Short-term Load Forecasting Using Neural Network For Future Smart Grid Application

Short-term load forecasting of power system has been a classic problem for a long time. Not merely it has been researched extensively and intensively, but also a variety of forecasting methods has been raised. This thesis outlines some aspects and functions of smart meter. It also presents different policies and current statuses as well as future projects and objectives of SG development in several countries. Then the thesis compares main aspects about latest products of smart meter from different companies. Lastly, three types of prediction models are established in MATLAB to emulate the functions of smart grid in the short-term load forecasting, and then their results are compared and analyzed in terms of accuracy. For this thesis, more variables such as dew point temperature are used in the Neural Network model to achieve more accuracy for better short-term load forecasting results.

Avoiding Extinction: An Evaluation of Short-Term Recovery Recommendations for the Endangered Rio Grande Silvery Minnow

The endangered Rio Grande silvery minnow (Hybognathus amarus; RGSM) is nearing extinction and requires immediate recovery actions. In a draft report to the Middle Rio Grande Program, a Program Advisory Panel (PAP) recommended 34 short-term recovery measures to be implemented within the next five years, and 21 long-term recovery actions. However, these recommendations need further analysis to determine if and how the actions could be implemented. This project evaluated short-term recommendations provided by the PAP to identify the most effective and rank the relative importance of the actions. These recommendations were divided into 7 recovery categories: population augmentation (5 recommendations); hydrologic regimen (4 recommendations); physical habitat (3 recommendations); biological component of habitat (2 recommendations); population monitoring (6 recommendations); monitoring, analysis, and modeling (12 recommendations); and information and planning (2 recommendations). Each recommendation was evaluated for its potential to produce anticipated recovery progress for the RGSM based on assessments of the degree of feasibility, cost effectiveness, and associated potential consequences if fully implemented. In addition, other alternatives in a range of options were also considered where applicable. In each case, recommendations were evaluated from on-site visits, interviews with researchers and resource managers, and literature review. Based on the research findings, three major groupings of the recovery categories were identified: natural aspects of recovery, program aspects of recovery, and emergency measures. At least one recovery category within each major grouping was considered important by the respondents, which indicates that each grouping is of high importance in relation to the situation at hand. However, actions within each grouping have varying priorities given constraints on available resources, time, and budget. An integrated approach that accounts for the complexity of the river system and the species itself was considered the best approach to avoid extinction while ensuring long-term sustainability. Results of these analyses were provided directly to the PAP for their review, and it is anticipated that project results could advance implementation of the most appropriate immediate recovery actions needed to prevent extinction of the RGSM.

Short-Term Effects of a Wildfire on the Endangered Dupont's Lark Chersophilus duponti in an Arid Shrub-Steppe of Central Spain

In Europe, Dupont’s Lark Chersophilus duponti is a threatened open-habitat bird. Prescribed burning has sometimes been proposed for its conservation, but without evidence of its effectiveness. To evaluate the short-term effects of a summer wildfire on this species, we performed several transect counts in the burnt and unburnt parts of a shrubsteppe in central Spain. The same transects were counted within a three-year interval prior to the fire and were repeated during the first two springs after the fire. We also measured the vegetation during the first two springs after the fire. In the burnt area, we observed a decrease of about 85–100% in Dupont’s Lark abundance, and about 7–15% in the control area. The disappearance of the scrub cover after fire and its slow regeneration, as well as the large increase in grass cover during the second year, may explain the decrease in this habitat-specialist bird species. Fire should be avoided in areas occupied by the Dupont’s Lark, as its negative effects in the short-term may cause local extinctions. However, prescribed burning may be used in neighboring areas to create new open habitats that may be subsequently colonized by this species.