Determining the role of linear and nonlinear interactions in records of climate change: possible solar influences in annual to century-scale records

Time series analysis methods have traditionally helped in identifying the role of various forcing mechanisms in influencing climate change. A challenge to understanding decadal and century-scale climate change has been that the linkages between climate changes and potential forcing mechanisms such as solar variability are often uncertain. However, most studies have focused on the role of climate forcing and climate response within a strictly linear framework. Nonlinear time series analysis procedures provide the opportunity to analyze the role of climate forcing and climate responses between different time scales of climate change. An example is provided by the possible nonlinear response of paleo-ENSO-scale climate changes as identified from coral records to forcing by the solar cycle at longer time scales.

Reconstructing 20th century flood patterns in Havasu Creek, Arizona, using historical and dendrochronologic data [abstract]

EXTRACT (SEE PDF FOR FULL ABSTRACT): Havasu Creek is the second largest tributary of the Colorado River in Grant Canyon. Perennial streamflow in the creek seldom exceeds 2 cubic meters per second, but it supports an important riparian habitat as well as unique travertine pools and waterfalls that attract over 20,000 tourists annually. Havasu Canyon is also home to over 400 members of the Havasu Tribe. Despite a long history of habitation and recreation in Havasu Canyon, streamflow records for Havasu Creek are extremely limited, making flood prediction difficult.

Integrating varve and tree-ring time series for southern California climate reconstruction: a 20th century outlook [abstract]

EXTRACT (SEE PDF FOR FULL ABSTRACT): Our objective is to combine terrestrial and oceanic records for reconstructing West Coast climate. Tree rings and marine laminated sediments provide high-resolution, accurately dated proxy data on the variability of climate and on the productivity of the ocean and have been used to reconstruct precipitation, temperature, sea level pressure, primary productivity, and other large-scale parameters. We present here the latest Santa Barbara basin varve chronology for the twentieth century as well as a newly developed tree-ring chronology for Torrey pine.

The top ten California floods of the 20th century

The purpose of this paper is to summarize the biggest northern California floods of the 20th century. Flooding in California can occur from different causes. At least three types of floods occur: 1. Winter general floods, which cover a large area. 2. Spring and early summer snowmelt floods unique to the higher-elevation central and southern Sierra Nevada, which occur about once in 10 years on the average. 3. Local floods from strong thunderstorms, with intense rain over a relatively small area. These originate in moist tropical or subtropical air and include the flash floods of the desert and other areas of southern California when remnants of eastern Pacific hurricanes get carried into the state.

Challenges for turbomachinery CFD in the 21st century

This lecture aims to identify a range of problems in turbomachinery which deserve attention. There is a discussion of what current levels of CFD can offer towards solving these problems. Finally, fruitful areas of future CFD research are described and current progress in these areas is summarised.

AI in the 21st century - With historical reflections

The discipline of Artificial Intelligence (AI) was born in the summer of 1956 at Dartmouth College in Hanover, New Hampshire. Half of a century has passed, and AI has turned into an important field whose influence on our daily lives can hardly be overestimated. The original view of intelligence as a computer program - a set of algorithms to process symbols - has led to many useful applications now found in internet search engines, voice recognition software, cars, home appliances, and consumer electronics, but it has not yet contributed significantly to our understanding of natural forms of intelligence. Since the 1980s, AI has expanded into a broader study of the interaction between the body, brain, and environment, and how intelligence emerges from such interaction. This advent of embodiment has provided an entirely new way of thinking that goes well beyond artificial intelligence proper, to include the study of intelligent action in agents other than organisms or robots. For example, it supplies powerful metaphors for viewing corporations, groups of agents, and networked embedded devices as intelligent and adaptive systems acting in highly uncertain and unpredictable environments. In addition to giving us a novel outlook on information technology in general, this broader view of AI also offers unexpected perspectives into how to think about ourselves and the world around us. In this chapter, we briefly review the turbulent history of AI research, point to some of its current trends, and to challenges that the AI of the 21st century will have to face. © Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg 2007.

利用CENTURY模型研究东北黑土有机碳的动态变化Ⅰ.自然状态下土壤有机碳的积累

应用CENTURY模型 ,对自然状态下的黑土有机碳库进行了模拟 .结果表明 ,在自然状态下 ,黑土有机碳库经历了一个由快到慢的增长过程 ,经过长时间积累 ,趋向于稳定状态 .0～ 2 0cm表层土壤有机碳总量最后稳定在 7914 72～ 116 72 78g·m-2 .黑土有机碳从北向南总的趋势是逐渐降低 .达到稳定状态时 ,活性土壤有机碳库、慢分解土壤有机碳库和惰性土壤有机碳库分别占土壤全碳的 3 36 %～ 4 6 2 %、5 0 5 4 %～ 5 5 4 7%和 36 4 7%～ 4 1 95 % ,可见慢分解和惰性组分库的增长对土壤有机碳库的积累起到了重要作用 .模型模拟结果与已发表的实测结果比较接近 ,可以为进一步研究开垦后黑土有机碳变化提供依据 .

Spatial patterns and driving forces of land use change in China during the early 21st century

Land use and land cover change as the core of coupled human-environment systems has become a potential field of land change science (LCS) in the study of global environmental change. Based on remotely sensed data of land use change with a spatial resolution of 1 km x 1 km on national scale among every 5 years, this paper designed a new dynamic regionalization according to the comprehensive characteristics of land use change including regional differentiation, physical, economic, and macro-policy factors as well. Spatial pattern of land use change and its driving forces were investigated in China in the early 21st century. To sum up, land use change pattern of this period was characterized by rapid changes in the whole country. Over the agricultural zones, e.g., Huang-Huai-Hai Plain, the southeast coastal areas and Sichuan Basin, a great proportion of fine arable land were engrossed owing to considerable expansion of the built-up and residential areas, resulting in decrease of paddy land area in southern China. The development of oasis agriculture in Northwest China and the reclamation in Northeast China led to a slight increase in arable land area in northern China. Due to the "Grain for Green" policy, forest area was significantly increased in the middle and western developing regions, where the vegetation coverage was substantially enlarged, likewise. This paper argued the main driving forces as the implementation of the strategy on land use and regional development, such as policies of "Western Development", "Revitalization of Northeast", coupled with rapidly economic development during this period.