The plausibility of long-wavelength stress correlation or stress magnitude as a mechanism for precursory seismicity: Results from two simple elastic models

Observations of accelerating seismic activity prior to large earthquakes in natural fault systems have raised hopes for intermediate-term eartquake forecasting. If this phenomena does exist, then what causes it to occur? Recent theoretical work suggests that the accelerating seismic release sequence is a symptom of increasing long-wavelength stress correlation in the fault region. A more traditional explanation, based on Reid's elastic rebound theory, argues that an accelerating sequence of seismic energy release could be a consequence of increasing stress in a fault system whose stress moment release is dominated by large events. Both of these theories are examined using two discrete models of seismicity: a Burridge-Knopoff block-slider model and an elastic continuum based model. Both models display an accelerating release of seismic energy prior to large simulated earthquakes. In both models there is a correlation between the rate of seismic energy release with the total root-mean-squared stress and the level of long-wavelength stress correlation. Furthermore, both models exhibit a systematic increase in the number of large events at high stress and high long-wavelength stress correlation levels. These results suggest that either explanation is plausible for the accelerating moment release in the models examined. A statistical model based on the Burridge-Knopoff block-slider is constructed which indicates that stress alone is sufficient to produce accelerating release of seismic energy with time prior to a large earthquake.

Adaptive multiscale principal components analysis for online monitoring of wastewater treatment

Fault detection and isolation (FDI) are important steps in the monitoring and supervision of industrial processes. Biological wastewater treatment (WWT) plants are difficult to model, and hence to monitor, because of the complexity of the biological reactions and because plant influent and disturbances are highly variable and/or unmeasured. Multivariate statistical models have been developed for a wide variety of situations over the past few decades, proving successful in many applications. In this paper we develop a new monitoring algorithm based on Principal Components Analysis (PCA). It can be seen equivalently as making Multiscale PCA (MSPCA) adaptive, or as a multiscale decomposition of adaptive PCA. Adaptive Multiscale PCA (AdMSPCA) exploits the changing multivariate relationships between variables at different time-scales. Adaptation of scale PCA models over time permits them to follow the evolution of the process, inputs or disturbances. Performance of AdMSPCA and adaptive PCA on a real WWT data set is compared and contrasted. The most significant difference observed was the ability of AdMSPCA to adapt to a much wider range of changes. This was mainly due to the flexibility afforded by allowing each scale model to adapt whenever it did not signal an abnormal event at that scale. Relative detection speeds were examined only summarily, but seemed to depend on the characteristics of the faults/disturbances. The results of the algorithms were similar for sudden changes, but AdMSPCA appeared more sensitive to slower changes.

Kinematics of oblique collision and ramping inferred from microstructures and strain in middle crustal rocks, central Southern Alps, New Zealand

The hanging wall of the Alpine Fault near Franz Josef Glacier has been exhumed during the past similar to2-3 m.y. providing a sample of the ductilely deformed middle crust of a modem obliquely convergent orogen. Presently exposed rocks of the Pacific Plate are inferred to have undergone several phases of ductile deformation as they moved westward above a mid-crustal detachment. Initially they were transpressed across the outboard part of the orogen, resulting in oblate fabrics with a down-dip stretch. Later, they encountered the Alpine Fault, experiencing an oblique-slip backshearing on vertical planes. This escalator-like deformation tilted and thinned the incoming crust onto that crustal-scale oblique ramp. This style of hanging wall deformation may affect only the most rapidly uplifting, central part of the Southern Alps because of the low flexural rigidity of the crust in that region and its displacement over a relatively sharp ramp-angle at depth. A 3D transpressive flow affected mylonites locally near the fault, but their shear direction remained parallel to plate motion, ruling out ductile 'extrusion' as an important process in this orogen. Outside the mylonite zone, late Cenozoic shortening is inferred to be modest (30-40%), as measured from deformation of younger biotite grains. Oblique collision is dominated by translation on the Alpine Fault, and rocks migrate rapidly through the deforming zone, preventing the accumulation of large finite strains. Transpression may play a minor role in oblique collision. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Stress correlation function evolution in lattice solid elasto-dynamic models of shear and fracture zones and earthquake prediction

It has been argued that power-law time-to-failure fits for cumulative Benioff strain and an evolution in size-frequency statistics in the lead-up to large earthquakes are evidence that the crust behaves as a Critical Point (CP) system. If so, intermediate-term earthquake prediction is possible. However, this hypothesis has not been proven. If the crust does behave as a CP system, stress correlation lengths should grow in the lead-up to large events through the action of small to moderate ruptures and drop sharply once a large event occurs. However this evolution in stress correlation lengths cannot be observed directly. Here we show, using the lattice solid model to describe discontinuous elasto-dynamic systems subjected to shear and compression, that it is for possible correlation lengths to exhibit CP-type evolution. In the case of a granular system subjected to shear, this evolution occurs in the lead-up to the largest event and is accompanied by an increasing rate of moderate-sized events and power-law acceleration of Benioff strain release. In the case of an intact sample system subjected to compression, the evolution occurs only after a mature fracture system has developed. The results support the existence of a physical mechanism for intermediate-term earthquake forecasting and suggest this mechanism is fault-system dependent. This offers an explanation of why accelerating Benioff strain release is not observed prior to all large earthquakes. The results prove the existence of an underlying evolution in discontinuous elasto-dynamic, systems which is capable of providing a basis for forecasting catastrophic failure and earthquakes.

Long-range automaton models of earthquakes: Power-law accelerations, correlation evolution, and mode-switching

We introduce a conceptual model for the in-plane physics of an earthquake fault. The model employs cellular automaton techniques to simulate tectonic loading, earthquake rupture, and strain redistribution. The impact of a hypothetical crustal elastodynamic Green's function is approximated by a long-range strain redistribution law with a r(-p) dependance. We investigate the influence of the effective elastodynamic interaction range upon the dynamical behaviour of the model by conducting experiments with different values of the exponent (p). The results indicate that this model has two distinct, stable modes of behaviour. The first mode produces a characteristic earthquake distribution with moderate to large events preceeded by an interval of time in which the rate of energy release accelerates. A correlation function analysis reveals that accelerating sequences are associated with a systematic, global evolution of strain energy correlations within the system. The second stable mode produces Gutenberg-Richter statistics, with near-linear energy release and no significant global correlation evolution. A model with effectively short-range interactions preferentially displays Gutenberg-Richter behaviour. However, models with long-range interactions appear to switch between the characteristic and GR modes. As the range of elastodynamic interactions is increased, characteristic behaviour begins to dominate GR behaviour. These models demonstrate that evolution of strain energy correlations may occur within systems with a fixed elastodynamic interaction range. Supposing that similar mode-switching dynamical behaviour occurs within earthquake faults then intermediate-term forecasting of large earthquakes may be feasible for some earthquakes but not for others, in alignment with certain empirical seismological observations. Further numerical investigation of dynamical models of this type may lead to advances in earthquake forecasting research and theoretical seismology.

Simulation of the micro-physics of rocks using LSMearth

The particle-based Lattice Solid Model (LSM) was developed to provide a basis to study the physics of rocks and the nonlinear dynamics of earthquakes (MORA and PLACE, 1994; PLACE and MORA, 1999). A new modular and flexible LSM approach has been developed that allows different microphysics to be easily included in or removed from the model. The approach provides a virtual laboratory where numerical experiments can easily be set up and all measurable quantities visualised. The proposed approach provides a means to simulate complex phenomena such as fracturing or localisation processes, and enables the effect of different micro-physics on macroscopic behaviour to be studied. The initial 2-D model is extended to allow three-dimensional simulations to be performed and particles of different sizes to be specified. Numerical bi-axial compression experiments under different confining pressure are used to calibrate the model. By tuning the different microscopic parameters (such as coefficient of friction, microscopic strength and distribution of grain sizes), the macroscopic strength of the material and can be adjusted to be in agreement with laboratory experiments, and the orientation of fractures is consistent with the theoretical value predicted based on Mohr-Coulomb diagram. Simulations indicate that 3-D numerical models have different macroscopic properties than in 2-D and, hence, the model must be recalibrated for 3-D simulations. These numerical experiments illustrate that the new approach is capable of simulating typical rock fracture behaviour. The new model provides a basis to investigate nucleation, rupture and slip pulse propagation in complex fault zones without the previous model limitations of a regular low-level surface geometry and being restricted to two-dimensions.

Reforming the law of medical negligence: Solutions in search of a problem

The Commonwealth Government's Principles Based Review of the Law of Negligence recently recommended reforms aimed at limiting liability and damages arising from personal injury and death, in response to the growing perception that the current system of compensating personal injury had become financially unsustainable. Recent increases in medical liability and damages have eroded the confidence of doctors and their professional bodies, with fears of unprecedented desertion from and reduced recruitment into high risk areas, and one of the primary foci of the review concerned medical negligence. The article analyses proposals to redefine the principles necessary for the finding of negligence, against the terms of reference of the review. The article assumes that for the foreseeable future, Australia will persist with tort-based compensation for personal injury rather than developing a no-fault scheme. If the suggested changes to the fundamental principles of negligence are unlikely to reduce medical liability, greater attention might be given to the processes which come into play after the finding of negligence, where reform is more likely to benefit both plaintiffs and defendants.

Ocupação urbana em áreas de preservação permanente : o caso do manguezal da área continental de Vitória/ES

This research aims to diagnose the environmental impacts caused by the growth of urban occupations over the mangrove in the continental area of Vitória. It is justified by the gradual degradation of mangroves in Vitória that has inestimable importance to the landscape, to the environment and to the economy. With the growth of urban population in Brazil and around the world, researches like this, about environmental management, are essential to allow cities to grow more sustainably and well planned. The thesis was initially based on the study of occupations of Permanent Preservation Areas in general, with the presentation of the basic concepts and reflections, and later on territorial analysis of some protected areas and their surroundings, and the study of the empirical object, a polygon that covers urban areas and mangroves on the continental part of Vitória. The study hopes to promote a reflection and a discussion about the importance of maintenance of protected natural areas inside the cities, generating knowledge about the importance of mangrove and diagnose how it has been urbanized, protected or degraded over the years

A Generic Library for GUI Reasoning and Testing

Graphical user interfaces (GUIs) make software easy to use by providing the user with visual controls. Therefore, correctness of GUI's code is essential to the correct execution of the overall software. Models can help in the evaluation of interactive applications by allowing designers to concentrate on its more important aspects. This paper presents a generic model for language-independent reverse engineering of graphical user interface based applications, and we explore the integration of model-based testing techniques in our approach, thus allowing us to perform fault detection. A prototype tool has been constructed, which is already capable of deriving and testing a user interface behavioral model of applications written in Java/Swing.

Lições de Direito e Processo Penal, 2012/2013

§ Parte I A: DIREITO PENAL: CAPÍTULO I – CONCEITO DE DIREITO PENAL, COM ESPECIAL RELEVO DA DIFERENCIAÇÃO ENTRE DIREITO PENAL CLÁSSICO, DIREITO PENAL ECONÓMICO E SOCIAL E DIREITO DAS CONTRA-ORDENAÇÕES; CAPÍTULO II – O PROBLEMA DOS FINS DAS PENAS; CAPÍTULO III – BREVE ABORDAGEM DA EVOLUÇÃO HISTÓRICA DO DIREITO PENAL; CAPÍTULO IV – TEORIA GERAL DA LEI CRIMINAL; CAPÍTULO V – TEORIA GERAL DA INFRACÇÃO CRIMINAL: A) ELEMENTOS; B) CONSTRUÇÕES; C) ANÁLISE: 1) ACÇÃO; 2) TIPICIDADE; 3) ILICITUDE; 4) CULPA; 5) PUNIBILIDADE; CAPÍTULO VI – FORMAS DO CRIME:A) TENTATIVA; B) AUTORIA E COMPARTICIPAÇÃO; C) CONCURSO DE CRIMES § Parte I BDIREITO PROCESSUAL PENAL; CAPÍTULO I – A DELIMITAÇÃO DO DIREITO PROCESSUAL PENAL; CAPÍTULO II – OS PRINCÍPIOS FUNDAMENTAIS DO PROCESSO PENAL; CAPÍTULO III - A LEI PROCESSUAL PENAL E A SUA APLICAÇÃO; Parte II: CAPÍTULO I- OS SUJEITOS DO PROCESSO; CAPÍTULO II - O OBJECTO DO PROCESSO; CAPÍTULO III - AS MEDIDAS DE COACÇÃO E DE GARANTIA PATRIMONIAL; CAPÍTULO IV - TRAMITAÇÃO PROCESSUAL PENAL. § § Part I: CRIMINAL LAW: CHAPTER I - CONCEPT OF CRIMINAL LAW, WITH SPECIAL RELIEF OF THE DIFFERENTIATION BETWEEN CLASSIC CRIMINAL LAW, ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL CRIMINAL LAW AND THE “AGAINST ORDINANCES” LAW ("LAW OFFENSES"); CHAPTER II - THE PROBLEM OF THE ENDS OF THE PENALTIES; CHAPTER III - BRIEF OVERVIEW OF THE EVOLUTION HISTORY OF CRIMINAL LAW; CHAPTER IV - GENERAL THEORY OF THE CRIMINAL LAW; CHAPTER V - GENERAL THEORY OF THE CRIMINAL INFRACTION: A) ELEMENTS; B) CONSTRUCTIONS; C) ANALYSIS: 1) ACTION; 2) VAGUENESS DOCTRINE; 3) ILLEGALITY; 4) GUILT (FAULT); 5) PUNISHMENT; CHAPTER VI - FORMS OF THE CRIME: A) ATTEMPT; B) AUTHORSHIP AND "CO-PARTICIPATION"; C) CUMULATION OF OFFENCES. § Part I - B: CRIMINAL PROCEDURAL LAW: CHAPTER I - THE DELIMITATION OF THE CRIMINAL PROCEDURAL LAW; CHAPTER II - THE BASIC PRINCIPLES OF THE CRIMINAL PROCEDURE; CHAPTER III - THE CRIMINAL PROCEDURE LAW AND ITS APPLICATION; Part II: CHAPTER I - THE FIGURES OF THE PROCESS; CHAPTER II - THE OBJECT OF THE PROCESS; CHAPTER III - THE MEASURES OF COERCION AND PATRIMONIAL GUARANTEE (WARRANTY); CHAPTER IV - CRIMINAL PROCEDURE.

Lições de Direito e Processo Penal, 2013/2014

§ Parte I A: DIREITO PENAL: CAPÍTULO I – CONCEITO DE DIREITO PENAL, COM ESPECIAL RELEVO DA DIFERENCIAÇÃO ENTRE DIREITO PENAL CLÁSSICO, DIREITO PENAL ECONÓMICO E SOCIAL E DIREITO DAS CONTRA-ORDENAÇÕES; CAPÍTULO II – O PROBLEMA DOS FINS DAS PENAS; CAPÍTULO III – BREVE ABORDAGEM DA EVOLUÇÃO HISTÓRICA DO DIREITO PENAL; CAPÍTULO IV – TEORIA GERAL DA LEI CRIMINAL; CAPÍTULO V – TEORIA GERAL DA INFRACÇÃO CRIMINAL: A) ELEMENTOS; B) CONSTRUÇÕES; C) ANÁLISE: 1) ACÇÃO; 2) TIPICIDADE; 3) ILICITUDE; 4) CULPA; 5) PUNIBILIDADE; CAPÍTULO VI – FORMAS DO CRIME: A) TENTATIVA; B) AUTORIA E COMPARTICIPAÇÃO; C) CONCURSO DE CRIMES § Parte I B: DIREITO PROCESSUAL PENAL; CAPÍTULO I – A DELIMITAÇÃO DO DIREITO PROCESSUAL PENAL; CAPÍTULO II – OS PRINCÍPIOS FUNDAMENTAIS DO PROCESSO PENAL; CAPÍTULO III - A LEI PROCESSUAL PENAL E A SUA APLICAÇÃO; Parte II: CAPÍTULO I - OS SUJEITOS DO PROCESSO; CAPÍTULO II - O OBJECTO DO PROCESSO; CAPÍTULO III - AS MEDIDAS DE COACÇÃO E DE GARANTIA PATRIMONIAL; CAPÍTULO IV - TRAMITAÇÃO PROCESSUAL PENAL. § § Part I: CRIMINAL LAW: CHAPTER I - CONCEPT OF CRIMINAL LAW, WITH SPECIAL RELIEF OF THE DIFFERENTIATION BETWEEN CLASSIC CRIMINAL LAW, ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL CRIMINAL LAW AND THE “AGAINST ORDINANCES” LAW ("LAW OFFENSES"); CHAPTER II - THE PROBLEM OF THE ENDS OF THE PENALTIES; CHAPTER III - BRIEF OVERVIEW OF THE EVOLUTION HISTORY OF CRIMINAL LAW; CHAPTER IV - GENERAL THEORY OF THE CRIMINAL LAW; CHAPTER V - GENERAL THEORY OF THE CRIMINAL INFRACTION: A) ELEMENTS; B) CONSTRUCTIONS; C) ANALYSIS: 1) ACTION; 2) VAGUENESS DOCTRINE; 3) ILLEGALITY; 4) GUILT (FAULT); 5) PUNISHMENT; CHAPTER VI - FORMS OF THE CRIME: A) ATTEMPT; B) AUTHORSHIP AND "CO-PARTICIPATION"; C) CUMULATION OF OFFENCES. § Part I - B: CRIMINAL PROCEDURAL LAW: CHAPTER I - THE DELIMITATION OF THE CRIMINAL PROCEDURAL LAW; CHAPTER II - THE BASIC PRINCIPLES OF THE CRIMINAL PROCEDURE; CHAPTER III - THE CRIMINAL PROCEDURE LAW AND ITS APPLICATION; Part II: CHAPTER I - THE FIGURES OF THE PROCESS; CHAPTER II - THE OBJECT OF THE PROCESS; CHAPTER III - THE MEASURES OF COERCION AND PATRIMONIAL GUARANTEE (WARRANTY); CHAPTER IV -CRIMINAL PROCEDURE.

Using different satellite imagery and classification techniques to assess the contribution of trees outside forests in the municipality of Maringá, Brazil

Forest cover of the Maringá municipality, located in northern Parana State, was mapped in this study. Mapping was carried out by using high-resolution HRC sensor imagery and medium resolution CCD sensor imagery from the CBERS satellite. Images were georeferenced and forest vegetation patches (TOFs - trees outside forests) were classified using two methods of digital classification: reflectance-based or the digital number of each pixel, and object-oriented. The areas of each polygon were calculated, which allowed each polygon to be segregated into size classes. Thematic maps were built from the resulting polygon size classes and summary statistics generated from each size class for each area. It was found that most forest fragments in Maringá were smaller than 500 m². There was also a difference of 58.44% in the amount of vegetation between the high-resolution imagery and medium resolution imagery due to the distinct spatial resolution of the sensors. It was concluded that high-resolution geotechnology is essential to provide reliable information on urban greens and forest cover under highly human-perturbed landscapes.

Algumas técnicas SIG úteis à obtenção de áreas de serviço de conjuntos de pontos

Em estudos de acessibilidade, e não só, são muito úteis um tipo de estruturas que se podem obter a partir de uma rede, eventualmente multi-modal e parametrizável: as chamadas “áreas de serviço”, as quais são constituídas por polígonos, cada qual correspondente a uma zona situada entre um certo intervalo de custo, relativamente a uma certa “feature” (ponto, multiponto, etc.). Pretende-se neste estudo obter, a partir de áreas de serviço relativas a um universo de features, áreas de serviço relativas a subconjuntos dessas features. Estas técnicas envolvem manipulações relativamente complexas de polígonos e podem ser generalizadas para conjuntos de conjuntos e assim sucessivamente. Convém notar que nem sempre se dispõe da rede, podendo dispor-se das referidas estruturas; eventualmente, no caso de áreas de serviço, sob a forma de imagens (raster) a serem convertidas para formato vectorial.

Impact of a 1755-like tsunami in Huelva, Spain

Coastal areas are highly exposed to natural hazards associated with the sea. In all cases where there is historical evidence for devastating tsunamis, as is the case of the southern coasts of the Iberian Peninsula, there is a need for quantitative hazard tsunami assessment to support spatial planning. Also, local authorities must be able to act towards the population protection in a preemptive way, to inform 'what to do' and 'where to go' and in an alarm, to make people aware of the incoming danger. With this in mind, we investigated the inundation extent, run-up and water depths, of a 1755-like event on the region of Huelva, located on the Spanish southwestern coast, one of the regions that was affected in the past by several high energy events, as proved by historical documents and sedimentological data. Modelling was made with a slightly modified version of the COMCOT (Cornell Multi-grid Coupled Tsunami Model) code. Sensitivity tests were performed for a single source in order to understand the relevance and influence of the source parameters in the inundation extent and the fundamental impact parameters. We show that a 1755-like event will have a dramatic impact in a large area close to Huelva inundating an area between 82 and 92 km(2) and reaching maximum run-up around 5 m. In this sense our results show that small variations on the characteristics of the tsunami source are not too significant for the impact assessment. We show that the maximum flow depth and the maximum run-up increase with the average slip on the source, while the strike of the fault is not a critical factor as Huelva is significantly far away from the potential sources identified up to now. We also show that the maximum flow depth within the inundated area is very dependent on the tidal level, while maximum run-up is less affected, as a consequence of the complex morphology of the area.