Falência bancária e capital regulatório: evidência para o Brasil

Este trabalho tem como proposta estudar se o nível de capital sobre os ativos ponderados pelo risco, o Índice de Basileia, mantido pelos intermediários financeiros, pode servir como preditor de falência dos intermediários financeiros. Um dos desafios apresentados foi o fato do Índice de Basileia reportado para cada instituição estar disponível ao público apenas a partir de 2009, ao passo que grande parte das falências bancárias no Brasil ocorreram no período entre 1995 e 2005. Dessa forma, construindo um Índice de Basileia Sintético (IBS) para o período de dezembro de 1995 a dezembro de 2014, testou-se a hipótese de que um nível mais alto de capital em relação aos ativos de risco diminui a probabilidade de falência da instituição. São utilizados modelos logit com variável binária discreta e análise survival, possibilitando estimar o quanto que um aumento no nível de capital proporciona em tempo de vida para a instituição. A amostra estudada é composta por 313 intermediários financeiros atuando no Brasil, tanto de controle público quanto privado, com dados semestrais. Em linha com estudos anteriores, foi encontrada evidência empírica apontando para uma relação inversa entre nível de capital e probabilidade de falência, tanto com o emprego de logit como de survival.

Conexões políticas e o desempenho empresarial pós-aquisição no Brasil

Este estudo buscou analisar o efeito das conexões políticas das empresas no nível do Conselho de Administração sobre o desempenho, após o processo de aquisição. Estudos anteriores já identificaram esta relação apontando efeitos, de positivos a neutros das conexões políticas sobre o desempenho, além de influenciar a frequência e o tamanho das operações (BROCKMAN; RUI; ZOU, 2013; LIU; WANG; ZHANG, 2013). Esta pesquisa estende tais análises aplicando o modelo para as empresas brasileiras além de incluir informações sobre o tipo de conexão política para avaliar diferentes impactos. Este estudo foi conduzido dentro do âmbito das empresas compradoras listadas na BM&Bovespa entre os anos de 1999 e 2014, utilizando modelos econométricos de Propensity Score Matching e dados em painel. Partindo da análise de currículos dos conselheiros, foram codificados os diferentes tipos de conexão, como instituições financeiras públicas e de desenvolvimento e agências reguladoras além das formas tradicionais de conexões políticas (FACCIO, 2006). Com base nos resultados foi encontrada uma associação entre as conexões com agências reguladoras e o desempenho pós-aquisição das empresas adquirentes, bem como indícios de uma relação entre os efeitos das conexões com bancos públicos e de desenvolvimento. Não foi possível apontar resultados para as conexões políticas tradicionais

Efeitos do tratamento superficial da sílica ativa com soluções de ácidos nítrico e fosfórico em propriedades do concreto

The addition of active silica potentially improves the quality of concrete due to its high reactivity and pore refinement effect. The reactivity of silica is likely related to its charge density. Variations in surface charge alter the reactivity of the material consequently affecting the properties of concrete. The present study aimed at investigating variations in the charge density of silica as a function of acid treatments using nitric or phosphoric acid and different pH values (2.0, 4.0 and 6.0). Effects on concrete properties including slump, mechanical strength, permeability and chloride corrosion were evaluated. To that end, a statistical analysis was carried out and empirical models that correlate studied parameters (pH, acid and cement) with concrete properties were established. The quality of the models was tested by variance analysis. The results revealed that the addition of silica was efficiency in improving the properties of concrete, especially the electrochemical parameters. The addition of silica treated using nitric acid at pH = 4.0 displayed the best cement performance including highest strength, reduced permeability and lowest corrosion current

Atividade antiplasmódica e toxicológica de plantas medicinais usadas popularmente no Brasil : uma abordagem etnobotânica

Malaria is a disease of global distribution, recognized by governments around the world as a serious public health problem, affecting more than 109 countries and territories and endangering more than 3.3 billion people. The economic costs of this disease are also relevant: the African continent itself has malaria-related costs of about $ 12 billion annually. Nowadays, in addition to chloroquine, Plasmodium falciparum is resistant to many drugs used in the treatment of malaria, such as amodiaquine, mefloquine, quinine and sulfadoxine-pyrimethamine; resistance of Plasmodium vivax to treatments, although less studied, is also reported. Nature, in general, is responsible for the production of most known organic substances, and the plant kingdom is responsible for the most of the chemical diversity known and reported in the literature. Most medicinal plants commercialized in Brazil, however, are of exotic origin, which makes the search for endemic medicinal plants, besides a patent necessity, a fascinating subject of academic research and development. This study aimed to: (i) verify the antimalarial activity of ethanolic and hydroalcoholic extracts of Boerhavia paniculata Rich. And acetonic extract of Clethra scabra Pers. in Swiss albino mice infected by Plasmodium berghei NK65, (ii) observe possible combined effects between the course of infection by P. berghei NK65 and administration of these extracts in Swiss albino mice, and (iii) conduct a preliminary study of the acute toxicity of these extracts in Swiss albino mice. All extracts notable pharmacological activities - with parasite infections inhibitions ranging from 22% to 54%.These characteristics suggest that the activities are relevant, although comparatively lower than the activity displayed by the positive control group (always above 90%). The general framework of survival analysis demonstrates an overall reduction in survival times for all groups. Necroscopy has not pointed no change in color, shape, size and/or consistency in the evaluated organs - the only exception was the livers of rats submitted to treatment to hydroalcoholic extracts: these organs have been presented in a slightly congestive aspect with mass increasing roughly 28% higher than the other two groups and a p-value of 0.0365. The 250 mg/Kg ethanolic group has been pointed out by the Dunn s post test, as the only class with simultaneous inequalities (p<0.05) between positive and negative control groups. The extracts, notably ethanol extract, have, in fact, a vestigial antimalarial activity, although well below from the ones perceived to chloroquine-treated groups; nevertheless, the survival times of the animals fed with the extracts do not rise by presence of such therapy. Both the toxicopharmacological studies of the synergism between the clinical course of malaria and administration of extracts and the isolated evaluation of toxicity allow us to affirm the absence of toxicity of the extracts at the level of CNS and ANS, as well as their non-influence on food and water consumption patterns, until dosages of 500 mg/Kg. Necroscopic analysis leads us to deduct a possible hepatotoxic effect of hydroalcoholic extract at dosages of 500 mg/Kg, and an innocuous tissue activity of the ethanol extract, in the same dosage. We propose a continuation of the studies of these extracts, with protocol modifications capable of addressing more clearly and objectively their pharmacological and toxicological aspects

Influência de fatores biopsicossociais sobre a mortalidade de idosos no município de Santa Cruz/RN: um estudo prospectivo

The aging process if characterizes for a complex events network, from multidimensional nature, that encloses biological, social, psychic and functional aspects. The alteration of one or more aspects can speed up the aging process, anticipating limitations and until the death in the aged. For an adjusted confrontation of this question is necessary an interdisciplinary vision, in which the some areas of the knowledge can interact and with this to intervenes of the best possible form. Then, information derived from studies of aspects related to incidence, morbidity-mortality and transition patterns, involved in the health-illness process can more accurately identify risk groups thereby establishing links between social factors, illness, incapacity and death. Thus, this study aimed to identify, by a multidimensional vision, the risk factors of mortality in a coorth of elderly in a city in the interior of the state of Rio Grande do Norte (RN), Brazil. A prospective study carried out in Santa Cruz RN, where 310 elderly were randomly selected to form a baseline. The follow-up was 53 months. The predictive variables were divided into sociodemographic, physical health, neuropsychiatric and functional capacity. The statistical analysis carried out by bivariate analysis, survival analysis, followed by binary logistic regression and Cox regression, in the multivariate analysis, considering significant levels p < 0.05 and confidence interval (CI) of 95%. A total of 60 (19.3%) elderly died during the follow-up, where cardiovascular disease was the main cause. The survival was approximately 24.8 months. The study of general survival showed, at 12, 24, 36, and 48 months of observation, a survival rate of 97%, 54%, 31%, and 5% respectively, with a statistical difference in survival only observed for the variables of cognitive function and Basic Activities of Daily Living. In the logistic regression analysis, the risk factors identified were cognitive deficits (OR = 8.74), poor perception of health (OR = 3.89) and dependence for Basic Activities of Daily Living (OR = 3.96). In the Cox analysis, as well as dependence for Basic Activities of Daily Living (HR = 3.17), cognitive deficit (HR = 4.30) and stroke (CVA) (HR = 3.49) continued as independent risk factors for death. The risk factors found in the study can be interpreted as the primary predictors for death among elderly members of the community. Therefore, improvements in health conditions, with actions towards sustaining an autonomous life with special attention for elderly with cognitive impairment, could mean additional healthy quality of life, resulting in the reduction of premature mortality in this population

A influência da responsabilidade social empresarial na satisfação e fidelidade do cliente : um estudo com compradores de automóveis

This study presents an investigation of the influence of Corporate Social Responsibility (CSR) in customer s satisfaction and loyalty through a study with car s buyers, besides that, it aims to contribute to conceptual models of satisfaction and loyalty analysis by applying the model of Johnson et al. (2001), adapted for the introduction of variables of CSR and conscious consumption, in a car dealership in Natal / RN. The methodology has a descriptive quantitative approach and for the analysis results were applied statistical methods of simple and multiple linear regression analysis, descriptive analysis and exploratory analysis. The field research provided 90 valid forms. The results show that CSR affects the image of the company studied and is also one of the elements of the compound of satisfaction and loyalty. This study concludes that CSR should be considered in the strategic and marketing actions of firms

Metodologia estatística na solução do problema do caixeiro viajante e na avaliação de algoritmos : um estudo aplicado à transgenética computacional

The problems of combinatory optimization have involved a large number of researchers in search of approximative solutions for them, since it is generally accepted that they are unsolvable in polynomial time. Initially, these solutions were focused on heuristics. Currently, metaheuristics are used more for this task, especially those based on evolutionary algorithms. The two main contributions of this work are: the creation of what is called an -Operon- heuristic, for the construction of the information chains necessary for the implementation of transgenetic (evolutionary) algorithms, mainly using statistical methodology - the Cluster Analysis and the Principal Component Analysis; and the utilization of statistical analyses that are adequate for the evaluation of the performance of the algorithms that are developed to solve these problems. The aim of the Operon is to construct good quality dynamic information chains to promote an -intelligent- search in the space of solutions. The Traveling Salesman Problem (TSP) is intended for applications based on a transgenetic algorithmic known as ProtoG. A strategy is also proposed for the renovation of part of the chromosome population indicated by adopting a minimum limit in the coefficient of variation of the adequation function of the individuals, with calculations based on the population. Statistical methodology is used for the evaluation of the performance of four algorithms, as follows: the proposed ProtoG, two memetic algorithms and a Simulated Annealing algorithm. Three performance analyses of these algorithms are proposed. The first is accomplished through the Logistic Regression, based on the probability of finding an optimal solution for a TSP instance by the algorithm being tested. The second is accomplished through Survival Analysis, based on a probability of the time observed for its execution until an optimal solution is achieved. The third is accomplished by means of a non-parametric Analysis of Variance, considering the Percent Error of the Solution (PES) obtained by the percentage in which the solution found exceeds the best solution available in the literature. Six experiments have been conducted applied to sixty-one instances of Euclidean TSP with sizes of up to 1,655 cities. The first two experiments deal with the adjustments of four parameters used in the ProtoG algorithm in an attempt to improve its performance. The last four have been undertaken to evaluate the performance of the ProtoG in comparison to the three algorithms adopted. For these sixty-one instances, it has been concluded on the grounds of statistical tests that there is evidence that the ProtoG performs better than these three algorithms in fifty instances. In addition, for the thirty-six instances considered in the last three trials in which the performance of the algorithms was evaluated through PES, it was observed that the PES average obtained with the ProtoG was less than 1% in almost half of these instances, having reached the greatest average for one instance of 1,173 cities, with an PES average equal to 3.52%. Therefore, the ProtoG can be considered a competitive algorithm for solving the TSP, since it is not rare in the literature find PESs averages greater than 10% to be reported for instances of this size.

Determination of amfepramone hydrochloride, fenproporex, and diazepam in so-called natural capsules used in the treatment of obesity

A simple and rapid method was developed for the determination of amfepramone hydrochloride, fenprorex, and diazepam in capsules using high performance liquid chromatography (HPLC) with UV detection. This procedure provided conditions for the separation of the active ingredient from the complex matrices of the dosage forms by extraction in methanol. Isocratic reversed phase chromatography was performed using acetonitrile, methanol, and aqueous 0,1% ammonium carbonate (50:10:40) as a mobile phase, LiChrospher 100 RP 18 column (125 x 5 mm id, 5 mu m), a column temperature of 25 +/- 1 degrees C and detection at 230 nm.The calibration curves were linear over a wide concentration range (20-2000 mu g.mL(-1) to amfepramone hydrochloride, 8-800 mu g.mL(-1) to fenproporex, and 4-200 mu g.mL(-1) to diazepam) and good analytical recovery (87.1 to 107.8%) was obtained. The method is accurate and precise, as well as having advantages such as simplicity and short duration of analysis. Twenty samples of pharmaceutical preparations labelled as natural products were analysed. Anorectics and diazepam, were detected in 40% of the samples.

High-performance liquid chromatographic determination of amfepramone hydrochloride, mazindol, and diazepam in tablets

Simple and rapid procedures were developed for the quantification of amfepramone hydrochloride and diazepam and mazindol and diazepam in tablets using high performance liquid chromatography (HPLC) with UV detection. These techniques provided conditions for the separation of each active ingredient from the complex matrices of the dosage forms by dilution or extraction in methanol. Isocratic reversed phase chromatography was performed using acetonitrile, methanol, and aqueous 0,1% ammonium carbonate (70:10:20, v/v/v) as a mobile phase, Radial-Pak C-18 column (100 x 8 mm id, 4 mu m), a column temperature of 25+/-1 degrees C and detection at 255 nm. The calibration curves were linear over a wide concentration range (100-1000 mu g.mL(-1) to amfepramone hydrochloride and mazindol and 10-100 mu g.mL(-1) to diazepam) with good correlation factors of 0.9978, 0.9956 and 0.9997 for amfepramone hydrochloride, mazindol, and diazepam, respectively.Mean recoveries obtained from the two kinds of samples ranged from 83.2 to 102.5%, with coefficients of variation ranging from 1.0 to 6.1.These results demonstrated the efficiency of the proposed methods, as well as advantages such as simplicity and short duration of analysis.

Modelos de sobrevivência com fração de cura e erro de medida nas covariáveis

In this work, we study the survival cure rate model proposed by Yakovlev et al. (1993), based on a competing risks structure concurring to cause the event of interest, and the approach proposed by Chen et al. (1999), where covariates are introduced to model the risk amount. We focus the measurement error covariates topics, considering the use of corrected score method in order to obtain consistent estimators. A simulation study is done to evaluate the behavior of the estimators obtained by this method for finite samples. The simulation aims to identify not only the impact on the regression coefficients of the covariates measured with error (Mizoi et al. 2007) but also on the coefficients of covariates measured without error. We also verify the adequacy of the piecewise exponential distribution to the cure rate model with measurement error. At the end, model applications involving real data are made

Modelos de sobrevivência com fração de cura e omissão nas covariáveis

In this work we study the survival cure rate model proposed by Yakovlev (1993) that are considered in a competing risk setting. Covariates are introduced for modeling the cure rate and we allow some covariates to have missing values. We consider only the cases by which the missing covariates are categorical and implement the EM algorithm via the method of weights for maximum likelihood estimation. We present a Monte Carlo simulation experiment to compare the properties of the estimators based on this method with those estimators under the complete case scenario. We also evaluate, in this experiment, the impact in the parameter estimates when we increase the proportion of immune and censored individuals among the not immune one. We demonstrate the proposed methodology with a real data set involving the time until the graduation for the undergraduate course of Statistics of the Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Norte

The Poisson-exponential regression model under different latent activation schemes

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Estimação de parâmetros genéticos para resistência à infecção por IMNV em camarões Litopenaeus vannamei por meio de análise de sobrevivência

The main specie of marine shrimp raised at Brazil and in the world is Litopenaeus vannamei, which had arrived in Brazil in the `80s. However, the entry of infectious myonecrosis virus (IMNV), causing the infectious myonecrosis disease in marine shrimps, brought economic losses to the national shrimp farming, with up to 70% of mortality in the shrimp production. In this way, the objective was to evaluate the survival of shrimps Litopenaeus vannamei infected with IMNV using the non parametric estimator of Kaplan-Meier and a model of frailty for grouped data. It were conducted three tests of viral challenges lasting 20 days each, at different periods of the year, keeping the parameters of pH, temperature, oxygen and ammonia monitored daily. It was evaluated 60 full-sib families of L. vannamei infected by IMNV in each viral challenge. The confirmation of the infection by IMNV was performed using the technique of PCR in real time through Sybr Green dye. Using the Kaplan-Meier estimator it was possible to detect significant differences (p <0.0001) between the survival curves of families and tanks and also in the joint analysis between viral challenges. It were estimated in each challenge, genetic parameters such as genetic value of family, it`s respective rate risk (frailty), and heritability in the logarithmic scale through the frailty model for grouped data. The heritability estimates were respectively 0.59; 0.36; and 0.59 in the viral challenges 1; 2; and 3, and it was also possible to identify families that have lower and higher rates of risk for the disease. These results can be used for selecting families more resistant to the IMNV infection and to include characteristic of disease resistance in L. vannamei into the genetic improvement programs

On relaxed LMI-based design for fuzzy controllers

Relaxed conditions for stability of nonlinear continuous-time systems given by fuzzy models axe presented. A theoretical analysis shows that the proposed method provides better or at least the same results of the methods presented in the literature. Digital simulations exemplify this fact. This result is also used for fuzzy regulators design. The nonlinear systems are represented by fuzzy models proposed by Takagi and Sugeno. The stability analysis and the design of controllers axe described by LMIs (Linear Matrix Inequalities), that can be solved efficiently using convex programming techniques.

On relaxed LMI-based designs for fuzzy regulators and fuzzy observers

Relaxed conditions for stability of nonlinear, continuous and discrete-time systems given by fuzzy models are presented. A theoretical analysis shows that the proposed methods provide better or at least the same results of the methods presented in the literature. Numerical results exemplify this fact. These results are also used for fuzzy regulators and observers designs. The nonlinear systems are represented by fuzzy models proposed by Takagi and Sugeno. The stability analysis and the design of controllers are described by linear matrix inequalities, that can be solved efficiently using convex programming techniques. The specification of the decay rate, constrains on control input and output are also discussed.