The Impact of Population Ageing on the Labour Market: Evidence from Overlapping Generations Computable General Equilibrium (OLG-CGE) Model of Scotland

This paper presents a dynamic Overlapping Generations Computable General Equilibrium (OLG-CGE) model of Scotland. The model is used to examine the impact of population ageing on the labour market. More specifically, it is used to evaluate the effects of labour force decline and labour force ageing on key macro-economic variables. The second effect is assumed to operate through age-specific productivity and labour force participation. In the analysis, particular attention is paid to how population ageing impinges on the government expenditure constraint. The basic structure of the model follows in the Auerbach and Kotlikoff tradition. However, the model takes into consideration directly age-specific mortality. This is analogous to “building in” a cohort-component population projection structure to the model, which allows more complex and more realistic demographic scenarios to be considered.

Spanish pension system: population aging and immigration policy

There is a widespread consensus in the literature that, as consequence of the demographic transition, the current Spanish pension system will become unsustainable in the next decades. In this article we evaluate the sustainability of the contributory pensions' sub-system, taking into account the demographic projections by the Spanish Statistical Office (INE). A baseline scenario is projected as well as several reforms are simulated, focusing on: (i) selective immigration policy, (ii) changes in the way of setting the pensions and (iii) increase of the legal age of retirement up to 68. The main results are the following. The current system would not incur deficits until 2018, from then deficits will begin to be accumulated. The expenditure in pensions practically would double (from 8.3 % in 2005 to 17.2 % in 2050). A selective immigration policy -towards foreign young people- would help, but does not solve the long-term sustainability of the current system. A policy that combines a pensions' growth at a pace lower than productivity growth and extends the legal age of retirement up to 68 would give solvency to the system beyond 2029

Cholestérol, pression artérielle et fumée de cigarette dans la population en Suisse: le projet MONICA. [Cholesterol, blood-pressure and cigarette-smoking in switzerland - the MONICA-project].

Elevated plasma cholesterol, high blood pressure and cigarette smoking are three major risk factors for coronary heart disease. Within the framework of Switzerland's participation in the multicenter study MONICA (MONItoring of trends and determinants in CArdiovascular disease), proposed by the WHO, a first risk factor survey was conducted in a representative sample of the population (25-74 years) of two reporting units (cantons of Vaud and Fribourg, canton of Tessin). A high blood cholesterol level (>6,7 mmol/l) is the most common risk factor for coronary heart disease among the studied population. Among men, about 13% have elevated blood pressure, the proportion being about one in ten among women; these proportions increase with age and are slightly above these values in Tessin. Cigarette smoking is still a common behavior; between 25 and 45 years one third of the population (male and female) regularly smoke cigarettes.

Spatial and seasonal trends of a natural population of Biomphalaria occidentalis in northeastern Argentina

This study aims to analyze the age of a population of Biomphalaria occidentalis on a pound of Riachuelo river basin, wich is one of the three most important Middle Paraná river affluents in Corrientes province. Samples were drawn from three stations, were spatial and temporal numerical variations of the snail, as well as its relation with different environmental parameters, mainly temperature, rainfall, pH and conductivity, were analyzed. Snail abundance is given in number of individuals/hour. The differences between the three sampling stations, estimated by nonparametric tests, was nonsignificant. A relative scale to the greatest shell diameter was employed to build the age pyramids. Temporal fluctuations of snail abundance correlated negatively with the highest monthly accumulated temperatures (P < 0.05). Although different floristic compositions were observed at the three stations, no significant numerical variations were detected in B. occidentalis spatial distribution. Reproductive activity took place between March-April and November with overlapping cohort system. During summer (December-Febuary) mortality increased along with temperature and reproductive activity was not evident.

Plasma Level of Mmp-9 as Predictive Factor for Response and Progression Free Survival in Patients Treated with Bevacizumab (Bev) and Pegylated Liposomal Doxorubicin (Pld): Sakk 24/06

Background: There is currently no identified marker predicting benefit from Bev in patients with breast cancer (pts). We monitored prospectively 6 angiogenesis-related factors in the blood of advanced stage pts treated with a combination of Bev and PLD in a phase II trial of the Swiss Group for Clinical Cancer Research, SAKK.Methods: Pts received PLD (20 mg/m2) and Bev (10 mg/kg) every 2 weeks for a maximum of 12 administrations, followed by Bev monotherapy until progression or severe toxicity. Blood samples were collected at baseline, during treatment and at treatment discontinuation. Enzyme-linked immunosorbent assays (Quantikine, R&DSystems and Reliatech) were used to measure vascular endothelial growth factor (VEGF), placental growth factor (PlGF), matrix metalloproteinase 9 (MMP-9) and soluble VEGF receptors -1, -2 and -3. The natural log-transformed (ln) data for each factor was analyzed by analysis of variance (ANOVA) model to investigate differences between the mean values of the subgroups of interest (where a = 0.05), based on the best tumor response by RECIST.Results: 132 samples were collected in 41 pts. The mean of baseline ln MMP-9 levels was significantly lower in pts with tumor progression than those with tumor response (p=0.0202, log fold change=0.8786) or disease control (p=0.0035, log fold change=0.8427). Higher MMP-9 level was a significant predictor of superior progression free survival (PFS): p=0.0417, hazard ratio=0.574, 95% CI=0.336-0.979. In a multivariate cox proportional hazards model, containing performance status, disease free interval, number of tumor sites, visceral involvement and prior adjuvant chemotherapy, using stepwise regression baseline MMP-9 was still a statistically 117P Table 1. SOLTI-0701* AC01B07* NU07B1* SOR+CAP N=20 PL+CAP N=33 SOR+ GEM/CAP N=23 PL+ GEM/CAP N=27 SOR+PAC N=48 PL+PAC N=46 Baseline characteristics Age, median (range), y 49 (32-72) 53 (30-78 54 (32-69) 57 (31-82) 50 (27-80) 52 (23-74) AJCC stage, n (%) IIIB/IIIC 3 (15) 6 (18) 0 (0) 3 (11) 8 (17) 9 (20) IV 17 (85) 27 (82) 23 (100) 24 (89) 40 (83) 37 (80) Metastatic site, n (%) Non-visceral 3 (15) 6 (18) 7 (30) 6 (22) 9 (19) 17 (37) Visceral 17 (85) 27 (82) 16 (70) 21 (78) 39 (81) 29 (63) Prior metastatic chemo, n (%) 8 (40) 15 (45) 21 (91) 25 (93) - - Efficacy PFS, median, mo 4.3 2.5 3.1 2.6 5.6 5.5 HR (95% CI)_ 0.60 (0.31, 1.14) 0.57 (0.30, 1.09) 0.86 (0.50, 1.45) 1-sided P value_ 0.055 0.044 0.281 Overall survival, median, mo 17.5 16.1 Pending 14.7 18.2 HR (95% CI)_ 0.98 (0.50, 1.89) 1.11 (0.64, 1.94) 1-sided P value_ 0.476 0.352 Safety N=20 N=33 N=22 N=27 N=46 N=46 Tx-emergent Grade 3/4, n (%) 15 (75) 16 (48) 20 (91) 17 (63) 36 (78) 16 (35) Grade 3§ hand-foot skin reaction/ syndrome 8 (40) 5 (15) 8 (36) 0 (0) 14 (30) 2 (4) *Efficacy results based on intent-to-treat population and safety results based on safety population (pts who received study drug[s]); _Cox regression within each subgroup; _log-rank test within each subgroup; §maximum toxicity grade for hand-foot skin reaction/syndrome; AJCC, American Joint Committee on Cancer mittedabstractsª The Author 2011. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the European Society for Medical Oncology. All rights reserved. For permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com Downloaded from annonc.oxfordjournals.org at Bibliotheque Cantonale et Universitaire on June 6, 2011 significant factor (p=0.0266). The results of the other measured factors were presented elsewhere.Conclusions: Higher levels of MMP-9 could predict tumor response and superior PFSin pts treated with a combination of Bev and PLD. These exploratory results justify further investigations of MMP-9 in pts treated with Bev combinations in order to assess its role as a prognostic and predictive factor.Disclosure: K. Zaman: Participation in advisory board of Roche; partial sponsoring ofthe study by Roche (the main sponsor was the Swiss Federation against Cancer (Oncosuisse)). B. Thu¨rlimann: stock of Roche; Research grants from Roche. R. vonMoos: Participant of Advisory Board and Speaker honoraria

Clinical and biological determinants of kidney outcomes in a population-based cohort study

BACKGROUND/AIMS: Prospective studies on factors associated with adverse kidney outcomes in European general populations are scant. Also, few studies consider the potential confounding effect of baseline kidney function. METHODS: We used baseline (2003-2006) and 5-year follow-up data of adults from the general population to evaluate the effect of baseline kidney function and proteinuria on the association of clinical, biological (e.g. uric acid, homocysteine, cytokines), and socioeconomic factors with change in kidney function, rapid decline in kidney function, and incidence of chronic kidney disease (CKD). Estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) and urinary albuminuria-to-creatinine ratio (UACR) were collected. Kidney outcomes were modeled using multivariable regressions. RESULTS: A total of 4,441 subjects were included in the analysis. Among participants without CKD at baseline, 11.4% presented rapid decline in eGFR and/or incident CKD. After adjustment for baseline eGFR and log UACR, only age (Odds Ratio; 1.25 [95%CI 1.18-1.33]), diabetes (OR 1.48 [1.03-2.13]), education (OR middle vs. high 1.51 [1.08-2.11]) and log ultrasensitive CRP (OR 1.16 [1.05-1.22]) were associated with rapid decline in eGFR or incident CKD. Baseline log UACR (OR 1.18 [1.06-1.32]) but not eGFR was associated with rapid decline in eGFR and/or incident CKD. CONCLUSION: In addition to age and diabetes, education and CRP levels are associated with adverse kidney outcomes independently of baseline kidney function.

Treatment of advanced soft-tissue sarcomas using a combined strategy of high-dose ifosfamide, high-dose doxorubicin and salvage therapies.

Having determined in a phase I study the maximum tolerated dose of high-dose ifosfamide combined with high-dose doxorubicin, we now report the long-term results of a phase II trial in advanced soft-tissue sarcomas. Forty-six patients with locally advanced or metastatic soft-tissue sarcomas were included, with age <60 years and all except one in good performance status (0 or 1). The chemotherapy treatment consisted of ifosfamide 10 g m(-2) (continuous infusion for 5 days), doxorubicin 30 mg m(-2) day(-1) x 3 (total dose 90 mg m(-2)), mesna and granulocyte-colony stimulating factor. Cycles were repeated every 21 days. A median of 4 (1-6) cycles per patient was administered. Twenty-two patients responded to therapy, including three complete responders and 19 partial responders for an overall response rate of 48% (95% CI: 33-63%). The response rate was not different between localised and metastatic diseases or between histological types, but was higher in grade 3 tumours. Median overall survival was 19 months. Salvage therapies (surgery and/or radiotherapy) were performed in 43% of patients and found to be the most significant predictor for favourable survival (exploratory multivariate analysis). Haematological toxicity was severe, including grade > or =3 neutropenia in 59%, thrombopenia in 39% and anaemia in 27% of cycles. Three patients experienced grade 3 neurotoxicity and one patient died of septic shock. This high-dose regimen is toxic but nonetheless feasible in multicentre settings in non elderly patients with good performance status. A high response rate was obtained. Prolonged survival was mainly a function of salvage therapies.

Dose-dependent positive association between cigarette smoking, abdominal obesity and body fat: cross-sectional data from a population-based survey.

ABSTRACT: BACKGROUND: Although smokers tend to have a lower body-mass index than non-smokers, smoking may favour abdominal body fat accumulation. To our knowledge, no population-based studies have assessed the relationship between smoking and body fat composition. We assessed the association between cigarette smoking and waist circumference, body fat, and body-mass index. METHODS: Height, weight, and waist circumference were measured among 6,123 Caucasians (ages 35-75) from a cross-sectional population-based study in Switzerland. Abdominal obesity was defined as waist circumference>=102 cm for men and >=88 cm for women. Body fat (percent total body weight) was measured by electrical bioimpedance. Age- and sex-specific body fat cut-offs were used to define excess body fat. Cigarettes smoked per day were assessed by self-administered questionnaire. Age-adjusted means and odds ratios were calculated using linear and logistic regression. RESULTS: Current smokers (29% of men and 24% of women) had lower mean waist circumference, body fat percentage, and body-mass index compared with non-smokers. Age-adjusted mean waist circumference and body fat increased with cigarettes smoked per day among smokers. The association between cigarettes smoked per day and body-mass index was non-significant. Compared with light smokers, the adjusted odds ratio (OR) for abdominal obesity in men was 1.28 (0.78-2.10) for moderate smokers and 1.94 (1.15-3.27) for heavy smokers (P=0.03 for trend), and 1.07 (0.72-1.58) and 2.15 (1.26-3.64) in female moderate and heavy smokers, respectively (P<0.01 for trend). Compared with light smokers, the OR for excess body fat in men was 1.05 (95% CI: 0.58-1.92) for moderate smokers and 1.15 (0.60-2.20) for heavy smokers (P=0.75 for trend) and 1.34 (0.89-2.00) and 2.11 (1.25-3.57), respectively in women (P=0.07 for trend). CONCLUSION: Among smokers, cigarettes smoked per day were positively associated with central fat accumulation, particularly in women.

Repeated unidirectional introgression towards Populus balsamifera in contact zones of exotic and native poplars.

As the evolutionary significance of hybridization is largely dictated by its extent beyond the first generation, we broadly surveyed patterns of introgression across a sympatric zone of two native poplars (Populus balsamifera, Populus deltoides) in Quebec, Canada within which European exotic Populus nigra and its hybrids have been extensively planted since the 1800s. Single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) that appeared fixed within each species were characterized by DNA-sequencing pools of pure individuals. Thirty-five of these diagnostic SNPs were employed in a high-throughput assay that genotyped 635 trees of different age classes, sampled from 15 sites with various degrees of anthropogenic disturbance. The degree of admixture within sampled trees was then assessed through Bayesian clustering of genotypes. Hybrids were present in seven of the populations, with 2.4% of all sampled trees showing spontaneous admixture. Sites with hybrids were significantly more disturbed than pure stands, while hybrids comprised both immature juveniles and trees of reproductive age. All three possible F1s were detected. Advanced-generation hybrids were consistently biased towards P. balsamifera regardless of whether hybridization had occurred with P. deltoides or P. nigra. Gene exchange between P. deltoides and P. nigra was not detected beyond the F1 generation; however, detection of a trihybrid demonstrates that even this apparent reproductive isolation does not necessarily result in an evolutionary dead end. Collectively, results demonstrate the natural fertility of hybrid poplars and suggest that introduced genes could potentially affect the genetic integrity of native trees, similar to that arising from introgression between natives.

A cohort-based analysis of the evolution of lifetime prevalence of recourse to prostitution by men in the general population of Switzerland, 1987-2000

Background: Despite their relevance to the prevention of sexually transmitted infections, there are few data on the frequency of recourse to prostitution in the male population in Switzerland. Using data gathered for the evaluation of the Swiss AIDS prevention strategy, we analysed net aggregate change and cohort-based change in lifetime prevalence of recourse to prostitution. Methods: Seven repeated cross-sectional telephone surveys of the general population aged 17-45 years (17-30 years only for the 1987 and 1988 surveys) were undertaken from 1987 to 2000 providing information on sexual behaviour including men's recourse to prostitution (total n¼9318). Age categories were: 17-20, 21-25, 26-30, 31-35, 36-40 and 41-45 years. Prevalence at 17-30 years was available in all surveys and prevalence at 41-45 was available for 1989-2000, though not for the same cohorts. Intra-cohort increase in prevalence over 10 years was analysed using truncated information for cohorts aged 21-25 and 26-30 years in 1987 and 1990. Population estimates were computed with 95% confidence intervals (CI). Results: No net change occurred in the 17-45 years male population prevalence between 1989 (17.6%, CI ¼ 15.4; 20.0) and 2000 (17.7%, CI ¼ 15.6; 20.0). The median starting prevalence of recourse to prostitution at age 17-20 was 4.8% (in 1989, CI ¼ 2.0; 9.7) and the range was from 1.8 (in 1994) to 10.4% (in 1990). The median ending prevalence at age 41-45 was 21.9% (in 1994, CI 16.7; 27.9) and the range was from 17.9 (in 2000) to 26.1% (in 1992). No clear trend was observed in either starting or ending prevalence. Intra-cohort evolution of the 1997 and 1990 cohorts was very similar. Conclusions: Based on available data, there was no net (aggregate) change in the prevalence of recourse to prostitution by males in Switzerland between 1989 and 2000. Within the time frame available, intra-cohort evolution was also very similar.

Morphological features of collagen degradation in advanced hepatic schistosomiasis of man

Optical and electron microscopical evidences of focal matrix degradation were frequently seen in liver sections taken from patients with periportal ("pipe-stem") fibrosis caused by schistosomiasis mansoni. Besides present of focal areas of rarefaction, fragmentation and dispersion of collagen fibers, the enlargend portal spaces also showed hyperplasia of elastic tisue and disarray of smooth muscle fibers following the destrution of portal vein branches. Ultrastructural cahnges represented by focal lytic and/or electron dense alterations of colagen fibrils were similar to those first seen in experimental material and designated as "chronic collagen degradation". Elastin and related microfibrils were also affected by focal condensation, fragmentation, distorsion and dissolution. Schistosome eggs were scanty in the tissue sections examined. Matrix degradation represented involuting changes related to the progressive diminution of parasite aggression, which occurs spontaneously with age or after cure by chemotherapy. Changes of focal matrix degradation now being described represent the basic morphological counterpart of periportal fibrosis involution documented clinically, especially by ultrasonography, in patients with hepatosplenic schistosomiasis submitted to curative chemotherapy.

Age-targeted chemotherapy for control of urinary schistosomiais in endemic populations

Severity of urinary tract morbidity increases with intensity and duration of Schistosoma haematobium infection. We assessed the ability of yearly drug therapy to control infection intensity and reduce S. haematobium-associated disease in children 5-21 years old in an endemic area of Kenya. In year I, therapy resulted in reduced prevalence (66% to 22%, P < 0.001) and intensity of S. haematobium infection (20 to 2 eggs/10 mL, urine), with corresponding reductions in the prevalence of hematuria (52% to 19%, P < 0.001). There was not, however, a significant first-year effect on prevalence of urinary tract abnormalities detected by ultrasound. Repeat therapy in years 2 and 3 resulted in significant regression of hydronephrosis and bladder abnormalities (41% to 6% prevalence, P< 0.001), and further reductions in proteinuria. Repeat age-targeted therapy was associated with decreased prevalence of infection among young children (< 5yr) entering into the target age group. Two years after discontinuation of therapy, intensity of S. haematobium infection and ultrasound abnormalities remained suppressed, but hematuria prevalence began to increase (to 33% in 1989). Reinstitution of annual therapy in 1989 and 1990 reversed this trends. We conclude that annual oral therapy provides an effective strategy for control of morbidity due to S. haematobium on population basis, both through regression of disease in treated individuals, and prevention of infection in untreated subjects.

Sleep structure and cardiometabolic disorders in the general population : the Hypnolaus study

Objectives: Previous studies using subjective assessments have reported associations between sleep quantity and quality and cardiometabolic disorders, but little is known regarding the associ-ations with objective sleep characteristics. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the association between objective sleep measure sand metabolic syndrome (MS), hypertension, diabetes and obesity. Methods: 2162 subjects (51.2% women, mean age 58,11.1) from the general population were evaluated for hypertension,diabetes, overweight/obesity and MS, and underwent a full polysom-nography (PSG). PSG measured variables included: Total sleep time(TST), percentage and time spent in slow wave sleep (SWS) and in rapid eye movement (REM) sleep, sleep efficiency and arousal index(ArI) Results: In univariate analyses, MS was associated with decreased TST, SWS, REM sleep, sleep efficiency and increased ArI. After adjustment for age, gender, smoking, alcohol, physical activity, drugsthat affect sleep and depression, the ArI remained significantly higher, but the difference disappeared in subjects without significant sleep disordered breathing (SDB). Differences in sleep structure were also found according to the presence or absence of hypertension, diabetes and overweight/obesity in univariate analysis. However, these differences were attenuated after multivariate adjustment and after excluding subjects with significant SDB. Conclusions: In this population-based sample we found significant associations between sleep structure and MS, hypertension, diabetes and obesity. However, these associations were cancelled after multivariate adjustment. We conclude that normal variations in sleep contribute little if any to MS and associated disorders.

Prevalence, awareness, treatment and control of hypertension in a Swiss general population: the CoLaus Study

Objective: To assess the prevalence levels of awareness, treatment and control of hypertension and associated factors in Switzerland. Methods: Population-based cross-sectional study of 6,182 subjects (52.5% women) aged 35-75 years living in Lausanne, Switzerland. Hypertension was defined as blood pressure ≥140/90 mm Hg or current antihypertensive medication. Results: The overall prevalence of hypertension was 36% (95% CI: 35-38%). Among hypertensive participants, 63% were aware of having hypertension. Among aware hypertensives, 78% were treated, and among treated hypertensives 48% were controlled (BP <140/90 mmHg). In multivariate analysis, prevalence of hypertension was associated with older age, male gender, low educational level, high alcohol intake, awareness of diabetes, awareness of dyslipidaemia, obesity and parental history of myocardial infarction (MI). Awareness of hypertension was associated with older age, female gender, awareness of diabetes, awareness of dyslipidaemia, obesity and parental history of MI. Control was associated with younger age, higher educational level and no alcohol intake. Alone or in combination, sartans were the most often prescribed antihypertensive medication category (41%), followed by diuretics, beta-blockers, ACE inhibitors and calcium channel blockers. Only 31% of treated hypertensives were taking ≥2 antihypertensive medications. Conclusion: Although more than half of the participants with hypertension were aware of being hypertensive and more than three quarters of them received a pharmacological treatment, less than half of those treated were adequately controlled. Treated hypertensive subjects should be followed up more closely.

Urinary oxalate and urate to creatinine ratios in a healthy pediatric population.

The purpose of the study was to determine reference percentiles for the urinary (U) oxalate (Ox) and urate (Ura) to creatinine (Cr) concentration ratios in the second morning urine of healthy infants, children, and adolescents. The urinary oxalate and urate to creatinine ratios were determined in the spontaneously voided second morning urine sample. To test reproducibility, two urine samples were analyzed on 2 consecutive weeks in 63% of the subjects. Three hundred eighty-four healthy children (181 girls, 203 boys), aged 1 month to 17 years, from nurseries, kindergartens, and schools of Lausanne, Switzerland, were studied. The 5th and 95th percentiles were determined from the total number of urine samples (627) after confirmation that there was no order effect between repeated measurements and there were no significant sex differences. A nonlinear regression analysis in terms of age was used to smooth the calculated percentiles. In this manner, curves were obtained from which the reference values can be read at any given age. The 95th percentiles decreased with age: for UOx/Cr from 0.175 mg/mg (0.22 mol/mol) at 1 to 6 months to 0.048 mg/mg (0.06 mol/mol) from 7 years and beyond; and UUra/Cr from 2.378 mg/mg (1.6 mol/mol) at 1 to 6 months to 0.594 mg/mg (0.4 mol/mol) in adolescence. We provide 5th and 95th percentile curves for the UOx/Cr and UUra/Cr ratios determined from the second morning urine samples in a large cohort of healthy infants, children, and adolescents. Values were determined by standard analytical chemical techniques and were analyzed by powerful statistical methods. The calculated 95th percentile for the UOx/Cr values fell rather rapidly and reached normal adult values by the age of 7 years, whereas for UUra/Cr, the 95th percentile decreased slowly and stabilized in adolescence.