Simulation von Koexistenzszenarien für die Automation mit SEAMCAT an einem Anwendungsbeispiel

Diese Arbeit beschäftigt sich mit Koexistenzaussagen von Funktechnologien. Dafür wurden verschiedene Simulationstools auf ihre Eignung untersucht. Einen besonderen Schwerpunkt nimmt das Tool SEAMCAT ein. In der Arbeit wurde ein Modell ausgearbeitet, das für die Simulation mit SEAMCAT geeignet ist. Ergebnisse wurden mit Messungen verglichen, die das ifak Magdeburg für das System erstellt haben. Empfehlungen und Ausblicke für Funktechnologien in der Automation wurden abschließend benannt.

Sensitivity of simulation results to competing SAM updates

Recently there has been a renewed research interest in the properties of non survey updates of input-output tables and social accounting matrices (SAM). Along with the venerable and well known scaling RAS method, several alternative new procedures related to entropy minimization and other metrics have been suggested, tested and used in the literature. Whether these procedures will eventually substitute or merely complement the RAS approach is still an open question without a definite answer. The performance of many of the updating procedures has been tested using some kind of proximity or closeness measure to a reference input-output table or SAM. The first goal of this paper, in contrast, is the proposal of checking the operational performance of updating mechanisms by way of comparing the simulation results that ensue from adopting alternative databases for calibration of a reference applied general equilibrium model. The second goal is to introduce a new updatin! g procedure based on information retrieval principles. This new procedure is then compared as far as performance is concerned to two well-known updating approaches: RAS and cross-entropy. The rationale for the suggested cross validation is that the driving force for having more up to date databases is to be able to conduct more current, and hopefully more credible, policy analyses.

The Benefits of building barrier-free: a contingent valuation of accessibilty as an attribute of housing

Estimating the social benefits of barrier-free building has always required indirect solutions, such as calculating the savings in social services, hospitalisation or adaptations made possible by the increase in accessibility. This research uses the Contingent Valuation Method to gain a direct appraisal of the benefits from barrier-free housing. When comparing two similar dwellings, with the only difference being their accessibility conditions, the 1,007 randomly chosen households that answered the direct survey would pay, on average 12.5 per cent more for being barrier-free. None of the different appraisals made on accessibility costs reaches 5 per cent. This confirms the social profitability of building without barriers and shows the potential size of the private market for those housing developers that meet the demand. Accessibility is a general concern, an economic good or attribute that most households value, irrespective of the physical conditions of their members.

The influence of building materials on the residual action of BHC

Residual insecticide activity of BHC vapors from various building materials in controlled humidity chambers in the laboratory were significantly different. Laboratory-reared, first instar nymphs of Dipetalogaster maximus were exposed to vapors of BHC which were being released from the treated surfaces of building materials taken from Mambaí, Goiás.

Ab initio modeling and molecular dynamics simulation of the alpha 1b-adrenergic receptor activation.

This work describes the ab initio procedure employed to build an activation model for the alpha 1b-adrenergic receptor (alpha 1b-AR). The first version of the model was progressively modified and complicated by means of a many-step iterative procedure characterized by the employment of experimental validations of the model in each upgrading step. A combined simulated (molecular dynamics) and experimental mutagenesis approach was used to determine the structural and dynamic features characterizing the inactive and active states of alpha 1b-AR. The latest version of the model has been successfully challenged with respect to its ability to interpret and predict the functional properties of a large number of mutants. The iterative approach employed to describe alpha 1b-AR activation in terms of molecular structure and dynamics allows further complications of the model to allow prediction and interpretation of an ever-increasing number of experimental data.

Hydrogeophysical data integration at larger scales: Application of Bayesian sequential simulation for the characterization of heterogeneous alluvial aquifers

Knowledge of the spatial distribution of hydraulic conductivity (K) within an aquifer is critical for reliable predictions of solute transport and the development of effective groundwater management and/or remediation strategies. While core analyses and hydraulic logging can provide highly detailed information, such information is inherently localized around boreholes that tend to be sparsely distributed throughout the aquifer volume. Conversely, larger-scale hydraulic experiments like pumping and tracer tests provide relatively low-resolution estimates of K in the investigated subsurface region. As a result, traditional hydrogeological measurement techniques contain a gap in terms of spatial resolution and coverage, and they are often alone inadequate for characterizing heterogeneous aquifers. Geophysical methods have the potential to bridge this gap. The recent increased interest in the application of geophysical methods to hydrogeological problems is clearly evidenced by the formation and rapid growth of the domain of hydrogeophysics over the past decade (e.g., Rubin and Hubbard, 2005).

Effort, reward and self-reported mental health: a simulation study on negative affectivity bias.

Background : In the present article, we propose an alternative method for dealing with negative affectivity (NA) biases in research, while investigating the association between a deleterious psychosocial environment at work and poor mental health. First, we investigated how strong NA must be to cause an observed correlation between the independent and dependent variables. Second, we subjectively assessed whether NA can have a large enough impact on a large enough number of subjects to invalidate the observed correlations between dependent and independent variables.Methods : We simulated 10,000 populations of 300 subjects each, using the marginal distribution of workers in an actual population that had answered the Siegrist's questionnaire on effort and reward imbalance (ERI) and the General Health Questionnaire (GHQ).Results : The results of the present study suggested that simulated NA has a minimal effect on the mean scores for effort and reward. However, the correlations between the effort and reward imbalance (ERI) ratio and the GHQ score might be important, even in simulated populations with a limited NA.Conclusions : When investigating the relationship between the ERI ratio and the GHQ score, we suggest the following rules for the interpretation of the results: correlations with an explained variance of 5% and below should be considered with caution; correlations with an explained variance between 5% and 10% may result from NA, although this effect does not seem likely; and correlations with an explained variance of 10% and above are not likely to be the result of NA biases. [Authors]

Microsatellites can be misleading: an empirical and simulation study.

It has been long recognized that highly polymorphic genetic markers can lead to underestimation of divergence between populations when migration is low. Microsatellite loci, which are characterized by extremely high mutation rates, are particularly likely to be affected. Here, we report genetic differentiation estimates in a contact zone between two chromosome races of the common shrew (Sorex araneus), based on 10 autosomal microsatellites, a newly developed Y-chromosome microsatellite, and mitochondrial DNA. These results are compared to previous data on proteins and karyotypes. Estimates of genetic differentiation based on F- and R-statistics are much lower for autosomal microsatellites than for all other genetic markers. We show by simulations that this discrepancy stems mainly from the high mutation rate of microsatellite markers for F-statistics and from deviations from a single-step mutation model for R-statistics. The sex-linked genetic markers show that all gene exchange between races is mediated by females. The absence of male-mediated gene flow most likely results from male hybrid sterility.

The Impact of Population Ageing on House Prices: A Micro-simulation Approach

This paper attempts to estimate the impact of population ageing on house prices. There is considerable debate about whether population ageing puts downwards or upwards pressure on house prices. The empirical approach differs from earlier studies of this relationship, which are mainly regression analyses of macro time-series data. A micro-simulation methodology is adopted that combines a macro-level house price model with a micro-level household formation model. The case study is Scotland, a country that is expected to age rapidly in the future. The parameters of the household formation model are estimated with panel data from the British Household Panel Survey covering the period 1999-2008. The estimates are then used to carry out a set of simulations. The simulations are based on a set of population projections that represent a considerable range in the rate of population ageing. The main finding from the simulations is that population ageing—or more generally changes in age structure—is not likely a main determinant of house prices, at least in Scotland.

Saving and Re-building Lives: an Analysis of the Determinants of Disaster Relief

We analyse both theoretically and empirically, the factors that influence the amount of humanitarian aid which countries receive when they are struck by natural disasters. Our investigation particularly distinguishes between immediate disaster relief which helps the survival of victims and long term humanitarian aid given towards reconstruction and rehabilitation. The theoretical model is able to make predictions as well as explain some of the peculiarities in the empirical results. The empirical analysis, making use of some useful data sources, show that both short and long term humanitarian aid increase with number of people killed, financial loss and level of corruption, while GDP per capita has no effect. Number of people affected had no effect on short term aid, but significantly increased long term aid. Both types of aid increased if the natural disaster was an earthquake, tsunami or drought. In addition, short term aid increases in response to a flood while long term aid increases in response to storms.

Simulation-based systematic review of imatinib population pharmacokinetics and PK-PD relationships in chronic myeloid leukemia (CML) patients

Objectives: Several population pharmacokinetic (PPK) and pharmacokinetic-pharmacodynamic (PK-PD) analyses have been performed with the anticancer drug imatinib. Inspired by the approach of meta-analysis, we aimed to compare and combine results from published studies in a useful way - in particular for improving the clinical interpretation of imatinib concentration measurements in the scope of therapeutic drug monitoring (TDM). Methods: Original PPK analyses and PK-PD studies (PK surrogate: trough concentration Cmin; PD outcomes: optimal early response and specific adverse events) were searched systematically on MEDLINE. From each identified PPK model, a predicted concentration distribution under standard dosage was derived through 1000 simulations (NONMEM), after standardizing model parameters to common covariates. A "reference range" was calculated from pooled simulated concentrations in a semi-quantitative approach (without specific weighting) over the whole dosing interval. Meta-regression summarized relationships between Cmin and optimal/suboptimal early treatment response. Results: 9 PPK models and 6 relevant PK-PD reports in CML patients were identified. Model-based predicted median Cmin ranged from 555 to 1388 ng/ml (grand median: 870 ng/ml and inter-quartile range: 520-1390 ng/ml). The probability to achieve optimal early response was predicted to increase from 60 to 85% from 520 to 1390 ng/ml across PK-PD studies (odds ratio for doubling Cmin: 2.7). Reporting of specific adverse events was too heterogeneous to perform a regression analysis. The general frequency of anemia, rash and fluid retention increased however consistently with Cmin, but less than response probability. Conclusions: Predicted drug exposure may differ substantially between various PPK analyses. In this review, heterogeneity was mainly attributed to 2 "outlying" models. The established reference range seems to cover the range where both good efficacy and acceptable tolerance are expected for most patients. TDM guided dose adjustment appears therefore justified for imatinib in CML patients. Its usefulness remains now to be prospectively validated in a randomized trial.

Projecte d'energia solar tèrmica

El proyecto consiste en el diseño de una instalación solar térmica para producción de agua caliente sanitaria (ACS) en un edificio de nueva construcción en la localidad de Mollerussa (Lleida). Se han estudiado las necesidades térmicas de ACS en atención a las características constructivas y funcionales del edificio, dando cumplimiento a la normativa vigente. Conocida la demanda energética esperada, se han analizado los datos climatológicos y de temperatura de red de agua fría propios del emplazamiento, y se ha propuesto un campo de captación compuesto por captadores planos y los distintos subconjuntos que componen la instalación: acumulación, transferencia térmica, trazado hidráulico, regulación y control, y energía auxiliar. Con ello se ha llevado a cabo una simulación energética mediante la herramienta TSOL, software de simulación solar recomendado por entidades de reconocido prestigio, para comprobar que se han alcanzado los objetivos del sistema propuesto. Por último, se ha realizado un estudio del beneficio medioambiental que supone la instalación proyectada, indicando el ahorro energético para el usuario y las toneladas equivalentes de dióxido de carbono evitadas.

Agent based simulation to optimise emergency departments

Nowadays, many of the health care systems are large and complex environments and quite dynamic, specifically Emergency Departments, EDs. It is opened and working 24 hours per day throughout the year with limited resources, whereas it is overcrowded. Thus, is mandatory to simulate EDs to improve qualitatively and quantitatively their performance. This improvement can be achieved modelling and simulating EDs using Agent-Based Model, ABM and optimising many different staff scenarios. This work optimises the staff configuration of an ED. In order to do optimisation, objective functions to minimise or maximise have to be set. One of those objective functions is to find the best or optimum staff configuration that minimise patient waiting time. The staff configuration comprises: doctors, triage nurses, and admissions, the amount and sort of them. Staff configuration is a combinatorial problem, that can take a lot of time to be solved. HPC is used to run the experiments, and encouraging results were obtained. However, even with the basic ED used in this work the search space is very large, thus, when the problem size increases, it is going to need more resources of processing in order to obtain results in an acceptable time.