993 resultados para Bayesian-estimation
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Dispersed information on water retention and availability in soils may be compiled in databases to generate pedotransfer functions. The objectives of this study were: to generate pedotransfer functions to estimate soil water retention based on easily measurable soil properties; to evaluate the efficiency of existing pedotransfer functions for different geographical regions for the estimation of water retention in soils of Rio Grande do Sul (RS); and to estimate plant-available water capacity based on soil particle-size distribution. Two databases were set up for soil properties, including water retention: one based on literature data (725 entries) and the other with soil data from an irrigation scheduling and management system (239 entries). From the literature database, pedotransfer functions were generated, nine pedofunctions available in the literature were evaluated and the plant-available water capacity was calculated. The coefficient of determination of some pedotransfer functions ranged from 0.56 to 0.66. Pedotransfer functions generated based on soils from other regions were not appropriate for estimating the water retention for RS soils. The plant-available water content varied with soil texture classes, from 0.089 kg kg-1 for the sand class to 0.191 kg kg-1 for the silty clay class. These variations were more related to sand and silt than to clay content. The soils with a greater silt/clay ratio, which were less weathered and with a greater quantity of smectite clay minerals, had high water retention and plant-available water capacity.
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[cat] Es presenta un estimador nucli transformat que és adequat per a distribucions de cua pesada. Utilitzant una transformació basada en la distribució de probabilitat Beta l’elecció del paràmetre de finestra és molt directa. Es presenta una aplicació a dades d’assegurances i es mostra com calcular el Valor en Risc.
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We propose an iterative procedure to minimize the sum of squares function which avoids the nonlinear nature of estimating the first order moving average parameter and provides a closed form of the estimator. The asymptotic properties of the method are discussed and the consistency of the linear least squares estimator is proved for the invertible case. We perform various Monte Carlo experiments in order to compare the sample properties of the linear least squares estimator with its nonlinear counterpart for the conditional and unconditional cases. Some examples are also discussed
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The aim of this paper is twofold. First, we study the determinants of economic growth among a wide set of potential variables for the Spanish provinces (NUTS3). Among others, we include various types of private, public and human capital in the group of growth factors. Also,we analyse whether Spanish provinces have converged in economic terms in recent decades. Thesecond objective is to obtain cross-section and panel data parameter estimates that are robustto model speci¯cation. For this purpose, we use a Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA) approach.Bayesian methodology constructs parameter estimates as a weighted average of linear regression estimates for every possible combination of included variables. The weight of each regression estimate is given by the posterior probability of each model.
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Recent findings suggest an association between exposure to cleaning products and respiratory dysfunctions including asthma. However, little information is available about quantitative airborne exposures of professional cleaners to volatile organic compounds deriving from cleaning products. During the first phases of the study, a systematic review of cleaning products was performed. Safety data sheets were reviewed to assess the most frequently added volatile organic compounds. It was found that professional cleaning products are complex mixtures of different components (compounds in cleaning products: 3.5 ± 2.8), and more than 130 chemical substances listed in the safety data sheets were identified in 105 products. The main groups of chemicals were fragrances, glycol ethers, surfactants, solvents; and to a lesser extent phosphates, salts, detergents, pH-stabilizers, acids, and bases. Up to 75% of products contained irritant (Xi), 64% harmful (Xn) and 28% corrosive (C) labeled substances. Hazards for eyes (59%), skin (50%) and by ingestion (60%) were the most reported. Monoethanolamine, a strong irritant and known to be involved in sensitizing mechanisms as well as allergic reactions, is frequently added to cleaning products. Monoethanolamine determination in air has traditionally been difficult and air sampling and analysis methods available were little adapted for personal occupational air concentration assessments. A convenient method was developed with air sampling on impregnated glass fiber filters followed by one step desorption, gas chromatography and nitrogen phosphorous selective detection. An exposure assessment was conducted in the cleaning sector, to determine airborne concentrations of monoethanolamine, glycol ethers, and benzyl alcohol during different cleaning tasks performed by professional cleaning workers in different companies, and to determine background air concentrations of formaldehyde, a known indoor air contaminant. The occupational exposure study was carried out in 12 cleaning companies, and personal air samples were collected for monoethanolamine (n=68), glycol ethers (n=79), benzyl alcohol (n=15) and formaldehyde (n=45). All but ethylene glycol mono-n-butyl ether air concentrations measured were far below (<1/10) of the Swiss eight hours occupational exposure limits, except for butoxypropanol and benzyl alcohol, where no occupational exposure limits were available. Although only detected once, ethylene glycol mono-n-butyl ether air concentrations (n=4) were high (49.5 mg/m3 to 58.7 mg/m3), hovering at the Swiss occupational exposure limit (49 mg/m3). Background air concentrations showed no presence of monoethanolamine, while the glycol ethers were often present, and formaldehyde was universally detected. Exposures were influenced by the amount of monoethanolamine in the cleaning product, cross ventilation and spraying. The collected data was used to test an already existing exposure modeling tool during the last phases of the study. The exposure estimation of the so called Bayesian tool converged with the measured range of exposure the more air concentrations of measured exposure were added. This was best described by an inverse 2nd order equation. The results suggest that the Bayesian tool is not adapted to predict low exposures. The Bayesian tool should be tested also with other datasets describing higher exposures. Low exposures to different chemical sensitizers and irritants should be further investigated to better understand the development of respiratory disorders in cleaning workers. Prevention measures should especially focus on incorrect use of cleaning products, to avoid high air concentrations at the exposure limits. - De récentes études montrent l'existence d'un lien entre l'exposition aux produits de nettoyages et les maladies respiratoires telles que l'asthme. En revanche, encore peu d'informations sont disponibles concernant la quantité d'exposition des professionnels du secteur du nettoyage aux composants organiques volatiles provenant des produits qu'ils utilisent. Pendant la première phase de cette étude, un recueil systématique des produits professionnels utilisés dans le secteur du nettoyage a été effectué. Les fiches de données de sécurité de ces produits ont ensuite été analysées, afin de répertorier les composés organiques volatiles les plus souvent utilisés. Il a été mis en évidence que les produits de nettoyage professionnels sont des mélanges complexes de composants chimiques (composants chimiques dans les produits de nettoyage : 3.5 ± 2.8). Ainsi, plus de 130 substances listées dans les fiches de données de sécurité ont été retrouvées dans les 105 produits répertoriés. Les principales classes de substances chimiques identifiées étaient les parfums, les éthers de glycol, les agents de surface et les solvants; dans une moindre mesure, les phosphates, les sels, les détergents, les régulateurs de pH, les acides et les bases ont été identifiés. Plus de 75% des produits répertoriés contenaient des substances décrites comme irritantes (Xi), 64% nuisibles (Xn) et 28% corrosives (C). Les risques pour les yeux (59%), la peau (50%) et par ingestion (60%) était les plus mentionnés. La monoéthanolamine, un fort irritant connu pour être impliqué dans les mécanismes de sensibilisation tels que les réactions allergiques, est fréquemment ajouté aux produits de nettoyage. L'analyse de la monoéthanolamine dans l'air a été habituellement difficile et les échantillons d'air ainsi que les méthodes d'analyse déjà disponibles étaient peu adaptées à l'évaluation de la concentration individuelle d'air aux postes de travail. Une nouvelle méthode plus efficace a donc été développée en captant les échantillons d'air sur des filtres de fibre de verre imprégnés, suivi par une étape de désorption, puis une Chromatographie des gaz et enfin une détection sélective des composants d'azote. Une évaluation de l'exposition des professionnels a été réalisée dans le secteur du nettoyage afin de déterminer la concentration atmosphérique en monoéthanolamine, en éthers de glycol et en alcool benzylique au cours des différentes tâches de nettoyage effectuées par les professionnels du nettoyage dans différentes entreprises, ainsi que pour déterminer les concentrations atmosphériques de fond en formaldéhyde, un polluant de l'air intérieur bien connu. L'étude de l'exposition professionnelle a été effectuée dans 12 compagnies de nettoyage et les échantillons d'air individuels ont été collectés pour l'éthanolamine (n=68), les éthers de glycol (n=79), l'alcool benzylique (n=15) et le formaldéhyde (n=45). Toutes les substances mesurées dans l'air, excepté le 2-butoxyéthanol, étaient en-dessous (<1/10) de la valeur moyenne d'exposition aux postes de travail en Suisse (8 heures), excepté pour le butoxypropanol et l'alcool benzylique, pour lesquels aucune valeur limite d'exposition n'était disponible. Bien que détecté qu'une seule fois, les concentrations d'air de 2-butoxyéthanol (n=4) étaient élevées (49,5 mg/m3 à 58,7 mg/m3), se situant au-dessus de la frontière des valeurs limites d'exposition aux postes de travail en Suisse (49 mg/m3). Les concentrations d'air de fond n'ont montré aucune présence de monoéthanolamine, alors que les éthers de glycol étaient souvent présents et les formaldéhydes quasiment toujours détectés. L'exposition des professionnels a été influencée par la quantité de monoéthanolamine présente dans les produits de nettoyage utilisés, par la ventilation extérieure et par l'emploie de sprays. Durant la dernière phase de l'étude, les informations collectées ont été utilisées pour tester un outil de modélisation de l'exposition déjà existant, l'outil de Bayesian. L'estimation de l'exposition de cet outil convergeait avec l'exposition mesurée. Cela a été le mieux décrit par une équation du second degré inversée. Les résultats suggèrent que l'outil de Bayesian n'est pas adapté pour mettre en évidence les taux d'expositions faibles. Cet outil devrait également être testé avec d'autres ensembles de données décrivant des taux d'expositions plus élevés. L'exposition répétée à des substances chimiques ayant des propriétés irritatives et sensibilisantes devrait être investiguée d'avantage, afin de mieux comprendre l'apparition de maladies respiratoires chez les professionnels du nettoyage. Des mesures de prévention devraient tout particulièrement être orientées sur l'utilisation correcte des produits de nettoyage, afin d'éviter les concentrations d'air élevées se situant à la valeur limite d'exposition acceptée.
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We present optimal measuring strategies for an estimation of the entanglement of unknown two-qubit pure states and of the degree of mixing of unknown single-qubit mixed states, of which N identical copies are available. The most general measuring strategies are considered in both situations, to conclude in the first case that a local, although collective, measurement suffices to estimate entanglement, a nonlocal property, optimally.
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An accurate mass formula at finite temperature has been used to obtain a more precise estimation of temperature effects on fission barriers calculated within the liquid drop model.
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This report describes a statewide study conducted to develop main-channel slope (MCS) curves for 138 selected streams in Iowa with drainage areas greater than 100 square miles. MCS values determined from the curves can be used in regression equations for estimating flood frequency discharges. Multi-variable regression equations previously developed for two of the three hydrologic regions defined for Iowa require the measurement of MCS. Main-channel slope is a difficult measurement to obtain for large streams using 1:24,000-scale topographic maps. The curves developed in this report provide a simplified method for determining MCS values for sites located along large streams in Iowa within hydrologic Regions 2 and 3. The curves were developed using MCS values quantified for 2,058 selected sites along 138 selected streams in Iowa. A geographic information system (GIS) technique and 1:24,000-scale topographic data were used to quantify MCS values for the stream sites. The sites were selected at about 5-mile intervals along the streams. River miles were quantified for each stream site using a GIS program. Data points for river-mile and MCS values were plotted and a best-fit curve was developed for each stream. An adjustment was applied to all 138 curves to compensate for differences in MCS values between manual measurements and GIS quantification. The multi-variable equations for Regions 2 and 3 were developed using manual measurements of MCS. A comparison of manual measurements and GIS quantification of MCS indicates that manual measurements typically produce greater values of MCS compared to GIS quantification. Median differences between manual measurements and GIS quantification of MCS are 14.8 and 17.7 percent for Regions 2 and 3, respectively. Comparisons of percentage differences between flood-frequency discharges calculated using MCS values of manual measurements and GIS quantification indicate that use of GIS values of MCS for Region 3 substantially underestimate flood discharges. Mean and median percentage differences for 2- to 500-year recurrence-interval flood discharges ranged from 5.0 to 5.3 and 4.3 to 4.5 percent, respectively, for Region 2 and ranged from 18.3 to 27.1 and 12.3 to 17.3 percent for Region 3. The MCS curves developed from GIS quantification were adjusted by 14.8 percent for streams located in Region 2 and by 17.7 percent for streams located in Region 3. Comparisons of percentage differences between flood discharges calculated using MCS values of manual measurements and adjusted-GIS quantification for Regions 2 and 3 indicate that the flood-discharge estimates are comparable. For Region 2, mean percentage differences for 2- to 500-year recurrence-interval flood discharges ranged between 0.6 and 0.8 percent and median differences were 0.0 percent. For Region 3, mean and median differences ranged between 5.4 to 8.4 and 0.0 to 0.3 percent, respectively. A list of selected stream sites presented with each curve provides information about the sites including river miles, drainage areas, the location of U.S. Geological Survey stream flowgage stations, and the location of streams Abstract crossing hydro logic region boundaries or the Des Moines Lobe landforms region boundary. Two examples are presented for determining river-mile and MCS values, and two techniques are presented for computing flood-frequency discharges.
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The aim of this study was to evaluate the forensic protocol recently developed by Qiagen for the QIAsymphony automated DNA extraction platform. Samples containing low amounts of DNA were specifically considered, since they represent the majority of samples processed in our laboratory. The analysis of simulated blood and saliva traces showed that the highest DNA yields were obtained with the maximal elution volume available for the forensic protocol, that is 200 ml. Resulting DNA extracts were too diluted for successful DNA profiling and required a concentration. This additional step is time consuming and potentially increases inversion and contamination risks. The 200 ml DNA extracts were concentrated to 25 ml, and the DNA recovery estimated with real-time PCR as well as with the percentage of SGM Plus alleles detected. Results using our manual protocol, based on the QIAamp DNA mini kit, and the automated protocol were comparable. Further tests will be conducted to determine more precisely DNA recovery, contamination risk and PCR inhibitors removal, once a definitive procedure, allowing the concentration of DNA extracts from low yield samples, will be available for the QIAsymphony.
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The soil water available to crops is defined by specific values of water potential limits. Underlying the estimation of hydro-physical limits, identified as permanent wilting point (PWP) and field capacity (FC), is the selection of a suitable method based on a multi-criteria analysis that is not always clear and defined. In this kind of analysis, the time required for measurements must be taken into consideration as well as other external measurement factors, e.g., the reliability and suitability of the study area, measurement uncertainty, cost, effort and labour invested. In this paper, the efficiency of different methods for determining hydro-physical limits is evaluated by using indices that allow for the calculation of efficiency in terms of effort and cost. The analysis evaluates both direct determination methods (pressure plate - PP and water activity meter - WAM) and indirect estimation methods (pedotransfer functions - PTFs). The PTFs must be validated for the area of interest before use, but the time and cost associated with this validation are not included in the cost of analysis. Compared to the other methods, the combined use of PP and WAM to determine hydro-physical limits differs significantly in time and cost required and quality of information. For direct methods, increasing sample size significantly reduces cost and time. This paper assesses the effectiveness of combining a general analysis based on efficiency indices and more specific analyses based on the different influencing factors, which were considered separately so as not to mask potential benefits or drawbacks that are not evidenced in efficiency estimation.
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Selostus: Ayrshire-ensikoiden koelypsykohtaisen maidontuotannon perinnölliset tunnusluvut laktaation eri vaiheissa
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Field-based soil moisture measurements are cumbersome. Thus, remote sensing techniques are needed because allows field and landscape-scale mapping of soil moisture depth-averaged through the root zone of existing vegetation. The objective of the study was to evaluate the accuracy of an empirical relationship to calculate soil moisture from remote sensing data of irrigated soils of the Apodi Plateau, in the Brazilian semiarid region. The empirical relationship had previously been tested for irrigated soils in Mexico, Egypt, and Pakistan, with promising results. In this study, the relationship was evaluated from experimental data collected from a cotton field. The experiment was carried out in an area of 5 ha with irrigated cotton. The energy balance and evaporative fraction (Λ) were measured by the Bowen ratio method. Soil moisture (θ) data were collected using a PR2 - Profile Probe (Delta-T Devices Ltd). The empirical relationship was tested using experimentally collected Λ and θ values and was applied using the Λ values obtained from the Surface Energy Balance Algorithm for Land (SEBAL) and three TM - Landsat 5 images. There was a close correlation between measured and estimated θ values (p<0.05, R² = 0.84) and there were no significant differences according to the Student t-test (p<0.01). The statistical analyses showed that the empirical relationship can be applied to estimate the root-zone soil moisture of irrigated soils, i.e. when the evaporative fraction is greater than 0.45.
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Detailed knowledge on water percolation into the soil in irrigated areas is fundamental for solving problems of drainage, pollution and the recharge of underground aquifers. The aim of this study was to evaluate the percolation estimated by time-domain-reflectometry (TDR) in a drainage lysimeter. We used Darcy's law with K(θ) functions determined by field and laboratory methods and by the change in water storage in the soil profile at 16 points of moisture measurement at different time intervals. A sandy clay soil was saturated and covered with plastic sheet to prevent evaporation and an internal drainage trial in a drainage lysimeter was installed. The relationship between the observed and estimated percolation values was evaluated by linear regression analysis. The results suggest that percolation in the field or laboratory can be estimated based on continuous monitoring with TDR, and at short time intervals, of the variations in soil water storage. The precision and accuracy of this approach are similar to those of the lysimeter and it has advantages over the other evaluated methods, of which the most relevant are the possibility of estimating percolation in short time intervals and exemption from the predetermination of soil hydraulic properties such as water retention and hydraulic conductivity. The estimates obtained by the Darcy-Buckingham equation for percolation levels using function K(θ) predicted by the method of Hillel et al. (1972) provided compatible water percolation estimates with those obtained in the lysimeter at time intervals greater than 1 h. The methods of Libardi et al. (1980), Sisson et al. (1980) and van Genuchten (1980) underestimated water percolation.
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The plant-available water capacity of the soil is defined as the water content between field capacity and wilting point, and has wide practical application in planning the land use. In a representative profile of the Cerrado Oxisol, methods for estimating the wilting point were studied and compared, using a WP4-T psychrometer and Richards chamber for undisturbed and disturbed samples. In addition, the field capacity was estimated by the water content at 6, 10, 33 kPa and by the inflection point of the water retention curve, calculated by the van Genuchten and cubic polynomial models. We found that the field capacity moisture determined at the inflection point was higher than by the other methods, and that even at the inflection point the estimates differed, according to the model used. By the WP4-T psychrometer, the water content was significantly lower found the estimate of the permanent wilting point. We concluded that the estimation of the available water holding capacity is markedly influenced by the estimation methods, which has to be taken into consideration because of the practical importance of this parameter.