination with local immunostimulation may be an effective treatment strategy for different types of cancer and also highlight the great potential of the Ty21a vaccine, which is routinely used worldwide, in such combinatorial therapies.

Surgery for unruptured arteriovenous malformations of the brain is better than conservative management for selected cases : a prospective cohort study

Object. The aim of this study was to identify patients who are likely to benefit from surgery for unruptured brain arterriovenous malformations (ubAVMs). Methods. The authors' database was interrogated for the risk and outcome of hemorrhage after referral and the out- come from surgery. Furthermore, the outcome from surgery incorporated those cases excluded from surgery because of perceived greater risk (sensitivity analysis). Finally, a comparison was made for the authors' patients between the natural history and surgery. Data were collected for 427 consecutively enrolled patients with ubAVMs in a database that in- cluded patients who were conservatively managed. Kaplan-Meier analysis was performed on patients observed for more than 1 day to determine the risk of hemorrhage. Variables that may influence the risk of first hemorrhage were assessed using Cox proportional hazard regression models and Kaplan-Meier life table analyses from referral until the first occur- rence of the following: hemorrhage, treatment, or last review. The outcome from surgery (leading to a new permanent neurological deficit with last review modified Rankin Scale [mRS] score > 1) was determined. Further sensitivity analy- sis was made to predict risk from surgery for the total ubAVM cohort by incorporating outcomes of surgical cases as well as cases excluded from surgery because of perceived risk, and assuming an adverse outcome for these excluded cases. Results. A total of 377 patients with a ubAVM were included in the analysis of the risk of hemorrhage. The 5-year risk of hemorrhage for ubAVM was 11.5%. Hemorrhage resulted in an mRS score > 1 in 14 cases (88% [95% CI 63%-98%]). Patients with Spetzler-Ponce Class A ubAVMs treated by surgery (n = 190) had a risk from surgery of 1.6% (95% CI 0.3%-4.8%) for a permanent neurological deficit leading to an mRS score > 1 and 0.5% (95% CI< 0.1%-3.2%) for a permanent neurological deficit leading to an mRS score > 2. Patients with Spetzler-Ponce Class B ubAVMs treated by surgery (n = 107) had a risk from surgery of 14.0% (95% CI 8.6%-22.0%) for a permanent neurological deficit leading to an mRS score > 1. Sensitivity analysis of Spetzler-Ponce Class B ubAVMs, including those in patients excluded from surgery, showed that the true risk for surgically eligible patients may have been as high as 15.6% (95% CI 9.9%-23.7%) for mRS score > 1, had all patients who were perceived to have a greater risk experienced an adverse outcome. Patients with Spetzler-Ponce Class C ubAVMs treated by surgery (n = 44) had a risk from surgery of 38.6% (95% CI 25.7%-53.4%) for a permanent neurological deficit leading to an mRS score >1. Sensitivity analysis of Class C ubAVMs, including those harbored by patients excluded from surgery, showed that the true risk for surgically eligible patients may have been as high as 60.9% (95% CI 49.2%-71.5%) for mRS score > 1, had all patients who were perceived to have a greater risk experienced an adverse outcome. Conclusion. Surgical outcomes for Spetzler-Ponce Class ubAVMs are better than those for conservative management.