Hybrid Water Demand Forecasting Model Associating Artificial Neural Network with Fourier Series

This paper addressed the problem of water-demand forecasting for real-time operation of water supply systems. The present study was conducted to identify the best fit model using hourly consumption data from the water supply system of Araraquara, Sa approximate to o Paulo, Brazil. Artificial neural networks (ANNs) were used in view of their enhanced capability to match or even improve on the regression model forecasts. The ANNs used were the multilayer perceptron with the back-propagation algorithm (MLP-BP), the dynamic neural network (DAN2), and two hybrid ANNs. The hybrid models used the error produced by the Fourier series forecasting as input to the MLP-BP and DAN2, called ANN-H and DAN2-H, respectively. The tested inputs for the neural network were selected literature and correlation analysis. The results from the hybrid models were promising, DAN2 performing better than the tested MLP-BP models. DAN2-H, identified as the best model, produced a mean absolute error (MAE) of 3.3 L/s and 2.8 L/s for training and test set, respectively, for the prediction of the next hour, which represented about 12% of the average consumption. The best forecasting model for the next 24 hours was again DAN2-H, which outperformed other compared models, and produced a MAE of 3.1 L/s and 3.0 L/s for training and test set respectively, which represented about 12% of average consumption. DOI: 10.1061/(ASCE)WR.1943-5452.0000177. (C) 2012 American Society of Civil Engineers.

Vortices in the extended Skyrme-Faddeev model

We construct analytical and numerical vortex solutions for an extended Skyrme-Faddeev model in a (3 + 1) dimensional Minkowski space-time. The extension is obtained by adding to the Lagrangian a quartic term, which is the square of the kinetic term, and a potential which breaks the SO(3) symmetry down to SO(2). The construction makes use of an ansatz, invariant under the joint action of the internal SO(2) and three commuting U(1) subgroups of the Poincare group, and which reduces the equations of motion to an ordinary differential equation for a profile function depending on the distance to the x(3) axis. The vortices have finite energy per unit length, and have waves propagating along them with the speed of light. The analytical vortices are obtained for a special choice of potentials, and the numerical ones are constructed using the successive over relaxation method for more general potentials. The spectrum of solutions is analyzed in detail, especially its dependence upon special combinations of coupling constants.

LHC discovery potential for supersymmetry with root s=7 TeV and 5-30 fb(-1)

We extend our earlier results delineating the supersymmetry reach of the CERN Large Hadron Collider operating at a center-of-mass energy root s = 7 TeV to integrated luminosities in the range 5-30 fb(-1). Our results are presented within the paradigm minimal supergravity model or constrained minimal supersymmetric standard model. Using a six-dimensional grid of cuts for the optimization of signal to background ratio-including missing E-T-we find for m((g) over tilde) similar to m((q) over tilde) an LHC 5 sigma supersymmetry discovery reach of m((g) over tilde) similar to 1:3, 1.4, 1.5, and 1.6 TeV for 5, 10, 20, and 30 fb(-1), respectively. For m((q) over tilde) >> m((g) over tilde), the corresponding reach is instead m((g) over tilde) similar to 0: 8, 0.9, 1.0, and 1.05 TeV, for the same integrated luminosities.

An integrated approach to remanufacturing: model of a remanufacturing system

Remanufacturing is the process of rebuilding used products that ensures that the quality of remanufactured products is equivalent to that of new ones. Although the theme is gaining ground, it is still little explored due to lack of knowledge, the difficulty of visualizing it systemically, and implementing it effectively. Few models treat remanufacturing as a system. Most of the studies still treated remanufacturing as an isolated process, preventing it from being seen in an integrated manner. Therefore, the aim of this work is to organize the knowledge about remanufacturing, offering a vision of remanufacturing system and contributing to an integrated view about the theme. The methodology employed was a literature review, adopting the General Theory of Systems to characterize the remanufacturing system. This work consolidates and organizes the elements of this system, enabling a better understanding of remanufacturing and assisting companies in adopting the concept.

HCHO, H 2 O 2 und CH 3 OOH in der Troposphäre

In dieser Arbeit wurden im Rahmen der UTOPIHAN- und HOHPEX04-Projekte Peroxid- und Formaldehydmessungen in der Troposphäre durchgeführt und wissenschaftlich interpretiert. Die Messungen während UTOPIHAN fanden dabei an Bord eines für Forschungszwecke umgerüsteten Flugzeuges (Learjet 35A) im Wesentlichen in der freien, insbesondere in der oberen Troposphäre über Europa statt. Die Messungen während HOHPEX04 waren hingegen als Bodenmessungen an der sich abwechselnd in der bodennahen Grenzschicht und in von dieser Schicht entkoppelten Luftmassen liegenden Bergstation Hohenpeißenberg (bayerisches Voralpenland) konzipiert. Um eine quantitative Auswertbarkeit der Messungen sicherzustellen, wurden die verwendeten, auf chemischer Derivatisierung und fluorimetrischer Detektion basierenden Messgeräte AL 2001CA (Peroxide) und AL 4021 (Formaldehyd) (AEROLASER) genau charakterisiert. Dabei wurde speziell die bekannte Ozoninterferenz beider Geräte in einer großen Zahl von Laborexperimenten mit unterschiedlichen Randbedingungen bezüglich Wasserdampf- und Kohlenwasserstoffgehalt der Luft untersucht. Für beide Verbindungen wurden Höhen- sowie Breitenprofile erstellt und mit Ergebnissen eines 3D-Chemie-Transport-Modells (CTM) sowie früherer Studien verglichen. In einem weiteren Kapitel werden Ergebnisse einer quantitativen Studie zum Einfluss hochreichender Konvektion auf das HCHO-Budget in der mittleren und oberen Troposphäre präsentiert. Diese Studie kommt zu dem Schluss, dass der rasche Aufwärtstransport von Vorläufergasen von HCHO und HOx wie Methanol, Aceton und sogar gut löslicher Spurengase wie CH3OOH beziehungsweise H2O2 aus der Grenzschicht einen signifikanten, auf Grund der längeren Lebensdauer von NOx über mehrere Tage andauernden und damit großräumigen Einfluss auf die Budgets von HCHO, HOx und auch O3 in der oberen Troposphäre haben kann. Die Befunde der Studie legen desweiteren nahe, dass fehlerhafte Modellvorhersagen für die NO-Mischungsverhältnisse in der Tropopausenregion, die zum Beispiel mit Mängeln des Modells bezüglich der Höhe der Konvektion und des Stratosphären-Troposphären-Austauschs zu tun haben, hauptverantwortlich sind für gefundene Differenzen zwischen Messdaten und dem verwendeten 3D-Chemie-Transport-Modell. Um die Signifikanz der Aussagen zu erhöhen, wurde eine Sensitivitätsstudie durchgeführt, in der die Konzentration einiger chemischer Verbindungen sowie die Photolyseraten variiert wurden. Eine weitere Studie zum Einfluss verschiedener Parameter auf das CH3OOH/H2O2-Verhältnis kommt zu dem Schluss, dass dieses Verhältnis keinen idealen Indikator für Wolkenprozessierung von Luftmassen darstellt, während eine signifikant positive Abweichung vom H2O2/H2O-Verhältnis in der oberen Troposphäre ein guter Indikator für rasch aufwärts transportierte Luftmassen sein kann. Im Rahmen dieser Studie werden auch Höhen- und Breitenprofile des CH3OOH/H2O2-Verhältnisses diskutiert. In einer letzten Untersuchung zu HCHO-Messungen am Observatorium Hohenpeißenberg im Sommer 2004 werden für die in zwei Windrichtungssektoren eingeteilten Daten Korrelationen anderer Spurengase wie O3, PAN, CO, NOy und Isopren mit HCHO interpretiert. In diesem Zusammenhang wird auch versucht, den beobachteten Tagesgang von HCHO zu erklären.

Periodontitis: a future risk of acute coronary syndrome? A follow-up study over 3 years

BACKGROUND: Periodontitis has been associated with cardiovascular disease. We assess if the recurrence of acute coronary syndrome (ACS) could be predicted by preceding medical and periodontal conditions. METHODS: A total of 165 consecutive subjects with ACS and 159 medically healthy, matched control subjects were examined and followed for 3 years. Periodontitis was defined by alveolar bone loss. Subgingival microbial samples were studied by the checkerboard DNA-DNA hybridization method. RESULTS: The recurrence of ACS was found in 66 of 165 (40.0%) subjects, and a first ACS event was found in seven of 159 (4.4%) subjects among baseline control subjects. Subjects who later had a second ACS event were older (P <0.001). Significantly higher serum levels of high-density lipoprotein (P <0.05), creatinine (P <0.01), and white blood cell (WBC) counts (P <0.001) were found in subjects with future ACS. Periodontitis was associated with a first event of ACS (crude odds ratio [OR]: 10.3:1; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 6.1 to 17.4; P <0.001) and the recurrence of ACS (crude OR: 3.6:1; 95% CI: 2.0 to 6.6; P <0.001). General linear modeling multivariate analysis, controlling for age and the prediction of a future ACS event, identified that WBC counts (F = 20.6; P <0.001), periodontitis (F = 17.6; P <0.001), and serum creatinine counts (F = 4.5; P <0.05) were explanatory of a future ACS event. CONCLUSIONS: The results of this study indicate that recurrent ACS events are predicted by serum WBC counts, serum creatinine levels, and a diagnosis of periodontitis. Significantly higher counts of putative pathogens are found in subjects with ACS, but these counts do not predict future ACS events.

Global Search for Minimum Energy (H2O)n Clusters, n = 3−5

The Gaussian-3 (G3) model chemistry method has been used to calculate the relative ΔG° values for all possible conformers of neutral clusters of water, (H2O)n, where n = 3−5. A complete 12-fold conformational search around each hydrogen bond produced 144, 1728, and 20 736 initial starting structures of the water trimer, tetramer, and pentamer. These structures were optimized with PM3, followed by HF/6-31G* optimization, and then with the G3 model chemistry. Only two trimers are present on the G3 potential energy hypersurface. We identified 5 tetramers and 10 pentamers on the potential energy and free-energy hypersurfaces at 298 K. None of these 17 structures were linear; all linear starting models folded into cyclic or three-dimensional structures. The cyclic pentamer is the most stable isomer at 298 K. On the basis of this and previous studies, we expect the cyclic tetramers and pentamers to be the most significant cyclic water clusters in the atmosphere.

The effect of 3 versus 6 years of zoledronic acid treatment of osteoporosis: a randomized extension to the HORIZON-Pivotal Fracture Trial (PFT)

Zoledronic acid 5 mg (ZOL) annually for 3 years reduces fracture risk in postmenopausal women with osteoporosis. To investigate long-term effects of ZOL on bone mineral density (BMD) and fracture risk, the Health Outcomes and Reduced Incidence with Zoledronic acid Once Yearly-Pivotal Fracture Trial (HORIZON-PFT) was extended to 6 years. In this international, multicenter, double-blind, placebo-controlled extension trial, 1233 postmenopausal women who received ZOL for 3 years in the core study were randomized to 3 additional years of ZOL (Z6, n = 616) or placebo (Z3P3, n = 617). The primary endpoint was femoral neck (FN) BMD percentage change from year 3 to 6 in the intent-to-treat (ITT) population. Secondary endpoints included other BMD sites, fractures, biochemical bone turnover markers, and safety. In years 3 to 6, FN-BMD remained constant in Z6 and dropped slightly in Z3P3 (between-treatment difference = 1.04%; 95% confidence interval 0.4 to 1.7; p = 0.0009) but remained above pretreatment levels. Other BMD sites showed similar differences. Biochemical markers remained constant in Z6 but rose slightly in Z3P3, remaining well below pretreatment levels in both. New morphometric vertebral fractures were lower in the Z6 (n = 14) versus Z3P3 (n = 30) group (odds ratio = 0.51; p = 0.035), whereas other fractures were not different. Significantly more Z6 patients had a transient increase in serum creatinine >0.5 mg/dL (0.65% versus 2.94% in Z3P3). Nonsignificant increases in Z6 of atrial fibrillation serious adverse events (2.0% versus 1.1% in Z3P3; p = 0.26) and stroke (3.1% versus 1.5% in Z3P3; p = 0.06) were seen. Postdose symptoms were similar in both groups. Reports of hypertension were significantly lower in Z6 versus Z3P3 (7.8% versus 15.1%, p < 0.001). Small differences in bone density and markers in those who continued versus those who stopped treatment suggest residual effects, and therefore, after 3 years of annual ZOL, many patients may discontinue therapy up to 3 years. However, vertebral fracture reductions suggest that those at high fracture risk, particularly vertebral fracture, may benefit by continued treatment.

3,4-Dehydrodebrisoquine, a novel debrisoquine metabolite formed from 4-hydroxydebrisoquine that affects the CYP2D6 metabolic ratio

Considerable unexplained intersubject variability in the debrisoquine metabolic ratio (urinary debrisoquine/4-hydroxydebrisoquine) exists within individual CYP2D6 genotypes. We speculated that debrisoquine was converted to as yet undisclosed metabolites. Thirteen healthy young volunteers, nine CYP2D6*1 homozygotes [extensive metabolizers (EMs)] and four CYP2D6*4 homozygotes [poor metabolizers (PMs)] took 12.8 mg of debrisoquine hemisulfate by mouth and collected 0- to 8- and 8- to 24-h urines, which were analyzed by gas chromatography-mass spectrometry (GCMS) before and after treatment with beta-glucuronidase. Authentic 3,4-dehydrodebrisoquine was synthesized and characterized by GCMS, liquid chromatography-tandem mass spectrometry, and (1)H NMR. 3,4-Dehydrodebrisoquine is a novel metabolite of debrisoquine excreted variably in 0- to 24-h urine, both in EMs (3.1-27.6% of dose) and PMs (0-2.1% of dose). This metabolite is produced from 4-hydroxydebrisoquine in vitro by human and rat liver microsomes. A previously unstudied CYP2D6*1 homozygote was administered 10.2 mg of 4-hydroxydebrisoquine orally and also excreted 3,4-dehydrodebrisoquine. EMs excreted 6-hydroxydebrisoquine (0-4.8%) and 8-hydroxydebrisoquine (0-1.3%), but these phenolic metabolites were not detected in PM urine. Debrisoquine and 4-hydroxydebrisoquine glucuronides were excreted in a highly genotype-dependent manner. A microsomal activity that probably does not involve cytochrome P450 participates in the further metabolism of 4-hydroxydebrisoquine, which we speculate may also lead to the formation of 1- and 3-hydroxydebrisoquine and their ring-opened products. In conclusion, this study suggests that the traditional metabolic ratio is not a true measure of the debrisoquine 4-hydroxylation capacity of an individual and thus may, in part, explain the wide intragenotype variation in metabolic ratio.

Ventricular-arterial coupling in a rat model of reduced arterial compliance provoked by hypervitaminosis D and nicotine

The vitamin D(3) and nicotine (VDN) model is one of isolated systolic hypertension (ISH) in which arterial calcification raises arterial stiffness and vascular impedance. The effects of VDN treatment on arterial and cardiac hemodynamics have been investigated; however, a complete analysis of ventricular-arterial interaction is lacking. Wistar rats were treated with VDN (VDN group, n = 9), and a control group (n = 10) was included without the VDN. At week 8, invasive indexes of cardiac function were obtained using a conductance catheter. Simultaneously, aortic pressure and flow were measured to derive vascular impedance and characterize ventricular-vascular interaction. VDN caused significant increases in systolic (138 +/- 6 vs. 116 +/- 13 mmHg, P < 0.01) and pulse (42 +/- 10 vs. 26 +/- 4 mmHg, P < 0.01) pressures with respect to control. Total arterial compliance decreased (0.12 +/- 0.08 vs. 0.21 +/- 0.04 ml/mmHg in control, P < 0.05), and pulse wave velocity increased significantly (8.8 +/- 2.5 vs. 5.1 +/- 2.0 m/s in control, P < 0.05). The arterial elastance and end-systolic elastance rose significantly in the VDN group (P < 0.05). Wave reflection was augmented in the VDN group, as reflected by the increase in the wave reflection coefficient (0.63 +/- 0.06 vs. 0.52 +/- 0.05 in control, P < 0.05) and the amplitude of the reflected pressure wave (13.3 +/- 3.1 vs. 8.4 +/- 1.0 mmHg in control, P < 0.05). We studied ventricular-arterial coupling in a VDN-induced rat model of reduced arterial compliance. The VDN treatment led to development of ISH and provoked alterations in cardiac function, arterial impedance, arterial function, and ventricular-arterial interaction, which in many aspects are similar to effects of an aged and stiffened arterial tree.

Fixed block configuration GDDs with block size 6 and (3, r)-regular graphs

Chapter 1 is used to introduce the basic tools and mechanics used within this thesis. Most of the definitions used in the thesis will be defined, and we provide a basic survey of topics in graph theory and design theory pertinent to the topics studied in this thesis. In Chapter 2, we are concerned with the study of fixed block configuration group divisible designs, GDD(n; m; k; λ1; λ2). We study those GDDs in which each block has configuration (s; t), that is, GDDs in which each block has exactly s points from one of the two groups and t points from the other. Chapter 2 begins with an overview of previous results and constructions for small group size and block sizes 3, 4 and 5. Chapter 2 is largely devoted to presenting constructions and results about GDDs with two groups and block size 6. We show the necessary conditions are sufficient for the existence of GDD(n, 2, 6; λ1, λ2) with fixed block configuration (3; 3). For configuration (1; 5), we give minimal or nearminimal index constructions for all group sizes n ≥ 5 except n = 10, 15, 160, or 190. For configuration (2, 4), we provide constructions for several families ofGDD(n, 2, 6; λ1, λ2)s. Chapter 3 addresses characterizing (3, r)-regular graphs. We begin with providing previous results on the well studied class of (2, r)-regular graphs and some results on the structure of large (t; r)-regular graphs. In Chapter 3, we completely characterize all (3, 1)-regular and (3, 2)-regular graphs, as well has sharpen existing bounds on the order of large (3, r)- regular graphs of a certain form for r ≥ 3. Finally, the appendix gives computational data resulting from Sage and C programs used to generate (3, 3)-regular graphs on less than 10 vertices.

Elevated level of endothelin-1 in cerebrospinal fluid and lack of nitric oxide in basilar arterial plasma associated with cerebral vasospasm after subarachnoid haemorrhage in rabbits

BACKGROUND: The role of endothelin-1 (ET-1) and nitric oxide (NO) as two important mediators in the development of cerebral vasospasm (CVS) after subarachnoid haemorrhage (SAH) is controversial. The objective of this study was to determine whether local levels of ET-1 and NO in cerebral arterial plasma and/or in cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) are associated with the occurrence of CVS after SAH. METHODS: CVS was induced using the one-haemorrhage rabbit model and confirmed by digital subtraction angiography of the rabbits' basilar artery on day 5. Prior to sacrifice, local CSF and basilar arterial plasma samples were obtained by a transclival approach to the basilar artery. Systemic arterial plasma samples were obtained. ET-1 levels were determined by immunometric technique (pg/ml +/- SEM) and total nitrate/nitrite level spectrophotometrically (micromol/l +/- SEM). FINDINGS: Angiographic CVS was documented after SAH induction (n = 12, P < 0.05). The ET-1 level in CSF was significantly elevated by 27.3% to 0.84 +/- 0.08 pg/ml in SAH animals (n = 7) in comparison to controls (0.66 +/- 0.04 pg/ml, n = 7, P < 0.05). There was no significant difference in ET-1 levels in systemic and basilar arterial plasma samples of SAH animals compared to controls. A significant lack of local NO metabolites was documented in basilar arterial plasma after SAH (36.8 +/- 3.1 micromol/l, n = 6) compared to controls (61.8 +/- 6.2 micromol/l, n = 6, P < 0.01). CONCLUSION: This study demonstrates that an elevated ET-1 level in CSF and local lack of NO in the basilar arterial plasma samples are associated with CVS after experimental SAH.

Call for a reference model of chronic hind limb ischemia to investigate therapeutic angiogenesis

A large number of studies utilize animal models to investigate therapeutic angiogenesis. However, the lack of a standardized experimental model leaves the comparison of different studies problematic. To establish a reference model of prolonged moderate tissue ischemia, we created unilateral hind limb ischemia in athymic rnu-rats by surgical excision of the femoral vessels. Blood flow of the limb was monitored for 60 days by laser Doppler imaging. Following a short postoperative period of substantially depressed perfusion, the animals showed a status of moderate hind limb ischemia from day 14 onwards. Thereafter, the perfusion remained at a constant level (55.5% of normal value) until the end of the observation period. Histopathological assessment of the ischemic musculature on postoperative days 28 and 60 showed essentially no inflammatory cell infiltrate or fibrosis. However, the mitochondrial activity and capillary-to-fiber ratio of the muscular tissue was reduced to 52.7% of normal, presenting with a significant weakness of the ischemic limb evidenced by a progressive decline in performance. Intramuscular injection of culture-expanded human endothelial progenitor cells (EPC) resulted in a significant increase in blood flow (82.0+/-3.5% of normal), capillary density (1.60+/-0.08/muscle fiber) and smooth muscle covered arterioles (8.0+/-0.6/high power field) in the ischemic hind limb as compared to controls (55.0+/-3.1%; 0.99+/-0.03; 5.0+/-0.2). In conclusion, chronic, moderate hind limb ischemia with consistently reduced perfusion levels persisting over a prolonged period can be established reliably in rnu athymic nude rats and is responsive to pro-angiogenic treatments such as EPC transplantation. This study provides a detailed protocol of a highly reproducible reference model to test novel therapeutic options for limb ischemia.

A Simple Accounting-based Valuation Model for the Debt Tax Shield

This paper describes a simple way to integrate the debt tax shield into an accounting-based valuation model. The market value of equity is determined by forecasting residual operating income, which is calculated by charging operating income for the operating assets at a required return that accounts for the tax benefit that comes from borrowing to raise cash for the operations. The model assumes that the firm maintains a deterministic financial leverage ratio, which tends to converge quickly to typical steady-state levels over time. From a practical point of view, this characteristic is of particular help, because it allows a continuing value calculation at the end of a short forecast period.

True four-dimensional analysis of thoracic aortic displacement and distension using model-based segmentation of computed tomography angiography.

Previous analyses of aortic displacement and distension using computed tomography angiography (CTA) were performed on double-oblique multi-planar reformations and did not consider through-plane motion. The aim of this study was to overcome this limitation by using a novel computational approach for the assessment of thoracic aortic displacement and distension in their true four-dimensional extent. Vessel segmentation with landmark tracking was executed on CTA of 24 patients without evidence of aortic disease. Distension magnitudes and maximum displacement vectors (MDV) including their direction were analyzed at 5 aortic locations: left coronary artery (COR), mid-ascending aorta (ASC), brachiocephalic trunk (BCT), left subclavian artery (LSA), descending aorta (DES). Distension was highest for COR (2.3 ± 1.2 mm) and BCT (1.7 ± 1.1 mm) compared with ASC, LSA, and DES (p < 0.005). MDV decreased from COR to LSA (p < 0.005) and was highest for COR (6.2 ± 2.0 mm) and ASC (3.8 ± 1.9 mm). Displacement was directed towards left and anterior at COR and ASC. Craniocaudal displacement at COR and ASC was 1.3 ± 0.8 and 0.3 ± 0.3 mm. At BCT, LSA, and DES no predominant displacement direction was observable. Vessel displacement and wall distension are highest in the ascending aorta, and ascending aortic displacement is primarily directed towards left and anterior. Craniocaudal displacement remains low even close to the left cardiac ventricle.