Dynamic response of structures with uncertain parameters

This thesis presents a technique for obtaining the response of linear structural systems with parameter uncertainties subjected to either deterministic or random excitation. The parameter uncertainties are modeled as random variables or random fields, and are assumed to be time-independent. The new method is an extension of the deterministic finite element method to the space of random functions.

First, the general formulation of the method is developed, in the case where the excitation is deterministic in time. Next, the application of this formulation to systems satisfying the one-dimensional wave equation with uncertainty in their physical properties is described. A particular physical conceptualization of this equation is chosen for study, and some engineering applications are discussed in both an earthquake ground motion and a structural context.

Finally, the formulation of the new method is extended to include cases where the excitation is random in time. Application of this formulation to the random response of a primary-secondary system is described. It is found that parameter uncertainties can have a strong effect on the system response characteristics.

Optimal Investment in Energy Efficiency under Uncertainty

41 p.

Future of earthquake early warning : quantifying uncertainty and making fast automated decisions for applications

Earthquake early warning (EEW) systems have been rapidly developing over the past decade. Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) has an EEW system that was operating during the 2011 M9 Tohoku earthquake in Japan, and this increased the awareness of EEW systems around the world. While longer-time earthquake prediction still faces many challenges to be practical, the availability of shorter-time EEW opens up a new door for earthquake loss mitigation. After an earthquake fault begins rupturing, an EEW system utilizes the first few seconds of recorded seismic waveform data to quickly predict the hypocenter location, magnitude, origin time and the expected shaking intensity level around the region. This early warning information is broadcast to different sites before the strong shaking arrives. The warning lead time of such a system is short, typically a few seconds to a minute or so, and the information is uncertain. These factors limit human intervention to activate mitigation actions and this must be addressed for engineering applications of EEW. This study applies a Bayesian probabilistic approach along with machine learning techniques and decision theories from economics to improve different aspects of EEW operation, including extending it to engineering applications.

Existing EEW systems are often based on a deterministic approach. Often, they assume that only a single event occurs within a short period of time, which led to many false alarms after the Tohoku earthquake in Japan. This study develops a probability-based EEW algorithm based on an existing deterministic model to extend the EEW system to the case of concurrent events, which are often observed during the aftershock sequence after a large earthquake.

To overcome the challenge of uncertain information and short lead time of EEW, this study also develops an earthquake probability-based automated decision-making (ePAD) framework to make robust decision for EEW mitigation applications. A cost-benefit model that can capture the uncertainties in EEW information and the decision process is used. This approach is called the Performance-Based Earthquake Early Warning, which is based on the PEER Performance-Based Earthquake Engineering method. Use of surrogate models is suggested to improve computational efficiency. Also, new models are proposed to add the influence of lead time into the cost-benefit analysis. For example, a value of information model is used to quantify the potential value of delaying the activation of a mitigation action for a possible reduction of the uncertainty of EEW information in the next update. Two practical examples, evacuation alert and elevator control, are studied to illustrate the ePAD framework. Potential advanced EEW applications, such as the case of multiple-action decisions and the synergy of EEW and structural health monitoring systems, are also discussed.

Efficient methods for stochastic optimal control

The Hamilton Jacobi Bellman (HJB) equation is central to stochastic optimal control (SOC) theory, yielding the optimal solution to general problems specified by known dynamics and a specified cost functional. Given the assumption of quadratic cost on the control input, it is well known that the HJB reduces to a particular partial differential equation (PDE). While powerful, this reduction is not commonly used as the PDE is of second order, is nonlinear, and examples exist where the problem may not have a solution in a classical sense. Furthermore, each state of the system appears as another dimension of the PDE, giving rise to the curse of dimensionality. Since the number of degrees of freedom required to solve the optimal control problem grows exponentially with dimension, the problem becomes intractable for systems with all but modest dimension.

In the last decade researchers have found that under certain, fairly non-restrictive structural assumptions, the HJB may be transformed into a linear PDE, with an interesting analogue in the discretized domain of Markov Decision Processes (MDP). The work presented in this thesis uses the linearity of this particular form of the HJB PDE to push the computational boundaries of stochastic optimal control.

This is done by crafting together previously disjoint lines of research in computation. The first of these is the use of Sum of Squares (SOS) techniques for synthesis of control policies. A candidate polynomial with variable coefficients is proposed as the solution to the stochastic optimal control problem. An SOS relaxation is then taken to the partial differential constraints, leading to a hierarchy of semidefinite relaxations with improving sub-optimality gap. The resulting approximate solutions are shown to be guaranteed over- and under-approximations for the optimal value function. It is shown that these results extend to arbitrary parabolic and elliptic PDEs, yielding a novel method for Uncertainty Quantification (UQ) of systems governed by partial differential constraints. Domain decomposition techniques are also made available, allowing for such problems to be solved via parallelization and low-order polynomials.

The optimization-based SOS technique is then contrasted with the Separated Representation (SR) approach from the applied mathematics community. The technique allows for systems of equations to be solved through a low-rank decomposition that results in algorithms that scale linearly with dimensionality. Its application in stochastic optimal control allows for previously uncomputable problems to be solved quickly, scaling to such complex systems as the Quadcopter and VTOL aircraft. This technique may be combined with the SOS approach, yielding not only a numerical technique, but also an analytical one that allows for entirely new classes of systems to be studied and for stability properties to be guaranteed.

The analysis of the linear HJB is completed by the study of its implications in application. It is shown that the HJB and a popular technique in robotics, the use of navigation functions, sit on opposite ends of a spectrum of optimization problems, upon which tradeoffs may be made in problem complexity. Analytical solutions to the HJB in these settings are available in simplified domains, yielding guidance towards optimality for approximation schemes. Finally, the use of HJB equations in temporal multi-task planning problems is investigated. It is demonstrated that such problems are reducible to a sequence of SOC problems linked via boundary conditions. The linearity of the PDE allows us to pre-compute control policy primitives and then compose them, at essentially zero cost, to satisfy a complex temporal logic specification.

Sustainable IT and IT for sustainability

Energy and sustainability have become one of the most critical issues of our generation. While the abundant potential of renewable energy such as solar and wind provides a real opportunity for sustainability, their intermittency and uncertainty present a daunting operating challenge. This thesis aims to develop analytical models, deployable algorithms, and real systems to enable efficient integration of renewable energy into complex distributed systems with limited information.

The first thrust of the thesis is to make IT systems more sustainable by facilitating the integration of renewable energy into these systems. IT represents the fastest growing sectors in energy usage and greenhouse gas pollution. Over the last decade there are dramatic improvements in the energy efficiency of IT systems, but the efficiency improvements do not necessarily lead to reduction in energy consumption because more servers are demanded. Further, little effort has been put in making IT more sustainable, and most of the improvements are from improved "engineering" rather than improved "algorithms". In contrast, my work focuses on developing algorithms with rigorous theoretical analysis that improve the sustainability of IT. In particular, this thesis seeks to exploit the flexibilities of cloud workloads both (i) in time by scheduling delay-tolerant workloads and (ii) in space by routing requests to geographically diverse data centers. These opportunities allow data centers to adaptively respond to renewable availability, varying cooling efficiency, and fluctuating energy prices, while still meeting performance requirements. The design of the enabling algorithms is however very challenging because of limited information, non-smooth objective functions and the need for distributed control. Novel distributed algorithms are developed with theoretically provable guarantees to enable the "follow the renewables" routing. Moving from theory to practice, I helped HP design and implement industry's first Net-zero Energy Data Center.

The second thrust of this thesis is to use IT systems to improve the sustainability and efficiency of our energy infrastructure through data center demand response. The main challenges as we integrate more renewable sources to the existing power grid come from the fluctuation and unpredictability of renewable generation. Although energy storage and reserves can potentially solve the issues, they are very costly. One promising alternative is to make the cloud data centers demand responsive. The potential of such an approach is huge.

To realize this potential, we need adaptive and distributed control of cloud data centers and new electricity market designs for distributed electricity resources. My work is progressing in both directions. In particular, I have designed online algorithms with theoretically guaranteed performance for data center operators to deal with uncertainties under popular demand response programs. Based on local control rules of customers, I have further designed new pricing schemes for demand response to align the interests of customers, utility companies, and the society to improve social welfare.

Essays in optimal resource allocation under uncertainty with capacity constraints

This thesis brings together four papers on optimal resource allocation under uncertainty with capacity constraints. The first is an extension of the Arrow-Debreu contingent claim model to a good subject to supply uncertainty for which delivery capacity has to be chosen before the uncertainty is resolved. The second compares an ex-ante contingent claims market to a dynamic market in which capacity is chosen ex-ante and output and consumption decisions are made ex-post. The third extends the analysis to a storable good subject to random supply. Finally, the fourth examines optimal allocation of water under an appropriative rights system.

Existence of the transverse relaxation time in optically excited bulk semiconductors

Two basic types of depolarization mechanisms, carrier-carrier (CC) and carrier-phonon (CP) scattering, are investigated in optically excited bulk semiconductors (3D), in which the existence of the transverse relaxation time is proven based on the vector property of the interband transition matrix elements. The dephasing rates for both CC and CP scattering are determined to be equal to one half of the total scattering-rate-integrals weighted by the factors (1 - cos chi), where chi are the scattering angles. Analytical expressions of the polarization dephasing due to CC scattering are established by using an uncertainty broadening approach, and analytical ones due to both the polar optical-phonon and non-polar deformation potential scattering (including inter-valley scattering) are also presented by using the sharp spectral functions in the dephasing rate calculations. These formulas, which reveal the trivial role of the Coulomb screening effect in the depolarization processes, are used to explain the experimental results at hand and provide a clear physical picture that is difficult to extract from numerical treatments.

Observations on the behaviour of Polyphemus pediculus and functions of its extremities in the process of feeding. [Translation of: Materialy po biologii i gidrologii Volzhskikh vodokhranilishch, pp. 13-16. Moscow, 1965]

The author summarises observations on the behaviour of Polyphemus pediculus and functions of its extremities in the process of feeding. The crustacean Polyphemus pediculus seizes its prey, kills it and pulverises its food with the help of its extremities. Therefore for a study of its feeding method was necessary not only to have been acquainted in detail with the structure of its extremities, but also to have observed their interaction for the accomplishment of the stated functions.

Information processing and higher psychological functions in the disconnected hemispheres of human commissurotomy patients

Several patients of P. J. Vogel who had undergone cerebral commissurotomy for the control of intractable epilepsy were tested on a variety of tasks to measure aspects of cerebral organization concerned with lateralization in hemispheric function. From tests involving identification of shapes it was inferred that in the absence of the neocortical commissures, the left hemisphere still has access to certain types of information from the ipsilateral field. The major hemisphere can still make crude differentiations between various left-field stimuli, but is unable to specify exact stimulus properties. Most of the time the major hemisphere, having access to some ipsilateral stimuli, dominated the minor hemisphere in control of the body.

Competition for control of the body between the hemispheres is seen most clearly in tests of minor hemisphere language competency, in which it was determined that though the minor hemisphere does possess some minimal ability to express language, the major hemisphere prevented its expression much of the time. The right hemisphere was superior to the left in tests of perceptual visualization, and the two hemispheres appeared to use different strategies in attempting to solve the problems, namely, analysis for the left hemisphere and synthesis for the right hemisphere.

Analysis of the patients' verbal and performance I.Q.'s, as well as observations made throughout testing, suggest that the corpus callosum plays a critical role in activities that involve functions in which the minor hemisphere normally excels, that the motor expression of these functions may normally come through the major hemisphere by way of the corpus callosum.

Lateral specialization is thought to be an evolutionary adaptation which overcame problems of a functional antagonism between the abilities normally associated with the two hemispheres. The tests of perception suggested that this function lateralized into the mute hemisphere because of an active counteraction by language. This latter idea was confirmed by the finding that left-handers, in whom there is likely to be bilateral language centers, are greatly deficient on tests of perception.

Extension theorems for functions of vanishing mean oscillation

A locally integrable function is said to be of vanishing mean oscillation (VMO) if its mean oscillation over cubes in R^d converges to zero with the volume of the cubes. We establish necessary and sufficient conditions for a locally integrable function defined on a bounded measurable set of positive measure to be the restriction to that set of a VMO function.

We consider the similar extension problem pertaining to BMO(ρ) functions; that is, those VMO functions whose mean oscillation over any cube is O(ρ(l(Q))) where l(Q) is the length of Q and ρ is a positive, non-decreasing function with ρ(0⁺) = 0.

We apply these results to obtain sufficient conditions for a Blaschke sequence to be the zeros of an analytic BMO(ρ) function on the unit disc.

A generalized Hausdorff dimension for functions and sets

Let E be a compact subset of the n-dimensional unit cube, 1_n, and let C be a collection of convex bodies, all of positive n-dimensional Lebesgue measure, such that C contains bodies with arbitrarily small measure. The dimension of E with respect to the covering class C is defined to be the number

d_C(E) = sup(β:H_{β, C}(E) > 0),

where H_{β, C} is the outer measure

inf(Ʃm(C_i)^β:UC_i Ↄ E, C_i ϵ C) .

Only the one and two-dimensional cases are studied. Moreover, the covering classes considered are those consisting of intervals and rectangles, parallel to the coordinate axes, and those closed under translations. A covering class is identified with a set of points in the left-open portion, 1’_n, of 1_n, whose closure intersects 1_n - 1’_n. For n = 2, the outer measure H_{β, C} is adopted in place of the usual:

Inf(Ʃ(diam. (C_i))^β: UC_i Ↄ E, C_i ϵ C),

for the purpose of studying the influence of the shape of the covering sets on the dimension d_C(E).

If E is a closed set in 1₁, let M(E) be the class of all non-decreasing functions μ(x), supported on E with μ(x) = 0, x ≤ 0 and μ(x) = 1, x ≥ 1. Define for each μ ϵ M(E),

d_C(μ) = lim/c → inf/0 log ∆μ(c)/log c , (c ϵ C)

where ∆μ(c) = v/x (μ(x+c) – μ(x)). It is shown that

d_C(E) = sup (d_C(μ):μ ϵ M(E)).

This notion of dimension is extended to a certain class Ӻ of sub-additive functions, and the problem of studying the behavior of d_C(E) as a function of the covering class C is reduced to the study of d_C(f) where f ϵ Ӻ. Specifically, the set of points in 1₁,

(*) {d_B(F), d_C(f)): f ϵ Ӻ}

is characterized by a comparison of the relative positions of the points of B and C. A region of the form (*) is always closed and doubly-starred with respect to the points (0, 0) and (1, 1). Conversely, given any closed region in 1₂, doubly-starred with respect to (0, 0) and (1, 1), there are covering classes B and C such that (*) is exactly that region. All of the results are shown to apply to the dimension of closed sets E. Similar results can be obtained when a finite number of covering classes are considered.

In two dimensions, the notion of dimension is extended to the class M, of functions f(x, y), non-decreasing in x and y, supported on 1₂ with f(x, y) = 0 for x · y = 0 and f(1, 1) = 1, by the formula

d_C(f) = lim/s · t → inf/0 log ∆f(s, t)/log s · t , (s, t) ϵ C

where

∆f(s, t) = V/x, y (f(x+s, y+t) – f(x+s, y) – f(x, y+t) + f(x, t)).

A characterization of the equivalence d_C1(f) = d_C2(f) for all f ϵ M, is given by comparison of the gaps in the sets of products s · t and quotients s/t, (s, t) ϵ C_i (I = 1, 2).