Calibration of structure in a distributed forecasting model for a semiarid flash flood: dynamic surface storage and channel roughness

Flash floods pose a significant danger for life and property. Unfortunately, in arid and semiarid environment the runoff generation shows a complex non-linear behavior with a strong spatial and temporal non-uniformity. As a result, the predictions made by physically-based simulations in semiarid areas are subject to great uncertainty, and a failure in the predictive behavior of existing models is common. Thus better descriptions of physical processes at the watershed scale need to be incorporated into the hydrological model structures. For example, terrain relief has been systematically considered static in flood modelling at the watershed scale. Here, we show that the integrated effect of small distributed relief variations originated through concurrent hydrological processes within a storm event was significant on the watershed scale hydrograph. We model these observations by introducing dynamic formulations of two relief-related parameters at diverse scales: maximum depression storage, and roughness coefficient in channels. In the final (a posteriori) model structure these parameters are allowed to be both time-constant or time-varying. The case under study is a convective storm in a semiarid Mediterranean watershed with ephemeral channels and high agricultural pressures (the Rambla del Albujón watershed; 556 km 2 ), which showed a complex multi-peak response. First, to obtain quasi-sensible simulations in the (a priori) model with time-constant relief-related parameters, a spatially distributed parameterization was strictly required. Second, a generalized likelihood uncertainty estimation (GLUE) inference applied to the improved model structure, and conditioned to observed nested hydrographs, showed that accounting for dynamic relief-related parameters led to improved simulations. The discussion is finally broadened by considering the use of the calibrated model both to analyze the sensitivity of the watershed to storm motion and to attempt the flood forecasting of a stratiform event with highly different behavior.

Using reanalysis data to quantify extreme wind power generation statistics : a 33 year case study in Great Britain

With a rapidly increasing fraction of electricity generation being sourced from wind, extreme wind power generation events such as prolonged periods of low (or high) generation and ramps in generation, are a growing concern for the efficient and secure operation of national power systems. As extreme events occur infrequently, long and reliable meteorological records are required to accurately estimate their characteristics. Recent publications have begun to investigate the use of global meteorological “reanalysis” data sets for power system applications, many of which focus on long-term average statistics such as monthly-mean generation. Here we demonstrate that reanalysis data can also be used to estimate the frequency of relatively short-lived extreme events (including ramping on sub-daily time scales). Verification against 328 surface observation stations across the United Kingdom suggests that near-surface wind variability over spatiotemporal scales greater than around 300 km and 6 h can be faithfully reproduced using reanalysis, with no need for costly dynamical downscaling. A case study is presented in which a state-of-the-art, 33 year reanalysis data set (MERRA, from NASA-GMAO), is used to construct an hourly time series of nationally-aggregated wind power generation in Great Britain (GB), assuming a fixed, modern distribution of wind farms. The resultant generation estimates are highly correlated with recorded data from National Grid in the recent period, both for instantaneous hourly values and for variability over time intervals greater than around 6 h. This 33 year time series is then used to quantify the frequency with which different extreme GB-wide wind power generation events occur, as well as their seasonal and inter-annual variability. Several novel insights into the nature of extreme wind power generation events are described, including (i) that the number of prolonged low or high generation events is well approximated by a Poission-like random process, and (ii) whilst in general there is large seasonal variability, the magnitude of the most extreme ramps is similar in both summer and winter. An up-to-date version of the GB case study data as well as the underlying model are freely available for download from our website: http://www.met.reading.ac.uk/~energymet/data/Cannon2014/.

Biomedical applications of hydrogels: a review of patents and commercial products

Hydrogels have become very popular due to their unique properties such as high water content, softness, flexibility and biocompatibility. Natural and synthetic hydrophilic polymers can be physically or chemically cross-linked in order to produce hydrogels. Their resemblance to living tissue opens up many opportunities for applications in biomedical areas. Currently, hydrogels are used for manufacturing contact lenses, hygiene products, tissue engineering scaffolds, drug delivery systems and wound dressings. This review provides an analysis of their main characteristics and biomedical applications. From Wichterle’s pioneering work to the most recent hydrogel-based inventions and products on the market, it provides the reader with a detailed introduction to the topic and perspective on further potential developments.

The economics of enhanced landfill mining: private and societal performance drivers

This paper addresses the economics of Enhanced Landfill Mining (ELFM) both from a private point of view as well as from a society perspective. The private potential is assessed using a case study for which an investment model is developed to identify the impact of a broad range of parameters on the profitability of ELFM. We found that especially variations in Waste-to-Energy (WtE efficiency, electricity price, CO2-price, WtE investment and operational costs) and ELFM support explain the variation in economic profitability measured by the Internal Rate of Return. To overcome site-specific parameters we also evaluated the regional ELFM potential for the densely populated and industrial region of Flanders (north of Belgium). The total number of potential ELFM sites was estimated using a 5-step procedure and a simulation tool was developed to trade-off private costs and benefits. The analysis shows that there is a substantial economic potential for ELFM projects on the wider regional level. Furthermore, this paper also reviews the costs and benefits from a broader perspective. The carbon footprint of the case study was mapped in order to assess the project’s net impact in terms of greenhouse gas emissions. Also the impacts of nature restoration, soil remediation, resource scarcity and reduced import dependence were valued so that they can be used in future social cost-benefit analysis. Given the complex trade-off between economic, social and environmental issues of ELFM projects, we conclude that further refinement of the methodological framework and the development of the integrated decision tools supporting private and public actors, are necessary.

How do I know if my forecasts are better? Using benchmarks in Hydrological ensemble prediction

The skill of a forecast can be assessed by comparing the relative proximity of both the forecast and a benchmark to the observations. Example benchmarks include climatology or a naïve forecast. Hydrological ensemble prediction systems (HEPS) are currently transforming the hydrological forecasting environment but in this new field there is little information to guide researchers and operational forecasters on how benchmarks can be best used to evaluate their probabilistic forecasts. In this study, it is identified that the forecast skill calculated can vary depending on the benchmark selected and that the selection of a benchmark for determining forecasting system skill is sensitive to a number of hydrological and system factors. A benchmark intercomparison experiment is then undertaken using the continuous ranked probability score (CRPS), a reference forecasting system and a suite of 23 different methods to derive benchmarks. The benchmarks are assessed within the operational set-up of the European Flood Awareness System (EFAS) to determine those that are ‘toughest to beat’ and so give the most robust discrimination of forecast skill, particularly for the spatial average fields that EFAS relies upon. Evaluating against an observed discharge proxy the benchmark that has most utility for EFAS and avoids the most naïve skill across different hydrological situations is found to be meteorological persistency. This benchmark uses the latest meteorological observations of precipitation and temperature to drive the hydrological model. Hydrological long term average benchmarks, which are currently used in EFAS, are very easily beaten by the forecasting system and the use of these produces much naïve skill. When decomposed into seasons, the advanced meteorological benchmarks, which make use of meteorological observations from the past 20 years at the same calendar date, have the most skill discrimination. They are also good at discriminating skill in low flows and for all catchment sizes. Simpler meteorological benchmarks are particularly useful for high flows. Recommendations for EFAS are to move to routine use of meteorological persistency, an advanced meteorological benchmark and a simple meteorological benchmark in order to provide a robust evaluation of forecast skill. This work provides the first comprehensive evidence on how benchmarks can be used in evaluation of skill in probabilistic hydrological forecasts and which benchmarks are most useful for skill discrimination and avoidance of naïve skill in a large scale HEPS. It is recommended that all HEPS use the evidence and methodology provided here to evaluate which benchmarks to employ; so forecasters can have trust in their skill evaluation and will have confidence that their forecasts are indeed better.

Assessing the ability of rural agrarian areas to provide Cultural Ecosystem Services (CES): a Multi Scale Social Indicator Framework (MSIF)

Assessing the ways in which rural agrarian areas provide Cultural Ecosystem Services (CES) is proving difficult to achieve. This research has developed an innovative methodological approach named as Multi Scale Indicator Framework (MSIF) for capturing the CES embedded into the rural agrarian areas. This framework reconciles a literature review with a trans-disciplinary participatory workshop. Both of these sources reveal that societal preferences diverge upon judgemental criteria which in turn relate to different visual concepts that can be drawn from analysing attributes, elements, features and characteristics of rural areas. We contend that it is now possible to list a group of possible multi scale indicators for stewardship, diversity and aesthetics. These results might also be of use for improving any existing European indicators frameworks by also including CES. This research carries major implications for policy at different levels of governance, as it makes possible to target and monitor policy instruments to the physical rural settings so that cultural dimensions are adequately considered. There is still work to be developed on regional specific values and thresholds for each criteria and its indicator set. In practical terms, by developing the conceptual design within a common framework as described in this paper, a considerable step forward towards the inclusion of the cultural dimension in European wide assessments can be made.

Energy performance ratings and house prices in Wales: an empirical study

This paper investigates the effect of Energy Performance Certificate (EPC) ratings on residential prices in Wales. Drawing on a sample of approximately 192,000 transactions, the capitalisation of energy efficiency ratings into house prices is investigated using two approaches. The first adopts a cross-sectional framework to investigate the effect of EPC rating on price. The second approach applies a repeat-sales methodology to investigate the impact of EPC rating on house price appreciation. Statistically significant positive price premiums are estimated for dwellings in EPC bands A/B (12.8%) and C (3.5%) compared to houses in band D. For dwellings in band E (−3.6%) and F (−6.5%) there are statistically significant discounts. Such effects may not be the result of energy performance alone. In addition to energy cost differences, the price effect may be due to additional benefits of energy efficient features. An analysis of the private rental segment reveals that, in contrast to the general market, low-EPC rated dwellings were not traded at a significant discount. This suggests different implicit prices of potential energy savings for landlords and owner-occupiers.

Are existing biodiversity conservation strategies appropriate in a changing climate?

Many countries have conservation plans for threatened species, but such plans have generally been developed without taking into account the potential impacts of climate change. Here, we apply a decision framework, specifically developed to identify and prioritise climate change adaptation actions and demonstrate its use for 30 species threatened in the UK. Our aim is to assess whether government conservation recommendations remain appropriate under a changing climate. The species, associated with three different habitats (lowland heath, broadleaved woodland and calcareous grassland), were selected from a range of taxonomic groups (primarily moths and vascular plants, but also including bees, bryophytes, carabid beetles and spiders). We compare the actions identified for these threatened species by the decision framework with those included in existing conservation plans, as developed by the UK Government's statutory adviser on nature conservation. We find that many existing conservation recommendations are also identified by the decision framework. However, there are large differences in the spatial prioritisation of actions when explicitly considering projected climate change impacts. This includes recommendations for actions to be carried out in areas where species do not currently occur, in order to allow them to track movement of suitable conditions for their survival. Uncertainties in climate change projections are not a reason to ignore them. Our results suggest that existing conservation plans, which do not take into account potential changes in suitable climatic conditions for species, may fail to maximise species persistence. Comparisons across species also suggest a more habitat-focused approach could be adopted to enable climate change adaptation for multiple species.

Housing provision in 21st century Europe

European housing markets exhibited considerable volatility so far in the 21st century while affordability worsened for many. Boom-bust has had greater housing impacts than any specific housing policy, which illustrates the difficulty in policy terms of seeing housing in isolation and the central significance of interlinked relationships between housing, the economy and financial markets. Europe historically invented a powerful set of interventionist tools to alter housing circumstances but, as the overview of rental markets here indicates, today they have mixed success. Examples of what to avoid in policy are at least as common as exemplars.

In Vitro Evaluation of Acellular Dermal Matrix as a Three-Dimensional Scaffold for Gingival Fibroblasts Seeding

Background: Tissue engineering principles could improve the incorporation of acellular dermal matrix (ADM). The aim of this study is to verify if ADM is a suitable three-dimensional matrix for gingival fibroblasts and cancerous cells ingrowth, and also if cultured medium conditioned in ADM affect cellular behavior. Methods: Canine gingival fibroblasts (CGF), human gingival fibroblasts (HGF), and murine melanoma cell line (B16F10) were seeded on ADM for up to 14 days. The following parameters were assessed: morphology and distribution of CGF, HGF, and B16F10; CGF and HGF viability; and the effect of ADM conditioned medium (CM) on CGF viability. Results: Epifluorescence revealed that CGF were unevenly distributed on the ADM surface, showing no increase in cell number over the periods of study; HGF formed a monolayer on the ADM surface in a higher number at 14 days (P<0.05); B16F10 exhibited an increase in cell number within 7 days (P<0.05), and were mainly arranged in cell aggregates on the ADM, forming a continuous layer at 14 days. A higher percentage of cells on the ADM surface (P<0.05) compared to inside was observed for all cell types. 3-[4,5-dimethylthiazol-2-yl]-2,5-diphenyl tetrazolium bromide (MU) values indicated higher cell viability in samples cultured with HGF compared to CGF (P=0.024). A significantly lower cell viability for CGF grown in CM compared to cells grown in non-CM was observed at 48 and 72 hours (P<0.05). Conclusions: ADM is not suitable as a three-dimensional matrix for gingival fibroblasts ingrowth. Gingival fibroblasts and highly proliferative cells as B16F10 can only be superficially located on ADM, and CGF are negatively affected by culture medium conditioned in ADM, reducing its viability. J Periodontol 2011;82:293-301.

Tissue damage after sodium hypochlorite extrusion during root canal treatment

Sodium hypochlorite solution is toxic to vital tissues, causing severe effects if extruded during endodontic treatment. This paper presents a report on the tissue damage related to inadvertent extrusion of concentrated sodium hypochlorite solution during root canal treatment. A 65-year-old woman was referred with moderate pain, ecchymosis, and severe swelling of the right side of the face. These symptoms appeared immediately after a root canal treatment of the maxillary right canine, which had been started 21 hours earlier. It was diagnosed as air emphysema related to sodium hypochlorite solution extravasation during the endodontic treatment. To avoid this, an initial radiograph should be taken to determine the correct canal working length and confirm root canal integrity. (Oral Surg Oral Med Oral Pathol Oral Radiol Endod 2009; 108: e46-e49)

Sensory acceptability of raw and extruded bovine rumen protein in processed meat products

The use of bovine rumen protein (raw and extruded) as a replacement for extruded soy protein concentrate in three meat products (pork sausage, chicken hamburger, and kibbe) was investigated. Similarity between rumen and soy protein meat products was assessed using triangle tests and sensory acceptability evaluated by consumer panelists using a nine-point hedonic scale. The addition of raw rumen protein was detected in all meat product types tested, while extruded rumen protein was only detected in kibbe. The addition of raw rumen protein decreased the acceptability of pork sausage aroma and flavor, but improved kibbe appearance, texture and overall acceptability. The addition of extruded rumen protein reduced the acceptability of chicken hamburger texture, but improved pork sausage flavor. Replacement of soy protein by bovine rumen protein is feasible based upon sensory results, but depended upon its form and the type of meat product to which it was added. (C) 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Liquid-liquid equilibria for systems composed of refined soybean oil, free fatty acids, ethanol, and water at different temperatures

Soybean oil can be deacidified by liquid-liquid extraction with ethanol. In the present paper, the liquid-liquid equilibria of systems composed of refined soybean oil, commercial linoleic acid, ethanol and water were investigated at 298.2 K. The experimental data set obtained from the present study (at 298.2 K) and the results of Mohsen-Nia et al. [1] (at 303.2 K) and Rodrigues et al. [2] (at 323.2 K) were correlated by applying the non-random two liquid (NRTL) model. The results of the present study indicated that the mutual solubility of the compounds decreased with an increase in the water content of the solvent and a decrease in the temperature of the solution. Among variables, the water content of the solvent had the strongest effect on the solubility of the components. The maximum deviation and average variance between the experimental and calculated compositions were 1.60% and 0.89%, indicating that the model could accurately predict the behavior of the compounds at different temperatures and degrees of hydration. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Circulating renin-angiotensin system and catecholamines in childhood: is there a role for birthweight?

There have been only a few reports on the sympathoadrenal and renin-angiotensin systems in children of small gestational age. The purpose of the present study was to investigate plasma levels of ACE (angiotensin-converting enzyme) activity, angiotensin and catecholamines in 8- to 13-year-old children and to determine whether there are correlations between the components of these systems with both birthweight and BP (blood pressure) levels. This clinical study included 66 children (35 boys and 31 girls) in two groups: those born at term with an appropriate birthweight [AGA (appropriate-for-gestational age) group, n = 31] and those born at term but with a small birthweight for gestational age [SGA (small-for-gestational age) group, n = 35]. Concentrations of angiotensin, catecholamines and ACE activity were determined in plasma. Circulating noradrenaline levels were significantly elevated in SGA girls compared with AGA girls (P = 0.036). In addition, angiotensin 11 and ACE activity were higher in SGA boys (P = 0.024 and P = 0.050 respectively). There was a significant association of the circulating levels of both angiotensin 11 and ACE activity with BP levels in our study population. Although the underlying mechanisms that link restricted fetal growth with later cardiovascular events are not fully understood, the findings in the present study support the link between low birthweight and overactivity of both sympathoadrenal and renin-angiotensin systems into later childhood.