Biogeochemical response of Tagus Estuary to climate change : a modelling study

Estuaries are highly dynamic systems which may be modified in a climate change context. These changes can affect the biogeochemical cycles. Among the major impacts of climate change, the increasing rainfall events and sea level rise can be considered. This study aims to research the impact of those events in biogeochemical dynamics in the Tagus Estuary, which is the largest and most important estuary along the Portuguese coast. In this context a 2D biophysical model (MOHID) was implemented, validated and explored, through comparison with in-situ data. In order to study the impact of extreme rainfall events, which can be characterized by an high increase in freshwater inflow, three scenarios were set by changing the inputs from the main tributaries, Tagus and Sorraia Rivers. A realistic scenario considering one day of Tagus and Sorraia River extreme discharge, a scenario considering one day of single extreme discharge of the Tagus River and finally one considering the extreme runoff just from Sorraia River. For the mean sea level rise, two scenarios were also established. The first with the actual mean sea level value and the second considering an increase of 0.42 m. For the extreme rainfall events simulations, the results suggest that the biogeochemical characteristics of the Tagus Estuary are mainly influenced by Tagus River discharge. For sea level rise scenario, the results suggest a dilution in nutrient concentrations and an increase in Chl-a in specific areas.For both scenarios, the suggested increase in Chl-a concentration for specific estuarine areas, under the tested scenarios, can lead to events that promote an abnormal growth of phytoplankton (blooms) causing the water quality to drop and the estuary to face severe quality issues risking all the activities that depend on it.

Energy systems analysis of transboundary river basins in a nexus approach: the Sava river basin study case

Resource management policies are frequently designed and planned to target specific needs of particular sectors, without taking into account the interests of other sectors who share the same resources. In a climate of resource depletion, population growth, increase in energy demand and climate change awareness, it is of great importance to promote the assessment of intersectoral linkages and, by doing so, understand their effects and implications. This need is further augmented when common use of resources might not be solely relevant at national level, but also when the distribution of resources ranges over different nations. This dissertation focuses on the study of the energy systems of five south eastern European countries, which share the Sava River Basin, using a water-food(agriculture)-energy nexus approach. In the case of the electricity generation sector, the use of water is essential for the integrity of the energy systems, as the electricity production in the riparian countries relies on two major technologies dependent on water resources: hydro and thermal power plants. For example, in 2012, an average of 37% of the electricity production in the SRB countries was generated by hydropower and 61% in thermal power plants. Focusing on the SRB, in terms of existing installed capacities, the basin accommodates close to a tenth of all hydropower capacity while providing water for cooling to 42% of the net capacity of thermal power currently in operation in the basin. This energy-oriented nexus study explores the dependency on the basin’s water resources of the energy systems in the region for the period between 2015 and 2030. To do so, a multi-country electricity model was developed to provide a quantification ground to the analysis, using the open-source software modelling tool OSeMOSYS. Three main areas are subject to analysis: first, the impact of energy efficiency and renewable energy strategies in the electricity generation mix; secondly, the potential impacts of climate change under a moderate climate change projection scenario; and finally, deriving from the latter point, the cumulative impact of an increase in water demand in the agriculture sector, for irrigation. Additionally, electricity trade dynamics are compared across the different scenarios under scrutiny, as an effort to investigate the implications of the aforementioned factors in the electricity markets in the region.

DIRECT NUMERICAL SIMULATION OF INCOMPRESSIBLE MULTIPHASE FLOW WITH PHASE CHANGE

Phase change problems arise in many practical applications such as air-conditioning and refrigeration, thermal energy storage systems and thermal management of electronic devices. The physical phenomenon in such applications are complex and are often difficult to be studied in detail with the help of only experimental techniques. The efforts to improve computational techniques for analyzing two-phase flow problems with phase change are therefore gaining momentum. The development of numerical methods for multiphase flow has been motivated generally by the need to account more accurately for (a) large topological changes such as phase breakup and merging, (b) sharp representation of the interface and its discontinuous properties and (c) accurate and mass conserving motion of the interface. In addition to these considerations, numerical simulation of multiphase flow with phase change introduces additional challenges related to discontinuities in the velocity and the temperature fields. Moreover, the velocity field is no longer divergence free. For phase change problems, the focus of developmental efforts has thus been on numerically attaining a proper conservation of energy across the interface in addition to the accurate treatment of fluxes of mass and momentum conservation as well as the associated interface advection. Among the initial efforts related to the simulation of bubble growth in film boiling applications the work in \cite{Welch1995} was based on the interface tracking method using a moving unstructured mesh. That study considered moderate interfacial deformations. A similar problem was subsequently studied using moving, boundary fitted grids \cite{Son1997}, again for regimes of relatively small topological changes. A hybrid interface tracking method with a moving interface grid overlapping a static Eulerian grid was developed \cite{Juric1998} for the computation of a range of phase change problems including, three-dimensional film boiling \cite{esmaeeli2004computations}, multimode two-dimensional pool boiling \cite{Esmaeeli2004} and film boiling on horizontal cylinders \cite{Esmaeeli2004a}. The handling of interface merging and pinch off however remains a challenge with methods that explicitly track the interface. As large topological changes are crucial for phase change problems, attention has turned in recent years to front capturing methods utilizing implicit interfaces that are more effective in treating complex interface deformations. The VOF (Volume of Fluid) method was adopted in \cite{Welch2000} to simulate the one-dimensional Stefan problem and the two-dimensional film boiling problem. The approach employed a specific model for mass transfer across the interface involving a mass source term within cells containing the interface. This VOF based approach was further coupled with the level set method in \cite{Son1998}, employing a smeared-out Heaviside function to avoid the numerical instability related to the source term. The coupled level set, volume of fluid method and the diffused interface approach was used for film boiling with water and R134a at the near critical pressure condition \cite{Tomar2005}. The effect of superheat and saturation pressure on the frequency of bubble formation were analyzed with this approach. The work in \cite{Gibou2007} used the ghost fluid and the level set methods for phase change simulations. A similar approach was adopted in \cite{Son2008} to study various boiling problems including three-dimensional film boiling on a horizontal cylinder, nucleate boiling in microcavity \cite{lee2010numerical} and flow boiling in a finned microchannel \cite{lee2012direct}. The work in \cite{tanguy2007level} also used the ghost fluid method and proposed an improved algorithm based on enforcing continuity and divergence-free condition for the extended velocity field. The work in \cite{sato2013sharp} employed a multiphase model based on volume fraction with interface sharpening scheme and derived a phase change model based on local interface area and mass flux. Among the front capturing methods, sharp interface methods have been found to be particularly effective both for implementing sharp jumps and for resolving the interfacial velocity field. However, sharp velocity jumps render the solution susceptible to erroneous oscillations in pressure and also lead to spurious interface velocities. To implement phase change, the work in \cite{Hardt2008} employed point mass source terms derived from a physical basis for the evaporating mass flux. To avoid numerical instability, the authors smeared the mass source by solving a pseudo time-step diffusion equation. This measure however led to mass conservation issues due to non-symmetric integration over the distributed mass source region. The problem of spurious pressure oscillations related to point mass sources was also investigated by \cite{Schlottke2008}. Although their method is based on the VOF, the large pressure peaks associated with sharp mass source was observed to be similar to that for the interface tracking method. Such spurious fluctuation in pressure are essentially undesirable because the effect is globally transmitted in incompressible flow. Hence, the pressure field formation due to phase change need to be implemented with greater accuracy than is reported in current literature. The accuracy of interface advection in the presence of interfacial mass flux (mass flux conservation) has been discussed in \cite{tanguy2007level,tanguy2014benchmarks}. The authors found that the method of extending one phase velocity to entire domain suggested by Nguyen et al. in \cite{nguyen2001boundary} suffers from a lack of mass flux conservation when the density difference is high. To improve the solution, the authors impose a divergence-free condition for the extended velocity field by solving a constant coefficient Poisson equation. The approach has shown good results with enclosed bubble or droplet but is not general for more complex flow and requires additional solution of the linear system of equations. In current thesis, an improved approach that addresses both the numerical oscillation of pressure and the spurious interface velocity field is presented by featuring (i) continuous velocity and density fields within a thin interfacial region and (ii) temporal velocity correction steps to avoid unphysical pressure source term. Also I propose a general (iii) mass flux projection correction for improved mass flux conservation. The pressure and the temperature gradient jump condition are treated sharply. A series of one-dimensional and two-dimensional problems are solved to verify the performance of the new algorithm. Two-dimensional and cylindrical film boiling problems are also demonstrated and show good qualitative agreement with the experimental observations and heat transfer correlations. Finally, a study on Taylor bubble flow with heat transfer and phase change in a small vertical tube in axisymmetric coordinates is carried out using the new multiphase, phase change method.

Institutional Persistence and Change in England's Common Law: 1700-1865

Institutions are widely regarded as important, even ultimate drivers of economic growth and performance. A recent mainstream of institutional economics has concentrated on the effect of persisting, often imprecisely measured institutions and on cataclysmic events as agents of noteworthy institutional change. As a consequence, institutional change without large-scale shocks has received little attention. In this dissertation I apply a complementary, quantitative-descriptive approach that relies on measures of actually enforced institutions to study institutional persistence and change over a long time period that is undisturbed by the typically studied cataclysmic events. By placing institutional change into the center of attention one can recognize different speeds of institutional innovation and the continuous coexistence of institutional persistence and change. Specifically, I combine text mining procedures, network analysis techniques and statistical approaches to study persistence and change in England’s common law over the Industrial Revolution (1700-1865). Based on the doctrine of precedent - a peculiarity of common law systems - I construct and analyze the apparently first citation network that reflects lawmaking in England. Most strikingly, I find large-scale change in the making of English common law around the turn of the 19th century - a period free from the typically studied cataclysmic events. Within a few decades a legal innovation process with low depreciation rates (1 to 2 percent) and strong past-persistence transitioned to a present-focused innovation process with significantly higher depreciation rates (4 to 6 percent) and weak past-persistence. Comparison with U.S. Supreme Court data reveals a similar U.S. transition towards the end of the 19th century. The English and U.S. transitions appear to have unfolded in a very specific manner: a new body of law arose during the transitions and developed in a self-referential manner while the existing body of law lost influence, but remained prominent. Additional findings suggest that Parliament doubled its influence on the making of case law within the first decades after the Glorious Revolution and that England’s legal rules manifested a high degree of long-term persistence. The latter allows for the possibility that the often-noted persistence of institutional outcomes derives from the actual persistence of institutions.

Climate Change or Urbanization? Impacts on a Traditional Coffee Production System in East Africa over the Last 80 Years

Global environmental changes (GEC) such as climate change (CC) and climate variability have serious impacts in the tropics, particularly in Africa. These are compounded by changes in land use/land cover, which in turn are driven mainly by economic and population growth, and urbanization. These factors create a feedback loop, which affects ecosystems and particularly ecosystem services, for example plant-insect interactions, and by consequence agricultural productivity. We studied effects of GEC at a local level, using a traditional coffee production area in greater Nairobi, Kenya. We chose coffee, the most valuable agricultural commodity worldwide, as it generates income for 100 million people, mainly in the developing world. Using the coffee berry borer, the most serious biotic threat to global coffee production, we show how environmental changes and different production systems (shaded and sun-grown coffee) can affect the crop. We combined detailed entomological assessments with historic climate records (from 1929-2011), and spatial and demographic data, to assess GEC's impact on coffee at a local scale. Additionally, we tested the utility of an adaptation strategy that is simple and easy to implement. Our results show that while interactions between CC and migration/urbanization, with its resultant landscape modifications, create a feedback loop whereby agroecosystems such as coffee are adversely affected, bio-diverse shaded coffee proved far more resilient and productive than coffee grown in monoculture, and was significantly less harmed by its insect pest. Thus, a relatively simple strategy such as shading coffee can tremendously improve resilience of agro-ecosystems, providing small-scale farmers in Africa with an easily implemented tool to safeguard their livelihoods in a changing climate.

Use of closed systems in the Hospital Pharmacy

Objective: In the setting of the increasing use of closed systems for reconstitution and preparation of these drugs, we intend to analyze the correct use of these systems in the Hospital Pharmacy, with the objective to minimize the risks of exposure not only for those professionals directly involved, but also for all the staff in the unit, taking also into account efficiency criteria. Method: Since some systems protect against aerosol formation but not from vapours, we decided to review which cytostatics should be prepared using an awl with an air inlet valve, in order to implement a new working procedure. We reviewed the formulations available in our hospital, with the following criteria: method of administration, excipients, and potential hazard for the staff handling them. We measured the diameters of the vials. We selected drugs with Level 1 Risk and also those including alcohol-based excipients, which could generate vapours. Outcomes: Out of the 66 reviewed formulations, we concluded that 11 drugs should be reconstituted with this type of awl: busulfan, cabazitaxel, carmustine, cyclophosphamide, eribulin, etoposide, fotemustine, melphalan, paclitaxel, temsirolimus and thiotepa; these represented an 18% of the total volume of formulations. Conclusions: The selection of healthcare products must be done at the Hospital Pharmacy, because the use of a system with an air valve inlet only for those drugs selected led to an outcome of savings and a more efficient use of materials. In our experience, we confirmed that the use of the needle could only be avoided when the awl could adapt to the different formulations of cytostatics, and this is only possible when different types of awls are available. Besides, connections were only really closed when a single awl was used for each vial. The change in working methodology when handling these drugs, as a result of this study, will allow us to start different studies about environmental contamination as a future line of work.

Tying it Together: Education-Focused Community Change Initiatives

Policymakers make many demands of our schools to produce academic success. At the same time, community organizations, government agencies, faith-based institutions, and other groups often are providing support to students and their families, especially those from high-poverty backgrounds, that are meant to impact education but are often insufficient, uncoordinated, or redundant. In many cases, these institutions lack access to schools and school leaders. What’s missing from the dominant education reform discourse is a coordinated education-focused approach that mobilizes community assets to effectively improve academic and developmental outcomes for students. This study explores how education-focused comprehensive community change initiatives (CCIs) that utilize a partnership approach are organized and sustained. In this study, I examine three research questions: 1. Why and how do school system-level community change initiative (CCI) partnerships form? 2. What are the organizational, financial, and political structures that support sustainable CCIs? What, in particular, are their connections to the school systems they seek to impact? 3. What are the leadership functions and structures found within CCIs? How are leadership functions distributed across schools and agencies within communities? To answer these questions, I used a cross-case study approach that employed a secondary data analysis of data that were collected as part of a larger research study sponsored by a national organization. The original study design included site visits and extended interviews with educators, community leaders and practitioners about community school initiatives, one type of CCI. This study demonstrates that characteristics of sustained education-focused CCIs include leaders that are critical to starting the CCIs and are willing to collaborate across institutions, a focus on community problems, building on previous efforts, strategies to improve service delivery, a focus on education and schools in particular, organizational arrangements that create shared leadership and ownership for the CCI, an intermediary to support the initial vision and collaborative leadership groups, diversified funding approaches, and political support. These findings add to the literature about the growing number of education-focused CCIs. The study’s primary recommendation—that institutions need to work across boundaries in order to sustain CCIs organizationally, financially, and politically—can help policymakers as they develop new collaborative approaches to achieving educational goals.

A Framework for Assessing the Reliability of Wind Energy Conversion Systems

During the last decade, wind power generation has seen rapid development. According to the U.S. Department of Energy, achieving 20\% wind power penetration in the U.S. by 2030 will require: (i) enhancement of the transmission infrastructure, (ii) improvement of reliability and operability of wind systems and (iii) increased U.S. manufacturing capacity of wind generation equipment. This research will concentrate on improvement of reliability and operability of wind energy conversion systems (WECSs). The increased penetration of wind energy into the grid imposes new operating conditions on power systems. This change requires development of an adequate reliability framework. This thesis proposes a framework for assessing WECS reliability in the face of external disturbances, e.g., grid faults and internal component faults. The framework is illustrated using a detailed model of type C WECS - doubly fed induction generator with corresponding deterministic and random variables in a simplified grid model. Fault parameters and performance requirements essential to reliability measurements are included in the simulation. The proposed framework allows a quantitative analysis of WECS designs; analysis of WECS control schemes, e.g., fault ride-through mechanisms; discovery of key parameters that influence overall WECS reliability; and computation of WECS reliability with respect to different grid codes/performance requirements.

THE INTERPLAY PERFORMANCE PRACTICE: PLAY AND SOCIAL CHANGE IN LATE CAPITALISM

Practitioners of the performance form “InterPlay” utilize dance, storytelling and song to build community and generate social change. I elucidate how this community of practitioners conceptualizes “social change.” I argue that the InterPlay social movement organizes around the application of play to performances of self in everyday life. I explore how the InterPlay non-profit corporation, Body Wisdom Inc., employs this technique to address racial justice in its organizational practices. I also examine how practitioners understand their use of this performance play in places of work, concluding that—even in these endeavors—they see social change as a process immanent to both individual people and the systems they create, not as the intervention of an autonomous external power. Ultimately, I argue that, within late capitalism, play should no longer be conceptualized as an activity separate from everyday sociality but as an immanent process of change constitutive of a socioaesthetic domain.

Use of business analysis in beef businesses to direct management practice change for climate adaptation outcomes

Beef businesses in northern Australia are facing increased pressure to be productive and profitable with challenges such as climate variability and poor financial performance over the past decade. Declining terms of trade, limited recent gains in on-farm productivity, low profit margins under current management systems and current climatic conditions will leave little capacity for businesses to absorb climate change-induced losses. In order to generate a whole-of-business focus towards management change, the Climate Clever Beef project in the Maranoa-Balonne region of Queensland trialled the use of business analysis with beef producers to improve financial literacy, provide a greater understanding of current business performance and initiate changes to current management practices. Demonstration properties were engaged and a systematic approach was used to assess current business performance, evaluate impacts of management changes on the business and to trial practices and promote successful outcomes to the wider industry. Focus was concentrated on improving financial literacy skills, understanding the business’ key performance indicators and modifying practices to improve both business productivity and profitability. To best achieve the desired outcomes, several extension models were employed: the ‘group facilitation/empowerment model’, the ‘individual consultant/mentor model’ and the ‘technology development model’. Providing producers with a whole-of-business approach and using business analysis in conjunction with on-farm trials and various extension methods proved to be a successful way to encourage producers in the region to adopt new practices into their business, in the areas of greatest impact. The areas targeted for development within businesses generally led to improvements in animal performance and grazing land management further improving the prospects for climate resilience.

An evaluation of carbon offset supplementation options for beef production systems on coastal speargrass in central Queensland, Australia

In 2014, the Australian Government implemented the Emissions Reduction Fund to offer incentives for businesses to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by following approved methods. Beef cattle businesses in northern Australia can participate by applying the 'reducing GHG emissions by feeding nitrates to beef cattle' methodology and the 'beef cattle herd management' methods. The nitrate (NO3) method requires that each baseline area must demonstrate a history of urea use. Projects earn Australian carbon credit units (ACCU) for reducing enteric methane emissions by substituting NO3 for urea at the same amount of fed nitrogen. NO3 must be fed in the form of a lick block because most operations do not have labour or equipment to manage daily supplementation. NO3 concentrations, after a 2-week adaptation period, must not exceed 50 g NO3/adult animal equivalent per day or 7 g NO3/kg dry matter intake per day to reduce the risk of NO3 toxicity. There is also a 'beef cattle herd management' method, approved in 2015, that covers activities that improve the herd emission intensity (emissions per unit of product sold) through change in the diet or management. The present study was conducted to compare the required ACCU or supplement prices for a 2% return on capital when feeding a low or high supplement concentration to breeding stock of either (1) urea, (2) three different forms of NO3 or (3) cottonseed meal (CSM), at N concentrations equivalent to 25 or 50 g urea/animal equivalent, to fasten steer entry to a feedlot (backgrounding), in a typical breeder herd on the coastal speargrass land types in central Queensland. Monte Carlo simulations were run using the software @risk, with probability functions used for (1) urea, NO3 and CSM prices, (2) GHG mitigation, (3) livestock prices and (4) carbon price. Increasing the weight of steers at a set turnoff month by feeding CSM was found to be the most cost-effective option, with or without including the offset income. The required ACCU prices for a 2% return on capital were an order of magnitude higher than were indicative carbon prices in 2015 for the three forms of NO3. The likely costs of participating in ERF projects would reduce the return on capital for all mitigation options. © CSIRO 2016.

Objectives for management of socio-ecological systems in the Great Barrier Reef region, Australia

A wide range of goals and objectives have to be taken into account in natural resources management. Defining these objectives in operational terms, including dimensions such as sustainability, productivity, and equity, is by no means easy, especially if they must capture the diversity of community and stakeholder values. This is especially true in the coastal zone where land activities affect regional marine ecosystems. In this study, the aim was firstly to identify and hierarchically organise the goals and objectives for coastal systems, as defined by local stakeholders. Two case study areas are used within the Great Barrier Reef region being Mackay and Bowen–Burdekin. Secondly, the aim was to identify similarities between the case study results and thus develop a generic set of goals to be used as a starting point in other coastal communities. Results show that overarching high-level goals have nested sub-goals that contain a set of more detailed regional objectives. The similarities in high-level environmental, governance, and socio-economic goals suggest that regionally specific objectives can be developed based on a generic set of goals. The prominence of governance objectives reflects local stakeholder perceptions that current coastal zone management is not achieving the outcomes they feel important and that there is a need for increased community engagement and co-management. More importantly, it raises the question of how to make issues relevant for the local community and entice participation in the local management of public resources to achieve sustainable environmental, social, and economic management outcomes. © 2015 Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg

Bioeconomic modelling of woody regrowth carbon offset options in productive grazing systems

Agricultural land has been identified as a potential source of greenhouse gas emissions offsets through biosequestration in vegetation and soil. In the extensive grazing land of Australia, landholders may participate in the Australian Government’s Emissions Reduction Fund and create offsets by reducing woody vegetation clearing and allowing native woody plant regrowth to grow. This study used bioeconomic modelling to evaluate the trade-offs between an existing central Queensland grazing operation, which has been using repeated tree clearing to maintain pasture growth, and an alternative carbon and grazing enterprise in which tree clearing is reduced and the additional carbon sequestered in trees is sold. The results showed that ceasing clearing in favour of producing offsets produces a higher net present value over 20 years than the existing cattle enterprise at carbon prices, which are close to current (2015) market levels (~$13 t–1 CO2-e). However, by modifying key variables, relative profitability did change. Sensitivity analysis evaluated key variables, which determine the relative profitability of carbon and cattle. In order of importance these were: the carbon price, the gross margin of cattle production, the severity of the tree–grass relationship, the area of regrowth retained, the age of regrowth at the start of the project, and to a lesser extent the cost of carbon project administration, compliance and monitoring. Based on the analysis, retaining regrowth to generate carbon income may be worthwhile for cattle producers in Australia, but careful consideration needs to be given to the opportunity cost of reduced cattle income.

A manual for improving fish production in Northern Zambia through integrated farming systems

This manual was written as part of the Integrated Research in Development for Improved Livelihoods Programme in Northern Province, Zambia (IRDLP) and is primarily intended for extension agents to use with smallholder farmers engaged in semi-intensive fish farming in Northern Zambia. The IRDLP is an Irish Aid-funded project implemented by WorldFish, Harvest Plus and the Center for International Forestry Research (CIFOR). The goal of the IRDLP is to help improve the livelihoods, health status, and food and nutrition security of resource-poor households in the Mbala and Luwingu districts in Northern Zambia, especially women and vulnerable groups. This is achieved through generating and providing evidence-based information, scientific technologies and livelihood solutions to trigger community and farmer innovations for positive change. This manual provides information on how smallholder fish farmers can improve fish production in Northern Zambia, particularly in the Luwingu and Mbala districts, through integrated farming practices.

Carbon losses in terrestrial hydrological pathways in sugarcane cropping systems of Australia

Climate change and carbon (C) sequestration are a major focus of research in the twenty-first century. Globally, soils store about 300 times the amount of C that is released per annum through the burning of fossil fuels (Schulze and Freibauer 2005). Land clearing and introduction of agricultural systems have led to rapid declines in soil C reserves. The recent introduction of conservation agricultural practices has not led to a reversing of the decline in soil C content, although it has minimized the rate of decline (Baker et al. 2007; Hulugalle and Scott 2008). Lal (2003) estimated the quantum of C pools in the atmosphere, terrestrial ecosystems, and oceans and reported a “missing C” component in the world C budget. Though not proven yet, this could be linked to C losses through runoff and soil erosion (Lal 2005) and a lack of C accounting in inland water bodies (Cole et al. 2007). Land management practices to minimize the microbial respiration and soil organic C (SOC) decline such as minimum tillage or no tillage were extensively studied in the past, and the soil erosion and runoff studies monitoring those management systems focused on other nutrients such as nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P).