Incidence trends for childhood type 1 diabetes in Europe during 1989-2003 and predicted new cases 2005-20: a multicentre prospective registration study

Background: The incidence of type 1 diabetes in children younger than 15 years is increasing. Prediction of future incidence of this disease will enable adequate fund allocation for delivery of care to be planned. We aimed to establish 15-year incidence trends for childhood type 1 diabetes in European centres, and thereby predict the future burden of childhood diabetes in Europe.
Methods: 20 population-based EURODIAB registers in 17 countries registered 29 311 new cases of type 1 diabetes, diagnosed in children before their 15th birthday during a 15-year period, 1989–2003. Age-specific log linear rates of increase were estimated in five geographical regions, and used in conjunction with published incidence rates and population projections to predict numbers of new cases throughout Europe in 2005, 2010, 2015, and 2020.
Findings: Ascertainment was better than 90% in most registers. All but two registers showed significant yearly increases in incidence, ranging from 0·6% to 9·3%. The overall annual increase was 3·9% (95% CI 3·6–4·2), and the increases in the age groups 0–4 years, 5–9 years, and 10–14 years were 5·4% (4·8–6·1), 4·3% (3·8–4·8), and 2·9% (2·5–3·3), respectively. The number of new cases in Europe in 2005, is estimated as 15 000, divided between the 0–4 year, 5–9 year, and 10–14 year age-groups in the ratio 24%, 35%, and 41%, respectively. In 2020, the predicted number of new cases is 24 000, with a doubling in numbers in children younger than 5 years and a more even distribution across age-groups than at present (29%, 37%, and 34%, respectively). Prevalence under age 15 years is predicted to rise from 94 000 in 2005, to 160 000 in 2020.
Interpretation: If present trends continue, doubling of new cases of type 1 diabetes in European children younger than 5 years is predicted between 2005 and 2020, and prevalent cases younger than 15 years will rise by 70%. Adequate health-care resources to meet these children’s needs should be made available.

Worldwide childhood type 1 diabetes incidence - what can we learn from epidemiology?

Type 1 diabetes is the most common form of diabetes in most part of the world, although reliable data are still unavailable in several countries. Wide variations exist between the incidence rates of different populations, incidence is lowest in China and Venezuela (0.1 per 100 000 per year) and highest in Finland and Sardinia (37 per 100 000 per year). In most populations girls and boys are equally affected. In general, the incidence increases with age, the incidence peak is at puberty. After the pubertal years, the incidence rate significantly drops in young women, but remains relatively high in young adult males up to the age 29-35 years. Prospective national and large international registries (DIAMOND and EURODIAB) demonstrated an increasing trend in incidence in most regions of the world over the last few decades and increases seem to be the highest in the youngest age group. Analytical epidemiological studies have identified environmental risk factors operating early in life which might have contributed to the increasing trend in incidence. These include enteroviral infections in pregnant women, older maternal age (39-42 years), preeclampsia, cesarean section delivery, increased birthweight, early introduction of cow's milk proteins and an increased rate of postnatal growth (weight and height). Optimal vitamin D supplementation during early life has been shown to be protective. Some of these environmental risk factors such as viruses may initiate autoimmunity toward the beta cell, other exposures may put on overload on the already affected beta cell and thus accelerate the disease process.

Association of serum AACT levels and AACT signal polymorphism with late-onset Alzheimer's disease in Northern Ireland

alpha 1-antichymotrypsin (AACT) is a serine protease inhibitor that has been associated with amyloid plaques in the brains of patients with Alzheimer's disease (AD). It has been reported that AACT serum levels are higher in AD patients than in age and sex matched controls. In addition, polymorphisms in the signal peptide and 5' of the AACT gene have been reported to increase the risk of developing AD, Serum AACT has also been suggested to be associated with cognitive decline in elderly subjects. Our objective was to investigate whether a relationship existed between serum AACT levels, AACT genotypes and risk for AD in a case control association study using 108 clinically well defined late onset AD cases and 108 age and sex matched controls from Northern Ireland. We also wished to determine whether higher serum AACT affected levels of cognition as had been previously reported. Serum AACT levels were found to bet significantly raised in cases compared to controls (t = 3.8, df = 209, p

Carriage of apoE epsilon 4 lowers the age of onset of Alzheimer's Disease in Northern Ireland

Alzheimer's disease is the most common neurodegenerative disorder affecting those in mid to late adult life. Carriage of an apolipoprotein E (apoE) epsilon 4 allele has been shown to be associated with an increased risk of developing AD in numerous studies involving populations of various races and ethnic backgrounds. It has also been suggested that carriage of this allele reduces the age of onset of AD. To investigate this, we carried out a genetic association study utilising 108 sporadic late-onset AD patients and age, sex and ethnically-matched controls from Northern Ireland. Findings of this study verified the risk of AD associated with carriage of the apoE epsilon 4 allele in a dose-dependent manner (p

Infections and vaccinations as risk factors for childhood type I (insulin-dependent) diabetes mellitus: a multicentre case-control investigation.

AIMS/HYPOTHESIS: To determine if vaccinations and infections are associated with the subsequent risk of Type I (insulin-dependent) diabetes mellitus in childhood. METHOD: Seven centres in Europe with access to population-based registers of children with Type I diabetes diagnosed under 15 years of age participated in a case-control study of environmental risk factors. Control children were chosen at random in each centre either from population registers or from schools and policlinics. Data on maternal and neonatal infections, common childhood infections and vaccinations were obtained for 900 cases and 2302 control children from hospital and clinic records and from parental responses to a questionnaire or interview. RESULTS: Infections early in the child's life noted in the hospital record were found to be associated with an increased risk of diabetes, although the odds ratio of 1.61 (95% confidence limits 1.11, 2.33) was significant only after adjustment for confounding variables. None of the common childhood infectious diseases was found to be associated with diabetes and neither was there evidence that any common childhood vaccination modified the risk of diabetes. Pre-school day-care attendance, a proxy measure for total infectious disease exposure in early childhood, was found, however, to be inversely associated with diabetes, with a pooled odds ratio of 0.59 (95% confidence limits 0.46, 0.76) after adjustment for confounding variables. CONCLUSION/INTERPRETATION: It seems likely that the explanation for these contrasting findings of an increased risk associated with perinatal infections coupled with a protective effect of pre-school day care lies in the age-dependent modifying influence of infections on the developing immune system.

Butyrylcholinesterase K variant is genetically associated with late onset Alzheimer's disease in Northern Ireland

Alzheimer's disease (AD) is a progressive neurodegenerative disorder that has been associated, sometimes controversially, with polymorphisms in a number of genes. Recently the butyrylcholinesterase K variant (BCHE K) allele has been shown to act in synergy with the apolipoprotein E epsilon4 (APOE epsilon4) allele to promote risk for AD. Most subsequent replicative studies have been unable to confirm these findings. We have conducted a case-control association study using a clinically well defined group of late onset AD patients (n=175) and age and sex matched control subjects (n=187) from the relatively genetically homogeneous Northern Ireland population to test this association. The BCHE genotypes of patients were found to be significantly different from controls (chi(2)=23.68, df=2, p