The TIGGE project and its achievements

TIGGE was a major component of the THORPEX (The Observing System Research and Predictability Experiment) research program, whose aim is to accelerate improvements in forecasting high-impact weather. By providing ensemble prediction data from leading operational forecast centers, TIGGE has enhanced collaboration between the research and operational meteorological communities and enabled research studies on a wide range of topics. The paper covers the objective evaluation of the TIGGE data. For a range of forecast parameters, it is shown to be beneficial to combine ensembles from several data providers in a Multi-model Grand Ensemble. Alternative methods to correct systematic errors, including the use of reforecast data, are also discussed. TIGGE data have been used for a range of research studies on predictability and dynamical processes. Tropical cyclones are the most destructive weather systems in the world, and are a focus of multi-model ensemble research. Their extra-tropical transition also has a major impact on skill of mid-latitude forecasts. We also review how TIGGE has added to our understanding of the dynamics of extra-tropical cyclones and storm tracks. Although TIGGE is a research project, it has proved invaluable for the development of products for future operational forecasting. Examples include the forecasting of tropical cyclone tracks, heavy rainfall, strong winds, and flood prediction through coupling hydrological models to ensembles. Finally the paper considers the legacy of TIGGE. We discuss the priorities and key issues in predictability and ensemble forecasting, including the new opportunities of convective-scale ensembles, links with ensemble data assimilation methods, and extension of the range of useful forecast skill.

Evaluation of moisture sources for the Central European summer flood of May/June 2013 based on regional climate model simulations

Heavy precipitation affected Central Europe in May/June 2013, triggering damaging floods both on the Danube and the Elbe rivers. Based on a modelling approach with COSMO-CLM, moisture fluxes, backward trajectories, cyclone tracks and precipitation fields are evaluated for the relevant time period 30 May–2 June 2013. We identify potential moisture sources and quantify their contribution to the flood event focusing on the Danube basin through sensitivity experiments: Control simulations are performed with undisturbed ERA-Interim boundary conditions, while multiple sensitivity experiments are driven with modified evaporation characteristics over selected marine and land areas. Two relevant cyclones are identified both in reanalysis and in our simulations, which moved counter-clockwise in a retrograde path from Southeastern Europe over Eastern Europe towards the northern slopes of the Alps. The control simulations represent the synoptic evolution of the event reasonably well. The evolution of the precipitation event in the control simulations shows some differences in terms of its spatial and temporal characteristics compared to observations. The main precipitation event can be separated into two phases concerning the moisture sources. Our modelling results provide evidence that the two main sources contributing to the event were the continental evapotranspiration (moisture recycling; both phases) and the North Atlantic Ocean (first phase only). The Mediterranean Sea played only a minor role as a moisture source. This study confirms the importance of continental moisture recycling for heavy precipitation events over Central Europe during the summer half year.

Tracing client interests in the course of a project: why are some client interests incorporated whereas others are not?

Many construction professionals and policy-makers would agree that client expectations should be accommodated during a building project. However, this aspiration is not easy to deal with as there may be conflicting interests within a client organization and these may change over time in the course of a project. This research asks why some client interests, and not others, are incorporated into the development of a building project. Actor-Network Theory (ANT) is used to study a single building project on a University campus. The building project is analysed as a number of discussions and negotiations, in which actors persuade each other to choose one solution over another. The analysis traces dynamic client engagement in decision-making processes as available options became increasingly constrained. However, this relative loss of control was countered by clients who continued the control over the timing of participants' involvement, and thus the way to impose their interests even at the later stage of the project.

Modified section method for laser-welding of ill-fitting cp Ti and Ni-Cr alloy one-piece cast implant-supported frameworks

P>This study aimed to verify the effect of modified section method and laser-welding on the accuracy of fit of ill-fitting commercially pure titanium (cp Ti) and Ni-Cr alloy one-piece cast frameworks. Two sets of similar implant-supported frameworks were constructed. Both groups of six 3-unit implant-supported fixed partial dentures were cast as one-piece [I: Ni-Cr (control) and II: cp Ti] and evaluated for passive fitting in an optical microscope with both screws tightened and with only one screw tightened. All frameworks were then sectioned in the diagonal axis at the pontic region (III: Ni-Cr and IV: cp Ti). Sectioned frameworks were positioned in the matrix (10-Ncm torque) and laser-welded. Passive fitting was evaluated for the second time. Data were submitted to anova and Tukey-Kramer honestly significant difference tests (P < 0 center dot 05). With both screws tightened, one-piece cp Ti group II showed significantly higher misfit values (27 center dot 57 +/- 5 center dot 06 mu m) than other groups (I: 11 center dot 19 +/- 2 center dot 54 mu m, III: 12 center dot 88 +/- 2 center dot 93 mu m, IV: 13 center dot 77 +/- 1 center dot 51 mu m) (P < 0 center dot 05). In the single-screw-tightened test, with readings on the opposite side to the tightened side, Ni-Cr cast as one-piece (I: 58 center dot 66 +/- 14 center dot 30 mu m) was significantly different from cp Ti group after diagonal section (IV: 27 center dot 51 +/- 8 center dot 28 mu m) (P < 0 center dot 05). On the tightened side, no significant differences were found between groups (P > 0 center dot 05). Results showed that diagonally sectioning ill-fitting cp Ti frameworks lowers misfit levels of prosthetic implant-supported frameworks and also improves passivity levels of the same frameworks when compared to one-piece cast structures.

Recurrent sores by ill-fitting dentures and intra-oral squamous cell carcinoma in smokers

Objectives: To examine whether denture use and recurrent sores caused by ill-fitting dentures are associated with intra-oral squamous cell carcinoma (IO-SCC) in individuals exposed to tobacco. Methods: We conducted a hospital-based case-control study. The study population comprised 124 patients with IO-SCC and the same number of controls (individually paired according to gender and age) recruited from outpatient units of the same hospital. Conditional logistic regression analysis assessed the effect of denture use and recurrent oral sores by ill-fitting dentures, adjusted by covariates on the lifetime exposure to alcohol and tobacco, socioeconomic standings, and dietary patterns. Results: The use of dentures showed no association with IO-SCC [adjusted odds ratio (OR) 1.40, 95 percent confidence interval 0.51-3.87, P = 0.513] in an assessment controlled by socioeconomic position, lifetime exposure to alcohol and tobacco, and dietary patterns. However, the report of recurrent sores caused by ill-fitting dentures showed significant association with the disease (adjusted OR 4.58, 95 percent confidence interval 1.52-13.76, P = 0.007). Conclusions: The association between recurrent oral sores caused by ill-fitting dentures and squamous cell carcinoma of the mouth in smokers is in agreement with the hypothesis that the chronic physical irritation of oral mucosa contributes to the topical carcinogenic effect of tobacco, which must be taken into careful consideration in the planning of dental services for adults and the elderly.

Forebrain projections to brainstem nuclei involved in the control of mandibular movements in rats

Mandibular movements occur through the triggering of trigeminal motoneurons. Aberrant movements by orofacial muscles are characteristic of orofacial motor disorders, such as nocturnal bruxism (clenching or grinding of the dentition during sleep). Previous studies have suggested that autonomic changes occur during bruxism episodes. Although it is known that emotional responses increase jaw movement, the brain pathways linking forebrain limbic nuclei and the trigeminal motor nucleus remain unclear. Here we show that neurons in the lateral hypothalamic area, in the central nucleus of the amygdala, and in the parasubthalamic nucleus, project to the trigeminal motor nucleus or to reticular regions around the motor nucleus (Regio h) and in the mesencephalic trigeminal nucleus. We observed orexin co-expression in neurons projecting from the lateral hypothalamic area to the trigeminal motor nucleus. In the central nucleus of the amygdala, neurons projecting to the trigeminal motor nucleus are innervated by corticotrophin-releasing factor immunoreactive fibers. We also observed that the mesencephalic trigeminal nucleus receives dense innervation from orexin and corticotrophin-releasing factor immunoreactive fibers. Therefore, forebrain nuclei related to autonomic control and stress responses might influence the activity of trigeminal motor neurons and consequently play a role in the physiopathology of nocturnal bruxism.

Vanadium Pentoxide Nanostructures: An Effective Control of Morphology and Crystal Structure in Hydrothermal Conditions

A systematic study was made of the synthesis of V(2)O(5)center dot nH(2)O nanostructures, whose morphologies, crystal structure, and amount of water molecules between the layered structures were regulated by strictly controlling the hydrothermal treatment variables. The synthesis involved a direct hydrothermal reaction between V(2)O(5) and H(2)O(2), without the addition of organic surfactant or inorganic ions. The experimental results indicate that high purity nanostructures can be obtained using this simple and clean synthetic route. Oil the basis of a study of hydrothermal treatment variables such as reaction temperature and time, X-ray diffraction (XRD) and scanning transmission electron microscopy (STEM) revealed that it was possible to obtain nanoribbons of the V(2)O(5)center dot nH(2)O monoclinic phase and nanowires or nanorods of the V(2)O(5)center dot nH(2)O orthorhombic phase. Thermal gravimetric analysis (TGA) shows also that the water content in the Structure call be controlled at appropriate hydrothermal conditions. Concerning the oxidation state of the vanadium atoms of as-obtained samples, a mixed-valence state composed of V(4+) and V(5+) was observed ill the V(2)O(5)center dot nH(2)O monoclinic phase, while the valence of the vanadium atoms was preferentially 5+ in the V(2)O(5)center dot nH(2)O orthorhombic phase. The X-ray absorption near-edge structure (XANES) results also indicated that the local structure of vanadium possessed a higher degree of symmetry in the V(2)O(5)center dot nH(2)O monoclinic phase.

Alphanumeric LCD infrared control via computer’s parallel port

The present work will explain a method to achieve a remote controlled (via IR LED) alphanumeric Liquid Crystal Display. In modern times, the remote access of different devices has become quite popular, therefore, the aim of this project is to provide a useful tool that will integrate common and easy to access devices. The system includes a C language based user interface, an assembly language code for the AT89C51ED2 microcontroller instructions and some digital electronic circuits needed for the driving and control of both the LCD and the infrared communication, as well as the PC with a parallel port. The interaction of all the devices provides a whole system that can be helpful in different applications, or it can be separated into each one of its different stages to take the best advantage as possible.

Dynamic Fuzzy Logic Control of GeneticAlgorithm Probabilities

Genetic algorithms are commonly used to solve combinatorial optimizationproblems. The implementation evolves using genetic operators (crossover, mutation,selection, etc.). Anyway, genetic algorithms like some other methods have parameters(population size, probabilities of crossover and mutation) which need to be tune orchosen.In this paper, our project is based on an existing hybrid genetic algorithmworking on the multiprocessor scheduling problem. We propose a hybrid Fuzzy-Genetic Algorithm (FLGA) approach to solve the multiprocessor scheduling problem.The algorithm consists in adding a fuzzy logic controller to control and tunedynamically different parameters (probabilities of crossover and mutation), in anattempt to improve the algorithm performance. For this purpose, we will design afuzzy logic controller based on fuzzy rules to control the probabilities of crossoverand mutation. Compared with the Standard Genetic Algorithm (SGA), the resultsclearly demonstrate that the FLGA method performs significantly better.

Design Management för Remote Control Sweden AB

This Degree Project is a cooperativ work with the advertising agency PAX in Falun and the industrial companyRemote Control, who constructs and sells actuators for the global market.The assignment concerns bringing out a graphic profile, or with another expression a Design Management, forRemote Control AB graphic materials. Remote Control AB has a quality certification ISO 9000 and is workingwith, when this report was wrote, an environment certification ISO 14001.The Company has been paid attention to Internet and other media.The supervisors are familiar to that Design Management is a soon coming competition element, like quality andenvironment management.This Degree project contains research, analysis and the construction of graphic material. The research has beencommitted most of the time to trace the customer, the market and the competitor, because its the most importantphase. It’s also important looking at competitor’s way of working with marketing management, so you can separatethem from the own company.

INVENTORY CONTROL SYSTEM : Optimization of production system and reliability

The main idea of this research to solve the problem of inventory management for the paper industry SPM PVT limited. The aim of this research was to find a methodology by which the inventory of raw material could be kept at minimum level by means of buffer stock level.The main objective then lies in finding the minimum level of buffer stock according to daily consumption of raw material, finding the Economic Order Quantity (EOQ) reorders point and how much order will be placed in a year to control the shortage of raw material.In this project, we discuss continuous review model (Deterministic EOQ models) that includes the probabilistic demand directly in the formulation. According to the formula, we see the reorder point and the order up to model. The problem was tackled mathematically as well as simulation modeling was used where mathematically tractable solution was not possible.The simulation modeling was done by Awesim software for developing the simulation network. This simulation network has the ability to predict the buffer stock level based on variable consumption of raw material and lead-time. The data collection for this simulation network is taken from the industrial engineering personnel and the departmental studies of the concerned factory. At the end, we find the optimum level of order quantity, reorder point and order days.

On Real-Time Monitoring And Control For Efficient Management Of Drinking Water Networks: Barcelona Case Study

Drinking water utilities in urban areas are focused on finding smart solutions facing new challenges in their real-time operation because of limited water resources, intensive energy requirements, a growing population, a costly and ageing infrastructure, increasingly stringent regulations, and increased attention towards the environmental impact of water use. Such challenges force water managers to monitor and control not only water supply and distribution, but also consumer demand. This paper presents and discusses novel methodologies and procedures towards an integrated water resource management system based on advanced ICT technologies of automation and telecommunications for largely improving the efficiency of drinking water networks (DWN) in terms of water use, energy consumption, water loss minimization, and water quality guarantees. In particular, the paper addresses the first results of the European project EFFINET (FP7-ICT2011-8-318556) devoted to the monitoring and control of the DWN in Barcelona (Spain). Results are split in two levels according to different management objectives: (i) the monitoring level is concerned with all the aspects involved in the observation of the current state of a system and the detection/diagnosis of abnormal situations. It is achieved through sensors and communications technology, together with mathematical models; (ii) the control level is concerned with computing the best suitable and admissible control strategies for network actuators as to optimize a given set of operational goals related to the performance of the overall system. This level covers the network control (optimal management of water and energy) and the demand management (smart metering, efficient supply). The consideration of the Barcelona DWN as the case study will allow to prove the general applicability of the proposed integrated ICT solutions and their effectiveness in the management of DWN, with considerable savings of electricity costs and reduced water loss while ensuring the high European standards of water quality to citizens.

SESAME: Finding Ways Of Promoting SME Adaptation To Flood Risk

Small and medium-sized companies and other enterprises (SMEs) around the world are exposed to flood risk and many of the 4.5 million in the UK are at risk. As SMEs represent almost half of total business turnover in the UK, their protection is a vital part of the drive for greater climate change resilience. However, few have measures in place to ensure the continuity of their activities during a flood and its aftermath. The SESAME project aims to develop tools that encourage businesses to discover ways of becoming more resilient to floods and to appreciate how much better off they will be once they have adapted to the ongoing risk. By taking some of the mystery out of flooding and flood risk, it aims to make it susceptible to the same business acumen that enables the UK’s SMEs to deal with the many other challenges they face. In this paper we will report on the different aspects of the research in the project Understanding behaviour Changing behaviour Modelling impacts Economic impacts Through the above the project will advise government, local authorities and other public bodies on how to improve their responses to floods and will enable them to recommend ways to improve the guidelines provided to SMEs in flood risk areas.

Real-Time Flood Forecasting Systems In Flanders

As a highly urbanized and flood prone region, Flanders has experienced multiple floods causing significant damage in the past. In response to the floods of 1998 and 2002 the Flemish Environment Agency, responsible for managing 1 400 km of unnavigable rivers, started setting up a real time flood forecasting system in 2003. Currently the system covers almost 2 000 km of unnavigable rivers, for which flood forecasts are accessible online (www.waterinfo.be). The forecasting system comprises more than 1 000 hydrologic and 50 hydrodynamic models which are supplied with radar rainfall, rainfall forecasts and on-site observations. Forecasts for the next 2 days are generated hourly, while 10 day forecasts are generated twice a day. Additionally, twice daily simulations based on percentile rainfall forecasts (from EPS predictions) result in uncertainty bands for the latter. Subsequent flood forecasts use the most recent rainfall predictions and observed parameters at any time while uncertainty on the longer-term is taken into account. The flood forecasting system produces high resolution dynamic flood maps and graphs at about 200 river gauges and more than 3 000 forecast points. A customized emergency response system generates phone calls and text messages to a team of hydrologists initiating a pro-active response to prevent upcoming flood damage. The flood forecasting system of the Flemish Environment Agency is constantly evolving and has proven to be an indispensable tool in flood crisis management. This was clearly the case during the November 2010 floods, when the agency issued a press release 2 days in advance allowing water managers, emergency services and civilians to take measures.

Model Prediction Control For Water Management Using Adaptive Prediction Accuracy

In the field of operational water management, Model Predictive Control (MPC) has gained popularity owing to its versatility and flexibility. The MPC controller, which takes predictions, time delay and uncertainties into account, can be designed for multi-objective management problems and for large-scale systems. Nonetheless, a critical obstacle, which needs to be overcome in MPC, is the large computational burden when a large-scale system is considered or a long prediction horizon is involved. In order to solve this problem, we use an adaptive prediction accuracy (APA) approach that can reduce the computational burden almost by half. The proposed MPC scheme with this scheme is tested on the northern Dutch water system, which comprises Lake IJssel, Lake Marker, the River IJssel and the North Sea Canal. The simulation results show that by using the MPC-APA scheme, the computational time can be reduced to a large extent and a flood protection problem over longer prediction horizons can be well solved.