Annular variability and eddy-zonal flow interactions in a simplified atmospheric GCM. Part 1: Characterization of high and low frequency behaviour

Experiments have been performed using a simplified, Newtonian forced, global circulation model to investigate how variability of the tropospheric jet can be characterized by examining the combined fluctuations of the two leading modes of annular variability. Eddy forcing of this variability is analyzed in the phase space of the leading modes using the vertically integrated momentum budget. The nature of the annular variability and eddy forcing depends on the time scale. At low frequencies the zonal flow and baroclinic eddies are in quasi equilibrium and anomalies propagate poleward. The eddies are shown primarily to reinforce the anomalous state and are closely balanced by the linear damping, leaving slow evolution as a residual. At high frequencies the flow is strongly evolving and anomalies are initiated on the poleward side of the tropospheric jet and propagate equatorward. The eddies are shown to drive this evolution strongly: eddy location and amplitude reflect the past baroclinicity, while eddy feedback on the zonal flow may be interpreted in terms of wave breaking associated with baroclinic life cycles in lateral shear.

Modelling monsoons: understanding and predicting current and future behaviour

The global monsoon system is so varied and complex that understanding and predicting its diverse behaviour remains a challenge that will occupy modellers for many years to come. Despite the difficult task ahead, an improved monsoon modelling capability has been realized through the inclusion of more detailed physics of the climate system and higher resolution in our numerical models. Perhaps the most crucial improvement to date has been the development of coupled ocean-atmosphere models. From subseasonal to interdecadal time scales, only through the inclusion of air-sea interaction can the proper phasing and teleconnections of convection be attained with respect to sea surface temperature variations. Even then, the response to slow variations in remote forcings (e.g., El Niño—Southern Oscillation) does not result in a robust solution, as there are a host of competing modes of variability that must be represented, including those that appear to be chaotic. Understanding the links between monsoons and land surface processes is not as mature as that explored regarding air-sea interactions. A land surface forcing signal appears to dominate the onset of wet season rainfall over the North American monsoon region, though the relative role of ocean versus land forcing remains a topic of investigation in all the monsoon systems. Also, improved forecasts have been made during periods in which additional sounding observations are available for data assimilation. Thus, there is untapped predictability that can only be attained through the development of a more comprehensive observing system for all monsoon regions. Additionally, improved parameterizations - for example, of convection, cloud, radiation, and boundary layer schemes as well as land surface processes - are essential to realize the full potential of monsoon predictability. A more comprehensive assessment is needed of the impact of black carbon aerosols, which may modulate that of other anthropogenic greenhouse gases. Dynamical considerations require ever increased horizontal resolution (probably to 0.5 degree or higher) in order to resolve many monsoon features including, but not limited to, the Mei-Yu/Baiu sudden onset and withdrawal, low-level jet orientation and variability, and orographic forced rainfall. Under anthropogenic climate change many competing factors complicate making robust projections of monsoon changes. Absent aerosol effects, increased land-sea temperature contrast suggests strengthened monsoon circulation due to climate change. However, increased aerosol emissions will reflect more solar radiation back to space, which may temper or even reduce the strength of monsoon circulations compared to the present day. Precipitation may behave independently from the circulation under warming conditions in which an increased atmospheric moisture loading, based purely on thermodynamic considerations, could result in increased monsoon rainfall under climate change. The challenge to improve model parameterizations and include more complex processes and feedbacks pushes computing resources to their limit, thus requiring continuous upgrades of computational infrastructure to ensure progress in understanding and predicting current and future behaviour of monsoons.

Modelling the inorganic nitrogen behaviour in a small Mediterranean forested catchment, Fuirosos (Catalonia)

The aim of this work was to couple a nitrogen (N) sub-model to already existent hydrological lumped (LU4-N) and semi-distributed (LU4-R-N and SD4-R-N) conceptual models, to improve our understanding of the factors and processes controlling nitrogen cycling and losses in Mediterranean catchments. The N model adopted provides a simplified conceptualization of the soil nitrogen cycle considering mineralization, nitrification, immobilization, denitrification, plant uptake, and ammonium adsorption/desorption. It also includes nitrification and denitrification in the shallow perched aquifer. We included a soil moisture threshold for all the considered soil biological processes. The results suggested that all the nitrogen processes were highly influenced by the rain episodes and that soil microbial processes occurred in pulses stimulated by soil moisture increasing after rain. Our simulation highlighted the riparian zone as a possible source of nitrate, especially after the summer drought period, but it can also act as an important sink of nitrate due to denitrification, in particular during the wettest period of the year. The riparian zone was a key element to simulate the catchment nitrate behaviour. The lumped LU4-N model (which does not include the riparian zone) could not be validated, while both the semi-distributed LU4-R-N and SD4-R-N model (which include the riparian zone) gave satisfactory results for the calibration process and acceptable results for the temporal validation process.

A randomised controlled trial of cognitive behaviour therapy for psychosis in a routine clinical service

Objective: To evaluate CBTp delivered by non-expert therapists, using CBT relevant measures. Methods: Participants (N=74) were randomised into immediate therapy or waiting list control groups. The therapy group was offered six months of therapy and followed up three months later. The waiting list group received therapy after waiting nine months (becoming the delayed therapy group). Results: Depression improved in the combined therapy group at both the end of therapy and follow-up. Other significant effects were found in only one of the two therapy groups (positive symptoms; cognitive flexibility; uncontrollability of thoughts) or one of the two timepoints (end of therapy: PANSS general symptoms, anxiety, suicidal ideation, social functioning, resistance to voices; follow-up: power beliefs about voices, negative symptoms). There was no difference in costs between the groups. Conclusions: The only robust improvement was in depression. Nevertheless, there were further encouraging but modest improvements in both emotional and cognitive variables, in addition to psychotic symptoms.

The soil-dwelling earthworm Allolobophora chlorotica modifies its burrowing behaviour in response to carbendazim applications

Carbendazim-amended soil was placed above or below unamended soil. Control tests comprised two layers of unamended soil. Allolobophora chlorotica earthworms were added to either the upper or the unamended soil. After 72 h vertical distributions of earthworms were compared between control and carbendazim-amended experiments. Earthworm distributions in the carbendazim-amended test containers differed significantly from the ‘normal’ distribution observed in the control tests. In the majority of the experiments, earthworms significantly altered their burrowing behaviour to avoid carbendazim. However, when earthworms were added to an upper layer of carbendazim-amended soil they remained in this layer. This non-avoidance is attributed to (1) the earthworms’ inability to sense the lower layer of unamended soil and (2) the toxic effect of carbendazim inhibiting burrowing. Earthworms modified their burrowing behaviour in response to carbendazim in the soil. This may explain anomalous results observed in pesticide field trials when carbendazim is used as a control substance.

The effect of incremental replacement of wheat with soya hulls in diets for Jersey cows on lactational performance, diet digestibility and feeding behaviour

Eight Jersey cows were used in two balanced 4 x 4 Latin Squares to investigate the effects of replacement of dietary starch with non-forage fibre on productivity, diet digestibility and feeding behaviour. Total-mixed rations consisted of maize silage, grass silage and a soyabean meal-based concentrate mixture, each at 250g/kg DM, with the remaining 250g consisting of cracked wheat/soya hulls (SH) in the ratios of 250:0, 167:83; 83:167 and 0:250 g, respectively, for treatments SH0, SH83, SH167 and SH250. Starch concentrations were 302, 248, 193 and 140g/kg DM, and NDF concentrations were 316, 355, 394 and 434g/kg DM, for treatments SHO, SH83, SH167 and SH250, respectively. Total eating time increased (p < 0.05) as SH inclusion increased, but total rumination time was unaffected. Digestibility of DM, organic matter and starch declined (p < 0.01) as SH inclusion increased, whilst digestibility of NDF and ADF increased (p < 0.01). Dry-matter intake tended to decline with increasing SH, whilst bodyweight, milk yield and fat and lactose concentrations were unaffected by treatment. Milk protein concentration decreased (p < 0.01) as SH level increased. Feed conversion efficiency improved (p < 0.05) as SH inclusion rose, but it was not possible to determine whether this was due to the increased fibre levels alone, or the favourable effect on rumen fermentation of decreasing starch levels. (c) 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.