Assessing the impact of the 'Decoupling' reform of the common agricultural policy on Irish farmers' off-farm labour market participation decisions

This paper assesses the impact of the 'decoupling' reform of the Common Agricultural Policy on the labour allocation decisions of Irish farmers. The agricultural household decision-making model provides the conceptual and theoretical framework to examine the interaction between government subsidies and farmers' time allocation decisions. The relationship postulated is that 'decoupling' of agricultural support from production would probably result in a decline in the return to farm labour but it would also lead to an increase in household wealth. The effect of these factors on how farmers allocate their time is tested empirically using labour participation and labour supply models. The models developed are sufficiently general for application elsewhere. The main findings for the Irish situation are that the decoupling of direct payments is likely to increase the probability of farmers participating in the off-farm employment market and that the amount of time allocated to off-farm work will increase.

How big is your neighbourhood? Spatial implications of market participation among Filipino smallholders

We present a procedure for estimating two quantities defining the spatial externality in discrete-choice commonly referred to as 'the neighbourhood effect'. One quantity, the propensity for neighbours to make the same decision, reflects traditional preoccupations; the other quantity, the magnitude of the neighbourhood itself, is novel. Because both quantities have fundamental bearing on the magnitude of the spatial externality, it is desirable to have a robust algorithm for their estimation. Using recent advances in Bayesian estimation and model comparison, we devise such an algorithm and illustrate its application to a sample of northern-Filipino smallholders. We determine that a significant, positive, neighbourhood effect exists; that, among the 12 geographical units comprising the sample, the neighbourhood spans a three-unit radius; and that policy prescriptions are significantly altered when calculations account for the spatial externality.

Detecting intraday periodicities with application to high frequency exchange rates

Many recent papers have documented periodicities in returns, return volatility, bid–ask spreads and trading volume, in both equity and foreign exchange markets. We propose and employ a new test for detecting subtle periodicities in time series data based on a signal coherence function. The technique is applied to a set of seven half-hourly exchange rate series. Overall, we find the signal coherence to be maximal at the 8-h and 12-h frequencies. Retaining only the most coherent frequencies for each series, we implement a trading rule that is based on these observed periodicities. Our results demonstrate in all cases except one that, in gross terms, the rules can generate returns that are considerably greater than those of a buy-and-hold strategy, although they cannot retain their profitability net of transactions costs. We conjecture that this methodology could constitute an important tool for financial market researchers which will enable them to detect, quantify and rank the various periodic components in financial data better.

Functional oligosaccharides: application and manufacture.

Oligosaccharides are attracting increasing interest as prebiotic functional food ingredients. They can be extracted or obtained by enzymatic hydrolysis from a variety of biomass sources or synthesized from simple oligosaccharides by enzymatic transfer reactions. The major prebiotic oligosaccharides on the market are inulin, fructo-oligosaccharides, and galacto-oligosaccharides. They have been evaluated using a range of in vitro and in vivo methods, although there is a need for more large-scale human trials using modern microbiological methods. Prebiotics are being studied for their effects on gut health and well being and specific clinical conditions, including colon cancer, inflammatory bowel disease (IBD), acute infections, and mineral absorption. Developing understanding of the functional ecology of the human gut is influencing current thinking on what a prebiotic might achieve and is providing new targets for prebiotic intervention.

Review of R&D progress and practical application of the solar photovoltaic/thermal (PV/T) technologies

In this paper, the global market potential of solar thermal, photovoltaic (PV) and combined photovoltaic/thermal (PV/T) technologies in current time and near future was discussed. The concept of the PV/T and the theory behind the PV/T operation were briefly introduced, and standards for evaluating technical, economic and environmental performance of the PV/T systems were addressed. A comprehensive literature review into R&D works and practical application of the PV/T technology was illustrated and the review results were critically analysed in terms of PV/T type and research methodology used. The major features, current status, research focuses and existing difficulties/barriers related to the various types of PV/T were identified. The research methods, including theoretical analyses and computer simulation, experimental and combined experimental/theoretical investigation, demonstration and feasibility study, as well as economic and environmental analyses, applied into the PV/T technology were individually discussed, and the achievement and problems remaining in each research method category were described. Finally, opportunities for further work to carry on PV/T study were identified. The review research indicated that air/water-based PV/T systems are the commonly used technologies but their thermal removal effectiveness is lower. Refrigerant/heat-pipe-based PV/Ts, although still in research/laboratory stage, could achieve much higher solar conversion efficiencies over the air/water-based systems. However, these systems were found a few technical challenges in practice which require further resolutions. The review research suggested that further works could be undertaken to (1) develop new feasible, economic and energy efficient PV/T systems; (2) optimise the structural/geometrical configurations of the existing PV/T systems; (3) study long term dynamic performance of the PV/T systems; (4) demonstrate the PV/T systems in real buildings and conduct the feasibility study; and (5) carry on advanced economic and environmental analyses. This review research helps finding the questions remaining in PV/T technology, identify new research topics/directions to further improve the performance of the PV/T, remove the barriers in PV/T practical application, establish the standards/regulations related to PV/T design and installation, and promote its market penetration throughout the world.

Crossbred cow adoption and milk market participation in a multivariate count data framework

Cross-bred cow adoption is an important and potent policy variable precipitating subsistence household entry into emerging milk markets. This paper focuses on the problem of designing policies that encourage and sustain milkmarket expansion among a sample of subsistence households in the Ethiopian highlands. In this context it is desirable to measure households’ ‘proximity’ to market in terms of the level of deficiency of essential inputs. This problem is compounded by four factors. One is the existence of cross-bred cow numbers (count data) as an important, endogenous decision by the household; second is the lack of a multivariate generalization of the Poisson regression model; third is the censored nature of the milk sales data (sales from non-participating households are, essentially, censored at zero); and fourth is an important simultaneity that exists between the decision to adopt a cross-bred cow, the decision about how much milk to produce, the decision about how much milk to consume and the decision to market that milk which is produced but not consumed internally by the household. Routine application of Gibbs sampling and data augmentation overcome these problems in a relatively straightforward manner. We model the count data from two sites close to Addis Ababa in a latent, categorical-variable setting with known bin boundaries. The single-equation model is then extended to a multivariate system that accommodates the covariance between crossbred-cow adoption, milk-output, and milk-sales equations. The latent-variable procedure proves tractable in extension to the multivariate setting and provides important information for policy formation in emerging-market settings

Predicting stock index volatility: can market volume help?

This paper explores a number of statistical models for predicting the daily stock return volatility of an aggregate of all stocks traded on the NYSE. An application of linear and non-linear Granger causality tests highlights evidence of bidirectional causality, although the relationship is stronger from volatility to volume than the other way around. The out-of-sample forecasting performance of various linear, GARCH, EGARCH, GJR and neural network models of volatility are evaluated and compared. The models are also augmented by the addition of a measure of lagged volume to form more general ex-ante forecasting models. The results indicate that augmenting models of volatility with measures of lagged volume leads only to very modest improvements, if any, in forecasting performance.

Calculating the application criticality and business risk from technology obsolescence

The problem of technology obsolescence in information intensive businesses (software and hardware no longer being supported and replaced by improved and different solutions) and a cost constrained market can severely increase costs and operational, and ultimately reputation risk. Although many businesses recognise technological obsolescence, the pervasive nature of technology often means they have little information to identify the risk and location of pending obsolescence and little money to apply to the solution. This paper presents a low cost structured method to identify obsolete software and the risk of their obsolescence where the structure of a business and its supporting IT resources can be captured, modelled, analysed and the risk to the business of technology obsolescence identified to enable remedial action using qualified obsolescence information. The technique is based on a structured modelling approach using enterprise architecture models and a heatmap algorithm to highlight high risk obsolescent elements. The method has been tested and applied in practice in three consulting studies carried out by Capgemini involving four UK police forces. However the generic technique could be applied to any industry based on plans to improve it using ontology framework methods. This paper contains details of enterprise architecture meta-models and related modelling.