Tropical climates at the Last Glacial Maximum: a new synthesis of terrestrial palaeoclimate data. I. Vegetation, lake-levels and geochemistry.

Palaeodata in synthesis form are needed as benchmarks for the Palaeoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project (PMIP). Advances since the last synthesis of terrestrial palaeodata from the last glacial maximum (LGM) call for a new evaluation, especially of data from the tropics. Here pollen, plant-macrofossil, lake-level, noble gas (from groundwater) and δ18O (from speleothems) data are compiled for 18±2 ka (14C), 32 °N–33 °S. The reliability of the data was evaluated using explicit criteria and some types of data were re-analysed using consistent methods in order to derive a set of mutually consistent palaeoclimate estimates of mean temperature of the coldest month (MTCO), mean annual temperature (MAT), plant available moisture (PAM) and runoff (P-E). Cold-month temperature (MAT) anomalies from plant data range from −1 to −2 K near sea level in Indonesia and the S Pacific, through −6 to −8 K at many high-elevation sites to −8 to −15 K in S China and the SE USA. MAT anomalies from groundwater or speleothems seem more uniform (−4 to −6 K), but the data are as yet sparse; a clear divergence between MAT and cold-month estimates from the same region is seen only in the SE USA, where cold-air advection is expected to have enhanced cooling in winter. Regression of all cold-month anomalies against site elevation yielded an estimated average cooling of −2.5 to −3 K at modern sea level, increasing to ≈−6 K by 3000 m. However, Neotropical sites showed larger than the average sea-level cooling (−5 to −6 K) and a non-significant elevation effect, whereas W and S Pacific sites showed much less sea-level cooling (−1 K) and a stronger elevation effect. These findings support the inference that tropical sea-surface temperatures (SSTs) were lower than the CLIMAP estimates, but they limit the plausible average tropical sea-surface cooling, and they support the existence of CLIMAP-like geographic patterns in SST anomalies. Trends of PAM and lake levels indicate wet LGM conditions in the W USA, and at the highest elevations, with generally dry conditions elsewhere. These results suggest a colder-than-present ocean surface producing a weaker hydrological cycle, more arid continents, and arguably steeper-than-present terrestrial lapse rates. Such linkages are supported by recent observations on freezing-level height and tropical SSTs; moreover, simulations of “greenhouse” and LGM climates point to several possible feedback processes by which low-level temperature anomalies might be amplified aloft.

Intercomparison of simulated global vegetation distribution in response to 6 kyr BP orbital forcing

The response of ten atmospheric general circulation models to orbital forcing at 6 kyr BP has been investigated using the BIOME model, which predicts equilibrium vegetation distribution, as a diagnostic. Several common features emerge: (a) reduced tropical rain forest as a consequence of increased aridity in the equatorial zone, (b) expansion of moisture-demanding vegetation in the Old World subtropics as a consequence of the expansion of the Afro–Asian monsoon, (c) an increase in warm grass/shrub in the Northern Hemisphere continental interiors in response to warming and enhanced aridity, and (d) a northward shift in the tundra–forest boundary in response to a warmer growing season at high northern latitudes. These broadscale features are consistent from model to model, but there are differences in their expression at a regional scale. Vegetation changes associated with monsoon enhancement and high-latitude summer warming are consistent with palaeoenvironmental observations, but the simulated shifts in vegetation belts are too small in both cases. Vegetation changes due to warmer and more arid conditions in the midcontinents of the Northern Hemisphere are consistent with palaeoenvironmental data from North America, but data from Eurasia suggests conditions were wetter at 6 kyr BP than today. The models show quantitatively similar vegetation changes in the intertropical zone, and in the northern and southern extratropics. The small differences among models in the magnitude of the global vegetation response are not related to differences in global or zonal climate averages, but reflect differences in simulated regional features. Regional-scale analyses will therefore be necessary to identify the underlying causes of such differences among models.

The neolithisation of Liguria (NW Italy): an environmental archaeological and palaeoenvironmental perspective

The archaeological evidence compiled for Liguria has enabled the formulation of a comprehensive model of Neolithic social, technological and economic development (∼7800–5700 cal yrs BP). The model indicates that during the Early and Middle Neolithic (∼7800–6300 cal yrs BP; ‘Impressed Ware’ and ‘Square Mouthed’ pottery cultures) human activity mainly focussed on low (coastal) and mid-altitude areas. By the Late Neolithic (∼6300–5700 cal yrs BP; ‘Chassey’ culture) farming practices were taking place over a wider range of altitudes and involved transhumant pastoralism. Complementary environmental archaeological and palaeoecological records from caves, open-air sites, lakes and mires indicate that human activities had a more significant impact on the environment than previously thought. This included clearance, especially Abies, Ulmus, Fraxinus and Tilia, and woodland utilisation and management (e.g. leaf foddering), as well as cereal cultivation and animal husbandry. The influence of Middle Holocene climatic changes, especially from ∼7800 cal yrs BP, on the direction of vegetation changes and socio-economic developments during the Neolithic remain uncertain.

Postglacial vegetation, fire and climate dynamics at Central Chilean Patagonia (Lake Shaman, 44ºS)

A 19 cal ka BP pollen and charcoal record from Lake Shaman (44°S; 71°W, Chile) was analyzed to establish vegetation, fire and climate dynamics of the forest-steppe ecotone in Central Chilean Patagonia. Lake Shaman record indicates that the upper Río Cisnes valley was free of ice at around 19 cal ka BP. From this date and until 14.8 cal ka BP, a grass steppe with high proportions of shrubs associated to colder and drier conditions than present developed in this area. A continuous increase of Nothofagus accompanied by a decline in the steppe shrubs and sudden dominance of paludal over aquatic plants from 11 cal ka BP was associated to effective moisture increase but still under modern values. The replacement of the cold-dry grass-shrub steppe by a similar-than-present forest-steppe ecotone suggests an increase in temperature indicating the onset of the Holocene. At the same time, moderate fire activity suggested by the charcoal record could be related to major fuel availability as consequence of Nothofagus forest expansion. Between 8 and 3 cal ka BP, the record indicates the easternmost position of the forest-steppe ecotone suggesting the highest effective moisture with the establishment of seasonality between 5 and 3 cal ka BP. From 3 cal ka BP, the record indicates a retraction of the forest-steppe ecotone accompanied by a high pollen record variability and an increased fire activity. These late changes suggest decreased effective moisture associated with a high climatic variability. At regional and extra-regional scale, climatic changes at Lake Shaman's record are mostly associated to changes (latitudinal shifts and/or strengthening/weakening) of past Southern Westerlies that were previously recorded along Patagonia from the Lateglacial to the mid-Holocene. During the Late Holocene, a regional pattern characterized by high record variability emerges throughout Central Chilean Patagonia. This variability would be related to (1) low magnitude Southern Westerlies changes probably associated to ENSO and/or SAM or (2) the complex relationships between vegetation, fire and human occupations during the last 3 cal ka.

Response to comment on “The response of vegetation on the Andean flank in western Amazonia to Pleistocene climate change” – M.L. Cárdenas et al., Science 331, 1055 (25 February 2011)”.

Puyasena et al. question our interpretation of climate-driven vegetation change on the Andean flank in western Amazonia during the middle Pleistocene and suggest that the use of Podocarpus spp. as a proxy of past climate change should be reassessed. We defend our assertion that vegetation change at the Erazo study site was predominantly driven by climate change due to concomitant changes recorded by multiple taxa in the fossil record.

The response of vegetation on the Andean flank in western Amazonia to Pleistocene climate change

A reconstruction of past environmental change from Ecuador reveals the response of lower montane forest on the Andean flank in western Amazonia to glacial-interglacial global climate change. Radiometric dating of volcanic ash indicates that deposition occurred ~324,000 to 193,000 years ago during parts of Marine Isotope Stages 9, 7, and 6. Fossil pollen and wood preserved within organic sediments suggest that the composition of the forest altered radically in response to glacial-interglacial climate change. The presence of Podocarpus macrofossils ~1000 meters below the lower limit of their modern distribution indicates a relative cooling of at least 5°C during glacials and persistence of wet conditions. Interglacial deposits contain thermophilic palms suggesting warm and wet climates. Hence, global temperature change can radically alter vegetation communities and biodiversity in this region.

MODIS-based vegetation index has sufficient sensitivity to indicate stand-level intra-seasonal climatic stress in oak and beech forests

Context: Variation in photosynthetic activity of trees induced by climatic stress can be effectively evaluated using remote sensing data. Although adverse effects of climate on temperate forests have been subjected to increased scrutiny, the suitability of remote sensing imagery for identification of drought stress in such forests has not been explored fully. Aim: To evaluate the sensitivity of MODIS-based vegetation index to heat and drought stress in temperate forests, and explore the differences in stress response of oaks and beech. Methods: We identified 8 oak and 13 beech pure and mature stands, each covering between 4 and 13 MODIS pixels. For each pixel, we extracted a time series of MODIS NDVI from 2000 to 2010. We identified all sequences of continuous unseasonal NDVI decline to be used as the response variable indicative of environmental stress. Neural Networks-based regression modelling was then applied to identify the climatic variables that best explain observed NDVI declines. Results: Tested variables explained 84–97% of the variation in NDVI, whilst air temperature-related climate extremes were found to be the most influential. Beech showed a linear response to the most influential climatic predictors, while oak responded in a unimodal pattern suggesting a better coping mechanism. Conclusions: MODIS NDVI has proved sufficiently sensitive as a stand-level indicator of climatic stress acting upon temperate broadleaf forests, leading to its potential use in predicting drought stress from meteorological observations and improving parameterisation of forest stress indices.

Simulated climate change impact on summer dissolved organic carbon release from peat and surface vegetation: implications for drinking water treatment

Uncertainty regarding changes in dissolved organic carbon (DOC) quantity and quality has created interest in managing peatlands for their ecosystem services such as drinking water provision. The evidence base for such interventions is, however, sometimes contradictory. We performed a laboratory climate manipulation using a factorial design on two dominant peatland vegetation types (Calluna vulgaris and Sphagnum Spp.) and a peat soil collected from a drinking water catchment in Exmoor National Park, UK. Temperature and rainfall were set to represent baseline and future conditions under the UKCP09 2080s high emissions scenario for July and August. DOC leachate then underwent standard water treatment of coagulation/flocculation before chlorination. C. vulgaris leached more DOC than Sphagnum Spp. (7.17 versus 3.00 mg g−1) with higher specific ultraviolet (SUVA) values and a greater sensitivity to climate, leaching more DOC under simulated future conditions. The peat soil leached less DOC (0.37 mg g−1) than the vegetation and was less sensitive to climate. Differences in coagulation removal efficiency between the DOC sources appears to be driven by relative solubilisation of protein-like DOC, observed through the fluorescence peak C/T. Post-coagulation only differences between vegetation types were detected for the regulated disinfection by-products (DBPs), suggesting climate change influence at this scale can be removed via coagulation. Our results suggest current biodiversity restoration programmes to encourage Sphagnum Spp. will result in lower DOC concentrations and SUVA values, particularly with warmer and drier summers.

Geophysical characterization of the complex dynamics of groundwater and seawater exchange in a highly stressed aquifer system linked to a coastal lagoon (SE Spain)

Anthropogenic pressure influences the two-way interactions between shallow aquifers and coastal lagoons. Aquifer overexploitation may lead to seawater intrusion, and aquifer recharge from rainfall plus irrigation may, in turn, increase the groundwater discharge into the lagoon. We analyse the evolution, since the 1950s up to the present, of the interactions between the Campo de Cartagena Quaternary aquifer and the Mar Menor coastal lagoon (SE Spain). This is a very heterogeneous and anisotropic detrital aquifer, where aquifer–lagoon interface has a very irregular geometry. Using electrical resistivity tomography, we clearly identified the freshwater–saltwater transition zone and detected areas affected by seawater intrusion. Severity of the intrusion was spatially variable and significantly related to the density of irrigation wells in 1950s–1960s, suggesting the role of groundwater overexploitation. We distinguish two different mechanisms by which water from the sea invades the land: (a) horizontal advance of the interface due to a wide exploitation area and (b) vertical rise (upconing) caused by local intensive pumping. In general, shallow parts of the geophysical profiles show higher electrical resistivity associated with freshwater mainly coming from irrigation return flows, with water resources mostly from deep confined aquifers and imported from Tagus river, 400 km north. This indicates a likely reversal of the former seawater intrusion process.

Landscape change in central Latvia since the Iron Age: multi-proxy analysis of the vegetation impact of conflict, colonization and economic expansion during the last 2000 years

This study represents the first detailed multi-proxy palaeoenvironmental investigation associated with a Late Iron Age lake-dwelling site in the eastern Baltic. The main objective was to reconstruct the environmental and vegetation dynamics associated with the establishment of the lake-dwelling and land-use during the last 2,000 years. A lacustrine sediment core located adjacent to a Late Iron Age lake-dwelling, medieval castle and Post-medieval manor was sampled in Lake Āraiši. The core was dated using spheroidal fly-ash particles and radiocarbon dating, and analysed in terms of pollen, non-pollen palynomorphs, diatoms, loss-on-ignition, magnetic susceptibility and element geochemistry. Associations between pollen and other proxies were statistically tested. During ad 1–700, the vicinity of Lake Āraiši was covered by forests and human activities were only small-scale with the first appearance of cereal pollen (Triticum and Secale cereale) after ad 400. The most significant changes in vegetation and environment occurred with the establishment of the lake-dwelling around ad 780 when the immediate surroundings of the lake were cleared for agriculture, and within the lake there were increased nutrient levels. The highest accumulation rates of coprophilous fungi coincide with the occupation of the lake-dwelling from ad 780–1050, indicating that parts of the dwelling functioned as byres for livestock. The conquest of tribal lands during the crusades resulted in changes to the ownership, administration and organisation of the land, but our results indicate that the form and type of agriculture and land-use continued much as it had during the preceding Late Iron Age.

Season of birth and sheep husbandry in late Roman and Medieval coastal Flanders: a pilot study using tooth enamel d18O analysis

From the early Roman period, there is archaeological evidence for the exploitation of the Flemish coastal plain (Belgium) for a range of activities, such as sheep herding on the then developing salt-marshes and salt-meadows for the production of wool. During the early Middle Ages, this culminated in the establishment of dedicated ‘sheep estates’. This phase of exploitation was followed by extensive drainage and land reclamation measures in the high Medieval period, transforming areas into grassland, suited for cattle breeding. As part of a larger project investigating the onset, intensification and final decline of sheep management in coastal Flanders in the historical period, this pilot study presents the results of sequential sampling and oxygen isotope analysis of a number of sheep teeth (M2, n = 8) from four late Roman and Medieval sites (dating from 4th to 15th century AD), in order to assess potential variations in season of birth between the different sites and through time. In comparison with published data from herds of known birth season, incremental enamel data from the Flemish sites are consistent with late winter/spring births, with the possibility of some instances of slightly earlier parturition. These findings suggest that manipulation of season of birth was not a feature of the sheep husbandry-based economies of early historic Flanders, further evidencing that wool production was the main purpose of contemporary sheep rearing in the region. Manipulation of season of birth is not likely to have afforded economic advantage in wool-centred economies, unlike in some milk- or meat-based regimes.

Anthropogenic nutrient sources and loads from a Mediterranean catchment into a coastal lagoon: Mar Menor, Spain

The Mar Menor is a coastal lagoon increasingly threatened by urban and agricultural pressures. The main watercourse draining into the lagoon is the Rambla del Albujón. A fortnightly campaign carried out over one annual cycle enabled us to characterize the treated urban sewage effluents and agricultural sources which contribute to the nutrient fluxes in the watercourse. Multivariate analysis provided information for establishing chemical signatures and for assessing the relative influence of the various sources on the water quality at the outlet. Mass balances were used to examine net gains and losses, and cross-correlations with rainfall to analyze climatic influence and control factors in the trends of the nutrient flux. The rainfall pattern was significantly cross-correlated with nitrate and phosphorus fluxes from agricultural sources, while fluctuations in the resident population explained the phosphorus flux trend in urban sources. 50% of dissolved inorganic nitrogen was from agricultural sources, while 70% of total phosphate and 91% of total organic carbon were from urban point sources. The net amounts of all the nutrients fell as a result of plant uptake and/or denitrification in the channel. The control of urban point sources (phosphorus-enriched) is suggested as a promptly action for improving the health of the coastal lagoon.