Climatic impacts of land-use change due to crop yield increases and a universal carbon tax from a scenario model*

Future land cover will have a significant impact on climate and is strongly influenced by the extent of agricultural land use. Differing assumptions of crop yield increase and carbon pricing mitigation strategies affect projected expansion of agricultural land in future scenarios. In the representative concentration pathway 4.5 (RCP4.5) from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5), the carbon effects of these land cover changes are included, although the biogeophysical effects are not. The afforestation in RCP4.5 has important biogeophysical impacts on climate, in addition to the land carbon changes, which are directly related to the assumption of crop yield increase and the universal carbon tax. To investigate the biogeophysical climatic impact of combinations of agricultural crop yield increases and carbon pricing mitigation, five scenarios of land-use change based on RCP4.5 are used as inputs to an earth system model [Hadley Centre Global Environment Model, version 2-Earth System (HadGEM2-ES)]. In the scenario with the greatest increase in agricultural land (as a result of no increase in crop yield and no climate mitigation) there is a significant -0.49 K worldwide cooling by 2100 compared to a control scenario with no land-use change. Regional cooling is up to -2.2 K annually in northeastern Asia. Including carbon feedbacks from the land-use change gives a small global cooling of -0.067 K. This work shows that there are significant impacts from biogeophysical land-use changes caused by assumptions of crop yield and carbon mitigation, which mean that land carbon is not the whole story. It also elucidates the potential conflict between cooling from biogeophysical climate effects of land-use change and wider environmental aims.

IFRS for SMEs: the IASB’S due process

This study explores the role of the International Accounting Standards Board’s (IASB) due process in developing its International Financial Reporting Standards for Small and Medium-sized Entities (IFRS or SMEs)standard. There were tensions between the IASB’s desire to minimise divergence from full IFRS and preserve recognition and measurement principles, and the primary reasons for undertaking the project – to meet the needs of users of financial statements of SMEs and to reduce the financial reporting burden on SMEs. Examination of events during the development of the project reveals much that was not apparent from material in the public domain. Most significantly, the IASB recognised that the final title of the standard, IFRS for SMEs, does not necessarily describe the scope of the standard. This paper also shows that the due process followed in the case of the IFRS for SMEs project barely reflected the ‘will of people’ but was more inclined towards acting as a communicative function for the IASB without any commitment to change its stance on the SME standard.

Liquidity and the drivers of search, due diligence and transaction times for UK commercial real estate investments

Trading commercial real estate involves a process of exchange that is costly and which occurs over an extended and uncertain period of time. This has consequences for the performance and risk of real estate investments. Most research on transaction times has occurred for residential rather than commercial real estate. We study the time taken to transact commercial real estate assets in the UK using a sample of 578 transactions over the period 2004 to 2013. We measure average time to transact from a buyer and seller perspective, distinguishing the search and due diligence phases of the process, and we conduct econometric analysis to explain variation in due diligence times between assets. The median time for purchase of real estate from introduction to completion was 104 days and the median time for sale from marketing to completion was 135 days. There is considerable variation around these times and results suggest that some of this variation is related to market state, type and quality of asset, and type of participants involved in the transaction. Our findings shed light on the drivers of liquidity at an individual asset level and can inform models that quantify the impact of uncertain time on market on real estate investment risk.

Increasing frequency of extreme El Niño events due to greenhouse warming

El Niño events are a prominent feature of climate variability with global climatic impacts. The 1997/98 episode, often referred to as ‘the climate event of the twentieth century’1, 2, and the 1982/83 extreme El Niño3, featured a pronounced eastward extension of the west Pacific warm pool and development of atmospheric convection, and hence a huge rainfall increase, in the usually cold and dry equatorial eastern Pacific. Such a massive reorganization of atmospheric convection, which we define as an extreme El Niño, severely disrupted global weather patterns, affecting ecosystems4, 5, agriculture6, tropical cyclones, drought, bushfires, floods and other extreme weather events worldwide3, 7, 8, 9. Potential future changes in such extreme El Niño occurrences could have profound socio-economic consequences. Here we present climate modelling evidence for a doubling in the occurrences in the future in response to greenhouse warming. We estimate the change by aggregating results from climate models in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phases 3 (CMIP3; ref. 10) and 5 (CMIP5; ref. 11) multi-model databases, and a perturbed physics ensemble12. The increased frequency arises from a projected surface warming over the eastern equatorial Pacific that occurs faster than in the surrounding ocean waters13, 14, facilitating more occurrences of atmospheric convection in the eastern equatorial region.

Small global-mean cooling due to volcanic radiative forcing

In both the observational record and atmosphere-ocean general circulation model (AOGCM) simulations of the last ∼∼ 150 years, short-lived negative radiative forcing due to volcanic aerosol, following explosive eruptions, causes sudden global-mean cooling of up to ∼∼ 0.3 K. This is about five times smaller than expected from the transient climate response parameter (TCRP, K of global-mean surface air temperature change per W m−2 of radiative forcing increase) evaluated under atmospheric CO2 concentration increasing at 1 % yr−1. Using the step model (Good et al. in Geophys Res Lett 38:L01703, 2011. doi:10.​1029/​2010GL045208), we confirm the previous finding (Held et al. in J Clim 23:2418–2427, 2010. doi:10.​1175/​2009JCLI3466.​1) that the main reason for the discrepancy is the damping of the response to short-lived forcing by the thermal inertia of the upper ocean. Although the step model includes this effect, it still overestimates the volcanic cooling simulated by AOGCMs by about 60 %. We show that this remaining discrepancy can be explained by the magnitude of the volcanic forcing, which may be smaller in AOGCMs (by 30 % for the HadCM3 AOGCM) than in off-line calculations that do not account for rapid cloud adjustment, and the climate sensitivity parameter, which may be smaller than for increasing CO2 (40 % smaller than for 4 × CO2 in HadCM3).

The longitudinal variation of equatorial waves due to propagation on a varying zonal flow

The general 1-D theory of waves propagating on a zonally varying flow is developed from basic wave theory, and equations are derived for the variation of wavenumber and energy along ray paths. Different categories of behaviour are found, depending on the sign of the group velocity (cg) and a wave property, B. For B positive the wave energy and the wave number vary in the same sense, with maxima in relative easterlies or westerlies, depending on the sign of cg. Also the wave accumulation of Webster and Chang (1988) occurs where cg goes to zero. However for B negative they behave in opposite senses and wave accumulation does not occur. The zonal propagation of the gravest equatorial waves is analysed in detail using the theory. For non-dispersive Kelvin waves, B reduces to 2, and analytic solution is possible. B is positive for all the waves considered, except for the westward moving mixed Rossby-gravity (WMRG) wave which can have negative as well as positive B. Comparison is made between the observed climatologies of the individual equatorial waves and the result of pure propagation on the climatological upper tropospheric flow. The Kelvin wave distribution is in remarkable agreement, considering the approximations made. Some aspects of the WMRG and Rossby wave distributions are also in qualitative agreement. However the observed maxima in these waves in the winter westerlies in the eastern Pacific and Atlantic are not consistent with the theory. This is consistent with the importance of the sources of equatorial waves in these westerly duct regions due to higher latitude wave activity.

Information for the diagnosis and treatment of root resorption due to tooth replantation

A favorable prognosis after tooth avulsion depends on some variables, such as the extra-alveolar period and storage medium. Vitality of the periodontal ligament cells is considered a critical factor for a successful outcome without root resorption. The dental surgeon is provided with clinical information and radiographic findings to establish a diagnosis and may rely on current available guidelines. Once trauma has occurred, treatment must be quick and effective, and periodic follow-up must be performed. Clinical, radiographic, and histologic characteristics for each type of root resorption due to tooth replantation are presented, with the aim to provide information for the diagnosis and treatment of healing complications.

Validation of an ELISA method for the serological diagnosis of canine brucellosis due to Brucella canis

In the present study, the validation of an enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA) for serodiagnosis of canine brucellosis is described. Two different antigenic extracts, obtained by heat or ultrasonic homogenization of microbial antigens from a wild isolate of Brucella canis bacteria, were compared by ELISA and Western blot (WB). A total of 145 canine sera were used to define sensitivity, specificity and accuracy of the ELISA as follows: (1) sera from 34 animals with natural B. canis infection, confirmed by blood culture and PCR, as well as 51 sera samples from healthy dogs with negative results by the agar-gel immunodiffusion (ACID) test for canine brucellosis, were used as the control panel for B. cants infection; and (2) to scrutinize the possibility of cross reactions with other common dog infections in the same geographical area in Brazil, 60 sera samples from dogs harboring known infections by Leptospira sp., Ehrlichia canis, canine distemper virus (CDV), Neospora caninum, Babesia canis and Leishmania chagasi (10 in each group) were included in the study. The ELISA using heat soluble bacterial extract (HE-antigen) as antigen showed the best values of sensitivity (91.18%), specificity (100%) and accuracy (96.47%). In the WB analyses, the HE-antigen showed no cross-reactivity with sera from dogs with different infections, while the B. canis sonicate had various protein bands identified by those sera. The performance of the ELISA standardized with the heat soluble B. canis antigen indicates that this assay can be used as a reliable and practical method to confirm infection by this microorganism, as well as a tool for seroepidemiological studies. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Suppression of small baryonic structures due to a primordial magnetic field

We investigate the impact of the existence of a primordial magnetic field on the filter mass, characterizing the minimum baryonic mass that can form in dark matter (DM) haloes. For masses below the filter mass, the baryon content of DM haloes are severely depressed. The filter mass is the mass when the baryon to DM mass ratio in a halo is equal to half the baryon to DM ratio of the Universe. The filter mass has previously been used in semi-analytic calculations of galaxy formation, without taking into account the possible existence of a primordial magnetic field. We examine here its effect on the filter mass. For homogeneous comoving primordial magnetic fields of B(0) similar to 1 or 2 nG and a re-ionization epoch that starts at a redshift z(s) = 11 and is completed at z(r) = 8, the filter mass is increased at redshift 8, for example, by factors of 4.1 and 19.8, respectively. The dependence of the filter mass on the parameters describing the re-ionization epoch is investigated. Our results are particularly important for the formation of low-mass galaxies in the presence of a homogeneous primordial magnetic field. For example, for B(0) similar to 1 nG and a re-ionization epoch of z(s) similar to 11 and z(r) similar to 7, our results indicate that galaxies of total mass M similar to 5 x 108 M(circle dot) need to form at redshifts z(F) greater than or similar to 2.0, and galaxies of total mass M similar to 108 M(circle dot) at redshifts z(F) greater than or similar to 7.7.

Are leaf-litter frogs and lizards affected by edge effects due to forest fragmentation in Brazilian Atlantic forest?

FAPESP Fundacao de Amparo a Pesquisa do Estado de Sao Paulo

SIZE AS A LINE OF LEAST RESISTANCE II: DIRECT SELECTION ON SIZE OR CORRELATED RESPONSE DUE TO CONSTRAINTS?

Evolutionary change in New World Monkey (NWM) skulls occurred primarily along the line of least resistance defined by size (including allometric) variation (g(max)). Although the direction of evolution was aligned with this axis, it was not clear whether this macroevolutionary pattern results from the conservation of within population genetic covariance patterns (long-term constraint) or long-term selection along a size dimension, or whether both, constraints and selection, were inextricably involved. Furthermore, G-matrix stability can also be a consequence of selection, which implies that both, constraints embodied in g(max) and evolutionary changes observed on the trait averages, would be influenced by selection Here, we describe a combination of approaches that allows one to test whether any particular instance of size evolution is a correlated by-product due to constraints (g(max)) or is due to direct selection on size and apply it to NWM lineages as a case study. The approach is based on comparing the direction and amount of evolutionary change produced by two different simulated sets of net-selection gradients (beta), a size (isometric and allometric size) and a nonsize set. Using this approach it is possible to distinguish between the two hypotheses (indirect size evolution due to constraints or direct selection on size), because although both may produce an evolutionary response aligned with g(max), the amount of change produced by random selection operating through the variance/covariance patterns (constraints hypothesis) will be much smaller than that produced by selection on size (selection hypothesis). Furthermore, the alignment of simulated evolutionary changes with g(max) when selection is not on size is not as tight as when selection is actually on size, allowing a statistical test of whether a particular observed case of evolution along the line of least resistance is the result of selection along it or not. Also, with matrix diagonalization (principal components [PC]) it is possible to calculate directly the net-selection gradient on size alone (first PC [PC1]) by dividing the amount of phenotypic difference between any two populations by the amount of variation in PC1, which allows one to benchmark whether selection was on size or not

A Rare Case of Trisomy 15pter-q21.2 Due to a De Novo Marker Chromosome

Supernumerary marker chromosomes (sSMC) may or may not be associated with an abnormal phenotype, depending on the presence of euchromatin, on their chromosomal origin and whether they are inherited. Over 80% of sSMCs are derived from acrocentric chromosomes and half of them include the short arm of chromosome 15. Generally, they appear as bisatellited isodicentric marker chromosomes, most of them are symmetric. These chromosomes are normally originated de novo and are associated with mild to severe intellectual disability but not with physical abnormalities. We report on a patient with an SMC studied using classical and molecular cytogenetic procedures (G and C banding, NOR staining, painting and centromeric fluorescent in situ hybridization (FISH), BAC-FISH, and SKY). The MLPA technique and DNA polymorphic markers were used in order to identify its parental origin. The marker chromosome, monosatellited and monocentric, was found to be derived from a maternal chromosome 15 and was defined as 15pter-q21.2. This is the report of the largest de novo monosatellited 15q marker chromosome ever published presenting detailed cytogenetic and clinical data. It was associated with a phenotype including cardiac defect, absence of septum pellucidum, and dysplasia of the corpus callosum. (C) 2010 Wiley-Liss, Inc.

Absence of Melatonin Induces Night-Time Hepatic Insulin Resistance and Increased Gluconeogenesis Due to Stimulation of Nocturnal Unfolded Protein Response

It is known that the circadian rhythm in hepatic phosphoenolpyruvate carboxykinase expression (a limiting catalytic step of gluconeogenesis) and hepatic glucose production is maintained by both daily oscillation in autonomic inputs to the liver and night feeding behavior. However, increased glycemia and reduced melatonin (Mel) levels have been recently shown to coexist in diabetic patients at the end of the night period. In parallel, pinealectomy (PINX) is known to cause glucose intolerance with increased basal glycemia exclusively at the end of the night. The mechanisms that underlie this metabolic feature are not completely understood. Here, we demonstrate that PINX rats show night-time hepatic insulin resistance characterized by reduced insulin-stimulated RAC-alpha serine/threonine-protein kinase phosphorylation and increased phosphoenolpyruvate carboxykinase expression. In addition, PINX rats display increased conversion of pyruvate into glucose at the end of the night. The regulatory mechanism suggests the participation of unfolded protein response (UPR), because PINX induces night-time increase in activating transcription factor 6 expression and prompts a circadian fashion of immunoglobulin heavy chain-binding protein, activating transcription factor 4, and CCAAT/enhancer-binding protein-homologous protein expression with Zenith values at the dark period. PINX also caused a night-time increase in Tribble 3 and regulatory-associated protein of mammalian target of rapamycin; both were reduced in liver of PINX rats treated with Mel. Treatment of PINX rats with 4-phenyl butyric acid, an inhibitor of UPR, restored night-time hepatic insulin sensitivity and abrogated gluconeogenesis in PINX rats. Altogether, the present data show that a circadian oscillation of UPR occurs in the liver due to the absence of Mel. The nocturnal UPR activation is related with night-time hepatic insulin resistance and increased gluconeogenesis in PINX rats. (Endocrinology 152: 1253-1263, 2011)

p53 Mutant Human Glioma Cells Are Sensitive to UV-C-Induced Apoptosis Due to Impaired Cyclobutane Pyrimidine Dimer Removal

The p53 protein is a key regulator of cell responses to DNA damage, and it has been shown that It sensitizes glioma cells to the alkylating agent temozolomide by up-regulating the extrinsic apoptotic pathway, whereas it increases the resistance to chloroethylating agents, such as ACNU and BCNU, probably by enhancing the efficiency of DNA repair. However, because these agents induce a wide variety of distinct DNA lesions, the direct Importance of DNA repair is hard to access. Here, it is shown that the Induction of photoproducts by UV light (UV-C) significantly Induces apoptosis In a p53-mutated glioma background. This Is caused by a reduced level of photoproduct repair, resulting In the persistence of DNA lesions in p53-mutated glioma cells. UV-C-Induced apoptosis in p53 mutant glioma cells Is preceded by strong transcription and replication inhibition due to blockage by unrepaired photolesions. Moreover, the results Indicate that UV-C-induced apoptosis of p53 mutant glioma cells Is executed through the intrinsic apoptotic pathway, with Bcl-2 degradation and sustained Bax and Bak up-regulation. Collectively, the data Indicate that unrepaired DNA lesions Induce apoptosis In p53 mutant gliomas despite the resistance of these gliomas to temozolomide, suggesting that efficiency of treatment of p53 mutant gliomas might be higher with agents that Induce the formation of DNA lesions whose global genomic repair is dependent on p53. (Mol Cancer Res 2009;7(2):237-46)