Improving climate change detection through optimal seasonal averaging: the case of the North Atlantic jet and European precipitation

The detection of anthropogenic climate change can be improved by recognising the seasonality in the climate change response. This is demonstrated for the North Atlantic jet (zonal wind at 850 hPa, U850) and European precipitation responses projected by the CMIP5 climate models. The U850 future response is characterised by a marked seasonality: an eastward extension of the North Atlantic jet into Europe in November-April, and a poleward shift in May-October. Under the RCP8.5 scenario, the multi-model mean response in U850 in these two extended seasonal means emerges by 2035-2040 for the lower--latitude features and by 2050-2070 for the higher--latitude features, relative to the 1960-1990 climate. This is 5-15 years earlier than when evaluated in the traditional meteorological seasons (December--February, June--August), and it results from an increase in the signal to noise ratio associated with the spatial coherence of the response within the extended seasons. The annual mean response lacks important information on the seasonality of the response without improving the signal to noise ratio. The same two extended seasons are demonstrated to capture the seasonality of the European precipitation response to climate change and to anticipate its emergence by 10-20 years. Furthermore, some of the regional responses, such as the Mediterranean precipitation decline and the U850 response in North Africa in the extended winter, are projected to emerge by 2020-2025, according to the models with a strong response. Therefore, observations might soon be useful to test aspects of the atmospheric circulation response predicted by some of the CMIP5 models.

The dependence of wintertime Mediterranean precipitation on the atmospheric circulation response to climate change

Climate models indicate a future wintertime precipitation reduction in the Mediterranean region but there is large uncertainty in the amplitude of the projected change. We analyse CMIP5 climate model output to quantify the role of atmospheric circulation in the Mediterranean precipitation change. It is found that a simple circulation index, i.e. the 850 hPa zonal wind (U850) in North Africa, well describes the year to year fluctuations in the area-averaged Mediterranean precipitation, with positive (i.e. westerly) U850 anomalies in North Africa being associated with positive precipitation anomalies. Under climate change, U850 in North Africa and the Mediterranean precipitation are both projected to decrease consistently with the relationship found in the inter-annual variability. This enables us to estimate that about 85% of the CMIP5 mean precipitation response and 80% of the variance in the inter-model spread are related to changes in the atmospheric circulation. In contrast, there is no significant correlation between the mean precipitation response and the global-mean surface warming across the models. It follows that the uncertainty in cold-season Mediterranean precipitation projection will not be narrowed unless the uncertainty in the atmospheric circulation response is reduced.

Diagnosing links between atmospheric moisture and extreme daily precipitation over the UK

Atmospheric moisture characteristics associated with the heaviest 1% of daily rainfall events affecting regions of the British Isles are analysed over the period 1997–2008. A blended satellite/rain-gauge data set (GPCP-1DD) and regionally averaged daily rain-gauge observations (HadUKP) are combined with the ERA Interim reanalysis. These are compared with simulations from the HadGEM2-A climate model which applied observed sea surface temperature and realistic radiative forcings. Median extreme daily rainfall across the identified events and locations is larger for GPCP (32 mm day−1) than HadUKP and the simulations (∼25 mm day−1). The heaviest observed and simulated daily rainfall events are associated with increased specific humidity and horizontal transport of moisture (median 850 hPa specific humidity of ∼6 g kg−1 and vapour transport of ∼150 g kg−1 m s−1 for both observed and simulated events). Extreme daily rainfall events are less common during spring and summer across much of the British Isles, but in the south east region, they contribute up to 60% of the total number of distinct extreme daily rainfall events during these months. Compared to winter events, the summer events over south east Britain are associated with a greater magnitude and more southerly location of moisture maxima and less spatially extensive regions of enhanced moisture transport. This contrasting dependence of extreme daily rainfall on moisture characteristics implies a range of driving mechanisms that depend upon location and season. Higher spatial and temporal resolution data are required to explore these processes further, which is vital in assessing future projected changes in rainfall and associated flooding.

Mathematical relationships between scoring parameters in capped tendering

Mathematical relationships between Scoring Parameters can be used in Economic Scoring Formulas (ESF) in tendering to distribute the score among bidders in the economic part of a proposal. Each contracting authority must set an ESF when publishing tender specifications and the strategy of each bidder will differ depending on the ESF selected and the weight of the overall proposal scoring. This paper introduces the various mathematical relationships and density distributions that describe and inter-relate not only the main Scoring Parameters but the main Forecasting Parameters in any capped tender (those whose price is upper-limited). Forecasting Parameters, as variables that can be known in advance before the deadline of a tender is reached, together with Scoring Parameters constitute the basis of a future Bid Tender Forecasting Model.

Climate variability and socio-environmental changes in the northern Aegean (NE Mediterranean) during the last 1500 years

We provide new evidence on sea surface temperature (SST) variations and paleoceanographic/paleoenvironmental changes over the past 1500 years for the north Aegean Sea (NE Mediterranean). The reconstructions are based on multiproxy analyses, obtained from the high resolution (decadal to multidecadal) marine record M2 retrieved from the Athos basin. Reconstructed SSTs show an increase from ca. 850 to 950 AD and from ca. 1100 to 1300 AD. A cooling phase of almost 1.5 �C is observed from ca. 1600 AD to 1700 AD. This seems to have been the starting point of a continuous SST warming trend until the end of the reconstructed period, interrupted by two prominent cooling events at 1832 ± 15 AD and 1995 ± 1 AD. Application of an adaptive Kernel smoothing suggests that the current warming in the reconstructed SSTs of the north Aegean might be unprecedented in the context of the past 1500 years. Internal variability in atmospheric/oceanic circulations systems as well as external forcing as solar radiation and volcanic activity could have affected temperature variations in the north Aegean Sea over the past 1500 years. The marked temperature drop of approximately ~2 �C at 1832 ± 15 yr AD could be related to the 1809 АD ‘unknown’ and the 1815 AD Tambora volcanic eruptions. Paleoenvironmental proxy-indices of the M2 record show enhanced riverine/continental inputs in the northern Aegean after ca. 1450 AD. The paleoclimatic evidence derived from the M2 record is combined with a socio-environmental study of the history of the north Aegean region. We show that the cultivation of temperature-sensitive crops, i.e. walnut, vine and olive, co-occurred with stable and warmer temperatures, while its end coincided with a significant episode of cooler temperatures. Periods of agricultural growth in Macedonia coincide with periods of warmer and more stable SSTs, but further exploration is required in order to identify the causal links behind the observed phenomena. The Black Death likely caused major changes in agricultural activity in the north Aegean region, as reflected in the pollen data from land sites of Macedonia and the M2 proxy-reconstructions. Finally, we conclude that the early modern peaks in mountain vegetation in the Rhodope and Macedonia highlands, visible also in the M2 record, were very likely climate-driven.

Moisture transport and intraseasonal variability in the South America monsoon system

This paper examines moisture transport on intraseasonal timescales over the continent and over the South Atlantic convergence zone (SACZ) during the South America (SA) summer monsoon. Combined Empirical Orthogonal Function analysis (EOFc) of Global Precipitation Climatology Project pentad precipitation, specific humidity, air temperature, zonal and meridional winds at 850 hPa (NCEP/NCAR reanalysis) are performed to identify the large-scale variability of the South America monsoon system and the SACZ. The first EOFc was used as a large-scale index for the South American monsoon (LISAM), whereas the second EOFc characterized the SACZ. LISAM (SACZ) index showed spectral variance on 30-90 (15-20) days and were both band filtered (10-100 days). Intraseasonal wet anomalies were defined when LISAM and SACZ anomalies were above the 75th percentile of their respective distribution. LISAM and SACZ wet events were examined independently of each other and when they occur simultaneously. LISAM wet events were observed with the amplification of wave activity in the Northern Hemisphere and the enhancement of northwesterly cross-equatorial moisture transport over tropical continental SA. Enhanced SACZ was observed with moisture transport from the extratropics of the Southern Hemisphere. Simultaneous LISAM and SACZ wet events are associated with cross-equatorial moisture transport along with moisture transport from Subtropical Southwestern Atlantic.

Effect of Cluster Multi-Diode Light Emitting Diode Therapy (LEDT) on Exercise-Induced Skeletal Muscle Fatigue and Skeletal Muscle Recovery in Humans

Background and Objectives: There are some indications that low-level laser therapy (LLLT) may delay the development of skeletal muscle fatigue during high-intensity exercise. There have also been claims that LED cluster probes may be effective for this application however there are differences between LED and laser sources like spot size, spectral width, power output, etc. In this study we wanted to test if light emitting diode therapy (LEDT) can alter muscle performance, fatigue development and biochemical markers for skeletal muscle recovery in an experimental model of biceps humeri muscle contractions. Study Design/Materials and Methods: Ten male professional volleyball players (23.6 [SD +/- 5.6] years old) entered a randomized double-blinded placebo-controlled crossover trial. Active cluster LEDT (69 LEDs with wavelengths 660/850 nm, 10/30 mW, 30 seconds total irradiation time, 41.7J of total energy irradiated) or an identical placebo LEDT was delivered under double-blinded conditions to the middle of biceps humeri muscle immediately before exercise. All subjects performed voluntary biceps humeri contractions with a workload of 75% of their maximal voluntary contraction force (MVC) until exhaustion. Results: Active LEDT increased the number of biceps humeri contractions by 12.9% (38.60 [SD +/- 9.03] vs. 34.20 [SD +/- 8.68], P = 0.021) and extended the elapsed time to perform contractions by 11.6% (P = 0.036) versus placebo. In addition, post-exercise levels of biochemical markers decreased significantly with active LEDT: Blood Lactate (P = 0.042), Creatine Kinase (P = 0.035), and C-Reative Protein levels (P = 0.030), when compared to placebo LEDT. Conclusion: We conclude that this particular procedure and dose of LEDT immediately before exhaustive biceps humeri contractions, causes a slight delay in the development of skeletal muscle fatigue, decreases post-exercise blood lactate levels and inhibits the release of Creatine Kinase and C-Reative Protein. Lasers Surg. Med. 41:572-577, 2009. (C) 2009 Wiley-Liss, Inc.

Comparison between cold water immersion therapy (CWIT) and light emitting diode therapy (LEDT) in short-term skeletal muscle recovery after high-intensity exercise in athletes-preliminary results

In the last years, phototherapy has becoming a promising tool to improve skeletal muscle recovery after exercise, however, it was not compared with other modalities commonly used with this aim. In the present study we compared the short-term effects of cold water immersion therapy (CWIT) and light emitting diode therapy (LEDT) with placebo LEDT on biochemical markers related to skeletal muscle recovery after high-intensity exercise. A randomized double-blind placebo-controlled crossover trial was performed with six male young futsal athletes. They were treated with CWIT (5A degrees C of temperature [SD +/- 1A degrees]), active LEDT (69 LEDs with wavelengths 660/850 nm, 10/30 mW of output power, 30 s of irradiation time per point, and 41.7 J of total energy irradiated per point, total of ten points irradiated) or an identical placebo LEDT 5 min after each of three Wingate cycle tests. Pre-exercise, post-exercise, and post-treatment measurements were taken of blood lactate levels, creatine kinase (CK) activity, and C-reactive protein (CRP) levels. There were no significant differences in the work performed during the three Wingate tests (p > 0.05). All biochemical parameters increased from baseline values (p < 0.05) after the three exercise tests, but only active LEDT decreased blood lactate levels (p = 0.0065) and CK activity (p = 0.0044) significantly after treatment. There were no significant differences in CRP values after treatments. We concluded that treating the leg muscles with LEDT 5 min after the Wingate cycle test seemed to inhibit the expected post-exercise increase in blood lactate levels and CK activity. This suggests that LEDT has better potential than 5 min of CWIT for improving short-term post-exercise recovery.

Metastable Phase Diagram of Nanocrystalline ZrO(2)-Sc(2)O(3) Solid Solutions

We have investigated the crystal structures and phase transitions of nanocrystalline ZrO(2)-1 to -13 mol % Sc(2)O(3) by synchrotron X-ray powder diffraction and Raman spectroscopy. ZrO(2)-Sc(2)O(3) nanopowders were synthesized by using a stoichiometric nitrate-lysine get-combustion route. Calcination processes at 650 and at 850 degrees C yielded nanocrystalline materials with average crystallite sizes of (10 +/- 1) and (25 +/- 2) nm, respectively. Only metastable tetragonal forms and the cubic phase were identified, whereas the stable monoclinic and rhombohedral phases were not detected in the compositional range analyzed in this work. Differently from the results of investigations reported in the literature for ZrO(2)-Sc(2)O(3) materials with large crystallite sizes, this study demonstrates that, if the crystallite sizes are small enough (in the nanometric range), the metastable t ``-form of the tetragonal phase is retained. We have also determined the t`-t `` and t ``-cubic compositional boundaries at room temperature and analyzed these transitions at high temperature. Finally, using these results, we built up a metastable phase diagram for nanocrystalline compositionally homogeneous ZrO(2)-Sc(2)O(3) solid solutions that strongly differs from that previously determined from compositionally homogeneous ZrO(2)-Sc(2)O(3), Solid solutions with much larger crystallite sizes.

Nuclear dependence of charm production

Using data taken by SELEX during the 1996-1997 fixed target run at Fermilab, we study the production of charmed hadrons on copper and carbon targets with Sigma(-), p, pi(-), and pi(+) beams. Parametrizing the dependence of the inclusive production cross section on the atomic number A as A(alpha), we determine alpha for D(+), D(0), D(s)(+), D(+)(2010), Lambda(+)(c), and their respective anti-particles, as a function of their transverse momentum p(t) and scaled longitudinal momentum x(F). Within our statistics there is no dependence of alpha on x(F) for any charm species for the interval 0.1 < x(F) < 1.0. The average value of alpha for charm production by pion beams is alpha(meson) = 0.850 +/- 0.028. This is somewhat larger than the corresponding average alpha(baryon) = 0.755 +/- 0.016 for charm production by baryon beams (Sigma(-), p).

New treatment of cellulite with infrared-LED illumination applied during high-intensity treadmill training

Phototherapy improves cellular activation which is an important factor for the treatment of cellulite. The objective of this research was to develop and evaluate the effects of a new (noninvasive and nonpharmacological) clinical procedure to improve body aesthetics: infrared-LED (850 nm) plus treadmill training. Twenty women (25-55 years old) participated in this study. They were separated in two groups: the control group, which carried out only the treadmill training (n = 10), and the LED group, with phototherapy during the treadmill training (n - 10). The training was performed for 45 minutes twice a week over 3 months at intensities between 85% and 90% maximal heart rate (HR(max)). The irradiation parameters were 39 mW/cm(2) and a fluence of 106 J/cm(2). The treatment was evaluated by interpreting body composition parameters, photographs and thermography. This was primarily a treatment for cellulite with a reduction of saddlebag and thigh circumference. At the same time, the treadmill training prevented an increase of body fat, as well as the loss of lean mass. Moreover, thermal images of the temperature modification of the thighs are presented. These positive effects can result in a further improvement of body aesthetics using infrared-LED together with treadmill training.

Electronic structure and optical properties of BaMoO(4) powders

Barium molybdate (BaMoO(4)) powders were synthesized by the co-precipitation method and processed in microwave-hydrothermal at 140 degrees C for different times. These powders were characterized by X-ray diffraction (XRD), Fourier transform Raman (FT-Raman), Fourier transform infrared (FT-IR), ultraviolet-visible (UV-vis) absorption spectroscopies and photoluminescence (PL) measurements. XRD patterns and FT-Raman spectra showed that these powders present a scheelite-type tetragonal structure without the presence of deleterious phases. FT-IR spectra exhibited a large absorption band situated at around 850.4 cm(-1), which is associated to the Mo-O antisymmetric stretching vibrations into the [MoO(4)] clusters. UV-vis absorption spectra indicated a reduction in the intermediary energy levels within band gap with the processing time evolution. First-principles quantum mechanical calculations based on the density functional theory were employed in order to understand the electronic structure (band structure and density of states) of this material. The powders when excited with different wavelengths (350 nm and 488 nm) presented variations. This phenomenon was explained through a model based in the presence of intermediary energy levels (deep and shallow holes) within the band gap. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Very low optical absorptions and analyte concentrations in water measured by Optimized Thermal Lens Spectrometry

Thermal Lens Spectrometry has traditionally been carried out in the single-beam and the mode-mismatched dual-beam configurations. Recently, a much more sensitive dual-beam TL setup was developed, where the probe beam is expanded and collimated. This feature optimizes Thermal Lens (TL) signal and allows the use of thicker samples, further improving the sensitivity. In this paper, we have made comparisons between the conventional and optimized TL configurations, and presented applications such as measurements of very low absorptions and concentrations in water and Cr(III) aqueous solution in the UV-vis range. For pure water we found linear absorption coefficients as low as the Raman scattering one due to the stretching vibrational modes of OH group. The detection limit was estimated 1 x 10(-6) cm(-1) with a 180-mW excitation power using a 100-mm cell length. This sensitivity is very high, considering that water has a photothermal enhancement factor similar to 33 times smaller than CCl(4), for example. For Cr(III) species in aqueous solution, the limit of detection (LOD) was estimated in similar to 40 ng mL(-1) at 514 nm, or similar to 10ng mL(-1) at 405 nm, which is similar to 30 times smaller than the LOD achieved with conventional transmission techniques. The more recent TL configuration is very attractive to obtain absorption spectra, since the result does not depend critically on the beam parameters, unlike the other configurations. The main drawbacks of this optimized TL configuration are the longer acquisition time and the need for larger samples. (C) 2011 Published by Elsevier B.V.

Development of zirconia-magnesia/zirconia-yttria composite solid electrolytes

Composite solid electrolytes were prepared by thoroughly mixing ZrO2:8 mol% MgO (Z8Mg) and ZrO(2):3 mol% Y(2)O(3) (Z3Y) ceramic powders followed by pressing and sintering at 1500 degrees C/1 h. The properties of the sintered pellets were studied by X-ray diffraction for evaluation of the structural phases by the Rietveld method, by high-temperature dilatometry for analysis of the thermal shrinkage/expansion behavior, and by impedance spectroscopy for determination of the oxide ion conductivity. The x(Z8Mg)+(1-x)(Z3Y) specimens, x= 0.2, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.8 and 1.0, are partially stabilized (monoclinic, cubic and tetragonal phases) with density >94% of the theoretical density and show thermal shock resistance and electrical conductivity values suitable for high-temperature oxygen gas detection. One-end closed tube samples of the composite solid electrolytes were assembled in Pt/Z8Mg+Z3Y/Cr+Cr(2)O(3)/Pt electrochemical cells for exposure to different levels of oxygen in the 1-850 ppm range. The total electrical conductivity increases for increasing the relative Z3Y content. Addition of Z3Y to Z8Mg (80 wt.%-20 wt.%) suppresses the electronic contribution to the electrical conductivity at 620 degrees C. (c) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Metamorphic P-T evolution of granulites in the central Ribeira Fold Belt, SE Brazil

Pseudosections, geothermobarometric estimates and careful petrographic observations of gneissic migmatites and granulites from Neoproterozoic central Ribeira Fold Belt (SE Brazil) were performed in order to quantify the metamorphic P-T conditions during prograde and retrograde evolution of the Brasiliano Orogeny. Results establish a prograde metamorphic trajectory from amphibolite facies conditions to metamorphic peak (T = 850 +/- 50 A degrees C; P = 8 +/- 1 kbar) that promoted widespread dehydrationmelting of 30 to 40% of the gneisses and high-grade granitization. After the metamorphic peak, migmatites evolved with cooling and decompression to T a parts per thousand 500 A degrees C and P a parts per thousand 5 kbar coupled with aH2O increase, replacing the high-grade paragenesis plagioclase-quartz-K-feldspar-garnet by quartz-biotite-sillimanite-(muscovite). Cordierite absence, microtextural observations and P-T results constrain the migmatite metamorphic evolution in the pseudosections as a clockwise P-T path with retrograde cooling and decompression. High-temperature conditions further dehydrated the lower crust with biotite and amphibole-dehydration melting and granulite formation coupled with 10% melt generation. Granulites can thus be envisaged as middle to lower crust dehydrated restites. Granulites were slowly (nearly isobarically) cooled, followed by late exhumation/retrograde rapid decompression and cooling, reflecting a two step P-T path. This retrograde evolution, coupled with water influx, chemically reequilibrated the rocks from granulite to amphibolite/greenschist facies, promoting the replacement of the plagioclase-quartz-garnet-hypersthene peak assemblage by quartz-biotite- K-feldspar symplectites.