Strategic Bidding in Electricity Markets: An agent-based simulator with game theory for scenario analysis

Electricity markets are complex environments, involving a large number of different entities, with specific characteristics and objectives, making their decisions and interacting in a dynamic scene. Game-theory has been widely used to support decisions in competitive environments; therefore its application in electricity markets can prove to be a high potential tool. This paper proposes a new scenario analysis algorithm, which includes the application of game-theory, to evaluate and preview different scenarios and provide players with the ability to strategically react in order to exhibit the behavior that better fits their objectives. This model includes forecasts of competitor players’ actions, to build models of their behavior, in order to define the most probable expected scenarios. Once the scenarios are defined, game theory is applied to support the choice of the action to be performed. Our use of game theory is intended for supporting one specific agent and not for achieving the equilibrium in the market. MASCEM (Multi-Agent System for Competitive Electricity Markets) is a multi-agent electricity market simulator that models market players and simulates their operation in the market. The scenario analysis algorithm has been tested within MASCEM and our experimental findings with a case study based on real data from the Iberian Electricity Market are presented and discussed.

Analysis of early synthetic dyes with HPLC-DAD-MS: an important database for analysis of colorants used in cultural heritage

Presented thesis at Faculdade de Ciências e Tecnologias, Universidade de Lisboa, to obtain the Master Degree in Conservation and Restoration of Textiles

Dynamic Analysis and Pattern Visualization of Forest Fires

This paper analyses forest fires in the perspective of dynamical systems. Forest fires exhibit complex correlations in size, space and time, revealing features often present in complex systems, such as the absence of a characteristic length-scale, or the emergence of long range correlations and persistent memory. This study addresses a public domain forest fires catalogue, containing information of events for Portugal, during the period from 1980 up to 2012. The data is analysed in an annual basis, modelling the occurrences as sequences of Dirac impulses with amplitude proportional to the burnt area. First, we consider mutual information to correlate annual patterns. We use visualization trees, generated by hierarchical clustering algorithms, in order to compare and to extract relationships among the data. Second, we adopt the Multidimensional Scaling (MDS) visualization tool. MDS generates maps where each object corresponds to a point. Objects that are perceived to be similar to each other are placed on the map forming clusters. The results are analysed in order to extract relationships among the data and to identify forest fire patterns.

Analysis of UV spectral bands using multidimensional scaling

This study describes the change of the ultraviolet spectral bands starting from 0.1 to 5.0 nm slit width in the spectral range of 200–400 nm. The analysis of the spectral bands is carried out by using the multidimensional scaling (MDS) approach to reach the latent spectral background. This approach indicates that 0.1 nm slit width gives higher-order noise together with better spectral details. Thus, 5.0 nm slit width possesses the higher peak amplitude and lower-order noise together with poor spectral details. In the above-mentioned conditions, the main problem is to find the relationship between the spectral band properties and the slit width. For this aim, the MDS tool is to used recognize the hidden information of the ultraviolet spectra of sildenafil citrate by using a Shimadzu UV–VIS 2550, which is in the world the best double monochromator instrument. In this study, the proposed mathematical approach gives the rich findings for the efficient use of the spectrophotometer in the qualitative and quantitative studies.

Application of Continuous Wavelet Transform to the Analysis of the Modulus of the Fractional Fourier Transform Bands for Resolving Two Component Mixture

In this paper, the fractional Fourier transform (FrFT) is applied to the spectral bands of two component mixture containing oxfendazole and oxyclozanide to provide the multicomponent quantitative prediction of the related substances. With this aim in mind, the modulus of FrFT spectral bands are processed by the continuous Mexican Hat family of wavelets, being denoted by MEXH-CWT-MOFrFT. Four modulus sets are obtained for the parameter a of the FrFT going from 0.6 up to 0.9 in order to compare their effects upon the spectral and quantitative resolutions. Four linear regression plots for each substance were obtained by measuring the MEXH-CWT-MOFrFT amplitudes in the application of the MEXH family to the modulus of the FrFT. This new combined powerful tool is validated by analyzing the artificial samples of the related drugs, and it is applied to the quality control of the commercial veterinary samples.

Dynamical Analysis and Visualization of Tornadoes Time Series

In this paper we analyze the behavior of tornado time-series in the U.S. from the perspective of dynamical systems. A tornado is a violently rotating column of air extending from a cumulonimbus cloud down to the ground. Such phenomena reveal features that are well described by power law functions and unveil characteristics found in systems with long range memory effects. Tornado time series are viewed as the output of a complex system and are interpreted as a manifestation of its dynamics. Tornadoes are modeled as sequences of Dirac impulses with amplitude proportional to the events size. First, a collection of time series involving 64 years is analyzed in the frequency domain by means of the Fourier transform. The amplitude spectra are approximated by power law functions and their parameters are read as an underlying signature of the system dynamics. Second, it is adopted the concept of circular time and the collective behavior of tornadoes analyzed. Clustering techniques are then adopted to identify and visualize the emerging patterns.

Co-Authorship of scientists in the energy field: an exploratory study of the ETDE World Energy Database (ETDEWEB) using Social Network Analysis

Paper presented at the 5th European Conference Economics and Management of Energy in Industry, Vilamoura, Algarve. Apr. 14-17, 2009, 11p. URL: http:// www.cenertec.pt/ecemei/

A Publicidade no Ensino do Inglês no 1.º Ciclo: uma abordagem didática

Numa era de globalização, de desenvolvimento tecnológico exponencial e de consumismo exacerbado, a publicidade conquistou o quotidiano das sociedades modernas e seduziu, também, as nossas crianças. Subjacente ao paradigma de que o comportamento humano dá respostas favoráveis a estímulos adequados e apresentados com oportunidade e habilidade (Caetano et al., 2011), colocamos a hipótese de utilização didática de anúncios publicitários na aula de Inglês para o desenvolvimento de competências comunicativas. Este projeto assentou no aproveitamento do potencial que a publicidade oferece, tendo em conta, por um lado, a envolvência sedutora que a torna um meio privilegiado para captar a atenção e veicular informação e, por outro, a prevalência de palavras em Inglês que nela se observa. O estudo, de natureza qualitativa, é o resultado de uma investigação-ação, na qual adotamos uma metodologia baseada num modelo descritivo e interpretativo, através de métodos qualitativos de recolha de dados e análise de informação, que teve como participantes crianças do 4.º ano de escolaridade. Desenvolvemos questionários, como instrumentos de recolha de dados, aplicados a professores e alunos. Construímos, igualmente, guiões de atividades com sugestões de exploração da publicidade no ensino da língua. Comprovamos que a publicidade, aliada ao Inglês, pode ser um valioso recurso no desenvolvimento e aprendizagem das crianças, pois é um material autêntico, motivador, atrai a atenção, possibilita o contacto com situações reais, envolve linguagem verbal e não-verbal e permite a exploração de diferentes temas, o que contribui, certamente, para a compreensão intercultural, a mobilização de saberes e o desenvolvimento do espírito crítico.

Contributos de um jogo tipo peddy paper na motivação de alunos para aprendizagens do tema sol-terra-vida

Este estudo tem como objetivo principal conhecer, analisar e refletir sobre as conceções e as práticas de sala de aula, relativamente à importância dos jogos como ferramenta motivadora para a aprendizagem de novos conteúdos. Numa primeira parte deste documento, é feita uma abordagem teórica sobre as questões que levaram à realização deste projeto. Numa segunda parte apresenta-se o estudo empírico que inclui a recolha do testemunho de alunos que realizaram as atividades propostas, bem como as suas expetativas acerca do uso do jogo na sala de aula. Foi utilizado o processo metodológico de investigação – ação. A recolha de dados baseouse em: observação direta, narrativa descritiva de toda a aula baseada nas Narrações Multimodais; questionário de resposta aberta e registos fotográficos, sobre os quais faremos uma análise qualitativa. Nas partes seguintes deste documento apresenta-se a análise de dades, que foi de natureza qualitativa, as conclusões e as limitações.

A gestão de tesouraria nas instituições de Ensino Superior

No atual contexto económico e financeiro, a gestão de tesouraria assume uma importância relevante dentro das organizações. Efetivamente, o dinheiro é a preocupação de qualquer gestor. A obtenção deste recurso escasso, com o mínimo custo e geri-lo de forma a otimizá-lo, é sem dúvida, o objetivo de qualquer gestor financeiro, no contexto de incerteza em que nos movemos. A atual crise proporciona à tesouraria a oportunidade ideal de realçar a sua importância estratégica e o valor acrescentado que pode trazer às organizações. Todas as áreas da organização, direta ou indiretamente, mantêm ligações com a área de tesouraria. O objetivo deste trabalho é enfatizar a relevância da gestão de tesouraria nos processos financeiros, antecipando informações para análise e tomada de decisão dos responsáveis financeiros nas Instituições de Ensino Superior; é demonstrar que a gestão de tesouraria deve fazer parte da cultura da organização e que é uma ferramenta de apoio para o planeamento financeiro, da gestão estratégica, de investimentos e de aproveitamento de oportunidades de crescimento das Instituições de Ensino Superior. Por último, pretendeu-se identificar e sugerir boas práticas e melhorias nos processos existentes, nas Instituições de Ensino Superior, que possam contribuir para a eficiência e eficácia da gestão de tesouraria. A revisão da literatura conduziu-nos à análise das diversas perspetivas da gestão de tesouraria, a importância das boas práticas, do sistema de controlo interno e da auditoria. Mostrou-se pertinente compreender o contexto jurídico das IES. Foi relevante a abordagem dos ciclos financeiros das organizações, para compreender a importância da realização de orçamentos de tesouraria, como um instrumento do controlo dos fluxos financeiros e da tomada de decisões dentro das organizações. Realizou-se ainda uma abordagem à gestão de crédito, às fontes de financiamento e à temática da centralização da gestão de tesouraria nas IES, por se entender que são aspetos fundamentais que contribuem para a eficiência e a eficácia desta área de atuação das instituições. Decorrente da revisão da literatura, identificaram-se as perguntas de investigação e aplicou-se a metodologia de um estudo de caso único de uma instituição de ensino superior, através da elaboração de entrevistas, recolha dos dados, pesquisa documental, observação direta e participativa do investigador. As conclusões finais do nosso estudo revelaram que o modelo de análise aplicado ao IPP, teve uma taxa de confirmação de 53%. As componentes do modelo em análise com os resultados mais significativos e que mais contribuíram para esta confirmação, foram a gestão de tesouraria considerada como um patamar estratégico nesta IES, a elaboração do orçamento de tesouraria e os procedimentos associados ao sistema de controlo interno.

Viability and molecular authentication of Coccidioides spp. isolates from the Instituto de Medicina Tropical de São Paulo culture collection, Brazil

Coccidioidomycosis is an emerging fungal disease in Brazil; adequate maintenance and authentication of Coccidioides isolates are essential for research into genetic diversity of the environmental organisms, as well as for understanding the human disease. Seventeen Coccidioides isolates maintained under mineral oil since 1975 in the Instituto de Medicina Tropical de São Paulo (IMTSP) culture collection, Brazil, were evaluated with respect to their viability, morphological characteristics and genetic features in order to authenticate these fungal cultures. Only five isolates were viable after almost 30 years, showing typical morphological characteristics, and sequencing analysis using Coi-F and Coi-R primers revealed 99% identity with Coccidioides genera. These five isolates were then preserved in liquid nitrogen and sterile water, and remained viable after two years of storage under these conditions, maintaining the same features.

Hydrologic modeling and uncertainty analysis of an ungauged watershed using mapwindow-swat

Dissertation submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the Degree of Master of Science in Geospatial Technologies

Automatic Small Bowel Tumor Diagnosis by Using Multi-Scale Wavelet-Based Analysis in Wireless Capsule Endoscopy Images

BACKGROUND: Wireless capsule endoscopy has been introduced as an innovative, non-invasive diagnostic technique for evaluation of the gastrointestinal tract, reaching places where conventional endoscopy is unable to. However, the output of this technique is an 8 hours video, whose analysis by the expert physician is very time consuming. Thus, a computer assisted diagnosis tool to help the physicians to evaluate CE exams faster and more accurately is an important technical challenge and an excellent economical opportunity. METHOD: The set of features proposed in this paper to code textural information is based on statistical modeling of second order textural measures extracted from co-occurrence matrices. To cope with both joint and marginal non-Gaussianity of second order textural measures, higher order moments are used. These statistical moments are taken from the two-dimensional color-scale feature space, where two different scales are considered. Second and higher order moments of textural measures are computed from the co-occurrence matrices computed from images synthesized by the inverse wavelet transform of the wavelet transform containing only the selected scales for the three color channels. The dimensionality of the data is reduced by using Principal Component Analysis. RESULTS: The proposed textural features are then used as the input of a classifier based on artificial neural networks. Classification performances of 93.1% specificity and 93.9% sensitivity are achieved on real data. These promising results open the path towards a deeper study regarding the applicability of this algorithm in computer aided diagnosis systems to assist physicians in their clinical practice.

Analysis of mental health service financial models with a particular emphasis of Ireland

ABSTRACT: Financing is a critical factor in ensuring the optimal development and delivery of a mental health system. The primary method of financing worldwide is tax-based. However many low income countries depend on out-of-pocket payments. There is a report on Irish Health Care funding but none that deals exclusively with mental health care. This paper analyses the various financial models that exist globally with respect to financing the mental health sector, examines the impact of various models on service users, especially in terms of relative ‘financial burden’ and provides a more detailed examination of the current mental health funding situation in Ireland After extensive internet and hardcopy research on the above topics, the findings were analysed and a number of recommendations were reached. Mental health service should be free at the point of delivery to achieve universal coverage. Government tax-based funding or mandatory social insurance with government top-ups, as required, appears the optimal option, although there is no one funding system applicable everywhere. Out-of-pocket funding can create a crippling financial burden for service users. It is important to employ improved revenue collection systems, eliminate waste, provide equitable resource distribution, ring fence mental health funding and cap the number of visits, where necessary. Political, economic, social and cultural factors play a role in funding decisions and this can be clearly seen in the context of the current economic recession in Ireland. Only 33% of the Irish population has access to free public health care and the number health insurance policy holders has dramatically declined, resulting in increased out-of-pocket payments. This approach risks negatively impacting on the social determinants of health, increasing health inequalities and negatively affecting economic productivity. It is therefore important the Irish government examines other options to provide funding for mental health services.

Learning networks and moodle use in online courses: a social network analysis study

Dissertação para obtenção do Grau de Doutor em Ciências da Educação Especialidade em Tecnologias, Redes e Multimédia na Educação e Formação