874 resultados para 24 Hour Dietary Recall


Relevância:

100.00% 100.00%

Publicador:

Resumo:

The mating behavior of the coffee berry borer, (Ferrari), was observed under laboratory conditions. Pairs of adult virgin male and female beetles were placed in the wells of a polystyrene microtiter plate, one pair per well. The mating activity of each pair was recorded for 24 h. The mating behavior of the coffee berry borer was similar to that of other Scolytinae and was clearly divided into precopulatory, copulatory and postcopulatory phases. The beetles started to mate within a few hours of emergence. Repeated mating occurred during the 24-hour period and increased in frequency with age. However, we cannot address multiple matings in , since we did not simulate the female-biased sex ratio of this species and the experimental design did not allow females to avoid additional mating attempts by males. In addition, further studies are necessary that focus on the effectiveness of sperm transmission and direct and indirect effects of multiple matings on the ei females and their offspring.

Relevância:

100.00% 100.00%

Publicador:

Resumo:

Abstract Background Lipoprotein-associated phospholipase A2 activity (Lp-PLA2) is a good marker of cardiovascular risk in adults. It is strongly associated with stroke and many others cardiovascular events. Despite this, the impact of obesity on this enzyme activity and its relation to biomarkers of cardiovascular disease in adolescents is not very well investigated. The purpose of this article is to evaluate the influence of obesity and cardiometabolic markers on Lp-PLA2 activity in adolescents. Results This cross-sectional study included 242 adolescents (10–19 years) of both gender. These subjects were classified in Healthy Weight (n = 77), Overweight (n = 82) and Obese (n = 83) groups. Lipid profile, glucose, insulin, HDL size, LDL(−) and anti-LDL(−) antibodies were analyzed. The Lp-PLA2 activity was determined by a colorimetric commercial kit. Body mass index (BMI), waist circumference and body composition were monitored. Food intake was evaluated using three 24-hour diet recalls. The Lp-PLA2 activity changed in function to high BMI, waist circumference and fat mass percentage. It was also positively associated with HOMA-IR, glucose, insulin and almost all variables of lipid profile. Furthermore, it was negatively related to Apo AI (β = −0.137; P = 0.038) and strongly positively associated with Apo B (β = 0.293; P < 0.001) and with Apo B/Apo AI ratio (β = 0.343; P < 0.001). The better predictor model for enzyme activity, on multivariate analysis, included Apo B/Apo AI (β = 0.327; P < 0.001), HDL size (β = −0.326; P < 0.001), WC (β = 0.171; P = 0.006) and glucose (β = 0.119; P = 0.038). Logistic regression analysis demonstrated that changes in Apo B/Apo AI ratio were associated with a 73.5 times higher risk to elevated Lp-PLA2 activity. Conclusions Lp-PLA2 changes in function of obesity, and that it shows important associations with markers of cardiovascular risk, in particular with waist circumference, glucose, HDL size and Apo B/Apo AI ratio. These results suggest that Lp-PLA2 activity can be a cardiovascular biomarker in adolescence.

Relevância:

100.00% 100.00%

Publicador:

Resumo:

Ceftazidime is a broad spectrum antibiotic administered mainly by the parenteral route, and it is especially effective against Pseudomonas aeruginosa. The period of time in which serum levels exceed the Minimum Inhibitory Concentration (MIC) is an important pharmacodynamic parameter for its efficacy. One of the forms to extend this period is to administer the antibiotic by continuous infusion, after prior dilution in a Parenteral Solution (PS). The present work assessed the stability of ceftazidime in 5% glucose PS for 24 hours, combined or not with aminophylline, through High Performance Liquid Chromatography (HPLC). The physicochemical evaluation was accompanied by in vitro antimicrobial activity compared MIC test in the 24-hour period. Escherichia coli and Pseudomonas aeruginosa were the microorganisms chosen for the MIC comparison. The HPLC analysis confirmed ceftazidime and aminophylline individual stability on PS, while the MIC values were slightly higher than the mean described in the literature. When both drugs were associated in the same PS, the ceftazidime concentration by HPLC decreased 25% after 24 hours. Not only did the MIC values show high loss of antibiotic activity within the same period, but also altered MIC values immediately after the preparation, which was not detected by HPLC. Our results indicate that this drug combination is not compatible, even if used right away, and that PS might not be the best vehicle for ceftazidime, emphasizing the importance of the MIC evaluation for drug interactions.

Relevância:

100.00% 100.00%

Publicador:

Resumo:

Ceftazidime is a broad spectrum antibiotic administered mainly by the parenteral route, and it is especially effective against Pseudomonas aeruginosa. The period of time in which serum levels exceed the Minimum Inhibitory Concentration (MIC) is an important pharmacodynamic parameter for its efficacy. One of the forms to extend this period is to administer the antibiotic by continuous infusion, after prior dilution in a Parenteral Solution (PS). The present work assessed the stability of ceftazidime in 5% glucose PS for 24 hours, combined or not with aminophylline, through High Performance Liquid Chromatography (HPLC). The physicochemical evaluation was accompanied by in vitro antimicrobial activity compared MIC test in the 24-hour period. Escherichia coli and Pseudomonas aeruginosa were the microorganisms chosen for the MIC comparison. The HPLC analysis confirmed ceftazidime and aminophylline individual stability on PS, while the MIC values were slightly higher than the mean described in the literature. When both drugs were associated in the same PS, the ceftazidime concentration by HPLC decreased 25% after 24 hours. Not only did the MIC values show high loss of antibiotic activity within the same period, but also altered MIC values immediately after the preparation, which was not detected by HPLC. Our results indicate that this drug combination is not compatible, even if used right away, and that PS might not be the best vehicle for ceftazidime, emphasizing the importance of the MIC evaluation for drug interactions.

Relevância:

100.00% 100.00%

Publicador:

Resumo:

Untersuchung zum Einfluss der ACD-CPR (Aktive Kompressions- Dekompressions-Reanimation) mit während der Dekompressionsphase blockiertem Gasfluss (Impedance-Threshold-Device) im Vergleich zur Standardreanimationsrechnik auf die Kurzzeit-Überlebensrate von Patienten mit präklinisch aufgetretenem Herzkreislaufstillstand. Die Studie vergleicht die ACD-ITD-CPR gegen die Standard-CPR bei Patienten mit präklinischem Herkreislaufstillstand. Primär untersuchter Parameter war die Ein-Stunden-Überlebensrate nach Krankenhausaufnahme. Sekundär wurden die Tastbarkeit eines Pulses unter CPR, die Wiederkehr des Spontankreislaufs (ROSC), die Rate an Krankenhausaufnahmen, 24-Stunden-Überleben und Krankenhausentlassungen untersucht. Außerdem wurde das neurologische Outcome evaluiert. Die Studie fand in Mainz statt; Mainz bietet sich für die Durchführung notfallmedizinischer Studien in besonderem Maße an. Der Rettungsdienst der Stadt arbeitet nach dem in Deutschland üblichen zweigliedrigen System mit RA/RS auf RTWs und NA auf NAW/NEF. Die Studie wurde nach einer fünfmonatigen Pilotphase und extensivem Training beider Verfahren durchgeführt. Zusätzlich bestanden bei einigen der Beteiligten schon Erfahrungen mit ACD-CPR. Es ergaben sich signifikante Vorteile der ACD-ITD-CPR gegenüber der Standard-CPR hinsichtlich des primär untersuchten Parameters (51% vs. 32% p=0,006), außerdem statistisch auffällige Vorteile hinsichtlich der Pulstastbarkeit unter CPR (85% vs. 69%, p=0,008), der Wiederkehr des Spontankreislaufs (55% vs. 37%, p=0,016), der Rate der Krankenhausaufnahmen (52% vs. 36%, p=0.023) und des 24-Stunden-Überlebens (37% vs. 22%, p=0,033). Es ergaben sich keine statistisch auffälligen Unterschiede hinsichtlich der Rate an Krankenhausentlassungen und im neurologischen Outcome. Die Ergebnisse lassen den Schluss zu, dass die ACD-ITD die Kurzzeitüberlebensrate der Patienten mit außerklinischem Herzkreislaufstillstand verbessern kann. Eine Voraussetzung hierfür ist eine ausreichende und andauernde Ausbildung der beteiligten Helfer und/oder die Verfügbarkeit technisch verbesserter Lösungen. Weitere Untersuchungen zum Einfluss auf die Langzeitüberlebensraten und das neurologische Outcome scheinen angezeigt.

Relevância:

100.00% 100.00%

Publicador:

Resumo:

Scopo del nostro studio è quello di valutare i disturbi cognitivi in relazione al tasso di microembolia cerebrale in due gruppi di pazienti trattati per lesione carotidea asintomatica con endoarterectomia (CEA) o stenting (CAS). Comparando le due metodiche mediante l’utilizzo di risonanza magnetica in diffusione (DW-MRI), neuromarkers (NSE e S100β) e test neuropsicometrici. MATERIALE E METODI: 60 pazienti sono stati sottoposti a rivascolarizzazione carotidea (CEA n=32 e CAS n=28). Sono stati tutti valutati con DW-MRI e Mini-Mental State Examination (MMSE) test nel preoperatorio, a 24 ore, a 6 ed a 12 mesi dall’intervento. In tutti sono stati dosati i livelli sierici di NSE e S100β mediante 5 prelievi seriati nel tempo, quello basale nel preoperatorio, l’ultimo a 24 ore. L’ananlisi statistica è stata effettuata con test t di Student per confronti multipli per valori continui e con test χ2 quadro e Fisher per le variabili categoriche. Significatività P <0,05. RISULTATI: Non vi è stato alcun decesso. Un paziente del gruppo CAS ha presentato un ictus ischemico. In 6 pazienti CAS ed in 1 paziente CEA si sono osservate nuove lesioni subcliniche alla RMN-DWI post-operatoria (21,4% vs 3% p=0,03). Nel gruppo CAS le nuove lesioni presenti alla RMN sono risultate significativamente associate ad un declino del punteggio del MMSE (p=0,001). L’analisi dei livelli di NSE e S100β ha mostrato un significativo aumento a 24 ore nei pazienti CAS (P = .02). A 12 mesi i pazienti che avevano presentato nuove lesioni ischemiche nel post-operatorio hanno mostrato minor punteggio al MMSE, non statisticamente significativo. CONCLUSIONI: I neuromarkers in combinazione con MMSE e RMN-DWI possono essere utilizzati nella valutazione del declino cognitivo correlato a lesioni silenti nell’immediato postoperatorio di rivascolarizzazione carotidea. Quest’ultime dovrebbero essere valutate quindi non solo rispetto al tasso di mortalità e ictus, ma anche rispetto al tasso di microembolia.

Relevância:

100.00% 100.00%

Publicador:

Resumo:

Infektionen zählen bei hämodialysepflichtigen Intensivpatienten zu den häufigsten Todesursachen. Um die Wirksamkeit und Sicherheit der Antibiotikatherapie zu verbessern, müssen verschiedene Faktoren, zum Beispiel die Pharmakodynamik und Pharmakokinetik des Antibiotikums, die Art des Hämodialyseverfahrens, die Art des Dialysefilters und der Zustand des Patienten berücksichtigt werden. Im Rahmen einer klinischen Studie wurde die antibiotische Wirkung von Piperacillin und Ciprofloxacin bei kontinuierlichen Hämodialyseverfahren mittels pharmakokinetischer Methoden bestimmt.Für die klinische Studie wurde eine HPLC-Methode mit kombinierter Festphasenextraktion (SPE) entwickelt und nach den Grenzwerten der EMA Guideline on Bioanalytical Method Validation validiert. Die Methode erwies sich für die gleichzeitige Bestimmung von Piperacillin und Ciprofloxacin in Plasma- und Dialysatproben als valide und zuverlässig. Die ermittelten Konzentrationen der beiden Antibiotika wurden für die Berechnung der pharmakokinetischen Parameter verwendet.In der klinischen Studie wurden bei 24 Intensivpatienten mit kontinuierlicher venovenöser Hämodialyse (CVVHD) bzw. kontinuierlicher venovenöser Hämodiafiltration (CVVHDF), bei denen Piperacillin/Tazobactam, Ciprofloxacin oder eine Kombination dieser Antibiotika indiziert war, die Antibiotikakonzentrationen im Plasma und Dialysat im Steady State gemessen. Unmittelbar vor einer Antibiotikainfusion (0 min) wurde ein Volumen von sechs Milliliter Blut entnommen. Weitere Blutentnahmen erfolgten 30 Minuten nach der Infusion sowie nach 1, 2, 3, 4, 8, 12 und 24 Stunden. Sobald ein Filtratbeutel ausgetauscht wurde, wurden parallel zu den Blutproben Dialysatproben entnommen. Die Konzentrationen von Piperacillin und Ciprofloxacin wurden nach der Festphasenextraktion aus den Plasmaproben mit der validierten HPLC-Methode innerhalb von 15 Minuten zuverlässig bestimmt. Neben den gemessenen Plasmakonzentrationen (Cmax, Cmin) wurden pharmakokinetische Parameter wie t0,5, VdSS, AUC, Cltot, ClCRRT und Clextrarenal berechnet. Für Piperacillin wurde untersucht, ob die Plasmaspiegel der Patienten für das gesamte Dosierungsintervall oberhalb der geforderten vierfachen MHK von 64 mg/l liegen. Für Ciprofloxacin wurde untersucht, ob die aus gemessenen Plasmaspiegeln berechnete AUC den Quotienten aus AUC und MHK (=AUIC) ≥ 125 h erfüllt.Bei zehn der 21 mit Piperacillin behandelten Patienten lagen die Plasmaspiegel unterhalb der angestrebten Konzentration von 64 mg/l für das gesamte Dosierungsintervall. Das Patientenkollektiv wies eine große interindividuelle Variabilität auf. Mit einer Wahrscheinlichkeit von 95 % waren 26 - 70 % der Patienten unterdosiert. In der Gruppe der mit Ciprofloxacin behandelten Patienten wurde die angestrebte AUIC von 125 h nur bei neun der 20 Patienten erreicht. Mit einer Wahrscheinlichkeit von 95 % waren 29 - 76 % der Patienten unterdosiert. Die kontinuierlichen Nierenersatzverfahren hatten nur einen geringen Anteil an der totalen Clearance der untersuchten Antibiotika. Während die Clearance des kontinuierlichen Nierenersatzverfahren bei Piperacillin für ein Drittel der Arzneistoffelimination verantwortlich war, trug diese im Fall von Ciprofloxacin lediglich zu 16 % zur Arzneistoffelimination bei.Die Dosierung von Piperacillin/Tazobactam bzw. Ciprofloxacin sollte bei kritisch kranken Intensivpatienten mit kontinuierlicher Hämodialyse mindestens 4 mal 4/0,5 g pro Tag bzw. 2 mal 400 mg pro Tag betragen. Diese Empfehlungen sind insbesondere für die verwendeten Dialyseverfahren und -bedingungen zutreffend. Zur weiteren Optimierung der Antibiotikatherapie ist ein Therapeutisches Drug Monitoring empfehlenswert.

Relevância:

100.00% 100.00%

Publicador:

Resumo:

The US penitentiary at Lewisburg, Pennsylvania, was retrofitted in 2008 to offer the country’s first federal Special Management Unit (SMU) program of its kind. This model SMU is designed for federal inmates from around the country identified as the most intractably troublesome, and features double-celling of inmates in tiny spaces, in 23-hour or 24-hour a day lockdown, requiring them to pass through a two-year program of readjustment. These spatial tactics, and the philosophy of punishment underlying them, contrast with the modern reform ideals upon which the prison was designed and built in 1932. The SMU represents the latest punitive phase in American penology, one that neither simply eliminates men as in the premodern spectacle, nor creates the docile, rehabilitated bodies of the modern panopticon; rather, it is a late-modern structure that produces only fear, terror, violence, and death. This SMU represents the latest of the late-modern prisons, similar to other supermax facilities in the US but offering its own unique system of punishment as well. While the prison exists within the system of American law and jurisprudence, it also manifests features of Agamben’s lawless, camp-like space that emerges during a state of exception, exempt from outside scrutiny with inmate treatment typically beyond the scope of the law.

Relevância:

100.00% 100.00%

Publicador:

Resumo:

The US penitentiary at Lewisburg, Pennsylvania, was retrofitted in 2008 to offer the country's first federal Special Management Unit (SMU) program of its kind. This model SMU is designed for federal inmates from around the country identified as the most intractably troublesome, and features double-celling of inmates in tiny spaces, in 23-hour or 24-hour a day lockdown, requiring them to pass through a two-year program of readjustment. These spatial tactics, and the philosophy of punishment underlying them, contrast with the modern reform ideals upon which the prison was designed and built in 1932. The SMU represents the latest punitive phase in American penology, one that neither simply eliminates men as in the premodern spectacle, nor creates the docile, rehabilitated bodies of the modern panopticon; rather, it is a late-modern structure that produces only fear, terror, violence, and death. This SMU represents the latest of the late-modern prisons, similar to other supermax facilities in the US but offering its own unique system of punishment as well. While the prison exists within the system of American law and jurisprudence, it also manifests features of Agamben's lawless, camp-like space that emerges during a state of exception, exempt from outside scrutiny with inmate treatment typically beyond the scope of the law

Relevância:

100.00% 100.00%

Publicador:

Resumo:

Alterations of brain structure and function have been associated with psychomotor retardation in major depressive disorder (MDD). However, the association of motor behaviour and white matter integrity of motor pathways in MDD is unclear. The aim of the present study was to first investigate structural connectivity of white matter motor pathways in MDD. Second, we explore the relation of objectively measured motor activity and white matter integrity of motor pathways in MDD. Therefore, 21 patients with MDD and 21 healthy controls matched for age, gender, education and body mass index underwent diffusion tensor imaging and 24 hour actigraphy (measure of the activity level) the same day. Applying a probabilistic fibre tracking approach we extracted connection pathways between the dorsolateral prefrontal cortex (dlPFC), the rostral anterior cingulate cortex (rACC), the pre-supplementary motor area (pre-SMA), the SMA-proper, the primary motor cortex (M1), the caudate nucleus, the putamen, the pallidum and the thalamus. Patients had lower activity levels and demonstrated increased mean diffusivity (MD) in pathways linking left pre-SMA and SMA-proper, and right SMA-proper and M1. Exploratory analyses point to a positive association of activity level and mean-fractional anisotropy in the right rACC-pre-SMA connection in MDD. Only MDD patients with low activity levels had a negative linear association of activity level and mean-MD in the left dlPFC-pre-SMA connection. Our results point to structural alterations of cortico-cortical white matter motor pathways in MDD. Altered white matter organisation of rACC-pre-SMA and dlPFC-pre-SMA pathways may contribute to movement initiation in MDD.

Relevância:

100.00% 100.00%

Publicador:

Resumo:

Long-term endurance sports are associated with atrial remodeling and atrial arrhythmias. More importantly, high-level endurance training may promote right ventricular (RV) dysfunction and complex ventricular arrhythmias. We investigated the long-term consequences of marathon running on cardiac remodeling as a potential substrate for arrhythmias with a focus on the right heart. We invited runners of the 2010 Grand Prix of Bern, a 10-mile race. Of 873 marathon and nonmarathon runners who applied, 122 (61 women) entered the final analysis. Subjects were stratified according to former marathon participations: control group (nonmarathon runners, n = 34), group 1 (1 marathon to 5 marathons, mean 2.7, n = 46), and group 2 (≥6 marathons, mean 12.8, n = 42). Mean age was 42 ± 7 years. Results were adjusted for gender, age, and lifetime training hours. Right and left atrial sizes increased with marathon participations. In group 2, right and left atrial enlargements were present in 60% and 74% of athletes, respectively. RV and left ventricular (LV) dimensions showed no differences among groups, and RV or LV dilatation was present in only 2.4% or 4.3% of marathon runners, respectively. In multiple linear regression analysis, marathon participation was an independent predictor of right and left atrial sizes but had no effect on RV and LV dimensions and function. Atrial and ventricular ectopic complexes during 24-hour Holter monitoring were low and equally distributed among groups. In conclusion, in nonelite athletes, marathon running was not associated with RV enlargement, dysfunction, or ventricular ectopy. Marathon running promoted biatrial remodeling.

Relevância:

100.00% 100.00%

Publicador:

Resumo:

The usual treatment of dogs with inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) consists of administration of immunosuppressive doses of steroids. However, some dogs are refractory to steroid treatment and pose a significant challenge to the veterinarian. Because cyclosporine A (cyA) has been shown to be effective in steroid-resistant IBD in humans, the purpose of this study was to investigate the pharmacokinetics and clinical efficacy of PO cyA treatment in dogs with steroid-refractory IBD (n = 14). All dogs were treated with cyA 5 mg/kg PO q24h for a period of 10 weeks. A clinical activity score was assigned to assess severity of clinical signs before and after treatment. The total number of infiltrating lymphocytes and T cells in duodenal biopsies were assessed before and after treatment in 9 dogs. In addition, serum concentration of cyA was measured in 8 dogs over a 24-hour period. Pharmacokinetic profiles in dogs with IBD were similar to those of healthy dogs. Improvement of clinical signs was observed in 12 of 14 dogs with IBD. Median clinical activity score after treatment with cyA was significantly reduced from a median score of 9 to a median score of 5 (P = 0.001). T cell numbers in duodenal biopsies were significantly decreased after treatment from a median +/- 95% range in the villous region of 28 (19-30) cells/10,000 microm2 before versus 7 (0-10)/10,000 microm2 after treatment, P = 0.01; and from a median +/- 95% range number in the crypt region of 15 (6-23) cells/10,000 microm2 before versus 4 (0-9)/10,000 microm2 after treatment, P = 0.02, implying T cell lysis as a possible mechanism of action. In conclusion, based on this small study, cyA appears to be an effective alternative drug in dogs with IBD that are refractory to immunosuppressive doses of steroids.

Relevância:

100.00% 100.00%

Publicador:

Resumo:

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: Basilar artery occlusion (BAO) is an infrequent form of acute stroke, which invariably leads to death or long-term disability if not recanalized. A traditional recanalization approach based on historical controls and pathophysiological consideration is local intra-arterial thrombolysis (IAT) in eligible patients. This necessitates diagnostic evaluation and treatment in stroke centers equipped with an interventional neuroradiological service on a 24-hour basis, but its superiority to the technically simple intravenous thrombolysis (IVT) remains unproven. METHODS: We analyzed systematically published case series of substantial size reporting the outcome of BAO after IAT or IVT. RESULTS: In 420 BAO patients treated with IVT (76) and IAT (344), death or dependency were equally common: 78% (59 of 76) and 76% (260 of 344), respectively (P=0.82). Recanalization was achieved more frequently with IAT (225 of 344; 65%) than with IVT (40 of 76; 53%; P=0.05), but survival rates after IVT (38 of 76; 50%) and IAT (154 of 344; 45%) were equal (P=0.48). A total of 24% of patients treated with IAT and 22% treated with IVT reached good outcomes (P=0.82). Without recanalization, the likelihood of good outcome was close to nil (2%). CONCLUSIONS: Recanalization occurs in more than half of BAO patients treated with IAT or IVT, and 45% to 55% of survivors regain functional independence. Although improved therapy forms for BAO are necessary, hospitals not equipped for IAT may set up IVT protocols. The effect of IVT is probably not much different from the effect of IAT. IVT represents probably the best treatment that can be offered to victims of acute BAO in such hospitals.

Relevância:

100.00% 100.00%

Publicador:

Resumo:

PURPOSE: The aim of this study was to determine occupational facial fractures in central Switzerland. Concomitant injuries were also studied. MATERIALS AND METHODS: The Department of Cranio-Maxillofacial Surgery at the University Hospital in Berne provides a 24-hour maxillofacial trauma service for its population (1.6 million). The present study was comprised of 42 patients (8.4% of treated maxillofacial injuries) with occupational maxillofacial fractures registered at this unit between 2000 and 2002. Information on the topic of occupation, the cause of the accidents, and the topographic location of the fractures was analyzed. RESULTS: The mean age of the patients was 44.4 years, with a male to female ratio of 41:1. Sixty-nine percent of the injuries occurred in farm and forestry workers and in construction laborers during the summertime (33%). Workers in these occupations carried a 127-fold (farm and forestry workers) and a 44-fold (construction laborers) higher risk of incurring maxillofacial fractures than did service and office workers. Injuries were most frequently (43%) caused by a thrown, projected, or falling object. Eighty-two percent of the fractures occurred in the midface region and at the skull base. Fifty-nine percent of the patients had concomitant injuries. In 69%, surgery was necessary, the mean duration of their hospital stay being 4.8 days. CONCLUSION: The probability of sustaining work-related maxillofacial traumata is correlated to the nature of the occupation. Farm and forestry workers are at the highest risk, most frequently injured by being struck by an object or an animal. The introduction of personalized safety measures should become obligatory in high-risk occupations.

Relevância:

100.00% 100.00%

Publicador:

Resumo:

The AEGISS (Ascertainment and Enhancement of Gastrointestinal Infection Surveillance and Statistics) project aims to use spatio-temporal statistical methods to identify anomalies in the space-time distribution of non-specific, gastrointestinal infections in the UK, using the Southampton area in southern England as a test-case. In this paper, we use the AEGISS project to illustrate how spatio-temporal point process methodology can be used in the development of a rapid-response, spatial surveillance system. Current surveillance of gastroenteric disease in the UK relies on general practitioners reporting cases of suspected food-poisoning through a statutory notification scheme, voluntary laboratory reports of the isolation of gastrointestinal pathogens and standard reports of general outbreaks of infectious intestinal disease by public health and environmental health authorities. However, most statutory notifications are made only after a laboratory reports the isolation of a gastrointestinal pathogen. As a result, detection is delayed and the ability to react to an emerging outbreak is reduced. For more detailed discussion, see Diggle et al. (2003). A new and potentially valuable source of data on the incidence of non-specific gastro-enteric infections in the UK is NHS Direct, a 24-hour phone-in clinical advice service. NHS Direct data are less likely than reports by general practitioners to suffer from spatially and temporally localized inconsistencies in reporting rates. Also, reporting delays by patients are likely to be reduced, as no appointments are needed. Against this, NHS Direct data sacrifice specificity. Each call to NHS Direct is classified only according to the general pattern of reported symptoms (Cooper et al, 2003). The current paper focuses on the use of spatio-temporal statistical analysis for early detection of unexplained variation in the spatio-temporal incidence of non-specific gastroenteric symptoms, as reported to NHS Direct. Section 2 describes our statistical formulation of this problem, the nature of the available data and our approach to predictive inference. Section 3 describes the stochastic model. Section 4 gives the results of fitting the model to NHS Direct data. Section 5 shows how the model is used for spatio-temporal prediction. The paper concludes with a short discussion.