IDENTIFICAÇÃO DE SURPRESAS MONETÁRIAS E SEUS IMPACTOS SOBRE A ESTRUTURA A TERMO DA TAXA DE JUROS

A reação dos mercados às alterações na taxa básica de juros é relevante para toda a economia. O entendimento da relação entre a política monetária e as taxas de juros é de extrema importância, uma vez que surpresas monetárias, ou seja, os erros de previsão do mercado a respeito das alterações da meta da Taxa Selic, podem afetar as taxas de juros de diferentes maturidades ou vencimentos, impactando diretamente a Administração Financeira. O objetivo deste estudo foi analisar a variação da Estrutura a Termo da Taxa de Juros (ETTJ) quando verificadas surpresas monetárias na ocasião da decisão do Comitê de Política Monetária (Copom) a respeito da meta da Taxa Selic. Para isso, foi desenvolvido um estudo descritivo quantitativo, que considerou as 88 reuniões ordinárias do Copom realizadas no período de janeiro de 2004 a dezembro de 2013. As surpresas monetárias foram identificadas através de duas formas distintas. Na primeira forma foram consideradas as taxas do contrato de DI1 referente ao último negócio realizado no pregão da data da reunião do Copom, e a taxa do primeiro negócio realizado no pregão seguinte. Desta maneira foram identificadas 11 surpresas monetárias. Na segunda forma foram consideradas as taxas médias verificadas nos mesmos contratos e ocasiões citados anteriormente, sendo assim identificadas 10 surpresas monetárias. Já para a análise da relação entre as variações da ETTJ e as surpresas monetárias foram considerados os vencimentos de 2, 3, 6, 9, 12, 15, 18 e 24 meses. Como resultado foi possível observar que as surpresas monetárias e as variações na ETTJ são diretamente proporcionais, movendo-se na mesma direção, para as duas formas distintas de surpresas monetárias identificadas neste estudo. Além disso, foi empregada nas análises a questão da unanimidade na decisão do Copom, com o objetivo testar o seu conteúdo informacional, e observou-se como resultado uma menor variação da ETTJ em ocasiões em que a decisão do Copom foi unânime. Em resumo, entende-se que os resultados encontrados no presente estudo estão em linha aos apresentados por outros autores, sendo possível comprovar a correlação existente entre as variações da ETTJ e as surpresas monetárias, bem como verificar que a magnitude das variações diminui ao longo da ETTJ, fato este que pode ser relacionado à transparência da política monetária nacional e à experiência na vigência do sistema de metas para a inflação.

News framing in different language versions of state-sponsored international media : A case of Russian and English versions in RT and Radio Liberty

The current paper examines the dissimilarities that have occurred in news framing by state-sponsored news outlets in their different language versions. The comparative framing analysis is conducted on the news coverage of the Russian intervention in Syria (2016) in RT and Radio Liberty in Russian and English languages. The certain discrepancies in framing of this event are found in both news outlets. The strongest distinction between Russian and English versions occurred in framing of responsibility and humanitarian crisis in Syria. The study attempts to explain the identified differences in a framework of public diplomacy and propaganda studies. The existing theories explain that political ideology and foreign policy orientation influences principles of state propaganda and state-sponsored international broadcasting. However, the current findings suggest that other influence factors may exist in the field – such as the local news discourse and the journalistic principles. This conclusion is preliminary, as there are not many studies with the comparable research design, which could support the current discussion. The studies of localized strategies of the international media (whether private networks or state-funded channels) can refine the current conclusions and bring a new perspective to global media studies.

South Africa and the global game:football, apartheid and beyond

Firmly situating South African teams, players, and associations in the international framework in which they have to compete, South Africa and the Global Game: Football, Apartheid, and Beyond presents an interdisciplinary analysis of how and why South Africa underwent a remarkable transformation from a pariah in world sport to the first African host of a World Cup in 2010. Written by an eminent team of scholars, this special issue and book aims to examine the importance of football in South African society, revealing how the black oppression transformed a colonial game into a force for political, cultural and social liberation. It explores how the hosting of the 2010 World Cup aims to enhance the prestige of the post-apartheid nation, to generate economic growth and stimulate Pan-African pride. Among the themes dealt with are race and racism, class and gender dynamics, social identities, mass media and culture, and globalization. This collection of original and insightful essays will appeal to specialists in African Studies, Cultural Studies, and Sport Studies, as well as to non-specialist readers seeking to inform themselves ahead of the 2010 World Cup. This book was published as a special issue of Soccer and Society. 1. Introduction Peter Alegi and Chris Bolsmann Part 1: Past is Prologue – History of Football in South Africa 2. Football as Code: The Social Diffusion of ‘Soccer’ in South Africa Lloyd Hill 3. White Football in South Africa: Empire, Apartheid and Change, 1892 – 1977 Chris Bolsmann 4. A Biography of Darius Dhlomo: Transnational Footballer in the Era of Apartheid Peter Alegi 5. Women and Gender in South African Soccer Cynthia Fabrizio Pelak Part 2: Football Culture after Apartheid: Local and Transnational Dynamics 6. "You Must Support Chiefs: Pirates Already Have Two White Fans!" Race and Racial Discourse in South African Football Fandom Marc Fletcher 7. "It wasn’t that I did not like South African Football": Media, History, and Biography Sean Jacobs 8. Soccer in a Rugby Town: Restructuring Football in Stellenbosch Sylvain Cubizolles 9. Differing Trajectories: Football Development and Patterns of Player Migration in South Africa and Ghana Paul Darby and Eirik Solberg Part 3: The 2010 World Cup: Challenges and Opportunities 10. Football's Tsars: Proprietorship, Corporatism and Politics in the 2010 FIFA World Cup Scarlett Cornelissen 11. Sports as Cultural Diplomacy: The 2010 FIFA World Cup in South Africa’s Foreign Policy Sifiso Mxolisi Ndlovu 12. World Cup 2010: Africa’s Turn or the Turn on Africa? Ashwin Desai and Goolam Vahed 13. The 2010 FIFA World Cup: Critical Voices From Below Percy Ngonyama.

The UK obesity epidemic:new steering instruments for a new public policy problematic?

Since the 1980s UK government enthusiasm for market reforms has reconfigured the nature and scope of public services. Initially the marketisation of public services changed how public services were provided, increasingly market reforms and pro business policies have also modified the formation and understanding of public policy problematics and how they ought to be resolved. This is particularly noticeable when markets work imperfectly or even fail. UK governments have shown their reluctance to employ regulatory instruments to change the behaviour of companies preferring instead to make use of softer interventions, by focusing on providing advice for consumers and urging individuals to act responsibly. The dilemmas of this approach are explored by discussing the UK's former Labour government's (1997–2010) response to the increase in the incidence of obesity and related health complications.

Lions and roses: An interpretive history of Israeli-Iranian relations

This multi-disciplinary research project explores the religious and cultural foundations within the "master commemorative narratives" that frame Israeli and Iranian political discourse. In articulating their grievances against one another, Israeli and Iranian leaders express the tensions between religion, nationalism, and modernity in their own societies. The theoretical and methodological approach of this dissertation is constructivist-interpretivist. The concept of "master commemorative narratives" is adapted from Yael Zerubavel's study of ritualized remembrance in Israeli political culture, and applied to both Israeli and Iranian foreign policy. Israel’s master commemorative narrative draws heavily upon the language of the Hebrew Bible, situating foreign policy discourse within a paradigm of covenantal patrimony, exile, and return, despite the unrelenting hostility of eternal enemies and "the nations." Iran’s master commemorative narrative expresses Iranian suspicion of foreign encroachment and interference, and of the internal corruption that they engender, sacralizing resistance to the forces of evil in the figurative language and myths of pre-Islamic tradition and of Shi'a Islam. Using a constructivist-interpretive methodological approach, this research offers a unique interpretive analysis of the parallels between these narratives, where they intersect, and where they come into conflict. It highlights both the broad appeal and the diverse challenges to the components of these "master" narratives within Israeli and Iranian politics and society. The conclusion of this study explains the ways in which the recognition of religious and cultural conflicts through the optic of master commemorative narratives can complement the perspectives of other theoretical approaches and challenge the conventions of Security Studies. It also suggests some of the potential practical applications of this research in devising more effective international diplomacy.

Soft power as the new norm: How the Chinese-Russian strategic partnership (soft) balances American hegemony in an era of unipolarity

This study explores how great powers not allied with the United States formulate their grand strategies in a unipolar international system. Specifically, it analyzes the strategies China and Russia have developed to deal with U.S. hegemony by examining how Moscow and Beijing have responded to American intervention in Central Asia. The study argues that China and Russia have adopted a soft balancing strategy of to indirectly balance the United States at the regional level. This strategy uses normative capabilities such as soft power, alternative institutions and regionalization to offset the overwhelming material hardware of the hegemon. The theoretical and methodological approach of this dissertation is neoclassical realism. Chinese and Russian balancing efforts against the United States are based on their domestic dynamics as well as systemic constraints. Neoclassical realism provides a bridge between the internal characteristics of states and the environment which those states are situated. Because China and Russia do not have the hardware (military or economic power) to directly challenge the United States, they must resort to their software (soft power and norms) to indirectly counter American preferences and set the agenda to obtain their own interests. Neoclassical realism maintains that soft power is an extension of hard power and a reflection of the internal makeup of states. The dissertation uses the heuristic case study method to demonstrate the efficacy of soft balancing. Such case studies help to facilitate theory construction and are not necessarily the demonstrable final say on how states behave under given contexts. Nevertheless, it finds that China and Russia have increased their soft power to counterbalance the United States in certain regions of the world, Central Asia in particular. The conclusion explains how soft balancing can be integrated into the overall balance-of-power framework to explain Chinese and Russian responses to U.S. hegemony. It also suggests that an analysis of norms and soft power should be integrated into the study of grand strategy, including both foreign policy and military doctrine.

Framing infectious diseases and U.S. public opinion

The United States has been increasingly concerned with the transnational threat posed by infectious diseases. Effective policy implementation to contain the spread of these diseases requires active engagement and support of the American public. To influence American public opinion and enlist support for related domestic and foreign policies, both domestic agencies and international organizations have framed infectious diseases as security threats, human rights disasters, economic risks, and as medical dangers. This study investigates whether American attitudes and opinions about infectious diseases are influenced by how the issue is framed. It also asks which issue frame has been most influential in shaping public opinion about global infectious diseases when people are exposed to multiple frames. The impact of media frames on public perception of infectious diseases is examined through content analysis of newspaper reports. Stories on SARS, avian flu, and HIV/AIDS were sampled from coverage in The New York Times and The Washington Post between 1999 and 2007. Surveys of public opinion on infectious diseases in the same time period were also drawn from databases like Health Poll Search and iPoll. Statistical analysis tests the relationship between media framing of diseases and changes in public opinion. Results indicate that no one frame was persuasive across all diseases. The economic frame had a significant effect on public opinion about SARS, as did the biomedical frame in the case of avian flu. Both the security and human rights frames affected opinion and increased public support for policies intended to prevent or treat HIV/AIDS. The findings also address the debate on the role and importance of domestic public opinion as a factor in domestic and foreign policy decisions of governments in an increasingly interconnected world. The public is able to make reasonable evaluations of the frames and the domestic and foreign policy issues emphasized in the frames.

The Re-Emergence of Suriname’s Désiré (Desi) Bouterse: Political Acumen and Geopolitical Anxiety

This study examines some concerns that derive from Suriname‘s May-July 2010 elections, which resulted in the re-emergence of erstwhile military ruler and convicted drug trafficker, Désiré (Desi) Bouterse, as President of the Republic. The victory reflects Bouterse‘s political acumen in aggregating disparate political interests and in establishing a viable coalition government. But because of his history and profile, this triumph has generated anxiety in some places internationally. In this respect, the study examines anxieties related to three matters: (a) relations with Guyana, where there is an existing territorial dispute and a recently resolved maritime dispute, (b) illegal drug trafficking operations, and (c) foreign policy engagement with Venezuela. There has been a flurry of bilateral activities—including several presidential summits—with Guyana since President Bouterse‘s inauguration, albeit seemingly more about symbolism than substance. Although the maritime dispute was settled by a Tribunal of the United Nations Convention of the Law of the Sea in 2007, the 15,000 km2 New River Triangle is still unresolved. Indeed, in June 2011 President Bouterse reasserted Suriname‘s claim to the Triangle. Suriname has upped the ante in that dispute by portraying internationally the map of Suriname as inclusive of the disputed area. In all likelihood that self-redefinition slowly will become the country‘s cartographic definition in the eyes of the world if Guyana does not successfully rebuff that move or pursue the definitive settlement of the dispute. A geonarcotics assessment shows Suriname to be still heavily implicated in trafficking, because of geography, law enforcement limitations, corruption, and other factors. But despite Bouterse‘s drug-related history and that of former senior military officers, several reasons suggest the inexpediency of a narco-state being created by Bouterse. As well, as part of Suriname‘s pursuit of increased Caribbean and South American engagement, it has boosted relations with Venezuela, which has included it in PetroCaribe and provided housing and agricultural aid. However, the engagement appears to be driven more by pragmatism and less by any ideological affinity with Hugo Chavez.

Two Decades Out of the Whirlpool: Past (and Possible Future) United States Interventions in Latin America [Student's Paper Series]

This paper examines the history of U.S. interventions in Latin America and attempts to explain their frequency by highlighting two factors – besides security and economic interests – that have made American interventions in Latin America so common. First, immense differences in size and influence between the United States and the States of Latin America have made interventions appear to be a low risk solution to crises that threaten American interests in the region. Second, when U.S government concerns and aspirations for Latin America converge with the general fears and aspirations of American foreign policy, interventions become much more likely. Such a convergence pushes Latin American issues high up the U.S. foreign policy agenda because of the region’s proximity to the United States and the perception that costs of intervening are low. The leads proponents of intervention to begin asking questions like “if we cannot stop communism/revolutions/drug-trafficking in Latin America, where can we stop it?” This article traces how these factors influenced the decision to intervene in Latin America during the era of Dollar Diplomacy and during the Cold War. It concludes with three possible scenarios that could lead to a reemergence of an American interventionist policy in Latin America. It makes the argument that even though the United Sates has not intervened in Latin America during the twenty-two years, it is far from clear that American interventions in Latin America will be consigned to the past.

The discursive construction of Japanese identity and its haunting others

This dissertation examined the formation of Japanese identity politics after World War II. Since World War II, Japan has had to deal with a contradictory image of its national self. On the one hand, as a nation responsible for colonizing fellow Asian countries in the 1930s and 1940s, Japan has struggled with an image/identity as a regional aggressor. On the other hand, having faced the harsh realities of defeat after the war, Japan has seen itself depicted as a victim. By employing the technique of discourse analysis as a way to study identity formation through official foreign policy documents and news media narratives, this study reconceptualized Japanese foreign policy as a set of discursive practices that attempt to produce renewed images of Japan's national self. The dissertation employed case studies to analyze two key sites of Japanese postwar identity formation: (1) the case of Okinawa, an island/territory integral to postwar relations between Japan and the United States and marked by a series of US military rapes of native Okinawan girls; and (2) the case of comfort women in Japan and East Asia, which has led to Japan being blamed for its wartime sexual enslavement of Asian women. These case studies found that it was through coping with the haunting ghost of its wartime past that Japan sought to produce "postwar Japan" as an identity distinct from "wartime imperial Japan" or from "defeated, emasculated Japan" and, thus, hoped to emerge as a "reborn" moral and pacifist nation. The research showed that Japan struggled to invent a new self in a way that mobilized gendered dichotomies and, furthermore, created "others" who were not just spatially located (the United States, Asian neighboring nations) but also temporally marked ("old Japan"). The dissertation concluded that Japanese foreign policy is an ongoing struggle to define the Japanese national self vis-à-vis both spatial and historical "others," and that, consequently, postwar Japan has always been haunted by its past self, no matter how much Japan's foreign policy discourses were trying to make this past self into a distant or forgotten other.

Frameworks for Systemic and Structural Analysis of Financial Innovations in Infrastructure

Financial innovations have emerged globally to close the gap between the rising global demand for infrastructures and the availability of financing sources offered by traditional financing mechanisms such as fuel taxation, tax-exempt bonds, and federal and state funds. The key to sustainable innovative financing mechanisms is effective policymaking. This paper discusses the theoretical framework of a research study whose objective is to structurally and systemically assess financial innovations in global infrastructures. The research aims to create analysis frameworks, taxonomies and constructs, and simulation models pertaining to the dynamics of the innovation process to be used in policy analysis. Structural assessment of innovative financing focuses on the typologies and loci of innovations and evaluates the performance of different types of innovative financing mechanisms. Systemic analysis of innovative financing explores the determinants of the innovation process using the System of Innovation approach. The final deliverables of the research include propositions pertaining to the constituents of System of Innovation for infrastructure finance which include the players, institutions, activities, and networks. These static constructs are used to develop a hybrid Agent-Based/System Dynamics simulation model to derive propositions regarding the emergent dynamics of the system. The initial outcomes of the research study are presented in this paper and include: (a) an archetype for mapping innovative financing mechanisms, (b) a System of Systems-based analysis framework to identify the dimensions of Systems of Innovation analyses, and (c) initial observations regarding the players, institutions, activities, and networks of the System of Innovation in the context of the U.S. transportation infrastructure financing.

Lions and Roses: An Interpretive History of Israeli-Iranian Relations

This multi-disciplinary research project explores the religious and cultural foundations within the “master commemorative narratives” that frame Israeli and Iranian political discourse. In articulating their grievances against one another, Israeli and Iranian leaders express the tensions between religion, nationalism, and modernity in their own societies. The theoretical and methodological approach of this dissertation is constructivist-interpretivist. The concept of “master commemorative narratives” is adapted from Yael Zerubavel’s study of ritualized remembrance in Israeli political culture, and applied to both Israeli and Iranian foreign policy. Israel’s master commemorative narrative draws heavily upon the language of the Hebrew Bible, situating foreign policy discourse within a paradigm of covenantal patrimony, exile, and return, despite the unrelenting hostility of eternal enemies and “the nations.” Iran’s master commemorative narrative expresses Iranian suspicion of foreign encroachment and interference, and of the internal corruption that they engender, sacralizing resistance to the forces of evil in the figurative language and myths of pre-Islamic tradition and of Shi‘a Islam. Using a constructivist-interpretive methodological approach, this research offers a unique interpretive analysis of the parallels between these narratives, where they intersect, and where they come into conflict. It highlights both the broad appeal and the diverse challenges to the components of these “master” narratives within Israeli and Iranian politics and society. The conclusion of this study explains the ways in which the recognition of religious and cultural conflicts through the optic of master commemorative narratives can complement the perspectives of other theoretical approaches and challenge the conventions of Security Studies. It also suggests some of the potential practical applications of this research in devising more effective international diplomacy.

Foreign aid and the national interest : the cases of the United States and Japan

Developed countries give foreign assistance for many reasons, one of which is the protection of national interests. Foreign aid gives a donor country leverage in international relations and is used as a tool of foreign policy. The United States and Japan are the two largest aid donors in the world. Each of these countries exert influence over specific regions through foreign assistance. Although the national interests of each country are different, both use foreign aid to protect these interests. This thesis discusses the means by which the United States and Japan use foreign aid in foreign policy. It looks specifically at U.S. food aid to Central America and Japanese aid to Asia.

A OAB no processo de transformação da sociedade brasileira: a seccional potiguar como espaço de redemocratização (1979-1988)

The period known as the Military Dictatorship (1964-1985) was a period of history marked by Brazil's control of state power by the Armed Forces together, this started with the Civil-Military Coup of April 1964. Was characterized as a time where political freedoms of expression and were placed in check by authoritarian and repressive measures taken by the military governments. The sectional potiguar of the Ordem dos Advogados do Brasil (OAB / RN), and the Federal Council of the institution, supported the establishment of this scam, but from the 1970s undertook measures that sought to corroborate the struggles around democracy the country, which has consolidated its image as a defender of democratic order. With the title inspired by the XII Meeting of OAB in October 1988, the research aims to analyze the participation of OAB / RN and its members within the Brazilian democratization. This analysis begins in 1979 with the participation of the entity in discussions Amnesty Policy to the promulgation of the 1988 Constitution, since the Constitution is the beginning of a full rule of law. We seek to understand the object as a space for democratization, combining the concepts of History, Memory and Politics. In the analyzes are guided theoretically by Jacques Le Goff, Pierre Nora, Maurice Halbwachs, Pierre Bourdieu and Hannah Arendt. Be rebuilt the period of democratic rule in the land potiguares birthing shares of OAB / RN, particularly in the following events: Amnesty Policy 1979, the mobilizations around the campaign of "Direct Now" and the 1988 Constitution We make use of legislation. minutes, papers and interviews built on Oral History.

Inclusão de estudantes com deficiência no Instituto Federal da Paraíba a partir da ação TEC NEP

The current research developed in the Federal Institute of Paraíba – IFPB, João Pessoa Câmpus, aimed at analyzing the inclusion of students with disabilities in undergraduate courses based on the TEC NEP Action. It departs from the discussion about professional and special education in an inclusive perspective, focusing on people with disabilities, in the social context of these two modalities of education, considering the world scenario and the current Brazilian educational policy. It discusses the TEC NEP Action within the national and local context through the analysis of the official documents with the objective of getting familiarized and evaluating the process of educational inclusion in the IFPB João Pessoa Câmpus. The theoretical reference used contributed to the analysis of the policy which focused on inclusion in federal undergraduate institutions for professional education. The methodology used presents a qualitative analysis, having as subject of the research students with disabilities from undergraduate courses in the IFPB João Pessoa Câmpus who are supported by NAPNE. The results based on the analyzed data show that volunteer students from this research evaluate their process of inclusion in the appointed institution as positive, in spite of challenges specially the ones related to architectural barriers. It is concluded that the foundation of the House for Supporting People with Special Education Needs – (NAPNE) through the TEC NEP Action had crucial importance in the basis for the discussion about inclusion in the institution, widening the vision towards the demands of students with disabilities in order to facilitate access, permanence and academic success of these students.