Evaluating the influence of spatial uncertainty in locality points for species distributional modeling

1. Species distribution modelling is used increasingly in both applied and theoretical research to predict how species are distributed and to understand attributes of species' environmental requirements. In species distribution modelling, various statistical methods are used that combine species occurrence data with environmental spatial data layers to predict the suitability of any site for that species. While the number of data sharing initiatives involving species' occurrences in the scientific community has increased dramatically over the past few years, various data quality and methodological concerns related to using these data for species distribution modelling have not been addressed adequately. 2. We evaluated how uncertainty in georeferences and associated locational error in occurrences influence species distribution modelling using two treatments: (1) a control treatment where models were calibrated with original, accurate data and (2) an error treatment where data were first degraded spatially to simulate locational error. To incorporate error into the coordinates, we moved each coordinate with a random number drawn from the normal distribution with a mean of zero and a standard deviation of 5 km. We evaluated the influence of error on the performance of 10 commonly used distributional modelling techniques applied to 40 species in four distinct geographical regions. 3. Locational error in occurrences reduced model performance in three of these regions; relatively accurate predictions of species distributions were possible for most species, even with degraded occurrences. Two species distribution modelling techniques, boosted regression trees and maximum entropy, were the best performing models in the face of locational errors. The results obtained with boosted regression trees were only slightly degraded by errors in location, and the results obtained with the maximum entropy approach were not affected by such errors. 4. Synthesis and applications. To use the vast array of occurrence data that exists currently for research and management relating to the geographical ranges of species, modellers need to know the influence of locational error on model quality and whether some modelling techniques are particularly robust to error. We show that certain modelling techniques are particularly robust to a moderate level of locational error and that useful predictions of species distributions can be made even when occurrence data include some error.

Dukes B colorectal cancer: distinct genetic categories and clinical outcome based on proximal or distal tumor location.

PURPOSE: The aim of this study was to determine whether tumor location proximal or distal to the splenic flexure is associated with distinct molecular patterns and can predict clinical outcome in a homogeneous group of patients with Dukes B (T3-T4, N0, M0) colorectal cancer. It has been hypothesized that proximal and distal colorectal cancer may arise through different pathogenetic mechanisms. Although p53 and Ki-ras gene mutations occur frequently in distal tumors, another form of genomic instability associated with defective DNA mismatch repair has been predominantly identified in the proximal colon. To date, however, the clinical usefulness of these molecular characteristics remains unproven. METHODS: A total of 126 patients with a lymph node-negative sporadic colon or rectum adenocarcinoma were prospectively assessed with the endpoint of death by cancer. No patient received either radiotherapy or chemotherapy. p53 protein was studied by immunohistochemistry using DO-7 monoclonal antibody, and p53 and Ki-ras gene mutations were detected by single strand conformation polymorphism assay. RESULTS: During a mean follow-up of 67 months, the overall five-year survival was 70 percent. Nuclear p53 staining was found in 57 tumors (47 percent), and was more frequent in distal than in proximal tumors (55 vs. 21 percent; chi-squared test, P < 0.001). For the whole group, p53 protein expression correlated with poor survival in univariate and multivariate analysis (log-rank test, P = 0.01; hazard ratio = 2.16; 95 percent confidence interval = 1.12-4.11, P = 0.02). Distal colon tumors and rectal tumors exhibited similar molecular patterns and showed no difference in clinical outcome. In comparison with distal colorectal cancer, proximal tumors were found to be statistically significantly different on the following factors: mucinous content (P = 0.008), degree of histologic differentiation (P = 0.012), p53 protein expression, and gene mutation (P = 0.001 and 0.01 respectively). Finally, patients with proximal tumors had a marginally better survival than those with distal colon or rectal cancers (log-rank test, P = 0.045). CONCLUSION: In this series of Dukes B colorectal cancers, p53 protein expression was an independent factor for survival, which also correlated with tumor location. Eighty-six percent of p53-positive tumors were located in the distal colon and rectum. Distal colon and rectum tumors had similar molecular and clinical characteristics. In contrast, proximal neoplasms seem to represent a distinct entity, with specific histopathologic characteristics, molecular patterns, and clinical outcome. Location of the neoplasm in reference to the splenic flexure should be considered before group stratification in future trials of adjuvant chemotherapy in patients with Dukes B tumors.

Mean-payoff games and propositional proofs

"Vegeu el resum a l'inici del document del fitxer adjunt."

Understanding the low-temperature limitations to forest growth through calibration of a forest dynamics model with tree-ring data

The sensitivity of altitudinal and latitudinal tree-line ecotones to climate change, particularly that of temperature, has received much attention. To improve our understanding of the factors affecting tree-line position, we used the spatially explicit dynamic forest model TreeMig. Although well-suited because of its landscape dynamics functions, TreeMig features a parabolic temperature growth response curve, which has recently been questioned. and the species parameters are not specifically calibrated for cold temperatures. Our main goals were to improve the theoretical basis of the temperature growth response curve in the model and develop a method for deriving that curve's parameters from tree-ring data. We replaced the parabola with an asymptotic curve, calibrated for the main species at the subalpine (Swiss Alps: Pinus cembra, Larix decidua, Picea abies) and boreal (Fennoscandia: Pinus sylvestris, Betula pubescens, P. abies) tree-lines. After fitting new parameters, the growth curve matched observed tree-ring widths better. For the subalpine species, the minimum degree-day sum allowing, growth (kDDMin) was lowered by around 100 degree-days; in the case of Larix, the maximum potential ring-width was increased to 5.19 mm. At the boreal tree-line, the kDDMin for P. sylvestris was lowered by 210 degree-days and its maximum ring-width increased to 2.943 mm; for Betula (new in the model) kDDMin was set to 325 degree-days and the maximum ring-width to 2.51 mm; the values from the only boreal sample site for Picea were similar to the subalpine ones, so the same parameters were used. However, adjusting the growth response alone did not improve the model's output concerning species' distributions and their relative importance at tree-line. Minimum winter temperature (MinWiT, mean of the coldest winter month), which controls seedling establishment in TreeMig, proved more important for determining distribution. Picea, P. sylvestris and Betula did not previously have minimum winter temperature limits, so these values were set to the 95th percentile of each species' coldest MinWiT site (respectively -7, -11, -13). In a case study for the Alps, the original and newly calibrated versions of TreeMig were compared with biomass data from the National Forest Inventor), (NFI). Both models gave similar, reasonably realistic results. In conclusion, this method of deriving temperature responses from tree-rings works well. However, regeneration and its underlying factors seem more important for controlling species' distributions than previously thought. More research on regeneration ecology, especially at the upper limit of forests. is needed to improve predictions of tree-line responses to climate change further.

Dynamics of experimental populations of native and introduced blowflies (Diptera: Calliphoridae): mathematical modelling and the transition from asymptotic equilibrium to bounded oscillations

The equilibrium dynamics of native and introduced blowflies is modelled using a density-dependent model of population growth that takes into account important features of the life-history in these flies. A theoretical analysis indicates that the product of maximum fecundity and survival is the primary determinant of the dynamics. Cochliomyia macellaria, a blowfly native to the Americas and the introduced Chrysomya megacephala and Chrysomya putoria, differ in their dynamics in that the first species shows a damping oscillatory behavior leading to a one-point equilibrium, whereas in the last two species population numbers show a two-point limit cycle. Simulations showed that variation in fecundity has a marked effect on the dynamics and indicates the possibility of transitions from one-point equilibrium to bounded oscillations and aperiodic behavior. Variation in survival has much less influence on the dynamics.

Body mass index: comparing mean values and prevalence rates from telephone and examination surveys.

BACKGROUND: Cost effective means of assessing the levels of risk factors in the population have to be defined in order to monitor these factors over time and across populations. This study is aimed at analyzing the difference in population estimates of the mean levels of body mass index (BMI) and the prevalences of overweight, between health examination survey and telephone survey. METHODS: The study compares the results of two health surveys, one by telephone (N=820) and the other by physical examination (N=1318). The two surveys, based on independent random samples of the population, were carried out over the same period (1992-1993) in the same population (canton of Vaud, Switzerland). RESULTS: Overall participation rates were 67% and 53% for the health interview survey (HIS) and the health examination survey (HES) respectively. In the HIS, the reporting rate was over 98% for weight and height values. Self-reported weight was on average lower than measured weight, by 2.2 kg in men and 3.5 kg in women, while self-reported height was on average greater than measured height, by 1.2 cm in men and 1.9 cm in women. As a result, in comparison to HES, HIS led to substantially lower mean levels of BMI, and to a reduction of the prevalence rates of obesity (BMI>30 kg/m(2)) by more than a half. These differences are larger for women than for men. CONCLUSION: The two surveys were based on different sampling procedures. However, this difference in design is unlikely to explain the systematic bias observed between self-reported and measured values for height and weight. This bias entails the overall validity of BMI assessment from telephone surveys.

Optimal asymptotic bounds for spherical designs

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Seminar Report: Translating Research into Better Public Health: What Does it Mean for the CoE(NI)?

The workshop was attended by 13 people excluding facilitators. Most were from outside QUB (including Belfast City Council, NHSSB, BHSCT, Centre for Public Health, NICR, Institute of Agri-food and Land Use (QUB), etc).Programme was:Introductions Part 1: What’s “knowledge brokerage” all about?Presentation and Q&A (Kevin Balanda)Small group discussions Part 2: What the Centre of Excellence is doingPresentation and Q&A (Kevin Balanda)Small group discussions

Errors sintàctics del gènere gramatical durant la cirurgia de gliomes cerebrals

Les bases neurals del processament sintàctic del gènere no han estat gairebé estudiades. En aquest estudi hem utilitzat el mapeig cerebral, durant la cirurgia de gliomes cerebrals per a estudiar les estructures cortico-subcorticals implicades en el processament del gènere i determinar si aquestes són comunes a altres àrees de la producció del llenguatge. Amb l’estimulació cerebral directa hem observat alteracions sintàctiques del gènere, al estimular la circumvolució frontal inferior, la part posterior circumvolució temporal mitja, i en el nucli caudat. També hem pogut observar, una doble dissociació entre el gènere gramatical i la producció de la paraula, corroborant les teories d’un model independent en la producció del llenguatge.

Alcohol drinking and cardiovascular risk in a population with high mean alcohol consumption.

Moderate alcohol consumption has been associated with lower coronary artery disease (CAD) risk. However, data on the CAD risk associated with high alcohol consumption are conflicting. The aim of this study was to examine the impact of heavier drinking on 10-year CAD risk in a population with high mean alcohol consumption. In a population-based study of 5,769 adults (aged 35 to 75 years) without cardiovascular disease in Switzerland, 1-week alcohol consumption was categorized as 0, 1 to 6, 7 to 13, 14 to 20, 21 to 27, 28 to 34, and > or =35 drinks/week or as nondrinkers (0 drinks/week), moderate (1 to 13 drinks/week), high (14 to 34 drinks/week), and very high (> or =35 drinks/week). Blood pressure and lipids were measured, and 10-year CAD risk was calculated according to the Framingham risk score. Seventy-three percent (n = 4,214) of the participants consumed alcohol; 16% (n = 909) were high drinkers and 2% (n = 119) very high drinkers. In multivariate analysis, increasing alcohol consumption was associated with higher high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (from a mean +/- SE of 1.57 +/- 0.01 mmol/L in nondrinkers to 1.88 +/- 0.03 mmol/L in very high drinkers); triglycerides (1.17 +/- 1.01 to 1.32 +/- 1.05 mmol/L), and systolic and diastolic blood pressure (127.4 +/- 0.4 to 132.2 +/- 1.4 mm Hg and 78.7 +/- 0.3 to 81.7 +/- 0.9 mm Hg, respectively) (all p values for trend <0.001). Ten-year CAD risk increased from 4.31 +/- 0.10% to 4.90 +/- 0.37% (p = 0.03) with alcohol use, with a J-shaped relation. Increasing wine consumption was more related to high-density lipoprotein cholesterol levels, whereas beer and spirits were related to increased triglyceride levels. In conclusion, as measured by 10-year CAD risk, the protective effect of alcohol consumption disappears in very high drinkers, because the beneficial increase in high-density lipoprotein cholesterol is offset by the increases in blood pressure levels.

Spatio-temporal dynamics and transition from asymptotic equilibrium to bounded oscillations in Chrysomya albiceps (Diptera, Calliphoridae)

The sensitivity of parameters that govern the stability of population size in Chrysomya albiceps and describe its spatial dynamics was evaluated in this study. The dynamics was modeled using a density-dependent model of population growth. Our simulations show that variation in fecundity and mainly in survival has marked effect on the dynamics and indicates the possibility of transitions from one-point equilibrium to bounded oscillations. C. albiceps exhibits a two-point limit cycle, but the introduction of diffusive dispersal induces an evident qualitative shift from two-point limit cycle to a one fixed-point dynamics. Population dynamics of C. albiceps is here compared to dynamics of Cochliomyia macellaria, C. megacephala and C. putoria.

Agenda for Change: What Will It Mean For You? (PDF 53 KB)

A Guide for Staff