The conserved quantity theory of causation and chance raising

In this paper I offer an 'integrating account' of singular causation, where the term 'integrating' refers to the following program for analysing causation. There are two intuitions about causation, both of which face serious counterexamples when used as the basis for an analysis of causation. The 'process' intuition, which says that causes and effects are linked by concrete processes, runs into trouble with cases of misconnections', where an event which serves to prevent another fails to do so on a particular occasion and yet the two events are linked by causal processes. The chance raising intuition, according to which causes raise the chance of their effects, easily accounts for misconnections but faces the problem of chance lowering causes, a problem easily accounted for by the process approach. The integrating program attempts to provide an analysis of singular causation by synthesising the two insights, so as to solve both problems. In this paper I show that extant versions of the integrating program due to Eells, Lewis, and Menzies fail to account for the chance-lowering counterexample. I offer a new diagnosis of the chance lowering case, and use that as a basis for an integrating account of causation which does solve both cases. In doing so, I accept various assumptions of the integrating program, in particular that there are no other problems with these two approaches. As an example of the process account, I focus on the recent CQ theory of Wesley Salmon (1997).

Percolative fragmentation of char particles during gasification

Percolative fragmentation was confirmed to occur during gasification of three microporous coal chars. Indirect evidence obtained by the variation of electrical resistivity (ER) with conversion was supported by direct observation of numerous fragments during gasification. The resistivity increases slowly at low conversions and then sharply after a certain conversion value, which is a typical percolation phenomenon suggesting the occurrence of internal fragmentation at high conversion. Two percolation models are applied to interpret the experimental data and determine the percolation threshold. A percolation threshold of 0.02-0.07 was found, corresponding to a critical conversion of 92-96% for fragmentation. The electrical resistivity variation at high conversions is found to be very sensitive to diffusional effects during gasification. Partially burnt samples with a narrow initial particle size range were also observed microscopically, and found to yield a large number of small fragments even when the particles showed no disintegration and chemical control prevailed. It is proposed that this is due to the separation of isolated clusters from the particle surface. The particle size distribution of the fragments was essentially independent of the reaction conditions and the char type, and supported the prediction by percolation theory that the number fraction distribution varies linearly with mass in a log-log plot. The results imply that perimeter fragmentation would occur in practical combustion systems in which the reactions are strongly diffusion affected.

Optimal release strategies for biological control agents: an application of stochastic dynamic programming to population management

1. Establishing biological control agents in the field is a major step in any classical biocontrol programme, yet there are few general guidelines to help the practitioner decide what factors might enhance the establishment of such agents. 2. A stochastic dynamic programming (SDP) approach, linked to a metapopulation model, was used to find optimal release strategies (number and size of releases), given constraints on time and the number of biocontrol agents available. By modelling within a decision-making framework we derived rules of thumb that will enable biocontrol workers to choose between management options, depending on the current state of the system. 3. When there are few well-established sites, making a few large releases is the optimal strategy. For other states of the system, the optimal strategy ranges from a few large releases, through a mixed strategy (a variety of release sizes), to many small releases, as the probability of establishment of smaller inocula increases. 4. Given that the probability of establishment is rarely a known entity, we also strongly recommend a mixed strategy in the early stages of a release programme, to accelerate learning and improve the chances of finding the optimal approach.

Extraordinary and extensive karyotypic variation: A 48-fold range in chromosome number in the gall-inducing scale insect Apiomorpha (Hemiptera : Coccoidea : Eriococcidae)

Chromosome number reflects strong constraints on karyotype evolution, unescaped by the majority of animal taxa. Although there is commonly chromosomal polymorphism among closely related taxa, very large differences in chromosome number are rare. This study reports one of the most extensive chromosomal ranges yet reported for an animal genus. Apiomorpha Rubsaamen (Hemiptera: Coccoidea: Eriococcidae), an endemic Australian gall-inducing scale insect genus, exhibits an extraordinary 48-fold variation in chromosome number with diploid numbers ranging from 4 to about 192. Diploid complements of all other eriococcids examined to date range only from 6 to 28. Closely related species of Apiomorpha usually have very different karyotypes, to the extent that the variation within some species- groups is as great as that across the entire genus. There is extensive chromosomal variation among populations within 17 of the morphologically defined species of Apiomorpha indicating the existence of cryptic species-complexes. The extent and pattern of karyotypic variation suggests rapid chromosomal evolution via fissions and (or) fusions. It is hypothesized that chromosomal rearrangements in Apiomorpha species may be associated with these insects' tracking the radiation of their speciose host genus, Eucalyptus.

Maximum packings of K-v-K-u with triples

We construct, for all positive integers u, and v with u less than or equal to v, a decomposition of K-v - K-u (the complete graph on v vertices with a. hole of size u) into the maximum possible number of edge disjoint triangles.

Solute transport by surface runoff from low-angle slopes: theory and application

The removal of chemicals in solution by overland how from agricultural land has the potential to be a significant source of chemical loss where chemicals are applied to the soil surface, as in zero tillage and surface-mulched farming systems. Currently, we lack detailed understanding of the transfer mechanism between the soil solution and overland flow, particularly under field conditions. A model of solute transfer from soil solution to overland flow was developed. The model is based on the hypothesis that a solute is initially distributed uniformly throughout the soil pore space in a thin layer at the soil surface. A fundamental assumption of the model is that at the time runoff commences, any solute at the soil surface that could be transported into the soil with the infiltrating water will already have been convected away from the area of potential exchange. Solute remaining at the soil surface is therefore not subject to further infiltration and may be approximated as a layer of tracer on a plane impermeable surface. The model fitted experimental data very well in all but one trial. The model in its present form focuses on the exchange of solute between the soil solution and surface water after the commencement of runoff. Future model development requires the relationship between the mass transfer parameters of the model and the time to runoff: to be defined. This would enable the model to be used for extrapolation beyond the specific experimental results of this study. The close agreement between experimental results and model simulations shows that the simple transfer equation proposed in this study has promise for estimating solute loss to surface runoff. Copyright (C) 2000 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Neurons in the hilus region of the rat hippocampus are depleted in number by exposure to alcohol during early postnatal life

We have previously shown that exposing rats to a relatively high dose of ethanol during early postnatal life resulted in a deficit in spatial learning ability. This ability is controlled, at least in part, by the hippocampal formation. The purpose of the present study was to determine whether exposure of rats to ethanol during early postnatal life affected the number of specific neurons in the hippocampus. Wistar rats were exposed to a relatively high daily dose of ethanol between postnatal days 10 and 15 by placing them for 3 h each day in a chamber containing ethanol vapor. The blood ethanol concentration was about 430 mg/dl at the end of the exposure period. Groups of ethanol-treated (ET) rats, separation controls (SC), and mother-reared controls (MRC) were anesthetized and killed at 16 days of age by perfusion with phosphate-buffered glutaraldehyde (2.5%). The Cavalieri principle was used to determine the volume of various subdivisions of the hippocampal formation (CA1, CA2+CA3, hilus, and granule cell layer), and the physical disector method was used to estimate the numerical densities of neurons within each subdivision. The total number of neurons was calculated by multiplying estimates of the numerical density with the volume. There were, on average, about 441,000 granule cells in the granule cell layer and 153,000 to 177,000 pyramidal cells in both the CA1 and CA2+CA3 regions in all three treatment groups. In the hilus region, ET rats had about 27,000 neuronal cells. This was significantly fewer than the average of 38,000 such neurons estimated to be present in both MRC and SC animals. Thus, neurons in the hilus region may be particularly vulnerable to the effects of a high dose of ethanol exposure during early postnatal life. (C) 2000 Wiley-Liss, Inc.

Quantum interference in the fluorescence of a molecular system

It has been observed experimentally [H.R. Xia, C.Y. Ye, and S.Y. Zhu, Phys. Rev. Lett. 77, 1032 (1996)] that quantum interference between two molecular transitions can lead to a suppression or enhancement of spontaneous emission. This is manifest in the fluorescent intensity as a function of the detuning of the driving field from the two-photon resonance condition. Here we present a theory that explains the observed variation of the number of peaks with the mutual polarization of the molecular transition dipole moments. Using master equation techniques we calculate analytically as well as numerically the steady-state fluorescence, and find that the number of peaks depends on the excitation process. If the molecule is driven to the upper levels by a two-photon process, the fluorescent intensity consists of two peaks regardless of the mutual polarization of the transition dipole moments. Lf the excitation process is composed of both a two-step, one-photon process and a one-step, two-photon process, then there are two peaks on transitions with parallel dipole moments and three peaks on transitions with antiparallel dipole moments. This latter case is in excellent agreement with the experiment.

Comparative analysis of dendritic cell density and total number in commonly transplanted organs: morphometric estimation in normal mice

Dendritic cells (DC) are considered to be the major cell type responsible for induction of primary immune responses. While they have been shown to play a critical role in eliciting allosensitization via the direct pathway, there is evidence that maturational and/or activational heterogeneity between DC in different donor organs may be crucial to allograft outcome. Despite such an important perceived role for DC, no accurate estimates of their number in commonly transplanted organs have been reported. Therefore, leukocytes and DC were visualized and enumerated in cryostat sections of normal mouse (C57BL/10, B10.BR, C3H) liver, heart, kidney and pancreas by immunohistochemistry (CD45 and MHC class II staining, respectively). Total immunopositive cell number and MHC class II+ cell density (C57BL/10 mice only) were estimated using established morphometric techniques - the fractionator and disector principles, respectively. Liver contained considerably more leukocytes (similar to 5-20 x 10(6)) and DC (similar to 1-3 x 10(6)) than the other organs examined (pancreas: similar to 0.6 x 10(6) and similar to 0.35 x 10(6): heart: similar to 0.8 x 10(6) and similar to 0.4 x 10(6); kidney similar to 1.2 x 10(6) and 0.65 x 10(6), respectively). In liver, DC comprised a lower proportion of all leukocytes (similar to 15-25%) than in the other parenchymal organs examined (similar to 40-60%). Comparatively, DC density in C57BL/10 mice was heart > kidney > pancreas much greater than liver (similar to 6.6 x 10(6), 5 x 10(6), 4.5 x 10(6) and 1.1 x 10(6) cells/cm(3), respectively). When compared to previously published data on allograft survival, the results indicate that the absolute number of MHC class II+ DC present in a donor organ is a poor predictor of graft outcome. Survival of solid organ allografts is more closely related to the density of the donor DC network within the graft. (C) 2000 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

Volunteer decision making by older people: A test of a revised theory of planned behavior

This study was designed to test the utility of a revised theory of planned behavior in the prediction of intentions to volunteer among older people. Such a perspective allowed for the consideration of a broader range of social and contextual factors than has been examined in previous research on volunteer decision making among older people. The article reports the findings from a study that investigated volunteer intentions and behavior in a random sample of older people aged 65 to 74 years living in an Australian capital city. Results showed that, as predicted by the revised theory of planned behavior, intention to volunteer predicted subsequent reported volunteer behavior. Intention was, in turn, predicted by social norms (both subjective and behavioral), perceived behavioral control, and moral obligation, with the effect of attitude being mediated through moral obligation.

Characterization of pore size distributions of mesoporous materials from adsorption isotherms

In this article, a new hybrid model for estimating the pore size distribution of micro- and mesoporous materials is developed, and tested with the adsorption data of nitrogen, oxygen, and argon on ordered mesoporous materials reported in the literature. For the micropore region, the model uses the Dubinin-Rudushkevich (DR) isotherm with the Chen-Yang modification. A recent isotherm model of the authors for nonporous materials, which uses a continuum-mechanical model for the multilayer region and the Unilan model for the submonolayer region, has been extended for adsorption in mesopores. The experimental data is inverted using regularization to obtain the pore size distribution. The present model was found to be successful in predicting the pore size distribution of pure as well as binary physical mixtures of MCM-41 synthesized with different templates, with results in agreement with those from the XRD method and nonlocal density functional theory. It was found that various other recent methods, as well as the classical Broekhoff and de Beer method, underpredict the pore diameter of MCM-41. The present model has been successfully applied to MCM-48, SBA's, CMK, KIT, HMS, FSM, MTS, mesoporous fly ash, and a large number of other regular mesoporous materials.

Water wave-driven seepage in marine sediments

The action of water waves moving over a porous seabed drives a seepage flux into and out of the marine sediments. The volume of fluid exchange per wave cycle may affect the rate of contaminant transport in the sediments. In this paper, the dynamic response of the seabed to ocean waves is treated analytically on the basis of pore-elastic theory applied to a porous seabed. The seabed is modelled as a semi-infinite, isotropic, homogeneous material. Most previous investigations on the wave-seabed interaction problem have assumed quasi-static conditions within the seabed, although dynamic behaviour often occurs in natural environments. Furthermore, wave pressures used in the previous approaches were obtained from conventional ocean wave theories: which are based on the assumption of an impermeable rigid seabed. By introducing a complex wave number, we derive a new wave dispersion equation, which includes the seabed characteristics (such as soil permeability, shear modulus, etc.). Based on the new closed-form analytical solution, the relative differences of the wave-induced seabed response under dynamic and quasi-static conditions are examined. The effects of wave and soil parameters on the seepage flux per wave cycle are also discussed in detail. (C) 2000 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.