Flood triggering in Switzerland: the role of daily to monthly preceding precipitation

Determining the role of different precipitation periods for peak discharge generation is crucial for both projecting future changes in flood probability and for short- and medium-range flood forecasting. In this study, catchment-averaged daily precipitation time series are analyzed prior to annual peak discharge events (floods) in Switzerland. The high number of floods considered – more than 4000 events from 101 catchments have been analyzed – allows to derive significant information about the role of antecedent precipitation for peak discharge generation. Based on the analysis of precipitation times series, a new separation of flood-related precipitation periods is proposed: (i) the period 0 to 1 day before flood days, when the maximum flood-triggering precipitation rates are generally observed, (ii) the period 2 to 3 days before flood days, when longer-lasting synoptic situations generate "significantly higher than normal" precipitation amounts, and (iii) the period from 4 days to 1 month before flood days when previous wet episodes may have already preconditioned the catchment. The novelty of this study lies in the separation of antecedent precipitation into the precursor antecedent precipitation (4 days before floods or earlier, called PRE-AP) and the short range precipitation (0 to 3 days before floods, a period when precipitation is often driven by one persistent weather situation like e.g., a stationary low-pressure system). A precise separation of "antecedent" and "peak-triggering" precipitation is not attempted. Instead, the strict definition of antecedent precipitation periods permits a direct comparison of all catchments. The precipitation accumulating 0 to 3 days before an event is the most relevant for floods in Switzerland. PRE-AP precipitation has only a weak and region-specific influence on flood probability. Floods were significantly more frequent after wet PRE-AP periods only in the Jura Mountains, in the western and eastern Swiss plateau, and at the outlet of large lakes. As a general rule, wet PRE-AP periods enhance the flood probability in catchments with gentle topography, high infiltration rates, and large storage capacity (karstic cavities, deep soils, large reservoirs). In contrast, floods were significantly less frequent after wet PRE-AP periods in glacial catchments because of reduced melt. For the majority of catchments however, no significant correlation between precipitation amounts and flood occurrences is found when the last 3 days before floods are omitted in the precipitation amounts. Moreover, the PRE-AP was not higher for extreme floods than for annual floods with a high frequency and was very close to climatology for all floods. The fact that floods are not significantly more frequent nor more intense after wet PRE-AP is a clear indicator of a short discharge memory of Pre-Alpine, Alpine and South Alpine Swiss catchments. Our study poses the question whether the impact of long-term precursory precipitation for floods in such catchments is not overestimated in the general perception. The results suggest that the consideration of a 3–4 days precipitation period should be sufficient to represent (understand, reconstruct, model, project) Swiss Alpine floods.

Marginal lands or marginal people? Analysing key processes determining the outcomes of large-scale land acquisitions in Lao PDR and Cambodia

This chapter aims to overcome the gap existing between case study research, which typically provides qualitative and process-based insights, and national or global inventories that typically offer spatially explicit and quantitative analysis of broader patterns, and thus to present adequate evidence for policymaking regarding large-scale land acquisitions. Therefore, the chapter links spatial patterns of land acquisitions to underlying implementation processes of land allocation. Methodologically linking the described patterns and processes proved difficult, but we have identified indicators that could be added to inventories and monitoring systems to make linkage possible. Combining complementary approaches in this way may help to determine where policy space exists for more sustainable governance of land acquisitions, both geographically and with regard to processes of agrarian transitions. Our spatial analysis revealed two general patterns: (i) relatively large forestry-related acquisitions that target forested landscapes and often interfere with semi-subsistence farming systems; and (ii) smaller agriculture-related acquisitions that often target existing cropland and also interfere with semi-subsistence systems. Furthermore, our meta-analysis of land acquisition implementation processes shows that authoritarian, top-down processes dominate. Initially, the demands of powerful regional and domestic investors tend to override socio-ecological variables, local actors’ interests, and land governance mechanisms. As available land grows scarce, however, and local actors gain experience dealing with land acquisitions, it appears that land investments begin to fail or give way to more inclusive, bottom-up investment models.

A new chromanone derivative isolated from Hypericum lissophloeus (Hypericaceae) potentiates GABAA receptor currents in a subunit specific fashion.

A phytochemical investigation of the lipophilic extract of Hypericum lissophloeus (smoothbark St. John's wort, Hypericaceae) was conducted, resulting in the isolation and identification of a new chromanone derivative: 5,7-dihydroxy-2,3-dimethyl-6-(3-methyl-but-2-enyl)-chroman-4-one (1). This compound was demonstrated to act as a potent stimulator of currents elicited by GABA in recombinant α1β2γ2 GABAA receptors, with a half-maximal potentiation observed at a concentration of about 4μM and a maximal potentiation of >4000%. Significant potentiation was already evident at a concentration as low as 0.1μM. Extent of potentiation strongly depends on the type of α subunit, the type of β subunit and the presence of the γ subunit.

L'hétérogénéité des registres dans les annonces sanitaires: le cas des campagnes anti-tabac

L’objectif de cet article est d’approfondir le fonctionnement textuel des registres, vus comme des matrices d’écriture, dans un cas particulier de discours médiatique : les campagnes institutionnelles antitabac. Tout en montrant que ces campagnes s’appuient sur quatre registres (le délibératif, le didactique, l’épidictique et le pathémique), l’article analyse la distribution différenciée de ces derniers selon les genres (brochure ou affiche) dans lesquels ils s’intègrent. Par ailleurs, l’accent est mis sur l’ambiguïté interprétative de ces registres, à travers leur interaction entre le texte et l’image dans une affiche typique.

Ufer- und Moorsiedlungen. Chronologie, kulturelle Vielfalt und Siedlungsformen

Die wissenschaftliche Erforschung der Pfahlbauten des Alpenraums bietet erstaunliche Einblicke in unterschiedliche Kulturen und Siedlungsformen. Es erschließen sich soziale und ökonomische Aspekte prähistorischer Siedlungsgemeinschaften und der Austausch zwischen unterschiedlichen Bevölkerungsgruppen. Durch naturwissenschaftliche Datierungsmethoden und eingehende Analyse des Fundmaterials wissen wir heute bereits viel über die zeitliche Dimension der Siedlungen und über ihre kulturelle Vielfalt. Die ältesten Pfahlbauten befinden sich im Mittelmeerraum. Sie reichen dort bis ins 6. Jahrtausend v. Chr. zurück und wurden in den Seen Mazedoniens und Albaniens, in Mittelitalien und Katalonien entdeckt. Ihre systematische Erforschung hat erst in jüngster Zeit begonnen. Nirgends gibt es jedoch so viele Pfahlbaufundstätten wie in den Seen rund um die Alpen, wo bereits ca. 1000 Siedlungsareale bekannt sind. Hier hatten sich Siedlungsgemeinschaften über viele Generationen hinweg darauf spezialisiert, im Grenzraum zwischen Wasser und Land ihre Behausungen aufzubauen. Lange war es unter Forschern umstritten, ob es überhaupt pfahlgetragene Siedlungen in unseren Breiten gegeben habe. Inzwischen ist durch Ausgrabungen eine Vielzahl von bautechnischen Lösungen bekannt. Mit Pfahlhäusern unterschiedlicher Bauart war man vor Hochwasser sicher und konnte sogar im Flachwasser bauen; in Mooren und an den Ufern kleiner Seen genügten mehrlagige Holzfußböden, um aus dem feuchten Grund zu kommen. Der Begriff „prähistorische Pfahlbauten“, wie ihn die UNESCO in ihrer Ernennung zum Welterbe verwendet, fasst all diese Bau und Siedlungsformen an Seeufern und in Feuchtgebieten zusammen. Ihre wissenschaftliche Bedeutung und Berühmtheit verdanken sie den besonders günstigen Erhaltungsbedingungen im feuchten Milieu.

International und interdisziplinär. Archäologie und Umweltwissenschaften heute

Wissenschaftliche Projekte gelten heute als besonders erfolgversprechend, wenn sich verschiedene Disziplinen zusammenschließen, um offene Fragen aus verschiedenen Blickwinkeln zu beleuchten. Interdisziplinarität ist in der archäologischen Forschung des 21. Jahrhunderts fest verankert und insbesondere die prähistorische Archäologie erarbeitet heute zahlreiche Erkenntnisse im Verbund mit verschiedenen Naturwissenschaften. Seit 2015 erforschen je drei archäologische und paläoökologische Arbeitsgruppen eine Pfahlbauregion und ihr Hinterland mit neuen Methoden und Forschungsansätzen. Ausgangspunkt sind jeweils Kleinseen im schweizerischen Mittelland (Burgäschisee), im westlichen Allgäu (Seen und Moore um den Schleinsee und Degersee) und im Salzburger Land (Seengruppe um den Mondsee). Beteiligt sind die Universitäten Bern, Wien, Innsbruck und Basel sowie das Landesamt für Denkmalpflege im Regierungspräsidium Stuttgart mit insgesamt rund 20 Wissenschaftlerinnen und Wissenschaftlern. Es handelt sich um das erste länderübergreifende Forschungsprojekt seit Anerkennung der Pfahlbauten des Alpenraums als UNESCO Welterbe im Jahr 2011 und es erfüllt eine der Kernforderungen dieser Auszeichnung – internationale Zusammenarbeit und Austausch von Wissen und Methoden.

Aus schmelzendem Eis. Funde vom Schnidejoch.

Am Ende des Hitzesommers 2003 entdeckten Wanderer am Rande eines kleinen Eisfeldes erstmals prähistorische Objekte. Die Fundstelle liegt am Schnidejoch, einem alpinen Übergang, der das Simmental mit dem Rhônetal verbindet. Bis heute liegen von dieser außergewöhnlichen Fundstelle rund 900 Funde vom Neolithikum bis zum Mittelalter vor. Die Forschungen am Schnidejoch können auch als „Archäologie zwischen Gletschern und Gipfeln“ bezeichnet werden. Die Fundstelle befindet sich auf 2750 m Höhe und wird von der höchsten Erhebung der westlichen Berner Alpen, dem 3248 m hohen Wildhorn, überragt. Die ältesten Objekte werden in die Zeitspanne von 4800 bis 4300 v. Chr. datiert. Es handelt sich um Fragmente von Pfeilen und um eine Schale aus Ulmenholz. Weitere Leder- und Pfeilfragmente zeigen, dass der Pass auch in der zweiten Hälfte des 4. Jahrtausends v. Chr. benutzt wurde. Eine ganze Serie von Objekten stammt aus dem Zeitraum um 2800 v. Chr.: eine komplette Bogenausrüstung, bestehend aus Pfeilbogen, Bogensehne, Bogenfutteral, Pfeilschäften und Pfeilspitzen. Ebenfalls zu diesem Ensemble gehören Bekleidungsreste: Teile eines Grasumhangs, Schuhfragmente und ein Hosenbein aus Leder. Es ist wenig wahrscheinlich, dass die in den Bergen lebensnotwendige Bekleidung und die Bewaffnung einfach verloren wurden. Es ist deshalb zu vermuten, dass am Schnidejoch vor fast 5000 Jahren jemand zu Tode kam; eine Leiche wurde aber – anders als beim „Ötzi“ – nicht gefunden. Möglicherweise wurde die am Schnidejoch umgekommene Person geborgen und in einem zeitgleich errichteten Kollektivgrab im Tal bestattet.

Constitutions-Buch der gerechten und vollkommenen deutschen Loge freier und angenommener Maurer, zur gekrönten Schlange in Görlitz : Sanctionirt den 24. Junius im Jahre des Lichts 5808

Lt. der in den Johannislogen verwendeten Zeitrechnung (plus 4000) ca. 1808 erschienen

The role of workplace absence as an organizational mechanism in predicting employee alcohol and drug disorders

Background. EAP programs for airline pilots in companies with a well developed recovery management program are known to reduce pilot absenteeism following treatment. Given the costs and safety consequences to society, it is important to identify pilots who may be experiencing an AOD disorder to get them into treatment. ^ Hypotheses. This study investigated the predictive power of workplace absenteeism in identifying alcohol or drug disorders (AOD). The first hypothesis was that higher absenteeism in a 12-month period is associated with higher risk that an employee is experiencing AOD. The second hypothesis was that AOD treatment would reduce subsequent absence rates and the costs of replacing pilots on missed flights. ^ Methods. A case control design using eight years (time period) of monthly archival absence data (53,000 pay records) was conducted with a sample of (N = 76) employees having an AOD diagnosis (cases) matched 1:4 with (N = 304) non-diagnosed employees (controls) of the same profession and company (male commercial airline pilots). Cases and controls were matched on the variables age, rank and date of hire. Absence rate was defined as sick time hours used over the sum of the minimum guarantee pay hours annualized using the months the pilot worked for the year. Conditional logistic regression was used to determine if absence predicts employees experiencing an AOD disorder, starting 3 years prior to the cases receiving the AOD diagnosis. A repeated measures ANOVA, t tests and rate ratios (with 95% confidence intervals) were conducted to determine differences between cases and controls in absence usage for 3 years pre and 5 years post treatment. Mean replacement costs were calculated for sick leave usage 3 years pre and 5 years post treatment to estimate the cost of sick leave from the perspective of the company. ^ Results. Sick leave, as measured by absence rate, predicted the risk of being diagnosed with an AOD disorder (OR 1.10, 95% CI = 1.06, 1.15) during the 12 months prior to receiving the diagnosis. Mean absence rates for diagnosed employees increased over the three years before treatment, particularly in the year before treatment, whereas the controls’ did not (three years, x = 6.80 vs. 5.52; two years, x = 7.81 vs. 6.30, and one year, x = 11.00cases vs. 5.51controls. In the first year post treatment compared to the year prior to treatment, rate ratios indicated a significant (60%) post treatment reduction in absence rates (OR = 0.40, CI = 0.28, 0.57). Absence rates for cases remained lower than controls for the first three years after completion of treatment. Upon discharge from the FAA and company’s three year AOD monitoring program, case’s absence rates increased slightly during the fourth year (controls, x = 0.09, SD = 0.14, cases, x = 0.12, SD = 0.21). However, the following year, their mean absence rates were again below those of the controls (controls, x = 0.08, SD = 0.12, cases, x¯ = 0.06, SD = 0.07). Significant reductions in costs associated with replacing pilots calling in sick, were found to be 60% less, between the year of diagnosis for the cases and the first year after returning to work. A reduction in replacement costs continued over the next two years for the treated employees. ^ Conclusions. This research demonstrates the potential for workplace absences as an active organizational surveillance mechanism to assist managers and supervisors in identifying employees who may be experiencing or at risk of experiencing an alcohol/drug disorder. Currently, many workplaces use only performance problems and ignore the employee’s absence record. A referral to an EAP or alcohol/drug evaluation based on the employee’s absence/sick leave record as incorporated into company policy can provide another useful indicator that may also carry less stigma, thus reducing barriers to seeking help. This research also confirms two conclusions heretofore based only on cross-sectional studies: (1) higher absence rates are associated with employees experiencing an AOD disorder; (2) treatment is associated with lower costs for replacing absent pilots. Due to the uniqueness of the employee population studied (commercial airline pilots) and the organizational documentation of absence, the generalizability of this study to other professions and occupations should be considered limited. ^ Transition to Practice. The odds ratios for the relationship between absence rates and an AOD diagnosis are precise; the OR for year of diagnosis indicates the likelihood of being diagnosed increases 10% for every hour change in sick leave taken. In practice, however, a pilot uses approximately 20 hours of sick leave for one trip, because the replacement will have to be paid the guaranteed minimum of 20 hour. Thus, the rate based on hourly changes is precise but not practical. ^ To provide the organization with practical recommendations the yearly mean absence rates were used. A pilot flies on average, 90 hours a month, 1080 annually. Cases used almost twice the mean rate of sick time the year prior to diagnosis (T-1) compared to controls (cases, x = .11, controls, x = .06). Cases are expected to use on average 119 hours annually (total annual hours*mean annual absence rate), while controls will use 60 hours. The cases’ 60 hours could translate to 3 trips of 20 hours each. Management could use a standard of 80 hours or more of sick time claimed in a year as the threshold for unacceptable absence, a 25% increase over the controls (a cost to the company of approximately of $4000). At the 80-hour mark, the Chief Pilot would be able to call the pilot in for a routine check as to the nature of the pilot’s excessive absence. This management action would be based on a company standard, rather than a behavioral or performance issue. Using absence data in this fashion would make it an active surveillance mechanism. ^

Use of universal precautions in the workplace: A comparison of two fire /EMS services

The Health Belief Model (HBM) provided the theoretical framework for examining Universal Precautions (UP) compliance factors by Firefighter, EMTs and Paramedics (prehospital care providers). A convenient sample of prehospital care providers (n = 4000) from two cities (Houston and Washington DC), were surveyed to explore the factors related to their decision to comply with Universal Precautions. Eight hundred and sixty-five useable questionnaires were analyzed. The responders were primarily male (95.7%) eight hundred and twenty-eight and thirty-seven were female, prehospital based (100%), EMTs (60.0%) and paramedics (12.8%) who had a mean 13 years of prehospital care experience. ^ Linear regression was used to evaluate the four hypotheses. The first hypothesis evaluating perceived susceptibility and seriousness with reported UP use was statistically significant (p = < .05). Perceived susceptibility, when considered independently, did not make a significant contribution (t = −4.2852; p = 0.0000) to the stated use of Universal precautions. The hypothesis is not supported as stated. The data indicates the opposite effect. Supported is the premise that as perceived susceptibility and perceived seriousness increase the use of Universal Precautions decreases. Hypothesis two tested perceived benefits with internal and external barriers. Both perceived benefits and internal and external barriers as well as the overall regression were significant (F = 112.6, p = 0.0000). The contribution of internal and external barriers was statistically significant (t = 0.0175; p = 0.0000) and (t = 0.0128; p = 0.0000). Hypothesis three which tested modifying factors, cues to action, select demographic variables, and the main effects of the HBM with self reported UP compliance overall was significant. The variables gender, birth, education, job type, EMS certification, years of service, years of experience providing patient care, Universal Precautions training hours, type of apparatus assigned to and the number of EMS related incidents responded to in a month were found to have a significant contribution to the stated use of Universal Precautions. ^ The additive effects were tested by use of a stepwise regression that assessed the contribution of each of the significant variables. Three variables in the equation were statistically significant. Internal barriers (t = −8.5507; p = 0.0000), external barriers (t = −6.2862; p = 0.000) and job type 2 & 3. Job type two (t = −2.8464; p = 0.0045 is titled Engineer/Operator. Job type three (t = −2.5730; p = 0.0103) is titled captain. The overall regression was significant (F = 24.06; p = 0.000). The Hypothesis is supported in the certain demographic variables do influence the stated use of Universal precautions and that as internal and external barriers are decreased, there is an increase in the stated use of Universal Precautions. ^ In summary, this study demonstrated that internal and external barriers have a significant impact on the stated use of Universal Precautions. Internal barriers are those factors within the individual that require an internal change (i.e., forgetfulness, freedom, perception of the urgency of the patient's needs etc.) and external barriers are things in the environment that can be altered (i.e., equipment design, availability of equipment, ease of use). These two model variables explained 23%–30% of the variance. ^

Quality of life and functional status in a low -income, multiethnic HIV -positive population

The introduction of new medical treatments in recent years, commonly referred to as highly active antiretroviral therapy, has greatly increased the survival of patients with HIV/AIDS. As patients with HIV/AIDS continue to live longer, other important health-related outcomes, such as quality of life (QOL), should be thoroughly studied. There is also evidence that racial/ethnic minorities are disproportionately affected by HIV/AIDS, but potential health disparities among individuals already infected with HIV/AIDS have not been adequately examined in ethnically diverse populations. The purpose of this dissertation was to: (1) examine the impact of both demographic and behavioral variables on functional status and overall QOL among a population of ethnically diverse and economically disadvantaged HIV/AIDS patients; (2) examine the psychometric properties of a functional status measure—the Household and Leisure Time Activities questionnaire (HLTA); and (3) assess a proximal-distal theoretical framework for QOL using a full structural equation model in a population of patients with HIV/AIDS. Analyses were performed using data collected in the fall of 2000 from the project, Health and Work-Related Quality of Life and Health Risk Behaviors in a Multiethnic HIV-positive Population . Investigators from The University of Texas M.D. Anderson Cancer Center, The University of Texas-Houston Medical School, and The University of Texas School of Public Health conducted this project. The study site was the Thomas Street Clinic (TSC), a comprehensive HIV/AIDS care facility funded by the Harris County Hospital District (HCHD). TSC provides HIV/AIDS care to a diverse population of approximately 4000 medically indigent residents of Harris County. A systematic, consecutive sampling procedure yielded a sample size of 348 patients. Findings suggested that overall QOL, work-role functioning, household functioning, and leisure time functioning were impaired in this patient population. Results from the psychometric evaluation indicated that the HLTA was a reliable and valid measure of household and leisure time functioning status in a low-income multiethnic HIV-positive population. Finally, structural equation modeling of the proximal-distal QOL model suggested that this model was not a viable representation of the relationship between the study variables in this patient population. ^

Foraminifera and microfossil occurence in Late Jurassic sediments of the North and South Atlantic

Biostratigraphical, taxonomical, and palaeocological results were obtained from Oxfordian to Tithonian foraminifers of the Northern and Southern Atlantic Ocean boreholes of the DSDP Legs 1, 11, 36, 41, 44, 50, and 79. An oversight on the cored Jurassic sections of the DSDP Legs 79 and the corresponding foraminiferal descriptions are given. The reddish brown, clayey and carbonaceous Cat Gap Formation (Oxfordian to Tithonian) of the Northern Atlantic Ocean, rich in radiolarians, yields less or more uniform, in most cases allochthonous foraminiferal faunas of Central European shelf character. No Callovian and Upper Tithonian foraminiferaI zones can be established. The zone of Pseudomarssonella durnortieri covers the Oxfordian/Kimmeridgian, the zone of Neobulimina atlantica the Kimmeridgian/Lower Tithonian interval. Characteristic foraminiferal faunas are missing since the Upper Tithonian to Valanginian for reason of a widely distributed regression which caused hiatuses observed all over the Northern Atlantic Ocean and in parts of Europe. The Upper Jurassic cannot be subdivided into single stages by foraminiferal biostratigraphy alone. The fovaminiferal zones established by Moullad (1984) covering a Callovian-Tithonian interval may be of some local importance in the Tethyan realm: It has too long-ranging foraminiferal species to be used as index marker in the word-wide DSDP boreholes. Some taxonomical confusion is caused because in former publications some foraminiferal species have got different names both in the Jurassic and Cretaceous. The foraminiferal biostratigraphy of drilled sections from DSDP boreholes is restricted by the drilling technique and for palaeo-oceanographical, biological, and geological reasons. Foraminiferal faunas from the DSDP originally described as ,,bathyal, or ,,abyssal,, have to be derived from shallower water. This contrasts the palaeo-water depths of 3000-4000 m which result from sedimentological and palaeo-geographical investigations.