876 resultados para 2447: modelling and forecasting


Relevância:

100.00% 100.00%

Publicador:

Resumo:

Abstract: Context aware applications, which can adapt their behaviors to changing environments, are attracting more and more attention. To simplify the complexity of developing applications, context aware middleware, which introduces context awareness into the traditional middleware, is highlighted to provide a homogeneous interface involving generic context management solutions. This paper provides a survey of state-of-the-art context aware middleware architectures proposed during the period from 2009 through 2015. First, a preliminary background, such as the principles of context, context awareness, context modelling, and context reasoning, is provided for a comprehensive understanding of context aware middleware. On this basis, an overview of eleven carefully selected middleware architectures is presented and their main features explained. Then, thorough comparisons and analysis of the presented middleware architectures are performed based on technical parameters including architectural style, context abstraction, context reasoning, scalability, fault tolerance, interoperability, service discovery, storage, security & privacy, context awareness level, and cloud-based big data analytics. The analysis shows that there is actually no context aware middleware architecture that complies with all requirements. Finally, challenges are pointed out as open issues for future work.

Relevância:

100.00% 100.00%

Publicador:

Resumo:

Today, the requirement of professional skills to university students is constantly increasing in our society. In our opinion, the content offered in official degrees need to be nourished with different variables, enriching their global professional knowledge in a parallel way; that is why, in recent years, there is a great multiplicity of complementary courses at university. One of the most socially demanded technical requirements within the architectural, design or engineering field is the management of 3D drawing software, becoming an indispensable reality in these sectors. Thus, this specific training becomes essential over two-dimension traditional design, because the inclusion of great possibilities of spatial development that go beyond conventional orthographic projections (plans, sections or elevations), allowing modelling and rotation of the selected items from multiple angles and perspectives. Therefore, this paper analyzes the teaching methodology of a complementary course for those technicians in the construction industry interested in computer-aided design, using modelling (SketchupMake) and rendering programs (Kerkythea). The course is developed from the technician point of view, by learning computer management and its application to professional development from a more general to a more specific view through practical examples. The proposed methodology is based on the development of real examples in different professional environments such as rehabilitation, new constructions, opening projects or architectural design. This multidisciplinary contribution improves criticism of students in different areas, encouraging new learning strategies and the independent development of three-dimensional solutions. Thus, the practical implementation of new situations, even suggested by the students themselves, ensures active participation, saving time during the design process and the increase of effectiveness when generating elements which may be represented, moved or virtually tested. In conclusion, this teaching-learning methodology improves the skills and competencies of students to face the growing professional demands of society. After finishing the course, technicians not only improved their expertise in the field of drawing but they also enhanced their capacity for spatial vision; both essential qualities in these sectors that can be applied to their professional development with great success.

Relevância:

100.00% 100.00%

Publicador:

Resumo:

Proper management of supply chains is fundamental in the overall system performance of forestbased activities. Usually, efficient management techniques rely on a decision support software, which needs to be able to generate fast and effective outputs from the set of possibilities. In order to do this, it is necessary to provide accurate models representative of the dynamic interactions of systems. Due to forest-based supply chains’ nature, event-based models are more suited to describe their behaviours. This work proposes the modelling and simulation of a forestbased supply chain, in particular the biomass supply chain, through the SimPy framework. This Python based tool allows the modelling of discrete-event systems using operations such as events, processes and resources. The developed model was used to access the impact of changes in the daily working plan in three situations. First, as a control case, the deterministic behaviour was simulated. As a second approach, a machine delay was introduced and its implications in the plan accomplishment were analysed. Finally, to better address real operating conditions, stochastic behaviours of processing and driving times were simulated. The obtained results validate the SimPy simulation environment as a framework for modelling supply chains in general and for the biomass problem in particular.

Relevância:

100.00% 100.00%

Publicador:

Resumo:

The birth, death and catastrophe process is an extension of the birth-death process that incorporates the possibility of reductions in population of arbitrary size. We will consider a general form of this model in which the transition rates are allowed to depend on the current population size in an arbitrary manner. The linear case, where the transition rates are proportional to current population size, has been studied extensively. In particular, extinction probabilities, the expected time to extinction, and the distribution of the population size conditional on nonextinction (the quasi-stationary distribution) have all been evaluated explicitly. However, whilst these characteristics are of interest in the modelling and management of populations, processes with linear rate coefficients represent only a very limited class of models. We address this limitation by allowing for a wider range of catastrophic events. Despite this generalisation, explicit expressions can still be found for the expected extinction times.

Relevância:

100.00% 100.00%

Publicador:

Resumo:

Patellamide D (patH(4)) is a cyclic octapeptide isolated from the ascidian Lissoclinum patella. The peptide possesses a 24-azacrown-8 macrocyclic structure containing two oxazoline and two thiazole rings, each separated by an amino acid. The present spectrophotometric, electron paramagnetic resonance (EPR) and mass spectral studies show that patellamide D reacts with CuCl, and triethylamine in acetonitrile to form mononuclear and binuclear copper(II) complexes containing chloride. Molecular modelling and EPR studies suggest that the chloride anion bridges the copper(II) ions in the binuclear complex [Cu-2(patH(2))(mu-Cl)](+). These results contrast with a previous study employing both base and methanol, the latter substituting for chloride in the copper(II) complexes en route to the stable mu-carbonato binuclear copper(II) complex [Cu-2 (patH(2))(mu-CO3)]. Solvent clearly plays an important role in both stabilising these metal ion complexes and influencing their chemical reactivities. (C) 2004 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Relevância:

100.00% 100.00%

Publicador:

Resumo:

This paper examines the economic significance of return predictability in Australian equities. In light of considerable model uncertainty, formal model-selection criteria are used to choose a specification for the predictive model. A portfolio-switching strategy is implemented according to model predictions. Relative to a buy-and-hold market investment, the returns to the portfolio-switching strategy are impressive under several model-selection criteria, even after accounting for transaction costs. However, as these findings are not robust across other model-selection criteria examined, it is difficult to conclude that the degree of return predictability is economically significant.

Relevância:

100.00% 100.00%

Publicador:

Resumo:

Modelling and optimization of the power draw of large SAG/AG mills is important due to the large power draw which modern mills require (5-10 MW). The cost of grinding is the single biggest cost within the entire process of mineral extraction. Traditionally, modelling of the mill power draw has been done using empirical models. Although these models are reliable, they cannot model mills and operating conditions which are not within the model database boundaries. Also, due to its static nature, the impact of the changing conditions within the mill on the power draw cannot be determined using such models. Despite advances in computing power, discrete element method (DEM) modelling of large mills with many thousands of particles could be a time consuming task. The speed of computation is determined principally by two parameters: number of particles involved and material properties. The computational time step is determined by the size of the smallest particle present in the model and material properties (stiffness). In the case of small particles, the computational time step will be short, whilst in the case of large particles; the computation time step will be larger. Hence, from the point of view of time required for modelling (which usually corresponds to time required for 3-4 mill revolutions), it will be advantageous that the smallest particles in the model are not unnecessarily too small. The objective of this work is to compare the net power draw of the mill whose charge is characterised by different size distributions, while preserving the constant mass of the charge and mill speed. (C) 2004 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Relevância:

100.00% 100.00%

Publicador:

Resumo:

The measurement of lifetime prevalence of depression in cross-sectional surveys is biased by recall problems. We estimated it indirectly for two countries using modelling, and quantified the underestimation in the empirical estimate for one. A microsimulation model was used to generate population-based epidemiological measures of depression. We fitted the model to 1-and 12-month prevalence data from the Netherlands Mental Health Survey and Incidence Study (NEMESIS) and the Australian Adult Mental Health and Wellbeing Survey. The lowest proportion of cases ever having an episode in their life is 30% of men and 40% of women, for both countries. This corresponds to a lifetime prevalence of 20 and 30%, respectively, in a cross-sectional setting (aged 15-65). The NEMESIS data were 38% lower than these estimates. We conclude that modelling enabled us to estimate lifetime prevalence of depression indirectly. This method is useful in the absence of direct measurement, but also showed that direct estimates are underestimated by recall bias and by the cross-sectional setting.

Relevância:

100.00% 100.00%

Publicador:

Resumo:

Elevated ocean temperatures can cause coral bleaching, the loss of colour from reef-building corals because of a breakdown of the symbiosis with the dinoflagellate Symbiodinium. Recent studies have warned that global climate change could increase the frequency of coral bleaching and threaten the long-term viability of coral reefs. These assertions are based on projecting the coarse output from atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (GCMs) to the local conditions around representative coral reefs. Here, we conduct the first comprehensive global assessment of coral bleaching under climate change by adapting the NOAA Coral Reef Watch bleaching prediction method to the output of a low- and high-climate sensitivity GCM. First, we develop and test algorithms for predicting mass coral bleaching with GCM-resolution sea surface temperatures for thousands of coral reefs, using a global coral reef map and 1985-2002 bleaching prediction data. We then use the algorithms to determine the frequency of coral bleaching and required thermal adaptation by corals and their endosymbionts under two different emissions scenarios. The results indicate that bleaching could become an annual or biannual event for the vast majority of the world's coral reefs in the next 30-50 years without an increase in thermal tolerance of 0.2-1.0 degrees C per decade. The geographic variability in required thermal adaptation found in each model and emissions scenario suggests that coral reefs in some regions, like Micronesia and western Polynesia, may be particularly vulnerable to climate change. Advances in modelling and monitoring will refine the forecast for individual reefs, but this assessment concludes that the global prognosis is unlikely to change without an accelerated effort to stabilize atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations.

Relevância:

100.00% 100.00%

Publicador:

Resumo:

This paper presents a review of modelling and control of biological nutrient removal (BNR)-activated sludge processes for wastewater treatment using distributed parameter models described by partial differential equations (PDE). Numerical methods for solution to the BNR-activated sludge process dynamics are reviewed and these include method of lines, global orthogonal collocation and orthogonal collocation on finite elements. Fundamental techniques and conceptual advances of the distributed parameter approach to the dynamics and control of activated sludge processes are briefly described. A critical analysis on the advantages of the distributed parameter approach over the conventional modelling strategy in this paper shows that the activated sludge process is more adequately described by the former and the method is recommended for application to the wastewater industry (c) 2006 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Relevância:

100.00% 100.00%

Publicador:

Resumo:

This study explores the theoretical and empirical distinction between developmental leadership and supportive leadership, which are currently encompassed in a single sub dimension of transformational leadership, individualized consideration. Items were selected to assess these constructs, and hypotheses regarding the differential effects of developmental and supportive leadership were proposed. Confirmatory factor analyses provided support for the proposed distinction between developmental and supportive leadership, although these leadership factors were very strongly associated. Structural equation modelling and multi-level modelling results indicated that both developmental leadership and supportive leadership displayed unique relationships with theoretically selected outcome measures. Developmental leadership displayed significantly stronger relationships with job satisfaction, career certainty, affective commitment to the organization and role breadth self-efficacy than did supportive leadership. Results provide initial evidence in support of the discriminant validity of these two types of leadership. Discussion focuses on the need to further examine the construct of developmental leadership.

Relevância:

100.00% 100.00%

Publicador:

Resumo:

The loss and fragmentation of forest habitats by human land use are recognised as important factors influencing the decline of forest-dependent fauna. Mammal species that are dependent upon forest habitats are particularly sensitive to habitat loss and fragmentation because they have highly specific habitat requirements, and in many cases have limited ability to move through and utilise the land use matrix. We addressed this problem using a case study of the koala (Phascolarctos cinereus) surveyed in a fragmented rural-urban landscape in southeast Queensland, Australia. We applied a logistic modelling and hierarchical partitioning analysis to determine the importance of forest area and its configuration relative to site (local) and patch-level habitat variables. After taking into account spatial auto-correlation and the year of survey, we found koala occurrence increased with the area of all forest habitats, habitat patch size and the proportion of primary Eucalyptus tree species; and decreased with mean nearest neighbour distance between forest patches, the density of forest patches, and the density of sealed roads. The difference between the effect of habitat area and configuration was not as strong as theory predicts, with the configuration of remnant forest becoming increasingly important as the area of forest habitat declines. We conclude that the area of forest, its configuration across the landscape, as well as the land use matrix, are important determinants of koala occurrence, and that habitat configuration should not be overlooked in the conservation of forest-dependent mammals, such as the koala. We highlight the implications of these findings for koala conservation. (c) 2006 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.