Unholy compromise in the eurozone and how to right it. CEPS Policy Brief No. 277, 16 July 2012

This paper reviews the causes of the ongoing crisis in the eurozone and the policies needed to restore stability in financial markets and reassure a bewildered public. Its main message is that the EU will not overcome the crisis until it has a comprehensive and convincing set of policies in place; able to address simultaneously budgetary discipline and the sovereign debt crisis, the banking crisis, adequate liquidity provision by the ECB and dismal growth. The text updates and expands on his Policy Brief contributed in the run-up to the emergency European Council meeting at the end of June.

Estimating the spatial scales of regionalized variables by nested sampling, hierarchical analysis of variance and residual maximum likelihood

The variogram is essential for local estimation and mapping of any variable by kriging. The variogram itself must usually be estimated from sample data. The sampling density is a compromise between precision and cost, but it must be sufficiently dense to encompass the principal spatial sources of variance. A nested, multi-stage, sampling with separating distances increasing in geometric progression from stage to stage will do that. The data may then be analyzed by a hierarchical analysis of variance to estimate the components of variance for every stage, and hence lag. By accumulating the components starting from the shortest lag one obtains a rough variogram for modest effort. For balanced designs the analysis of variance is optimal; for unbalanced ones, however, these estimators are not necessarily the best, and the analysis by residual maximum likelihood (REML) will usually be preferable. The paper summarizes the underlying theory and illustrates its application with data from three surveys, one in which the design had four stages and was balanced and two implemented with unbalanced designs to economize when there were more stages. A Fortran program is available for the analysis of variance, and code for the REML analysis is listed in the paper. (c) 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A comparison of diatom phosphorus transfer functions and export coefficient models as tools for reconstructing lake nutrient histories

1. We compared the baseline phosphorus (P) concentrations inferred by diatom-P transfer functions and export coefficient models at 62 lakes in Great Britain to assess whether the techniques produce similar estimates of historical nutrient status. 2. There was a strong linear relationship between the two sets of values over the whole total P (TP) gradient (2-200 mu g TP L-1). However, a systematic bias was observed with the diatom model producing the higher values in 46 lakes (of which values differed by more than 10 mu g TP L-1 in 21). The export coefficient model gave the higher values in 10 lakes (of which the values differed by more than 10 mu g TP L-1 in only 4). 3. The difference between baseline and present-day TP concentrations was calculated to compare the extent of eutrophication inferred by the two sets of model output. There was generally poor agreement between the amounts of change estimated by the two approaches. The discrepancy in both the baseline values and the degree of change inferred by the models was greatest in the shallow and more productive sites. 4. Both approaches were applied to two lakes in the English Lake District where long-term P data exist, to assess how well the models track measured P concentrations since approximately 1850. There was good agreement between the pre-enrichment TP concentrations generated by the models. The diatom model paralleled the steeper rise in maximum soluble reactive P (SRP) more closely than the gradual increase in annual mean TP in both lakes. The export coefficient model produced a closer fit to observed annual mean TP concentrations for both sites, tracking the changes in total external nutrient loading. 5. A combined approach is recommended, with the diatom model employed to reflect the nature and timing of the in-lake response to changes in nutrient loading, and the export coefficient model used to establish the origins and extent of changes in the external load and to assess potential reduction in loading under different management scenarios. 6. However, caution must be exercised when applying these models to shallow lakes where the export coefficient model TP estimate will not include internal P loading from lake sediments and where the diatom TP inferences may over-estimate TP concentrations because of the high abundance of benthic taxa, many of which are poor indicators of trophic state.

Ibergirhynchia contraria (F. A. Roemer, 1850), an Early Carboniferous seep-related rhynchonellide brachiopod from the Harz Mountains, Germany - A possible successor to Dzieduszyckia?

A new genus Ibergirhynchia, a member of the rhynchonellide superfamily Dimerelloidea, is described for the species Terebratula contraria Roemer, 1850, from Early Carboniferous deposits of the Harz Mountains, Germany. Ibergirhynchia contraria is from a monospecific brachiopod limestone that formed on top of the drowned Devonian Iberg Reef which persisted as a seamount during Famennian and Early Carboniferous times. Ibergirhynchia contraria is considered a cold seep-related brachiopod based on this locality. Such seep associations have been observed for Mesozoic representatives of the rhynchonellide superfamily Dimerelloidea. Ibergirhynchia is considered the first Paleozoic representative of the family Rhynchonellinidae. Ibergirhynchia resembles Dzieduszyckia externally and may be derived from this dimerelloid.

Access to historic environments for tourists with disabilities: a compromise?

Historic environments, the basis for heritage tourism, are difficult to access for people with disabilities. Many countries have introduced legislation to promote equal rights for people with disabilities. Historic environments, however, enjoy protection under national planning systems which limit the physical access improvements that can be made. The significance of historic environments for tourism in the UK is outlined. Barriers restricting tourists with disabilities accessing historic sites are reviewed from the heritage tourism service provider's viewpoint. Interests of the major stakeholders are considered in terms of the apparent conflict between conservation and access issues as heritage tourism service providers seek to comply with disability discrimination legislation. From a study of access improvements made by major heritage tourism service providers, good practice is identified. However, physical access improvements to enable tourists with disabilities to visit historic environments are a compromise because of the strength of conservation interests. Questions remain as to whether this compromise is acceptable to the tourist with disabilities and whether intellectual access is an acceptable substitute for physical presence.