846 resultados para C53 - Forecasting and Other Model Applications


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OBJECTIVE: To analyze the lesions diagnosed in victims of falls, comparing them with those diagnosed in other mechanisms of blunt trauma.METHODS: We conducted a retrospective study of trauma protocol charts (prospectively collected) from 2008 to 2010, including victims of trauma over 13 years of age admitted to the emergency room. The severity of injuries was stratified by the Abbreviated Injury Scale (AIS) and Injury Severity Score (ISS). Variables were compared between the group of victims of falls from height (Group 1) and the other victims of blunt trauma (Group 2). We used the Student t, chi-square and Fisher tests for comparison between groups, considering the value of p <0.05 as significant.RESULTS: The series comprised 4,532 cases of blunt trauma, of which 555 (12.2%) were victims of falls from height. Severe lesions (AISe"3) were observed in the extremities (17.5%), in the cephalic segment (8.4%), chest (5.5%) and the abdomen (2.9%). Victims of Group 1 had significantly higher mean age, AIS in extremities / pelvis, AIS in the thoracic segment and ISS (p <0.05). The group 1 had significantly (p <0.05) higher incidence of tracheal intubation on admission, pneumothorax, hemothorax, rib fractures, chest drainage, spinal trauma, pelvic fractures, complex pelvic fractures and fractures to the upper limbs.CONCLUSION: Victims of fall from height had greater anatomic injury severity, greater frequency and severity of lesions in the thoracic segment and extremities.

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OBJECTIVE:to identify predictors of death in blunt trauma patients sustaining pelvic fractures and, posteriorly, compare them to a previously reported series from the same center.METHOD: Retrospective analysis of trauma registry data, including blunt trauma patients older than 14 y.o. sustaining pelvic fractures admitted from 2008 to 2010. Patients were assigned into group 1 (dead) or 2 (survivors). We used Student's t, qui square and Fisher's tests for statistical analysis, considering p<0.05 as significant. Posteriorly, we compared predictors of death between both periods.RESULTS: Seventy-nine cases were included. Mean RTS, ISS and TRISS were, respectively, 6.44 + 2.22, 28.0 + 15.2 e 0.74 + 0.33. Nineteen patients died (24,0%). Main cause of death was hemorrhage (42,1%). Group 1 was characterized by (p<0.05) lower systolic blood pressure and Glasgow coma scale means on admission, higher heart rate, head AIS, extremity AIS and ISS means, as well as, higher frequency of severe head injuries and complex pelvic fractures. Comparing both periods, we notice that the anatomic and physiologic severity of injury increased (RTS and ISS means). Furthermore, there was a decrease in the impact of associated thoracic and abdominal injuries on the prognosis and an association of lethality with the presence of complex pelvic fractures.CONCLUSION: There were significant changes in the predictors of death between these two periods. The impact of thoracic and abdominal associated injures decreased while the importance of severe retroperitoneal hemorrhage increased. There was also an increase in trauma severity, which accounted for high lethality.

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ABSTRACTObjective:to compare the frequency and the severity of diagnosed injuries between pedestrians struck by motor vehicles and victims of other blunt trauma mechanisms.Methods:retrospective analysis of data from the Trauma Registry, including adult blunt trauma patients admitted from 2008 to 2010. We reviewed the mechanism of trauma, vital signs on admission and the injuries identified. Severity stratification was carried using RTS, AIS-90, ISS e TRISS. Patients were assigned into group A (pedestrians struck by motor vehicle) or B (victims of other mechanisms of blunt trauma). Variables were compared between groups. We considered p<0.05 as significant.Results:a total of 5785 cases were included, and 1217 (21,0%) of which were in group A. Pedestrians struck by vehicles presented (p<0.05) higher mean age, mean heart rate upon admission, mean ISS and mean AIS in head, thorax, abdomen and extremities, as well as lower mean Glasgow coma scale, arterial blood pressure upon admission, RTS and TRISS. They also had a higher frequency of epidural hematomas, subdural hematomas, subarachnoid hemorrhage, brain swelling, cerebral contusions, costal fractures, pneumothorax, flail chest, pulmonary contusions, as well as pelvic, superior limbs and inferior limbs fractures.Conclusion:pedestrian struck by vehicles sustained intracranial, thoracic, abdominal and extremity injuries more frequently than victims of other blunt trauma mechanism as a group. They also presented worse physiologic and anatomic severity of the trauma.

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In this work mathematical programming models for structural and operational optimisation of energy systems are developed and applied to a selection of energy technology problems. The studied cases are taken from industrial processes and from large regional energy distribution systems. The models are based on Mixed Integer Linear Programming (MILP), Mixed Integer Non-Linear Programming (MINLP) and on a hybrid approach of a combination of Non-Linear Programming (NLP) and Genetic Algorithms (GA). The optimisation of the structure and operation of energy systems in urban regions is treated in the work. Firstly, distributed energy systems (DES) with different energy conversion units and annual variations of consumer heating and electricity demands are considered. Secondly, district cooling systems (DCS) with cooling demands for a large number of consumers are studied, with respect to a long term planning perspective regarding to given predictions of the consumer cooling demand development in a region. The work comprises also the development of applications for heat recovery systems (HRS), where paper machine dryer section HRS is taken as an illustrative example. The heat sources in these systems are moist air streams. Models are developed for different types of equipment price functions. The approach is based on partitioning of the overall temperature range of the system into a number of temperature intervals in order to take into account the strong nonlinearities due to condensation in the heat recovery exchangers. The influence of parameter variations on the solutions of heat recovery systems is analysed firstly by varying cost factors and secondly by varying process parameters. Point-optimal solutions by a fixed parameter approach are compared to robust solutions with given parameter variation ranges. In the work enhanced utilisation of excess heat in heat recovery systems with impingement drying, electricity generation with low grade excess heat and the use of absorption heat transformers to elevate a stream temperature above the excess heat temperature are also studied.

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This paper reports the occurrence and epidemiology of outbreaks of foot rot and other foot diseases in goats and sheep in the semiarid region of Paraíba, northeastern Brazil. Four farms were inspected for the presence of foot lesion in sheep and goats and for environmental conditions, general hygiene, pastures, and disease control measures. The prevalence of foot lesions was 19.41% (170/876) in sheep and 17.99% (52/289) in goats, ranging between 5.77% and 33.85% in different farms. Foot rot was the most common disease, affecting 12.1% of the animals examined (141/1165), but with significantly higher (p<0.05) prevalence in sheep (13.69%) than in goats (7.27%). The frequency of malignant foot rot was also significantly lower (p<0.05) in goats (9.53%) than in the sheep (40.83%). On one farm, Dorper sheep showed significantly higher (p<0.05) prevalence of foot rot (17.5%) than Santa Inês sheep (6.79%), and the number of digits affected was also higher in the former. Dichelobacter nodosus and Fusobacterium necrophorum were isolated from cases of foot rot. White line disease was found in 3.95% of the animals, sole ulcers in 1.29%, foot abscess in 1.03% and hoof overgrowth in 0.5%. The high rainfall at the time of occurrence, grazing in wetlands, clay soils with poor drainage, presence of numerous stony grounds, closure of the flocks in pens at night, and introduction of affected animals were considered predisposing factors for the occurrence of foot diseases.

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Bullying can be viewed as goal-oriented behavior in the strive for dominance and prestige in the peer group (Salmivalli, 2010). To ensure the effectiveness of their power demonstrations, bullies often choose targets from among their vulnerable peers (Salmivalli, 2010; Veenstra et al., 2007). A large number of studies have also shown that victimization has severe consequences for the victims’ psychosocial adjustment (Reijntjes, Kamphuis, Prinzie, & Telch, 2010; Ttofi, Farrington, Lösel, & Loeber, 2011). In this thesis I investigate – based on three empirical studies – whether similar dynamics on the risk factors and consequences apply to same- and other-sex victimization. In the empirical studies, we used the data from the randomized control trial of the KiVa antibullying program for the elementary school grades 4–6 (2007–2008), and for the middle school grades 7–9 (2008–2009). We measured same- and other-sex victimization, and victims’ defending relationships by dyadic questions: “By which classmates are you victimized?” and “By which classmates are you supported, comforted, or defended?” In addition, we used self-reports and peer reports to measure adjustment and social status. The findings imply that other-sex victimization may be challenging for antibullying work. First, although targets of bullying seemed to be selected from among vulnerable peers for the most part, perceived popularity increased the risks of other-sex victimization. Popularity of these victims may falsely lead to an impression that the victims are doing well. Second, the consequences considering victims’ later psychosocial adjustment were alarming concerning girls bullied by boys. Thus, despite the fact that the targets may be perceived as popular, other-sex victimization can have even more severe consequences than same-sex victimization. Third, we found that defending relationships were mostly same-sex relationships, and consequently, we may ask whether defending is effective against other-sex bullies. Finally, the KiVa antibullying program was less effective against other-sex victimization in the adolescent sample. The findings altogether emphasize the importance of taking into account the sex composition of the bully-victim dyad, both considering future research on bullying and in the antibullying work with children and adolescents.

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This doctoral thesis was published in printed form in 1987. It was digitized from paper copy in 2013. Unfortunately on some pages the digitizaion process has not been complete, i.e there are some minor typographic erros on some pages.

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Kristiina Hormia-Poutasen esitys KOBV-konferenssissa Berliinissä, Saksassa kesäkuussa 2013.

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State-of-the-art predictions of atmospheric states rely on large-scale numerical models of chaotic systems. This dissertation studies numerical methods for state and parameter estimation in such systems. The motivation comes from weather and climate models and a methodological perspective is adopted. The dissertation comprises three sections: state estimation, parameter estimation and chemical data assimilation with real atmospheric satellite data. In the state estimation part of this dissertation, a new filtering technique based on a combination of ensemble and variational Kalman filtering approaches, is presented, experimented and discussed. This new filter is developed for large-scale Kalman filtering applications. In the parameter estimation part, three different techniques for parameter estimation in chaotic systems are considered. The methods are studied using the parameterized Lorenz 95 system, which is a benchmark model for data assimilation. In addition, a dilemma related to the uniqueness of weather and climate model closure parameters is discussed. In the data-oriented part of this dissertation, data from the Global Ozone Monitoring by Occultation of Stars (GOMOS) satellite instrument are considered and an alternative algorithm to retrieve atmospheric parameters from the measurements is presented. The validation study presents first global comparisons between two unique satellite-borne datasets of vertical profiles of nitrogen trioxide (NO3), retrieved using GOMOS and Stratospheric Aerosol and Gas Experiment III (SAGE III) satellite instruments. The GOMOS NO3 observations are also considered in a chemical state estimation study in order to retrieve stratospheric temperature profiles. The main result of this dissertation is the consideration of likelihood calculations via Kalman filtering outputs. The concept has previously been used together with stochastic differential equations and in time series analysis. In this work, the concept is applied to chaotic dynamical systems and used together with Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods for statistical analysis. In particular, this methodology is advocated for use in numerical weather prediction (NWP) and climate model applications. In addition, the concept is shown to be useful in estimating the filter-specific parameters related, e.g., to model error covariance matrix parameters.

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During the period from 1992 to 1997, interactions of several organisms and Ficus eximia figs, a monoecious species, were studied in plants located in Campinas/SP and Londrina/PR (Brazil). Ficus eximia is pollinated by a single fig wasp species, Pegoscapus sp. (Hymenoptera: Agaonidae, Agaoninae), but also visited by other 14 non-pollinating wasps (Agaonidae, Eurytomidae, Torymidae). Mites (Tarsonemidae), nematodes (Diplogasteridae) and fungi which use the body of the pollinating fig wasp to disperse themselves were also observed.

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An energy model of a belt conveyor was designed. Operation of a belt conveyor was researched. Operational indexes were calculated. Energy optimization process and recommendations were presented.

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This thesis focuses on flavonoids, a subgroup of phenolic compounds produced by plants, and how they affect the herbivorous larvae of lepidopterans and sawflies. The first part of the literature review examines different techniques to analyze the chemical structures of flavonoids and their concentrations in biological samples. These techniques include, for example, ultraviolet-visible spectroscopy, mass spectrometry, and nuclear magnetic resonance spectroscopy. The second part of the literature review studies how phenolic compounds function in the metabolism of larvae. The harmful oxidation reactions of phenolic compounds in insect guts are also emphasized. In addition to the negative effects, many insect species have evolved the use of phenolic compounds for their own benefit. In the experimental part of the thesis, high concentrations of complex flavonoid oligoglycosides were found in the hemolymph (the circulatory fluid of insects) of birch and pine sawflies. The larvae produced these compounds from simple flavonoid precursors present in the birch leaves and pine needles. Flavonoid glycosides were also found in the cocoon walls of sawflies, which suggested that flavonoids were used in the construction of cocoons. The second part of the experimental work studied the modifications of phenolic compounds in conditions that mimicked the alkaline guts of lepidopteran larvae. It was found that the 24 plant species studied and their individual phenolic compounds had variable capacities to function as oxidative defenses in alkaline conditions. The excrements of lepidopteran and sawfly species were studied to see how different types of phenolics were processed by the larvae. These results suggested that phenolic compounds were oxidized, hydrolyzed, or modified in other ways during their passage through the digestive tract of the larvae.

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Mother-pup interaction, as well as other behavioral reactions were studied during the lactation period in 24 litters of Wistar rats and their dams fed either a 16% (control - C; 12 litters) or a 6% (malnourished - M; 12 litters) protein diet. The diets were isocaloric. Throughout lactation there was a 36.4% weight loss of M dams and a 63% body weight deficit in the M pups when compared to control pups. During this period, half of the litters were exposed daily to additional tactile stimulation (CS or MS), while the other half were submitted to normal rearing conditions (CN or MN). The tactile stimulation of pups (handling) consisted of holding the animal in one hand and gently touching the dorsal part of the animal's body with the fingers for 3 min. A special camera and a time-lapse video were used to record litter behavior in their home cages. Starting at 6 p.m. and ending at 6 a.m., on days 3, 6, 12, 15, 18 and 21 of lactation, photos were taken at 4-s intervals. An increase in the frequency (154.88 ± 16.19) and duration (455.86 ± 18.05 min) of suckling was observed throughout the lactation period in all groups compared to birth day (frequency 24.88 ± 2.37 and duration 376.76 ± 21.01 min), but the frequency was higher in the C (84.96 ± 8.52) than in the M group (43.13 ± 4.37); however, the M group (470.2 ± 11.87 min) spent more time suckling as compared with the C group (393.67 ± 13.09 min). The M dams showed a decreased frequency of resting position throughout the lactation period (6.5 ± 2.48) compared to birth day (25.42 ± 7.74). Pups from the C group were more frequently observed separated (73.02 ± 4.38) and interacting (258.99 ± 20.61) more with their mothers than the M pups (separated 66.94 ± 5.5 and interacting 165.72 ± 12.05). Tactile stimulation did not interact with diet condition, showing that the kind of stimulation used in the present study did not lead to recovery from the changes induced by protein malnutrition. The changes in mother-pup interaction produced by protein malnutrition of both may represent retardation in neuromotor development and a higher dependence of the pups on their mothers. These changes may represent an important means of energy saving and heat maintenance in malnourished pups.