Continental and global scale flood forecasting systems

Floods are the most frequent of natural disasters, affecting millions of people across the globe every year. The anticipation and forecasting of floods at the global scale is crucial to preparing for severe events and providing early awareness where local flood models and warning services may not exist. As numerical weather prediction models continue to improve, operational centres are increasingly using the meteorological output from these to drive hydrological models, creating hydrometeorological systems capable of forecasting river flow and flood events at much longer lead times than has previously been possible. Furthermore, developments in, for example, modelling capabilities, data and resources in recent years have made it possible to produce global scale flood forecasting systems. In this paper, the current state of operational large scale flood forecasting is discussed, including probabilistic forecasting of floods using ensemble prediction systems. Six state-of-the-art operational large scale flood forecasting systems are reviewed, describing similarities and differences in their approaches to forecasting floods at the global and continental scale. Currently, operational systems have the capability to produce coarse-scale discharge forecasts in the medium-range and disseminate forecasts and, in some cases, early warning products, in real time across the globe, in support of national forecasting capabilities. With improvements in seasonal weather forecasting, future advances may include more seamless hydrological forecasting at the global scale, alongside a move towards multi-model forecasts and grand ensemble techniques, responding to the requirement of developing multi-hazard early warning systems for disaster risk reduction.

Authenticity and performance of class in British factual TV series

The chapter characterises British ‘Reality TV’ as a hybrid of factual and fictional television genres, as signaled by the more accurate genre designation ‘structured reality’ television. From the 1990s onwards, in order to develop programmes that are attractive to audiences and inexpensive to produce, programme makers have focused on hybrids of dramatic and documentary modes. This chapter argues that many recent Reality TV programmes privilege soap opera’s emphasis on character, storyline and performance. This affects the ways that class authenticity is understood, undermining factual programmes’ usual claim to legitimacy based on reference to a pre-existing reality, and transforming hierarchies that separate highly-valued from low-valued types of programme.

Comparative Cytogenetics and Molecular Phylogeography in the Group Astyanax altiparanae - Astyanax aff. bimaculatus (Teleostei, Characidae)

The genus Astyanax comprises small characin fish of the neotropical region. The so-called `yellow-tailed characins` compose one of the most widely distributed Astyanax groups. A. altiparanae and A. aff. bimaculatus, are evolutionarily closely related and commonly found in several Brazilian hydrographic basins. In the present work, chromosomal data of specimens of A. altiparanae and A. aff. bimaculatus from 4 hydrographic basins in the states of Sao Paulo (Upper Tiete, Paranapanema, Ribeira de Iguape) and Rio de Janeiro (Guapimirim) are shown. All the populations showed 50 chromosomes, with different karyotypic formula. Although only a single Ag-NOR bearing chromosome pair was observed, all populations possess multiple cistrons of 18S rDNA. FISH with the 5S rDNA probe showed single signals at the interstitial position of one metacentric chromosome pair. C-bands are distributed in the terminal and interstitial regions of several chromosomes. However, the As-51 satDNA are frugally located in a few chromosomes of fishes from Upper Tiete, Paranapanema and Guapimirim Rivers, being absent in individuals of A. aff. bimaculatus from Ribeira de Iguape River basin. Beside these 4 populations, molecular phylogeography studies were also performed in individuals from Middle and Lower Tiete River basin and from 2 additional collection sites in the Paranapanema and Ribeira de Iguape River basins. The phylogeographic analysis using 2 mtDNA regions (totalizing 1.314 bp of ND2 and ATPase6/8 genes) of 8 populations of the group of `yellow-tailed characins` from 3 major hydrographic basins showed structuring of populations, suggesting a correlation between chromosomal (nuclear) and molecular (mitochondrial) data. Copyright (C) 2011 S. Karger AG, Basel

Patterns of oocyte development in natural habitat and captive Salminus hilarii Valenciennes, 1850 (Teleostei: Characidae)

Fecundity and oocyte development in Salminus hilarii female brood stock were analyzed with the aim of investigating the impact of migration impediment on oogenesis. Histological analyses of the ovaries were performed in adult females caught in two different environments-the TietA(a) River (natural) and captivity-and the gonadossomatic index, oocyte diameter and fecundity determined. Five germ cell development stages (oogonium, perinucleolar, cortical alveoli, vitellogenic, ripe) and two other structures (postovulatory follicles and atretic oocytes) were observed in females caught in the river. Captive animals lacked the ripe oocytes and postovulatory follicles and had a relatively higher number of atretic oocytes. Females in captivity are known to produce larger oocytes, and they release fewer eggs in each spawn (absolute fecundity) when compared with animals that are able to migrate. Our results suggest that the TietA(a) River is undergoing alterations which are being reflected in the reproductive performance of S. hilarii, mainly due to the presence of atretic oocytes in females caught in the river. The lack of postovulatory follicles and ripe oocytes in captive animals reveals that migratory impediment negatively impacts final oocyte maturation. However, the stage of maturation reached is adequate for ovulation induction with hormone manipulation.

Controls of heavy minerals and grain size in a holocene regressive barrier (Ilha Comprida, southeastern Brazil)

Ilha Comprida is a regressive barrier island located in southeastern Brazil that was formed essentially by Quaternary sandy sediments. Ilha Comprida sediments were analyzed to assess heavy mineral indices and grain size variables. The spatial variation of heavy minerals and grain size was interpreted in terms of the present barrier dynamics and the barrier`s evolution since the Middle Holocene. These analyses allowed for the identification of the main factors and processes that control the variation of heavy minerals and grain size on the barrier. Rutile and zircon (RZi) and tourmaline and hornblende (THi) are significantly sensitive to provenance and exhibit the contributions of the Ribeira de Iguape River sediments, which reach the coast next to the northeastern end of Ilha Comprida. In addition to the influence of provenance, TZi responds mainly to hydraulic sorting processes. This agrees with a sediment transport pattern characterized by a divergence of two resultant net alongshore drifts southwest of the barrier. The sediments from the Ribeira de Iguape River reach the barrier directly through the river mouth and indirectly after temporary storage in the inner shelf. The combination of grain size and heavy mineral analyses is a reliable method for determining sediment transport patterns and provenance. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Hydropower Energy Simulation Using Mike 11 Model; A Case Study In South Germany's Small Run-Of-River Hydropower Plants

Renewable energy production is a basic supplement to stabilize rapidly increasing global energy demand and skyrocketing energy price as well as to balance the fluctuation of supply from non-renewable energy sources at electrical grid hubs. The European energy traders, government and private company energy providers and other stakeholders have been, since recently, a major beneficiary, customer and clients of Hydropower simulation solutions. The relationship between rainfall-runoff model outputs and energy productions of hydropower plants has not been clearly studied. In this research, association of rainfall, catchment characteristics, river network and runoff with energy production of a particular hydropower station is examined. The essence of this study is to justify the correspondence between runoff extracted from calibrated catchment and energy production of hydropower plant located at a catchment outlet; to employ a unique technique to convert runoff to energy based on statistical and graphical trend analysis of the two, and to provide environment for energy forecast. For rainfall-runoff model setup and calibration, MIKE 11 NAM model is applied, meanwhile MIKE 11 SO model is used to track, adopt and set a control strategy at hydropower location for runoff-energy correlation. The model is tested at two selected micro run-of-river hydropower plants located in South Germany. Two consecutive calibration is compromised to test the model; one for rainfall-runoff model and other for energy simulation. Calibration results and supporting verification plots of two case studies indicated that simulated discharge and energy production is comparable with the measured discharge and energy production respectively.

Reducing The Risk Of Floods In Urban Areas With Combined Inland-River System

With the change of the water environment in accordance with climate change, the loss of lives and properties has increased due to urban flood. Although the importance of urban floods has been highlighted quickly, the construction of advancement technology of an urban drainage system combined with inland-river water and its relevant research has not been emphasized in Korea. In addition, without operation in consideration of combined inland-river water, it is difficult to prevent urban flooding effectively. This study, therefore, develops the uncertainty quantification technology of the risk-based water level and the assessment technology of a flood-risk region through a flooding analysis of the combination of inland-river. The study is also conducted to develop forecast technology of change in the water level of an urban region through the construction of very short-term/short-term flood forecast systems. This study is expected to be able to build an urban flood forecast system which makes it possible to support decision making for systematic disaster prevention which can cope actively with climate change.

Evaluation Of Reservoir Model Integration With Deterministic And Probabilistic Streamflow Forecasts

Due to the increase in water demand and hydropower energy, it is getting more important to operate hydraulic structures in an efficient manner while sustaining multiple demands. Especially, companies, governmental agencies, consultant offices require effective, practical integrated tools and decision support frameworks to operate reservoirs, cascades of run-of-river plants and related elements such as canals by merging hydrological and reservoir simulation/optimization models with various numerical weather predictions, radar and satellite data. The model performance is highly related with the streamflow forecast, related uncertainty and its consideration in the decision making. While deterministic weather predictions and its corresponding streamflow forecasts directly restrict the manager to single deterministic trajectories, probabilistic forecasts can be a key solution by including uncertainty in flow forecast scenarios for dam operation. The objective of this study is to compare deterministic and probabilistic streamflow forecasts on an earlier developed basin/reservoir model for short term reservoir management. The study is applied to the Yuvacık Reservoir and its upstream basin which is the main water supply of Kocaeli City located in the northwestern part of Turkey. The reservoir represents a typical example by its limited capacity, downstream channel restrictions and high snowmelt potential. Mesoscale Model 5 and Ensemble Prediction System data are used as a main input and the flow forecasts are done for 2012 year using HEC-HMS. Hydrometeorological rule-based reservoir simulation model is accomplished with HEC-ResSim and integrated with forecasts. Since EPS based hydrological model produce a large number of equal probable scenarios, it will indicate how uncertainty spreads in the future. Thus, it will provide risk ranges in terms of spillway discharges and reservoir level for operator when it is compared with deterministic approach. The framework is fully data driven, applicable, useful to the profession and the knowledge can be transferred to other similar reservoir systems.

Isolation and characterization of eight microsatellite loci in Leporinus macrocephalus (Characiformes : Anostomidae) and cross-species amplification

Leporinus macrocephalus is a species endemic to the Paraguay River basin and an important fishery resource, as well as a valuable species in aquaculture programs. A total of eight polymorphic microsatellite loci were isolated and characterized. A population survey was conducted involving 45 specimens whereby a large number of alleles (range 5-17 among loci), a highly observed (0.1667-0.6129) and an expected (0.6967-0.9448) heterozygosity was detected, indicating its usefulness in population genetics studies. Cross-species amplification was successful in eight Characiformes species.

DNA barcodes discriminate freshwater fishes from the Paraiba do Sul River Basin, São Paulo, Brazil

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Characterization of invasive fish species in a river transposition region: evolutionary chromosome studies in the genus Hoplias (Characiformes, Erythrinidae)

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Natural and artificially-induced habitat complexity and freshwater fish species composition

The effects of habitat complexity, induced by construction of artificial reefs, on the fish assemblages in the Barra Bonita reservoir, Brazil, and in the lotic zone immediately below the dam were studied. Four artificial reefs were constructed in each habitat at variable distances from the shore. Multiple correspondence analysis showed that the factors distance from the shore and type of habitat were determinants for the group formation, and artificial reefs had a lesser effect. Fish species composition was about the same at locations with and without reefs.

Small-scale fisheries in the middle River Tocantins, Imperatriz (MA), Brazil

The description of the small-scale fisheries in the middle River Tocantins and their dynamics, in a full year cycle, was made out using questionnaires when interviewing fishermen at Imperatriz market. The landed fish exhibited a seasonal pattern related to the hydrological cycle, fishing effort and species diversity. Curimata, Prochilodus nigricans Agassiz, is the most important commercial fish. The fishing gears used in the area are castnets, gillnets, longlines and beach seines. Thirty-six percent of fish landed were caught exclusively by beach seine which mainly targets curimata. Alterations in the physical and biological characteristics of the middle River Tocantins due to the building of the Tucurui dam (2850 km(2) total area) allowed the mapara, Hipophthalmus marginatus Valenciennes, to colonise this area. During the closed season for nets, Siluriformes are the target of the fisheries, caught exclusively by longlining.

Fish community alterations due to pollution and damming in Tiete and Paranapanema rivers (Brazil)

The Tiete River crosses the metropolitan region of São Paulo (Brazil) and receives a large amount of pollution, in contrast to Paranapanema River which runs in a less populated area. In the inferior portions of the basins of these rivers, a series of reservoirs has been built for hydroelectric energy generation which improve the water quality due to the decantation of suspended soils and aeration in the water spills.Twenty-nine sampling sites were established along the two rivers and in each sampling site, two groups of eight gillnets were used with standardized sizes in two seasons: winter (dry season: June-September 1994) and summer (rainy season: December-March 1995). The fishes were measured and weighed.Twenty-five parameters related. to the water were recorded. PCA and cluster analysis helped to identify two groups of sampling sites. The first one corresponds to the rainy season samples, while the second corresponds to the dry season samples, so evidencing strong seasonal environmental variation. However, the dry season group is still divided into polluted and non-polluted sites, showing that during drought there are larger effects of pollutant concentration due to the decreased flow.A total of 415 kg of fish were caught, corresponding to 8324 individuals belonging to 64 different species, in 22 families and four orders of Teleostei. The largest catches occurred in the middle Tiete River. The catches in the reservoirs of the Tiete River, during the rainy season are superior to those of the dry season. on the other hand, sampling sites located in running water presented an inverse pattern with the largest catches in the dry-season. In river Paranapanema, catches are lower than in the Tiete River, except in Rosana Reservoir during the rainy season. Fish diversity was shown to be a good-indicator of environmental stress. In Tiete River an expressive fall in species richness was detected in the polluted stretches, with dominance of one or two species. In the intermediary stretches, the presence of rapids increases the amount of dissolved oxygen, allowing the development of the most abundant and diverse fish community of the river. Fish communities in the reservoirs of the inferior stretch of Tiete River are more diverse. on the other hand, the damming of the superior reaches of Paranapanema River provoked a decrease in diversity. 0 the whole, types of local fish communities detected, showing different compositions and specific abundances, revealed different ecological situations. A discriminant analysis revealed that the parameters of the water influencing the fish community were: dissolved oxygen, conductivity, nitrogen (nitrate, ammoniacal and albuminoid), phosphate, alkalinity, hardness and iron. Copyright (C) 2003 John Wiley Sons, Ltd.

Weathering rates at Alto Sorocaba basin, Brazil, using U-isotopes and major cations

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)