Quantifying and modeling ecosystem services provided by urban greening in cities of the Southern Alps, N Italy

Population growth in urban areas is a world-wide phenomenon. According to a recent United Nations report, over half of the world now lives in cities. Numerous health and environmental issues arise from this unprecedented urbanization. Recent studies have demonstrated the effectiveness of urban green spaces and the role they play in improving both the aesthetics and the quality of life of its residents. In particular, urban green spaces provide ecosystem services such as: urban air quality improvement by removing pollutants that can cause serious health problems, carbon storage, carbon sequestration and climate regulation through shading and evapotranspiration. Furthermore, epidemiological studies with controlled age, sex, marital and socio-economic status, have provided evidence of a positive relationship between green space and the life expectancy of senior citizens. However, there is little information on the role of public green spaces in mid-sized cities in northern Italy. To address this need, a study was conducted to assess the ecosystem services of urban green spaces in the city of Bolzano, South Tyrol, Italy. In particular, we quantified the cooling effect of urban trees and the hourly amount of pollution removed by the urban forest. The information was gathered using field data collected through local hourly air pollution readings, tree inventory and simulation models. During the study we quantified pollution removal for ozone, nitrogen dioxide, carbon monoxide and particulate matter (<10 microns). We estimated the above ground carbon stored and annually sequestered by the urban forest. Results have been compared to transportation CO2 emissions to determine the CO2 offset potential of urban streetscapes. Furthermore, we assessed commonly used methods for estimating carbon stored and sequestered by urban trees in the city of Bolzano. We also quantified ecosystem disservices such as hourly urban forest volatile organic compound emissions.

Automotive diesel engine transient operation: modeling, optimization and control

Traditionally, the study of internal combustion engines operation has focused on the steady-state performance. However, the daily driving schedule of automotive engines is inherently related to unsteady conditions. There are various operating conditions experienced by (diesel) engines that can be classified as transient. Besides the variation of the engine operating point, in terms of engine speed and torque, also the warm up phase can be considered as a transient condition. Chapter 2 has to do with this thermal transient condition; more precisely the main issue is the performance of a Selective Catalytic Reduction (SCR) system during cold start and warm up phases of the engine. The proposal of the underlying work is to investigate and identify optimal exhaust line heating strategies, to provide a fast activation of the catalytic reactions on SCR. Chapters 3 and 4 focus the attention on the dynamic behavior of the engine, when considering typical driving conditions. The common approach to dynamic optimization involves the solution of a single optimal-control problem. However, this approach requires the availability of models that are valid throughout the whole engine operating range and actuator ranges. In addition, the result of the optimization is meaningful only if the model is very accurate. Chapter 3 proposes a methodology to circumvent those demanding requirements: an iteration between transient measurements to refine a purpose-built model and a dynamic optimization which is constrained to the model validity region. Moreover all numerical methods required to implement this procedure are presented. Chapter 4 proposes an approach to derive a transient feedforward control system in an automated way. It relies on optimal control theory to solve a dynamic optimization problem for fast transients. From the optimal solutions, the relevant information is extracted and stored in maps spanned by the engine speed and the torque gradient.

Earthquake forecasting and seismic hazard analysis: some insights on the testing phase and the modeling

This thesis is divided in three chapters. In the first chapter we analyse the results of the world forecasting experiment run by the Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability (CSEP). We take the opportunity of this experiment to contribute to the definition of a more robust and reliable statistical procedure to evaluate earthquake forecasting models. We first present the models and the target earthquakes to be forecast. Then we explain the consistency and comparison tests that are used in CSEP experiments to evaluate the performance of the models. Introducing a methodology to create ensemble forecasting models, we show that models, when properly combined, are almost always better performing that any single model. In the second chapter we discuss in depth one of the basic features of PSHA: the declustering of the seismicity rates. We first introduce the Cornell-McGuire method for PSHA and we present the different motivations that stand behind the need of declustering seismic catalogs. Using a theorem of the modern probability (Le Cam's theorem) we show that the declustering is not necessary to obtain a Poissonian behaviour of the exceedances that is usually considered fundamental to transform exceedance rates in exceedance probabilities in the PSHA framework. We present a method to correct PSHA for declustering, building a more realistic PSHA. In the last chapter we explore the methods that are commonly used to take into account the epistemic uncertainty in PSHA. The most widely used method is the logic tree that stands at the basis of the most advanced seismic hazard maps. We illustrate the probabilistic structure of the logic tree, and then we show that this structure is not adequate to describe the epistemic uncertainty. We then propose a new probabilistic framework based on the ensemble modelling that properly accounts for epistemic uncertainties in PSHA.

Die Kristallstruktur zweier Atmungsproteine: das Hämoglobin des Meerschweinchens und das 24-mere Hämocyanin des Kaiserskorpions

Im Verlauf der vorgestellten Arbeit konnten die Kristallstrukturen zweier Atmungsproteine gelöst werden. Da diese Strukturen mit verschiedenen Auflösungen gelöst wurden, wurden für die beiden Modelle unterschiedliche Methoden verwendet.rnrnDie Kristalle des Hämoglobins des Meerschweinchens Cavia porcellus erlaubten eine Messung von Streureflexen bis zu einer Auflösung von 1.7 Ǻ. Damit konnten das Molecular Replacement und das folgende Refinement mit geringen Vorgaben durchgeführt werden.rnAnhand der ermittelten Struktur konnte gezeigt werden, dass die Höhenadaptation des Hämoglobins des Meerschweinchens auf einer Stabilisierung des R2-Zustandes und einer gleichzeitigen Destabilisierung des T-Zustandes beruht. Die zu Grunde liegenden Aminosäureaustausche konnten identifiziert und der resultierende Mechanismus postuliert werden. Die Durchführung von Mutagenese-Experimenten am Hämoglobin des Meerschweinchens könnte die vorgestellte Hypothese bestätigen.rnrnDie Kristallstruktur des 24-meren Hämocyanins aus Pandinus imperator konnte durch eine Kombination von Röntgenkristallographie und Homologiemodellierung mit einer Auflösung von 6.5 Ǻ gelöst werden. Allerdings wäre die Bestimmung der Phasen durch Molecular Replacement ohne die vor kurzem publizierte Kryo-EM Struktur nicht möglich gewesen [Cong et al., 2009].rnDamit ist es durch die Kombination verschiedener Methoden erstmalig gelungen die Struktur eines Hämocyanins dieser Größe (Mw = 1.7 MDa) zu lösen. Die Auflösung von 6.5 Ǻ, eine für die Kristallographie relativ geringe Auflösung, erlaubte die Bestimmung des Cα-Traces des Proteins mit hoher Genauigkeit.rnDurch die Kristallstruktur konnte das zu Grunde liegende Kryo-EM Modell aus [Cong et al., 2009] bestätigt werden. Insbesondere die Position der α-Helices konnte mittels Kristallographie mit einer höheren Genauigkeit bestimmt werden. Durch die Verwendung von OMIT-Maps wurde sichergestellt, dass die Struktur nicht "kopiert" wurde. Die Übereinstimmung ist deshalb auf die Struktur des Hämocyanins im gemessenen Kristall zurückzuführen, nicht auf einen Bias bei der Auswertung.rnAnhand der Kristallstruktur konnten für die Kooperativität im Trimer potentiell entscheidende Aminosäuren identifiziert werden. Diese Aminosäuren könnten im Vergleich zur bekannten trimeren Struktur aus Limulus polyphemus zur Ausbildung zusätzlicher Bindungen zwischen den Untereinheiten führen. Diese Bindungen könnten eine wichtige Rolle beim Konformationsübergang zwischen dem T- und R-Zustand spielen.rn

The effect of two-dimensional squat elements on the seismic behavior of building structures

This thesis reports a study on the seismic response of two-dimensional squat elements and their effect on the behavior of building structures. Part A is devoted to the study of unreinforced masonry infills, while part B is focused on reinforced concrete sandwich walls. Part A begins with a comprehensive review of modelling techniques and code provisions for infilled frame structures. Then state-of-the practice techniques are applied for a real case to test the ability of actual modeling techniques to reproduce observed behaviors. The first developments towards a seismic-resistant masonry infill system are presented. Preliminary design recommendations for the seismic design of the seismic-resistant masonry infill are finally provided. Part B is focused on the seismic behavior of a specific reinforced concrete sandwich panel system. First, the results of in-plane psuudostatic cyclic tests are described. Refinements to the conventional modified compression field theory are introduced in order to better simulate the monotonic envelope of the cyclic response. The refinements deal with the constitutive model for the shotcrete in tension and the embedded bars. Then the hysteretic response of the panels is studied according to a continuum damage model. Damage state limits are identified. Design recommendations for the seismic design of the studied reinforced concrete sandwich walls are finally provided.

Modellazione edilizia e simulazione energetica per le analisi delle prestazioni e la progettazione integrata delle cantine aziendali

Il presente studio si colloca nell’ambito di una ricerca il cui obiettivo è la formulazione di criteri progettuali finalizzati alla ottimizzazione delle prestazioni energetiche delle cantine di aziende vitivinicole con dimensioni produttive medio-piccole. Nello specifico la ricerca si pone l’obiettivo di individuare degli indicatori che possano valutare l’influenza che le principali variabili progettuali hanno sul fabbisogno energetico dell’edificio e sull’andamento delle temperature all’interno dei locali di conservazione ed invecchiamento del vino. Tali indicatori forniscono informazioni sulla prestazione energetica dell’edificio e sull’idoneità dei locali non climatizzati finalizzata alla conservazione del vino Essendo la progettazione una complessa attività multidisciplinare, la ricerca ha previsto l’ideazione di un programma di calcolo in grado di gestire ed elaborare dati provenienti da diversi ambiti (ingegneristici, architettonici, delle produzioni agroindustriali, ecc.), e di restituire risultati sintetici attraverso indicatori allo scopo individuati. Il programma è stato applicato su un caso-studio aziendale rappresentativo del settore produttivo. Sono stati vagliati gli effetti di due modalità di vendemmia e di quattro soluzioni architettoniche differenti. Le soluzioni edilizie derivano dalla combinazione di diversi isolamenti termici e dalla presenza o meno di locali interrati. Per le analisi sul caso-studio ci si è avvalsi di simulazioni energetiche in regime dinamico, supportate e validate da campagne di monitoraggio termico e meteorologico all’interno dell’azienda oggetto di studio. I risultati ottenuti hanno evidenziato come il programma di calcolo concepito nell’ambito di questo studio individui le criticità dell’edificio in termini energetici e di “benessere termico” del vino e consenta una iterativa revisione delle variabili progettuale indagate. Esso quindi risulta essere uno strumento informatizzato di valutazione a supporto della progettazione, finalizzato ad una ottimizzazione del processo progettuale in grado di coniugare, in maniera integrata, gli obiettivi della qualità del prodotto, della efficienza produttiva e della sostenibilità economica ed ambientale.

Motor control system in Parkinson’s disease: a modeling approach

Parkinson’s disease is a neurodegenerative disorder due to the death of the dopaminergic neurons of the substantia nigra of the basal ganglia. The process that leads to these neural alterations is still unknown. Parkinson’s disease affects most of all the motor sphere, with a wide array of impairment such as bradykinesia, akinesia, tremor, postural instability and singular phenomena such as freezing of gait. Moreover, in the last few years the fact that the degeneration in the basal ganglia circuitry induces not only motor but also cognitive alterations, not necessarily implicating dementia, and that dopamine loss induces also further implications due to dopamine-driven synaptic plasticity got more attention. At the present moment, no neuroprotective treatment is available, and even if dopamine-replacement therapies as well as electrical deep brain stimulation are able to improve the life conditions of the patients, they often present side effects on the long term, and cannot recover the neural loss, which instead continues to advance. In the present thesis both motor and cognitive aspects of Parkinson’s disease and basal ganglia circuitry were investigated, at first focusing on Parkinson’s disease sensory and balance issues by means of a new instrumented method based on inertial sensor to provide further information about postural control and postural strategies used to attain balance, then applying this newly developed approach to assess balance control in mild and severe patients, both ON and OFF levodopa replacement. Given the inability of levodopa to recover balance issues and the new physiological findings than underline the importance in Parkinson’s disease of non-dopaminergic neurotransmitters, it was therefore developed an original computational model focusing on acetylcholine, the most promising neurotransmitter according to physiology, and its role in synaptic plasticity. The rationale of this thesis is that a multidisciplinary approach could gain insight into Parkinson’s disease features still unresolved.

Learning from experience: Analysis of the civil litigation regarding building structures on the court of bologna in the years 2011/2012

The present work is aimed to the study and the analysis of the defects detected in the civil structure and that are object of civil litigation in order to create an instruments capable of helping the different actor involved in the building process. It is divided in three main sections. The first part is focused on the collection of the data related to the civil proceeding of the 2012 and the development of in depth analysis of the main aspects regarding the defects on existing buildings. The research center “Osservatorio Claudio Ceccoli” developed a system for the collection of the information coming from the civil proceedings of the Court of Bologna. Statistical analysis are been performed and the results are been shown and discussed in the first chapters.The second part analyzes the main issues emerged during the study of the real cases, related to the activities of the technical consultant. The idea is to create documents, called “focus”, addressed to clarify and codify specific problems in order to develop guidelines that help the technician editing of the technical advice.The third part is centered on the estimation of the methods used for the collection of data. The first results show that these are not efficient. The critical analysis of the database, the result and the experience and throughout, allowed the implementation of the collection system for the data.

Stochastic modeling of bacterial protein domains distribution to predict horizontal gene transfer

In questo elaborato, abbiamo tentato di modellizzare i processi che regolano la presenza dei domini proteici. I domini proteici studiati in questa tesi sono stati ottenuti dai genomi batterici disponibili nei data base pubblici (principalmente dal National Centre for Biotechnology Information: NCBI) tramite una procedura di simulazione computazionale. Ci siamo concentrati su organismi batterici in quanto in essi la presenza di geni trasmessi orizzontalmente, ossia che parte del materiale genetico non provenga dai genitori, e assodato che sia presente in una maggiore percentuale rispetto agli organismi più evoluti. Il modello usato si basa sui processi stocastici di nascita e morte, con l'aggiunta di un parametro di migrazione, usato anche nella descrizione dell'abbondanza relativa delle specie in ambito delle biodiversità ecologiche. Le relazioni tra i parametri, calcolati come migliori stime di una distribuzione binomiale negativa rinormalizzata e adattata agli istogrammi sperimentali, ci induce ad ipotizzare che le famiglie batteriche caratterizzate da un basso valore numerico del parametro di immigrazione abbiano contrastato questo deficit con un elevato valore del tasso di nascita. Al contrario, ipotizziamo che le famiglie con un tasso di nascita relativamente basso si siano adattate, e in conseguenza, mostrano un elevato valore del parametro di migrazione. Inoltre riteniamo che il parametro di migrazione sia direttamente proporzionale alla quantità di trasferimento genico orizzontale effettuato dalla famiglia batterica.

An integrated system for building and running reproducible research

Our generation of computational scientists is living in an exciting time: not only do we get to pioneer important algorithms and computations, we also get to set standards on how computational research should be conducted and published. From Euclid’s reasoning and Galileo’s experiments, it took hundreds of years for the theoretical and experimental branches of science to develop standards for publication and peer review. Computational science, rightly regarded as the third branch, can walk the same road much faster. The success and credibility of science are anchored in the willingness of scientists to expose their ideas and results to independent testing and replication by other scientists. This requires the complete and open exchange of data, procedures and materials. The idea of a “replication by other scientists” in reference to computations is more commonly known as “reproducible research”. In this context the journal “EAI Endorsed Transactions on Performance & Modeling, Simulation, Experimentation and Complex Systems” had the exciting and original idea to make the scientist able to submit simultaneously the article and the computation materials (software, data, etc..) which has been used to produce the contents of the article. The goal of this procedure is to allow the scientific community to verify the content of the paper, reproducing it in the platform independently from the OS chosen, confirm or invalidate it and especially allow its reuse to reproduce new results. This procedure is therefore not helpful if there is no minimum methodological support. In fact, the raw data sets and the software are difficult to exploit without the logic that guided their use or their production. This led us to think that in addition to the data sets and the software, an additional element must be provided: the workflow that relies all of them.

Bayesian Hidden Markov Modeling of Array CGH Data

Genomic alterations have been linked to the development and progression of cancer. The technique of Comparative Genomic Hybridization (CGH) yields data consisting of fluorescence intensity ratios of test and reference DNA samples. The intensity ratios provide information about the number of copies in DNA. Practical issues such as the contamination of tumor cells in tissue specimens and normalization errors necessitate the use of statistics for learning about the genomic alterations from array-CGH data. As increasing amounts of array CGH data become available, there is a growing need for automated algorithms for characterizing genomic profiles. Specifically, there is a need for algorithms that can identify gains and losses in the number of copies based on statistical considerations, rather than merely detect trends in the data. We adopt a Bayesian approach, relying on the hidden Markov model to account for the inherent dependence in the intensity ratios. Posterior inferences are made about gains and losses in copy number. Localized amplifications (associated with oncogene mutations) and deletions (associated with mutations of tumor suppressors) are identified using posterior probabilities. Global trends such as extended regions of altered copy number are detected. Since the posterior distribution is analytically intractable, we implement a Metropolis-within-Gibbs algorithm for efficient simulation-based inference. Publicly available data on pancreatic adenocarcinoma, glioblastoma multiforme and breast cancer are analyzed, and comparisons are made with some widely-used algorithms to illustrate the reliability and success of the technique.

Copper and human health: biochemistry, genetics, and strategies for modeling dose-response relationships

Copper (Cu) and its alloys are used extensively in domestic and industrial applications. Cu is also an essential element in mammalian nutrition. Since both copper deficiency and copper excess produce adverse health effects, the dose-response curve is U-shaped, although the precise form has not yet been well characterized. Many animal and human studies were conducted on copper to provide a rich database from which data suitable for modeling the dose-response relationship for copper may be extracted. Possible dose-response modeling strategies are considered in this review, including those based on the benchmark dose and categorical regression. The usefulness of biologically based dose-response modeling techniques in understanding copper toxicity was difficult to assess at this time since the mechanisms underlying copper-induced toxicity have yet to be fully elucidated. A dose-response modeling strategy for copper toxicity was proposed associated with both deficiency and excess. This modeling strategy was applied to multiple studies of copper-induced toxicity, standardized with respect to severity of adverse health outcomes and selected on the basis of criteria reflecting the quality and relevance of individual studies. The use of a comprehensive database on copper-induced toxicity is essential for dose-response modeling since there is insufficient information in any single study to adequately characterize copper dose-response relationships. The dose-response modeling strategy envisioned here is designed to determine whether the existing toxicity data for copper excess or deficiency may be effectively utilized in defining the limits of the homeostatic range in humans and other species. By considering alternative techniques for determining a point of departure and low-dose extrapolation (including categorical regression, the benchmark dose, and identification of observed no-effect levels) this strategy will identify which techniques are most suitable for this purpose. This analysis also serves to identify areas in which additional data are needed to better define the characteristics of dose-response relationships for copper-induced toxicity in relation to excess or deficiency.

Correspondence establishment in statistical modeling of shapes with arbitrary topology

Correspondence establishment is a key step in statistical shape model building. There are several automated methods for solving this problem in 3D, but they usually can only handle objects with simple topology, like that of a sphere or a disc. We propose an extension to correspondence establishment over a population based on the optimization of the minimal description length function, allowing considering objects with arbitrary topology. Instead of using a fixed structure of kernel placement on a sphere for the systematic manipulation of point landmark positions, we rely on an adaptive, hierarchical organization of surface patches. This hierarchy can be built on surfaces of arbitrary topology and the resulting patches are used as a basis for a consistent, multi-scale modification of the surfaces' parameterization, based on point distribution models. The feasibility of the approach is demonstrated on synthetic models with different topologies.

Molecular modeling of EPON 862-DETDA polymer

EPON 862 is an epoxy resin which is cured with the hardening agent DETDA to form a crosslinked epoxy polymer and is used as a component in modern aircraft structures. These crosslinked polymers are often exposed to prolonged periods of temperatures below glass transition range which cause physical aging to occur. Because physical aging can compromise the performance of epoxies and their composites and because experimental techniques cannot provide all of the necessary physical insight that is needed to fully understand physical aging, efficient computational approaches to predict the effects of physical aging on thermo-mechanical properties are needed. In this study, Molecular Dynamics and Molecular Minimization simulations are being used to establish well-equilibrated, validated molecular models of the EPON 862-DETDA epoxy system with a range of crosslink densities using a united-atom force field. These simulations are subsequently used to predict the glass transition temperature, thermal expansion coefficients, and elastic properties of each of the crosslinked systems for validation of the modeling techniques. The results indicate that glass transition temperature and elastic properties increase with increasing levels of crosslink density and the thermal expansion coefficient decreases with crosslink density, both above and below the glass transition temperature. The results also indicate that there may be an upper limit to crosslink density that can be realistically achieved in epoxy systems. After evaluation of the thermo-mechanical properties, a method is developed to efficiently establish molecular models of epoxy resins that represent the corresponding real molecular structure at specific aging times. Although this approach does not model the physical aging process, it is useful in establishing a molecular model that resembles the physically-aged state for further use in predicting thermo-mechanical properties as a function of aging time. An equation has been predicted based on the results which directly correlate aging time to aged volume of the molecular model. This equation can be helpful for modelers who want to study properties of epoxy resins at different levels of aging but have little information about volume shrinkage occurring during physical aging.