Using crop simulation to generate genotype by environment interaction effects for sorghum in water-limited environments

Multi-environment trials (METs) used to evaluate breeding lines vary in the number of years that they sample. We used a cropping systems model to simulate the target population of environments (TPE) for 6 locations over 108 years for 54 'near-isolines' of sorghum in north-eastern Australia. For a single reference genotype, each of 547 trials was clustered into 1 of 3 'drought environment types' (DETs) based on a seasonal water stress index. Within sequential METs of 2 years duration, the frequencies of these drought patterns often differed substantially from those derived for the entire TPE. This was reflected in variation in the mean yield of the reference genotype. For the TPE and for 2-year METs, restricted maximum likelihood methods were used to estimate components of genotypic and genotype by environment variance. These also varied substantially, although not in direct correlation with frequency of occurrence of different DETs over a 2-year period. Combined analysis over different numbers of seasons demonstrated the expected improvement in the correlation between MET estimates of genotype performance and the overall genotype averages as the number of seasons in the MET was increased.

Cholesterol-lowering therapy with pravastatin in patients with average cholesterol levels and established ischaemic heart disease: is it cost-effective?

Objective: To measure the cost-effectiveness of cholesterol-lowering therapy with pravastatin in patients with established ischaemic heart disease and average baseline cholesterol levels. Design: Prospective economic evaluation within a double-blind randomised trial (Long-Term Intervention with Pravastatin in Ischaemic Disease [LIPID]), in which patients with a history of unstable angina or previous myocardial infarction were randomised to receive 40 mg of pravastatin daily or matching placebo. Patients and setting: 9014 patients aged 35-75 years from 85 centres in Australia and New Zealand, recruited from June 1990 to December 1992. Main outcome measures: Cost per death averted, cost per life-year gained, and cost per quality-adjusted life-year gained, calculated from measures of hospitalisations, medication use, outpatient visits, and quality of life. Results: The LIPID trial showed a 22% relative reduction in all-cause mortality (P < 0.001). Over a mean follow-up of 6 years, hospital admissions for coronary heart disease and coronary revascularisation were reduced by about 20%. Over this period, pravastatin cost $A4913 per patient, but reduced total hospitalisation costs by $A1385 per patient and other long-term medication costs by $A360 per patient. In a subsample of patients, average quality of life was 0.98 (where 0 = dead and 1 = normal good health); the treatment groups were not significantly different. The absolute reduction in all-cause mortality was 3.0% (95% CI, 1.6%-4.4%), and the incremental cost was $3246 per patient, resulting in a cost per life saved of $107730 (95% Cl, $68626-$209881) within the study period. Extrapolating long-term survival from the placebo group, the undiscounted cost per life-year saved was $7695 (and $10 938 with costs and life-years discounted at an annual rate of 5%). Conclusions: Pravastatin therapy for patients with a history of myocardial infarction or unstable angina and average cholesterol levels reduces all-cause mortality and appears cost effective compared with accepted treatments in high-income countries.

Infusing the use of seasonal climate forecasting into crop management practice in North East Australia using discussion support software

Seasonal climate forecasting offers potential for improving management of crop production risks in the cropping systems of NE Australia. But how is this capability best connected to management practice? Over the past decade, we have pursued participative systems approaches involving simulation-aided discussion with advisers and decision-makers. This has led to the development of discussion support software as a key vehicle for facilitating infusion of forecasting capability into practice. In this paper, we set out the basis of our approach, its implementation and preliminary evaluation. We outline the development of the discussion support software Whopper Cropper, which was designed for, and in close consultation with, public and private advisers. Whopper Cropper consists of a database of simulation output and a graphical user interface to generate analyses of risks associated with crop management options. The charts produced provide conversation pieces for advisers to use with their farmer clients in relation to the significant decisions they face. An example application, detail of the software development process and an initial survey of user needs are presented. We suggest that discussion support software is about moving beyond traditional notions of supply-driven decision support systems. Discussion support software is largely demand-driven and can compliment participatory action research programs by providing cost-effective general delivery of simulation-aided discussions about relevant management actions. The critical role of farm management advisers and dialogue among key players is highlighted. We argue that the discussion support concept, as exemplified by the software tool Whopper Cropper and the group processes surrounding it, provides an effective means to infuse innovations, like seasonal climate forecasting, into farming practice. Crown Copyright (C) 2002 Published by Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Development of a generic crop model template in the cropping system model APSIM

The Agricultural Production Systems slMulator, APSIM, is a cropping system modelling environment that simulates the dynamics of soil-plant-management interactions within a single crop or a cropping system. Adaptation of previously developed crop models has resulted in multiple crop modules in APSIM, which have low scientific transparency and code efficiency. A generic crop model template (GCROP) has been developed to capture unifying physiological principles across crops (plant types) and to provide modular and efficient code for crop modelling. It comprises a standard crop interface to the APSIM engine, a generic crop model structure, a crop process library, and well-structured crop parameter files. The process library contains the major science underpinning the crop models and incorporates generic routines based on physiological principles for growth and development processes that are common across crops. It allows APSIM to simulate different crops using the same set of computer code. The generic model structure and parameter files provide an easy way to test, modify, exchange and compare modelling approaches at process level without necessitating changes in the code. The standard interface generalises the model inputs and outputs, and utilises a standard protocol to communicate with other APSIM modules through the APSIM engine. The crop template serves as a convenient means to test new insights and compare approaches to component modelling, while maintaining a focus on predictive capability. This paper describes and discusses the scientific basis, the design, implementation and future development of the crop template in APSIM. On this basis, we argue that the combination of good software engineering with sound crop science can enhance the rate of advance in crop modelling. Crown Copyright (C) 2002 Published by Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

Future contributions of crop modelling - from heuristics and supporting decision making to understanding genetic regulation and aiding crop improvement

Crop modelling has evolved over the last 30 or so years in concert with advances in crop physiology, crop ecology and computing technology. Having reached a respectable degree of acceptance, it is appropriate to review briefly the course of developments in crop modelling and to project what might be major contributions of crop modelling in the future. Two major opportunities are envisioned for increased modelling activity in the future. One opportunity is in a continuing central, heuristic role to support scientific investigation, to facilitate decision making by crop managers, and to aid in education. Heuristic activities will also extend to the broader system-level issues of environmental and ecological aspects of crop production. The second opportunity is projected as a prime contributor in understanding and advancing the genetic regulation of plant performance and plant improvement. Physiological dissection and modelling of traits provides an avenue by which crop modelling could contribute to enhancing integration of molecular genetic technologies in crop improvement. Crown Copyright (C) 2002 Published by Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

Airborne pollen of Brisbane, Australia: a five-year record, 1994-1999

The seasonal incidence of pollen in the atmosphere of Brisbane has been established from a near continuous. volumetric trapping program over the five-year period, July 1994-June 1999. Grass pollen accounts for 71.6% of the average annual pollen load with highest densities (up to 150 grains/m(3)) recorded in summer and autumn. Significant contributions were also made by taxa of the Cupressaceae (8.7%) and Urticaceae (1.8%) during spring and of the Pinaceae (4.5%) during winter. Pollen seasons of the Casuarinaceae (6.5%) and Myrtaceae (3.2%) are more extended, the former peaking in late winter and the latter in late spring. The onset and duration of the Poaceae and Urticaceae seasons varied from year to year, being later when precipitation levels were low in the late spring-early summer months. Total pollen numbers and grass pollen densities are substantially less than those recorded from southern Australia. Nevertheless, respiratory disease in Brisbane affects up to 10% of the population, and airborne pollen of Poaceae, Urticaceae, Cupressaceae, Pinaceae, and Myrtaceae have been implicated in the release of allergens.

The GP problem: quantifying gene-to-phenotype relationships

In this paper we refer to the gene-to-phenotype modeling challenge as the GP problem. Integrating information across levels of organization within a genotype-environment system is a major challenge in computational biology. However, resolving the GP problem is a fundamental requirement if we are to understand and predict phenotypes given knowledge of the genome and model dynamic properties of biological systems. Organisms are consequences of this integration, and it is a major property of biological systems that underlies the responses we observe. We discuss the E(NK) model as a framework for investigation of the GP problem and the prediction of system properties at different levels of organization. We apply this quantitative framework to an investigation of the processes involved in genetic improvement of plants for agriculture. In our analysis, N genes determine the genetic variation for a set of traits that are responsible for plant adaptation to E environment-types within a target population of environments. The N genes can interact in epistatic NK gene-networks through the way that they influence plant growth and development processes within a dynamic crop growth model. We use a sorghum crop growth model, available within the APSIM agricultural production systems simulation model, to integrate the gene-environment interactions that occur during growth and development and to predict genotype-to-phenotype relationships for a given E(NK) model. Directional selection is then applied to the population of genotypes, based on their predicted phenotypes, to simulate the dynamic aspects of genetic improvement by a plant-breeding program. The outcomes of the simulated breeding are evaluated across cycles of selection in terms of the changes in allele frequencies for the N genes and the genotypic and phenotypic values of the populations of genotypes.

The Three-dimensional Solution Structure of NaD1, a New Floral Defensin from Nicotiana alata and its Application to a Homology Model of the Crop Defense Protein alfAFP

NMR spectroscopy and simulated annealing calculations have been used to determine the three-dimensional structure of NaD1, a novel antifungal and insecticidal protein isolated from the flowers of Nicotiana alata. NaD1 is a basic, cysteine-rich protein of 47 residues and is the first example of a plant defensin from flowers to be characterized structurally. Its three-dimensional structure consists of an a-helix and a triple-stranded anti-parallel beta-sheet that are stabilized by four intramolecular disulfide bonds. NaD1 features all the characteristics of the cysteine-stabilized up motif that has been described for a variety of proteins of differing functions ranging from antibacterial insect defensins and ion channel-perturbing scorpion toxins to an elicitor of the sweet taste response. The protein is biologically active against insect pests, which makes it a potential candidate for use in crop protection. NaD1 shares 31% sequence identity with alfAFP, an antifungal protein from alfalfa that confers resistance to a fungal pathogen in transgenic potatoes. The structure of NaD1 was used to obtain a homology model of alfAFP, since NaD1 has the highest level of sequence identity with alfAFP of any structurally characterized antifungal defensin. The structures of NaD1 and alfAFP were used in conjunction with structure - activity data for the radish defensin Rs-AFP2 to provide an insight into structure-function relationships. In particular, a putative effector site was identified in the structure of NaD1 and in the corresponding homology model of alfAFP. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Control of Aedes vectors of dengue in three provinces of Vietnam by use of Mesocyclops (Copepoda) and community-based methods validated by entomologic, clinical, and serological surveillance

We describe remarkable success in controlling dengue vectors, Aedes aegypti (L.) and Aedes albopictus (Skuse), in 6 communes with 11,675 households and 49,647 people in the northern provinces of Haiphong, Hung Yen, and Nam Dinh in Vietnam. The communes were selected for high-frequency use of large outdoor concrete tanks and wells. These were found to be the source of 49.6-98.4% of Ae. aegypti larvae, which were amenable to treatment with local Mesocyclops, mainly M. woutersi Van der Velde, M. aspericornis (Daday) and M. thermocyclopoides Harada. Knowledge, attitude, and practice surveys were performed to determine whether the communities viewed dengue and dengue hemorrhagic fever as a serious health threat; to determine their knowledge of the etiology, attitudes, and practices regarding control methods including Mesocyclops; and to determine their receptivity to various information methods. On the basis of the knowledge, attitude, and practice data, the community-based dengue control program comprised a system of local leaders, health volunteer teachers, and schoolchildren, supported by health professionals. Recycling of discards for economic gain was enhanced, where appropriate, and this, plus 37 clean-up campaigns, removed small containers unsuitable for Mesocyclops treatment. A previously successful eradication at Phan Boi village (Hung Yen province) was extended to 7 other villages forming Di Su commune (1,750 households) in the current study. Complete control was also achieved in Nghia Hiep (Hung Yen province) and in Xuan Phong (Nam Dinh province); control efficacy was greater than or equal to 99.7% in the other 3 communes (Lac Vien in Haiphong, Nghia Dong, and Xuan Kien in Nam Dinh). Although tanks and wells were the key container types of Ae. aegypti productivity, discarded materials were the source of 51% of the standing crop of Ae. albopictus. Aedes albopictus larvae were eliminated from the 3 Nam Dinh communes, and 86-98% control was achieved in the other 3 communes. Variable dengue attack rates made the clinical and serological comparison of control and untreated communes problematic, but these data indicate that clinical surveillance by itself is inadequate to monitor dengue transmission.

An evaluation of a family psychoeducation program in community mental health

The aim of the research project was to identify the efficacy of the family psychoeducation program as a strategy for reducing the hospital admissions of young people. It also aimed to determine if the family psychoeducation program had an impact on the experience of caregiving and knowledge and satisfaction of services provided by the mental health service. A retrospective chart audit compared readmission history of 27 clients whose families attended a psychoeducation program with readmission history of a matched group of young people whose families did not attend the program. A telephone survey was conducted for both groups of families to investigate knowledge and understanding of services and burden of care. The results indicated that family participation in a brief multiple family psychoeducation program did not reduce the number or duration of admissions of the young people. There was no impact on the level of care for families who attended the psychoeducation program, however, this group showed some evidence of increased knowledge and understanding of services as compared to the control group.