Monitoring the temporal development of natural hazard risks as a basis indicator for climate change adaptation.

The potential effects of climatic changes on natural risks are widely discussed. But the formulation of strategies for adapting risk management practice to climate changes requires knowledge of the related risks for people and economic values. The main goals of this work were (1) the development of a method for analysing and comparing risks induced by different natural hazard types, (2) highlighting the most relevant natural hazard processes and related damages, (3) the development of an information system for the monitoring of the temporal development of natural hazard risk and (4) the visualisation of the resulting information for the wider public. A comparative exposure analysis provides the basis for pointing out the hot spots of natural hazard risks in the province of Carinthia, Austria. An analysis of flood risks in all municipalities provides the basis for setting the priorities in the planning of flood protection measures. The methods form the basis for a monitoring system that periodically observes the temporal development of natural hazard risks. This makes it possible firstly to identify situations in which natural hazard risks are rising and secondly to differentiate between the most relevant factors responsible for the increasing risks. The factors that most influence the natural risks could be made evident.

Managing Debris Flow Risks

Debris flows represent a widespread threat to villages and small towns in the Swiss Alps. For many centuries people “managed” such risks by trying to avoid hazardous areas. However, major debris flow and flood events in the last 25 years have revealed that the degree of freedom to engage in this type of risk management has substantially decreased. This became especially evident during the 1999 disasters in a number of places in Switzerland. The winter of that year was unusually wet. In February heavy snowfall triggered destructive avalanches. In May high temperatures caused heavy snowmelt, with excessive rainfall contributing more water to the already saturated soils. Landslides, debris flows and floods were triggered in many locations, including Sörenberg. Hazard prevention and disaster management have a long tradition in Switzerland, although an integrated approach to risk management is rather new. Only in recent years have methods and tools been developed to assess hazards, define protection goals, and implement disaster reduction measures. The case of Sörenberg serves as an example of how today's approaches to disaster reduction are implemented at the local level.

Benefits and Risks of Extended Duration Dual Antiplatelet Therapy After PCI in Patients With and Without Acute Myocardial Infarction

BACKGROUND The benefits and risks of prolonged dual antiplatelet therapy may be different for patients with acute myocardial infarction (MI) compared with more stable presentations. OBJECTIVES This study sought to assess the benefits and risks of 30 versus 12 months of dual antiplatelet therapy among patients undergoing coronary stent implantation with and without MI. METHODS The Dual Antiplatelet Therapy Study, a randomized double-blind, placebo-controlled trial, compared 30 versus 12 months of dual antiplatelet therapy after coronary stenting. The effect of continued thienopyridine on ischemic and bleeding events among patients initially presenting with versus without MI was assessed. The coprimary endpoints were definite or probable stent thrombosis and major adverse cardiovascular and cerebrovascular events (MACCE). The primary safety endpoint was GUSTO (Global Utilization of Streptokinase and Tissue Plasminogen Activator for Occluded Arteries) moderate or severe bleeding. RESULTS Of 11,648 randomized patients (9,961 treated with drug-eluting stents, 1,687 with bare-metal stents), 30.7% presented with MI. Between 12 and 30 months, continued thienopyridine reduced stent thrombosis compared with placebo in patients with and without MI at presentation (MI group, 0.5% vs. 1.9%, p < 0.001; no MI group, 0.4% vs. 1.1%, p < 0.001; interaction p = 0.69). The reduction in MACCE for continued thienopyridine was greater for patients with MI (3.9% vs. 6.8%; p < 0.001) compared with those with no MI (4.4% vs. 5.3%; p = 0.08; interaction p = 0.03). In both groups, continued thienopyridine reduced MI (2.2% vs. 5.2%, p < 0.001 for MI; 2.1% vs. 3.5%, p < 0.001 for no MI; interaction p = 0.15) but increased bleeding (1.9% vs. 0.8%, p = 0.005 for MI; 2.6% vs. 1.7%, p = 0.007 for no MI; interaction p = 0.21). CONCLUSIONS Compared with 12 months of therapy, 30 months of dual antiplatelet therapy reduced the risk of stent thrombosis and MI in patients with and without MI, and increased bleeding. (The Dual Antiplatelet Therapy Study [The DAPT Study]; NCT00977938).

Description of the SAGhE Cohort: A Large European Study of Mortality and Cancer Incidence Risks after Childhood Treatment with Recombinant Growth Hormone.

BACKGROUND The long-term safety of growth hormone treatment is uncertain. Raised risks of death and certain cancers have been reported inconsistently, based on limited data or short-term follow-up by pharmaceutical companies. PATIENTS AND METHODS The SAGhE (Safety and Appropriateness of Growth Hormone Treatments in Europe) study assembled cohorts of patients treated in childhood with recombinant human growth hormone (r-hGH) in 8 European countries since the first use of this treatment in 1984 and followed them for cause-specific mortality and cancer incidence. Expected rates were obtained from national and local general population data. The cohort consisted of 24,232 patients, most commonly treated for isolated growth failure (53%), Turner syndrome (13%) and growth hormone deficiency linked to neoplasia (12%). This paper describes in detail the study design, methods and data collection and discusses the strengths, biases and weaknesses consequent on this. CONCLUSION The SAGhE cohort is the largest and longest follow-up cohort study of growth hormone-treated patients with follow-up and analysis independent of industry. It forms a major resource for investigating cancer and mortality risks in r-hGH patients. The interpretation of SAGhE results, however, will need to take account of the methods of cohort assembly and follow-up in each country.

Thrombosis during pregnancy: Risks, prevention, and treatment for mother and fetus--harvesting the power of omic technology, biomarkers and in vitro or in vivo models to facilitate the treatment of thrombosis

Maternal thromboembolism and a spectrum of placenta-mediated complications including the pre-eclampsia syndromes, fetal growth restriction, fetal loss, and abruption manifest a shared etiopathogenesis and predisposing risk factors. Furthermore, these maternal and fetal complications are often linked to subsequent maternal health consequences that comprise the metabolic syndrome, namely, thromboembolism, chronic hypertension, and type II diabetes. Traditionally, several lines of evidence have linked vasoconstriction, excessive thrombosis and inflammation, and impaired trophoblast invasion at the uteroplacental interface as hallmark features of the placental complications. "Omic" technologies and biomarker development have been largely based upon advances in vascular biology, improved understanding of the molecular basis and biochemical pathways responsible for the clinically relevant diseases, and increasingly robust large cohort and/or registry based studies. Advances in understanding of innate and adaptive immunity appear to play an important role in several pregnancy complications. Strategies aimed at improving prediction of these pregnancy complications are often incorporating hemodynamic blood flow data using non-invasive imaging technologies of the utero-placental and maternal circulations early in pregnancy. Some evidence suggests that a multiple marker approach will yield the best performing prediction tools, which may then in turn offer the possibility of early intervention to prevent or ameliorate these pregnancy complications. Prediction of maternal cardiovascular and non-cardiovascular consequences following pregnancy represents an important area of future research, which may have significant public health consequences not only for cardiovascular disease, but also for a variety of other disorders, such as autoimmune and neurodegenerative diseases.

Internet-based self-help for schizophrenia – risks and chances

Purpose: Schizophrenia is a severe mental disorder which is accompanied by an enormous individual and societal burden. Despite established efficacy of cognitive behavioral therapy (CBT) for schizophrenia, its dissemination into routine mental health care remains poor. Internet-based cognitive behavioral therapy in a self-help format helps to narrow the treatment gap in many mental disorders. Are Internet-based self-help programs, which are based on the principles of CBT, also feasible and viable for patients with schizophrenia? Methods: Mental health professionals (target N=50) as well as individuals with schizophrenia spectrum disorders (target N=50) reported their opinion regarding potential chances and risks of Internet-based self-help for schizophrenia in an online survey. Results: The preliminary data analysis of n=30 health professionals revealed a general acceptance of Internet-based programs for schizophrenia (53% acceptable, 47% acceptable after empirical evaluation) and specific contraindications (e.g., severe psychotic symptoms; 73%). People with schizophrenia highlighted the attractiveness of self-help interventions due to a wish for empowerment and for opportunities to strengthen self-efficacy. Conclusions: Risks, limitations and chances of Internet-based programs for patients with schizophrenia will be discussed.

A Question of Title: Property Rights and Asset Values

This paper examines the impact of land title systems on property values. The predominant system in the U.S., the recording system, awards title to claimants over current possessors, whereas the Torrens registration system awards title to the current owner. In theory, the registration system maximizes property value, all else equal, but in practice, the systems differ depending on the risk of a claim and administrative costs. A natural experiment in Cook County, Illinois, where both systems have existed since 1897, allows a test of the theory. The results, based on commercial and industrial properties, reveal that parcels tend to self-select into the two systems based on the predictions of the theory.

The Effects of Credit Risk on Dynamic Portfolio Management: A New Computational Approach

The study investigates the role of credit risk in a continuous time stochastic asset allocation model, since the traditional dynamic framework does not provide credit risk flexibility. The general model of the study extends the traditional dynamic efficiency framework by explicitly deriving the optimal value function for the infinite horizon stochastic control problem via a weighted volatility measure of market and credit risk. The model's optimal strategy was then compared to that obtained from a benchmark Markowitz-type dynamic optimization framework to determine which specification adequately reflects the optimal terminal investment returns and strategy under credit and market risks. The paper shows that an investor's optimal terminal return is lower than typically indicated under the traditional mean-variance framework during periods of elevated credit risk. Hence I conclude that, while the traditional dynamic mean-variance approach may indicate the ideal, in the presence of credit-risk it does not accurately reflect the observed optimal returns, terminal wealth and portfolio selection strategies.

International Transfer Pricing for Goods and Intangible Asset Licenses in a Decentralized Multinational Corporation: Review and Extensions

We review and extend the core literature on international transfer price manipulation to avoid or evade taxes. Under negotiated transfer pricing with a viable bargaining structure, including performance evaluation disconnected from the transfer price, divisions voluntarily exchange accurate information to obtain firm-wide optimality, a result not dependent on restraint from exercising internal market power. For intangible licenses, a larger optimal profit shift for a given tax rate change strengthens incentives for transfer pricing abuse. In practice, an intangible's arm's length range is viewed as a guideline, a context where incentives for abuse materialize. Transfer pricing for intangibles obliges greater tax authority scrutiny.

Proton therapy versus intensity modulated x-ray therapy in the treatment of prostate cancer: Estimating secondary cancer risks

External beam radiation therapy is used to treat nearly half of the more than 200,000 new cases of prostate cancer diagnosed in the United States each year. During a radiation therapy treatment, healthy tissues in the path of the therapeutic beam are exposed to high doses. In addition, the whole body is exposed to a low-dose bath of unwanted scatter radiation from the pelvis and leakage radiation from the treatment unit. As a result, survivors of radiation therapy for prostate cancer face an elevated risk of developing a radiogenic second cancer. Recently, proton therapy has been shown to reduce the dose delivered by the therapeutic beam to normal tissues during treatment compared to intensity modulated x-ray therapy (IMXT, the current standard of care). However, the magnitude of stray radiation doses from proton therapy, and their impact on this incidence of radiogenic second cancers, was not known. ^ The risk of a radiogenic second cancer following proton therapy for prostate cancer relative to IMXT was determined for 3 patients of large, median, and small anatomical stature. Doses delivered to healthy tissues from the therapeutic beam were obtained from treatment planning system calculations. Stray doses from IMXT were taken from the literature, while stray doses from proton therapy were simulated using a Monte Carlo model of a passive scattering treatment unit and an anthropomorphic phantom. Baseline risk models were taken from the Biological Effects of Ionizing Radiation VII report. A sensitivity analysis was conducted to characterize the uncertainty of risk calculations to uncertainties in the risk model, the relative biological effectiveness (RBE) of neutrons for carcinogenesis, and inter-patient anatomical variations. ^ The risk projections revealed that proton therapy carries a lower risk for radiogenic second cancer incidence following prostate irradiation compared to IMXT. The sensitivity analysis revealed that the results of the risk analysis depended only weakly on uncertainties in the risk model and inter-patient variations. Second cancer risks were sensitive to changes in the RBE of neutrons. However, the findings of the study were qualitatively consistent for all patient sizes and risk models considered, and for all neutron RBE values less than 100. ^

The prevalence, health risks, and consequences of asthma among adult residents in Texas

Based on asthma prevalence data collected from the 2000 BRFSS survey, approximately 14.7 million U.S. adults had current asthma, accounting for 7.2% of the total U.S. population. In Texas alone, state data extrapolated from the 1999-2003 Texas BRFSS suggested that approximately 1 million Texas adults were reporting current asthma and approximately 11% of the adult population has been diagnosed with the illness during their lifetime. From a public health perspective, the disease is manageable. Comprehensive state-specific asthma surveillance data are necessary to identify disparities in asthma prevalence and asthma-control characteristics among subpopulations and to develop targeted public health interventions. The purpose of this study was to determine the relative importance of various risk factors of asthma and to examine the impact of asthma on health-related quality of life among adult residents of Texas. ^ The study employed a cross-sectional study of respondents in Texas. The study extracted all the variables related to asthma along with their associated demographic, socioeconomic, and quality of life variables from the 2007 BRFSS data for 17,248 adult residents of Texas aged 18 and older. Chi-square test and logistic regression using SPSS were used in various data analyses on weighted data, adjusting for the complex sample design of the BRFSS data. All chi-square analyses were carried out using SPSS's CSTABULATE command. In addition, logistic regression models were fitted using SPSS's CSLOGISTIC command. ^ Risks factors significantly associated with reporting current asthma included BMI, race/ethnicity, gender, and income. Holding all other variables constant, obese adults were almost twice as likely to report current asthma as those adults who were normal weight (odds ratio [OR], 1.78; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.25 to 2.53). Other non-Hispanic adults were significantly more likely to report current asthma than non-Hispanic Whites (OR, 2.43; 95% CI, 1.38 to 4.25), while Hispanics were significantly less likely to report current asthma than non-Hispanic Whites (OR, 0.38; 95% CI, 0.25 to 0.60), after controlling for all other variables. After adjusting for all other variables, adult females were almost twice as likely to report current asthma as males (OR, 1.97; 95% CI, 1.49 to 2.60). Adults with household income of less than $15,000 were almost twice as likely to report current asthma as those persons with an annual household income of $50,000 or more (OR, 1.98; 95% CI, 1.33 to 2.94). In regards to the association between asthma and health-related quality of life, after adjusting for age, race/ethnicity, gender, tobacco use, body mass index (BMI), exercise, education, and income, adults with current asthma compared to those without asthma were more likely to report having more than 15 days of unhealthy physical health (OR, 1.84; 95% CI, 1.29 to 2.60). ^ Overall, the findings of this study provide insight and valuable information into the populations in Texas most adversely affected by asthma and health-related consequences of the disease condition. Further research could build on the findings of this study by replicating this study as closely as possible in other asthma settings, and look at the relationship for hospitalization rates, asthma severity, and mortality.^